MLB.com: AL East midterm analysis

[Carissa]

AL East midterm analysis
Yankees, Red Sox ready for another brouhaha
Tom Singer
http://yankees.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/ml...ives&fext=.jsp



In the long, heated and bitter history of the New York-Boston skirmish, this could develop into the best one yet. The AL East Division's elite teams are so classically matched, such opposite sides of the coin -- and so high-strung to beat each other -- second-half emotions may go off the scale.

It's Boston's bottomless attack against New York's deep pitching, and beyond that, subplots abound. Roger Clemens threatens to "do something" about the comfortable Red Sox hitters, but Pedro Martinez is the one pinballing pitches off Alfonso Soriano and Derek Jeter. Hideki Matsui, who jilted the Red Sox, leads the effort to beat them. Ramiro Mendoza is in the Boston rotation. Byung-Hyun Kim, victim of the ultimate Yankee Stadium psych during the 2001 World Series, now holds the hammer in the Boston bullpen.

And who yet knows how general managers Brian Cashman and Theo Epstein will arm-wrestle for pre-August reinforcements? Or how big of a role will befall Jose Contreras, whom the Red Sox wanted desperately enough last winter to buy out the Managua, Nicaragua, hotel where he was greeting suitors?

There really is no room at the inn, as far as this division is concerned. It belongs to the Red Sox-Yankees bloc. The Blue Jays tried to cut in -- hard to believe now, but they were six innings away from grabbing the lead on June 24 -- before an offensive downturn exposed some of their marginal pitching. The Orioles and Devil Rays have their days but ultimately end up pulling their hair out -- or, as in the case of Tampa Bay skipper Lou Piniella, just coloring it.


The AL East is also like that catchy ditty you can't get out of your mind. It goes ... "Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Devil Rays." Believe it or not, the teams have finished in that exact order every season since 1998.

One big change is imminent. The Yanks won those five division titles by an average of 10 1/2 games, knocking the air out of the Red Sox. This time, they'll both fall into oxygen tents by the time their scramble ends.

Yankees (57-36)

No wonder manager Joe Torre always preaches that it begins and ends with pitching: Derek Jeter is sitting, Jason Giambi is struggling, Matsui is adjusting -- and the Yankees win 20 of their first 24 games; then when all those glitches are corrected, they lose 17 of 27. Just when that tailspin threatened to open up a new branch of the Bronx Zoo, the club reasserted itself.

However, the Yankees remain more vulnerable than in recent seasons. Their bench isn't as strong as it has been (rest a couple of starters, and what goes on the field is remarkably wimpy). Preseason concerns about a pair of 40-year-olds in the rotation were mocked by the first-half performances of Clemens and David Wells. But now is the time to be afraid ... be very afraid.

Grade: A-minus; triumphed over a lot of adversity.

Award candidate(s): OF Matsui, Rookie of the Year; hard to say this without a wink about someone virtually in the Japanese Hall of Fame, but rules are rules and his stats shout. 2B Soriano, MVP; not the same team without him. Torre, Manager of the Year; marvelous job managing the roster and his own emotions.

Remote control: Matsui stays in center field; much more assertive there defensively and, besides, covering less area in left would be kinder to Bernie Williams' legs. Insist Clemens enter the Hall of Fame in a Blue Jays cap. Remove Jeff Weaver from the rotation? Au Contreras.

Predicted finish: Second place in AL East, Wild Card winner, ALDS winner.

Red Sox (55-38)

Hitting has always been considered contagious but if you're talking epidemic, there's no way like the Fenway. The Sox's No. 9 hitter is an All-Star catcher on pace for a .300-30-100 season. GM Epstein was thought to have juiced the lineup over the winter with several upgrades, but in reality he got just one guy and cloned him four times -- they (Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, Todd Walker) are all hitting .296 it seems. Gabe Kapler is plucked off the waiver list and goes 7-for-9 in his first two Boston games.

Oh, did we mention the 24-karat studs, Nomar Garciaparra and Manny Ramirez? The Sox have already scored in double-figures 14 times, sometimes all in one inning. And you can bet on a stack of Bill James' Sabermetrics bibles, they do indeed have the Majors' best on-base percentage.

But not everything has gone according to plan. The closers committee has been committed, after seven different pitchers earned saves but also combined to blow 13 opportunities, leaving it in Kim's underhand. Also, 10 different pitchers have already started games. Boston's October fate rests in ending such chaos.

Grade: BB; for Beantown Bats, making their beautiful racket.

Award candidate(s): Theo Epstein, Executive of the Year; trade average even higher than acquisitions' batting averages.

Remote control: Ramirez gets a personal hair trainer. Versatile Tim Wakefield anchors as permanent long reliever (his knuckleballs between Martinez and Kim turn hitters cross-eyed). Roger Waters stages another revival of "The Wall" at ... The Wall (proceeds to Jimmy Fund).

Predicted finish: First place in AL East, AL pennant winner (over Yankees, because we can't get enough of these two).

Blue Jays (49-46)

A J.P. Ricciardi work-in-progress not really expected to peak for a couple of years, the Jays surprisingly found themselves staring the Yankees in the face at the end of June. And, boy, did they blink: One game out of first place with a 44-32 record on June 23, Toronto free-fell into the All-Star break.

The Jays have an oppressive offense, with Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells putting up the kind of RBI numbers rarely seen from teammates since the Murderers Row era of Gehrig & Ruth. But this wouldn't be the first knockout attack spoiled by spotty pitching. Call it the Texas Syndrome. Roy Halladay is a marvel, but the other starters can look lost without support; Cory Lidle actually became the AL's first 10-game winner -- because the Jays scored 82 runs in those 10 wins.

Grade: B-minus; coming on strong.

Award candidate(s): 1B Delgado, MVP; brace for another round of the also-ran-stat-monster vs. winning-impact-player debate. RHP Halladay, Cy Young; he has gone three months without losing. However, odds are against a parlay, since both major award winners have never come from a non-playoff team.

Remote control: Kelvim Escobar returns to the pen; closers are more critical than No. 4 starters. The turf goes. Offer Josh Phelps for some pitching help and break the news to him with, "Your mission, Mr. Phelps, should you choose to accept it ..."

Predicted finish: Third place in AL East

Orioles (41-50)

Sidney Ponson has finally pitched up to his ace potential, Jorge Julio has closed up to his scintillating rookie standards, and Melvin Mora has blossomed as a legitimate batting-crown challenger. And, still, the Birds enter the break in virtually the same shape as last season.

Not too hard to understand why, when the minuses negate the pluses. Injuries have wreaked havoc both on the mound (Scott Erickson, gone; Rodrigo Lopez, slowed) and in the lineup (Marty Cordova and David Segui have missed 117 games between them).

But the Orioles can be dangerous in stretches -- 65 runs in one 7-1 spurt at the end of May -- and can dictate the race's outcome by catching fire at the right time: They have 14 games remaining with Boston, 17 with the Yankees.

Grade: C; Mr. Angelos, your kids don't apply themselves.

Award candidate(s): 3B Tony Batista, Silver Slugger; you can talk about your Blalocks, Glauses and Chavezes, but leads at position in homers and RBIs. OF Mora, Comeback Player of Year; he'll doubtless get votes, even though there hasn't been anything for him to come back from, entering this season as a .249 career hitter.

Remote control: Run more; Jerry Hairston, Luis Matos, Brian Roberts are 38-for-48 in steals. Make sure Boog's BBQ is always upwind.

Predicted finish: Fourth place in AL East

Devil Rays (32-60)

The Rays' bottom line doesn't look much different than it did a year ago, but you can't discount Piniella's influence or his vision. He has begun to remold the team to suit his style and if he is allowed to stick with the makeover, it will bring fruit.

Cases in point are Rocco Baldelli and Carl Crawford, both of whom were thought too raw to survive in the Majors. But they're doing quite nicely, and getting their baptism at such a young age will pay huge dividends a couple of years down the road. Too little overall pop (Aubrey Huff is the only one with more than seven homers) and too little pitching (although Victor Zambrano is developing into a nice ace) detain the Rays.

But, really, they are not that far away. The fact that five out of every eight games thay play is a one- or two-run affair makes a strong statement about their competitiveness.

Grade: C-plus; being taken to school, for sure.

Award candidate(s): OF Baldelli, Rookie of the Year; a pure rook, putting up nice numbers in a lineup without much protection.

Remote control: Piniella shows up with his locks a different color every night, thus introducing mood-hair. Improve on the traditional take sign with handcuffs; last in walks, with no one in the 30s but Ben Grieve, who gets in trouble for being passive.

Predicted finish: Last place in AL East.

Tom Singer is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

[ACPS]

The Red Sox are going to the World Series and will WIN IT!!!! THIS IS THE YEAR, BABY!!!!!!!!!!!

[WindRavenX]

Sorry, I am not ignoring what history has taught me.
Yanks finish first.
They didn't have all the gears going for the first half, but boy, if they do for the second half, they will destroy the Sox.