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Old 02-07-02, 06:46 PM     #1
Bernie51
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Michelle Kwan and other skater

Is it me or does Michelle Kwan's possibility of winning a gold medal seem impossible? Unless Hughes or Butirskaya or even Cohen fall on their asses (which is not likely to happen, esp. with Hughes) Michelle probably won't even obtain the silver. All three skaters excel at one thing Michelle has trouble with. The triple/triple combo. Hughes just added another triple/triple combo and I am afraid that she can land those with ease. At the Olympics, if Cohen lands the quad, Hughes and Irina land the triple/triples, than there could be no gold for Michelle. Like I said before, she has always had trouble with those. Plus she's skating w/o a coach.
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Old 02-07-02, 07:28 PM     #2
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Don't sweat it Bernie51. Michelle has an excellent shot at the gold medal. Her only "real" threat right now is Irina Slutskaya of Russia who hasn't skated very well at her past few competitions.

I'll break it down for you (just my opinion, of course):

1. Michelle would have to fall asleep on the ice in order for Maria B. to beat her right now. Maria's nerves always get the best of her. If anything, she may have a chance at the bronze but I doubt she'll get anywhere near the gold medal.

2. Sarah Hughes may be trying two triple/triple combinations but that doesn't mean she's going to land them. She hasn't been landing them consistently this whole season. In addition, she's finally getting penalized for her flutzing and other jump cheats. Her coach changed the last couple of minutes of Sarah Hughes' long program especially for the Olympics because it was lacking excitement. People have been complaining that the ending to Sarah's long program is very similar to Michelle's. They're accusing her of ripping off Michelle's long program.

3. As far as your comment: "All three skaters excel at one thing Michelle has trouble with." Michelle also excels at things the other skaters have trouble with and taken as a whole, her skating is far superior overall to the other ladies, in my opinion. Sasha Cohen cheats her jumps, her spins travel a bit (although not as much as last year) and she skates very slowly (about as slow as my 85 year old grandmother). Plus, she skates on the flats of her blades most of the time and doesn't have deep edges which the judges look for. She has great extension and "poses" but many skaters could do the same thing if they sacrificed speed for "balletic moves." The International judges appreciate speed much more than extension which is one of the reasons Irina places above Michelle in many competitions. On another note, Sasha Cohen will not be attempting the quad during the Olympics according to her coach, John Nicks. She may have landed it in practice but that's about it. She's supposedly going for a clean skate rather than taking a chance on the quad. If she's so far out of medal contention after the short program, then she may go for it if she has nothing to lose. We'll have to see what happens. Her skating is nice to watch but it's not technically perfect. Her naming every other skating move after herself doesn't help endear her to me either (especially since she didn't really invent the moves).

4. Quote: "Like I said before, she has always had trouble with those." - meaning Michelle's triple/triples. Not true. Michelle has (or had before this season) a very consistent triple toe/triple toe. She's trying to up the ante with a triple lutz/triple loop which would give her higher technical marks than the triple toe/triple toe. In any case, all the ladies have been inconsistent with their triple/triples this year (Irina included) so that's a crap shoot. Irina's skating at Europeans was pretty ugly to see so you never know how she's going to skate. I heard she was skating well in practice but Michelle has beaten her at the World Championships the past two years because Michelle knows how to pace herself for the big competitions. Irina usually peaks early in the season and poops out near the end at big competitions (Worlds). That being said, I still think Irina is Michelle's biggest threat for the gold medal.

5. Quote: "Plus she's skating w/o a coach." As upset as I was when Michelle left Frank Carroll (I really like him), I think it's actually paying off for her. Michelle is the first skater to win U.S. Nationals without a coach since the 40's, I believe (I'm not exactly sure of the year). Plus, she's not skating so cautiously anymore and has been landing more difficult jump combinations such as the triple lutz/double loop rather than the easier triple lutz/double toe. Michelle usually peaks near the end of the season anyway and everything came together at U.S. Nationals. Skating cautiously and with no triple/triple is what cost her the gold in 1998 so I'm sure she doesn't want to make the same mistake again. She knows what she has to do to win. That doesn't guarantee she'll win (the ice is slippery and skaters make mistakes), but at least it won't be from lack of trying. I believe Frank Carroll has wanted Michelle to play it safe for the most part these last few years and I feel Michelle left him because she didn't want to be held back any longer. She knows she has to take risks and try harder jumps in order to get the marks from the International judges. She's a smart young lady.

My predictions for Olympic medals:

Gold - Michelle/Irina (this is anyone's guess)
Silver - Irina/Michelle (see above)
Bronze - Sarah Hughes/Fumie Suguri/Maria Butryskaya (this one's really a crap shoot)
4th Place - see bronze medal category
5th Place - see bronze medal category
6th Place - Sasha Cohen

Disclaimer: I don't really know what the heck will happen and where the skaters will end up since the ice is slippery and people fall, etc. The above predictions are subject to change after the Olympics.

Okay, I've rambled on enough already (I believe this is my longest post ever).
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Old 02-07-02, 08:28 PM     #3
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Wow, you really know your ice skating. I'm amazed by your knowledge. But I have one question. According to your predicitons, why do you think Sasha will be placed sixth if she came in second at nationals? Also, in my other post, I kind of got Maria and Irina mixed up. All those "kya's" mess me up.
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Old 02-07-02, 09:10 PM     #4
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U.S. Nationals results have no impact on International rankings. Sasha may be considered the #2 U.S. skater right now (which is still debatable because I think Sarah is the better skater even though her skating isn't as "pretty" as Sasha's), but that doesn't make her the #2 skater in the world.

For example, the #1 skaters from countries such as Romania or Croatia may be the best in their countries but when they compete in International competitions (Worlds/Olympics) they can place as low as 25th place or worse. That's why being #1 at a National competition has no bearing on an International competition (unless you're Michelle Kwan or Irina Slutskaya - then you really are the best).

As far as International rankings go, Michelle, Irina S., Maria B. and Sarah Hughes are above Sasha right now. Even Japan's Fumie Suguri is a better skater than Sasha "right now." However, anything can happen during the Olympics and hopefully the best skaters in each events will win despite whether or not they're the better all-around skater or not. If one of the better skaters turns into a human zamboni throughout the competition, then he/she should be placed according to that competition and not his/her reputation (it doesn't always work that way though). Sometimes skaters get "held up" on their reputation and not necessarily their actual skating in any given competition.

Also, during Nationals many skaters receive an excessive amount of 6.0 marks (sometimes deserved, sometimes not). Some countries like to hype-up their skaters before they compete in Worlds or Olympics to try to send a "message" to the International judges (this doesn't always work) or maybe psyche-out the competition.

Okay, I'm really rambling now. I don't even type messages this long about baseball and this is a baseball website.
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Old 02-07-02, 09:13 PM     #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bernie51
Also, in my other post, I kind of got Maria and Irina mixed up. All those "kya's" mess me up.

It's easier just to call Irina "Slute" and Maria "Bute" because I also have trouble with the Russians' names at times.
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Old 02-07-02, 10:41 PM     #6
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AMC , your figure skating knowledge is really impressive. I follow the sport too, and agree with all your assessments. Interestingly, I heard that Sarah's coach changed the lutz entry,(namely the direction she is skating in in relation to the judges' positions, plus the steps leading into the jump) to make it more difficult for the judges to get a good look at the edge. I guess the thinking is...if she flutzes, maybe they won't see it clearly!!

I agree with your placements, but you're right, anything can happen. I really can't wait.

P.S. I happen to really like Suguri.
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Old 02-07-02, 10:48 PM     #7
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Re: Michelle Kwan and other skater

Quote:
Originally posted by Bernie51
Plus she's skating w/o a coach.

But this seems to be quite liberating for her. She looked free as a bird at the Nationals. At this point in her career, going solo seemed to revive her enthusiasm somehow. I don't think the lack of a coach will factor in.

Remember, that women's skating is about more than just the technical elements, which as AMC pointed out, still have to be executed out there on the ice. Technically, they all have enough to win, but it's that extra something that comes into play too. Think back to Oksana Baiul over Kerrigan, for example. I am friends with some gold level judges who said it was Baiul's balletic style and exquisiteness that edged out Kerrigan's technicality. Michelle is the whole package, and if she skates like she did at Nationals, I think she could win. (I hope so!)
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Old 02-08-02, 02:51 PM     #8
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I just read the paper today and it talked about how Michelle might not attempt any triple/triple combos because she knows she is inconsistant with them. Overall skating or not, if she doesn't land them and someone like Sarah does, a gold isn't guaranteed for her.
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Old 02-08-02, 03:26 PM     #9
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I think the fight for gold will be between Kwan and Slutskaya. Butyrskaya can skate beautifully, but tends to fall apart under pressure. Hughes just isn't there yet--I think she will get there, but right now she lacks finesse, and if Kwan, Slutskaya and Butyrskaya are on, they will skate circles around her. The same for Sasha Cohen, although I think she is better than Sarah.
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Old 02-08-02, 03:36 PM     #10
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I've never run across people with this much figure skating knowlege. Now that I have your attention, let me ask the following.....

Should figures be put back into the comeptition? I know that they were eliminated several years ago.
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Old 02-08-02, 04:47 PM     #11
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Quote:
Originally posted by Winger03
Should figures be put back into the comeptition? I know that they were eliminated several years ago.

Personally, I'd rather not have figures put back in competition because not only are they boring for spectators (hehe), but the best skaters don't necessarily win competitions because of figures (for example, Janet Lynn). Some skaters had wonderful figures but their overall skating left a lot to be desired (Trixie Shuba) and they still wound up winning because skaters like Janet Lynn weren't very good at figures but excelled in the long program (frustrating).

On the other hand, figures really gave most skaters a lot of discipline and you can tell how figures helped them to develop wonderful edges in their skating (ex.: Brian Boitano, Brian Orser, Dorothy Hamill, etc.).

In any case, I doubt figures will ever be brought back.
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Old 02-08-02, 05:07 PM     #12
Bernie51
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All my posts have been filled with negative energy but I need to know one thing. If Michelle does not complete a triple/triple, but her overall presentation is gorgeous, will she still have a chance for the gold?
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Old 02-08-02, 06:28 PM     #13
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What are the lines from Vegas?
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Old 02-08-02, 07:43 PM     #14
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bernie51
All my posts have been filled with negative energy but I need to know one thing. If Michelle does not complete a triple/triple, but her overall presentation is gorgeous, will she still have a chance for the gold?

That depends on the other ladies. If no one else lands a triple/triple either, then most likely. If Irina lands a triple/triple (or two) and Michelle doesn't, then Irina will probably win depending on where she places in the short program. Then again, I may be surprised and someone else may win. That's the great thing (and the nerve-wracking thing) about figure skating: You never know who's going to win.
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Old 02-08-02, 07:45 PM     #15
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Originally posted by #1PaFan
What are the lines from Vegas?

LOL - I don't think Vegas cares one way or the other about figure skating. Like the general media, I don't think they have a clue about figure skating anyway. They probably can't tell an axel from a lutz.
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Old 02-08-02, 07:45 PM     #16
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I like Michelle Kwan. She has won like 5 straight World Championships (non-olympic) so I don't see why she hasn't got a shot at the Gold at Salt Lake!

:rolleyes:
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Old 02-08-02, 10:44 PM     #17
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Originally posted by SkooterPhil#10
I like Michelle Kwan. She has won like 5 straight World Championships (non-olympic) so I don't see why she hasn't got a shot at the Gold at Salt Lake!

:rolleyes:

Skooter -

Michelle has won 4 World Championships: 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2001. Of course she has an excellent shot at the gold medal but Irina Slutskaya has beaten Michelle in numerous competitions except the big one - the World Championships. When Irina skates clean and lands all of her jumps, the judges seem to favor her over Michelle so people have a reason to feel unsure of Michelle's chances (trust me on this one). I still like Michelle the best and feel that she's more of a "complete" skater than Irina, but the International judges appreciate Irina's jumps, fast and difficult spins and speed (she's faster than Michelle). On the other hand, Irina never seems to be able to put it all together at the World Championships so I'd say it's anyone's guess who will win the gold medal. Even if Vegas had a line on the ladies' event, I wouldn't bet money on this one. I thought Michelle was a lock in 1998 so I won't go down that road again (although I'm still hoping).
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Old 02-09-02, 08:26 AM     #18
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Just heard some news. That stupid bitch Cohen almost bumped into Kwan, AGAIN! Here's the article:

... Close again: Cohen received attention last month for bumping Kwan and getting in her path during their warm-up for the long program at the U.S. national championships.

During her first Olympic practice session Friday, she did it again.

As Kwan began to skate her Rachmaninoff short program at the Salt Lake Ice Center, Cohen appeared to look at her, then move toward her, getting about 5 feet in front of Kwan before moving out of the way. They did not bump one another. However, long-standing skating protocol says the skater who is performing his or her program has the right of way during that time and all other skaters should defer to them and make sure to be out of their path.

"When you're out there, you're not always going to be 50 feet apart," Cohen said afterward. "I was doing my jump. As soon as I finished it, I moved right out of her way. She didn't have to change her pattern."

Nicks said he saw nothing wrong with what Cohen did, adding, "She probably was near her."

She and Kwan, neither more than 5-foot-2 inches tall, were the only two skaters to show up for practice on the Olympic-size rink.
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Old 02-09-02, 10:14 AM     #19
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Quote:
Originally posted by Bernie51
I just read the paper today and it talked about how Michelle might not attempt any triple/triple combos because she knows she is inconsistant with them. Overall skating or not, if she doesn't land them and someone like Sarah does, a gold isn't guaranteed for her.

Just read on the NBC Olympics site that Michelle had a great short program practice session, and landed everything cleanly...including two triple-triple combos! So, looks to me like she'll be attempting them, and planning on landing them. Bern51, I think you should have confidence that technically Michelle will match, if not exceed, her competition, and if she does what she's capable of, she'll outshine everyone.

Did anyone watch the end of the Opening Ceremonies last night? Somehow Sasha Cohen wormed her way next to George W, & actually had the balls to hand him a cellphone & ask him to say hello! He looked taken aback for a split second, and then to my amazement actually took the phone from her and started talking into it. I couldn't believe it. That Sasha Cohen, she will stop at nothing to get what she wants. I pray she doesn't medal. (even tho I love her skating).
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Old 02-09-02, 10:36 PM     #20
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Did anyone watch the pairs short program today? I was dissapointed in Ina and Zimmerman. I was really hoping that they would at least get in 2nd place. They better do really, really well in the long program or they won't see a metal. By the way, is it me or is Zimmerman just incredibly handsome and beautiful? He's like a God.
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