Tangotiger's Community Forecasts

[Lucen]

Over at SoSH a link to Tangotiger's website was put up and a request for participation was put out. He's running a community projection and is looking for as many participants as he can get.

Simply click on this link: http://www.tangotiger.net/community/ then select your team and fill out the table. You can do more than your team if you like, and you only have to fill in the players you feel comfortable making projections for. This could be a very interesting project, so please take a few minutes to participate.

[hardrain]

This is a fantastic idea!

[iodon]

This is going to be like that Norman Rockwell painting where the butcher is pushing the scale down and the old lady is pushing it up.

Yankee Fans are going to project decent years for their team anrd then predict lousy years for the Sox. Sox fans are going to do the same thing in reverse. The end result will be somewhere in the middle, but it won't be as objective as you would like.

This experiement might work, but only for the teams that we don't have a vested interest in. So the six responses you will get for the Nationals will be unbiased.

[Lucen]

Originally Posted by iodon

This is going to be like that Norman Rockwell painting where the butcher is pushing the scale down and the old lady is pushing it up.

Yankee Fans are going to project decent years for their team anrd then predict lousy years for the Sox. Sox fans are going to do the same thing in reverse. The end result will be somewhere in the middle, but it won't be as objective as you would like.

This experiement might work, but only for the teams that we don't have a vested interest in. So the six responses you will get for the Nationals will be unbiased.

I think that kind of noise should be drowned out a bit. I imagine far more Red Sox fans will vote on the Sox than Yankees fans and vice versa. Yes, some will try to skew the ratings, but I doubt it will be enough to make a serious impact on the final results.

[iodon]

Originally Posted by Lucen

I think that kind of noise should be drowned out a bit. I imagine far more Red Sox fans will vote on the Sox than Yankees fans and vice versa. Yes, some will try to skew the ratings, but I doubt it will be enough to make a serious impact on the final results.

Looking at some of the preliminary results, it appears you are right. "Objectively", the Sox fans have projected 4 of their starters at 4.01 or better. For reference, Detroit starters had a 4.0 ERA, the best in baseball last year.

Maybe there should be some more Yankee fans participating to bring these numbers back down to earth.

[Lucen]

Originally Posted by iodon

Looking at some of the preliminary results, it appears you are right. "Objectively", the Sox fans have projected 4 of their starters at 4.01 or better. For reference, Detroit starters had a 4.0 ERA, the best in baseball last year.

Maybe there should be some more Yankee fans participating to bring these numbers back down to earth.

Yeah, I saw those numbers and posted in the SoSH thread about how those appear to be much closer to the "best case scenario" or "90th percentile" projections than anything else. I think some yankees fans taking a little time to even those projections out would be good for the results, heh.

I can see one or two of our pitchers being that good, but not all of them. If they're that good, the Sox should win 100 games, heh.

[ny]

Originally Posted by Lucen

I can see one or two of our pitchers being that good, but not all of them. If they're that good, the Sox should win 100 games, heh.

That would be quite a feat especially with that bullpen. When was the last time the Sawx won 100 games?

[Lucen]

Originally Posted by ny

That would be quite a feat especially with that bullpen. When was the last time the Sawx won 100 games?

Obviously it isn't very likely at all. Which is why I said it. I don't think the Sox rotation will post a 4.01 ERA this year. I figure it'll be closer to 4.45 or 4.5 when all is said and done.

With the positional players, it appears Sox fans are more realistic, but for some reason, many of my brethren appear to have some very rosy glasses on when looking at the rotation.

As for the pen, yeah, it's not looking good at all. But the projection was for the rotation only.

[Sam18]

JDP ought to sue.

[Powerfam]

Originally Posted by Sam18

JDP ought to sue.

It's not quite the same thing, but somewhat similiar. The point, I beleive ,is to compare the community projections with those from experts or more robust projection systems. USSMariner and Lookout Landing are doing something similar for the mariners. Dave at USSMariner has a good explanation here

[tangotiger]

For those that participated in the community forecast, you may also be interested in the Fielding Scouting Report that I'm running:
http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/

Tom

[hunter05]

Hah, reading this thread is humorous. The Sox staff as a whole has an era of 3.71.

Edit: And COULD win 100, if they get really hot down the stretch, but they're on pace for about 98.

[tangotiger]

Fans' Scouting Report – Results

http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/s...sults2007.html

Thanks to all who participated.

[Lucen]

Just took a look and the Sox ended up with a 3.87 team ERA this season. The starters posted a 4.21 ERA and the bullpen ended up at 3.10, which I doubt many of us would have predicted to start the season. Most of us thought the bullpen was a huge question mark and likely a weakness.

Interesting how off we ended up being, hehe.