The NFL: Week # 8

[RIyankee]

WEEK 8

DPR: Defensive Passer Rating
YPA: Offense Passing Yards Per Attempt (includes sacks and yds lost)
RI: Run Index (The AVG rankings of 3 run metrics: Rush YDS Per Game, the combination of Rush TDs & Rush 1stDs, and YPC. For example: if a team ranks 4th in Rush YDS/Game, 5th in TDs & 1stDs, and 12th in YPC, that team will have a Run Index of 7.00)
DRI: Run Index (defense)

Sunday, Oct. 29

Arizona at Green Bay 1:00 p.m.
When the Cardinals have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Arizona 31.67 (32nd)
DRI: Green Bay 10.67 (10th)
Advantage: Packers
Passing:
YPA: Arizona 5.71 (22nd)
DPR: Green Bay 91.3 (25th)
Advantage: EVEN
When the Packers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Green Bay 19.00 (T-17th)
DRI: Arizona 18.67 (T-19th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Green Bay 5.78 (20th)
DPR: Arizona 71.3 (8th)
Advantage: Cardinals
Intangibles: Green Bay is showing signs of life. I don't care what the Dolphins record is. Putting up 34 points at Miami is impressive. Green Bay's schedule is too daunting for a playoff run, but the Pack will post an upset or two before the year is over. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are an absolute mess.
Packers 23-16

Atlanta at Cincinnati 1:00 p.m.
When the Falcons have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Atlanta 1.00 (1st)
DRI: Cincinnati 27.67 (T-28th)
Advantage: Falcons
Passing:
YPA: Atlanta 4.77 (30th)
DPR: Cincinnati 68.7 (6th)
Advantage: Bengals
When the Bengals have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Cincinnati 20.00 (20th)
DRI: Atlanta 13.67 (13th)
Advantage: Falcons
Passing:
YPA: Cincinnati 6.00 (15th)
DPR: Atlanta 75.8 (12th)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: Both teams narrowly escaped defeat last week. I doubt Vick will repeat his performance on the road. Injuries are crippling the Falcons defense.
Bengals 35-14

Baltimore at New Orleans 1:00 p.m.
When the Ravens have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Baltimore 26.67 (29th)
DRI: New Orleans 21.00 (21st)
Advantage: Saints
Passing:
YPA: Baltimore 5.02 (28th)
DPR: New Orleans 83.2 (21st)
Advantage: Saints
When the Saints have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: New Orleans 19.00 (T-17th)
DRI: Baltimore 1.67 (1st)
Advantage: Ravens
Passing:
YPA: New Orleans 6.88 (4th)
DPR: Baltimore 59.8 (1st)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: Despite their lofty #1 ranking in defensive passer rating, Jake Delhomme and Co. shredded the Ravens secondary two weeks ago. The Saints have a dangerous passing game.
Saints 27-17

Houston at Tennessee 1:00 p.m.
When the Texans have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Houston 27.00 (30th)
DRI: Tennessee 31.00 (32nd)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Houston 5.97 (16th)
DPR: Tennessee 94.1 (28th)
Advantage: Texans
When the Titans have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Tennessee 12.67 (10th)
DRI: Houston 27.00 (27th)
Advantage: Titans
Passing:
YPA: Tennessee 5.17 (27th)
DPR: Houston 106.4 (31st)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: If you're living in Tennessee or Texas, then this game is the poster child for DirectTV.
Titans 20-17

Jacksonville at Philadelphia 1:00 p.m.
When the Jaguars have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Jacksonville 13.67 (12th)
DRI: Philadelphia 16.67 (16th)
Advantage: Jaguars
Passing:
YPA: Jacksonville 5.79 (19th)
DPR: Philadelphia 75.9 (14th)
Advantage: Eagles
When the Eagles have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Philadelphia 6.00 (6th)
DRI: Jacksonville 17.33 (17th)
Advantage: Eagles
Passing:
YPA: Philadelphia 7.83 (1st)
DPR: Jacksonville 69.7 (7th)
Advantage: Eagles
Intangibles: The Jaguars lost to Houston 27-7. Think about that. Philly won't lose 3 in a row. Jack Del Rio could be on the hot seat.
Eagles 35-3

Seattle at Kansas City 1:00 p.m.
When the Seahawks have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Seattle 20.67 (21st)
DRI: Kansas City 22.67 (23rd)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Seattle 5.46 (23rd)
DPR: Kansas City 82.9 (19th)
Advantage: Chiefs
When the Chiefs have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Kansas City 23.33 (26th)
DRI: Seattle 11.00 (11th)
Advantage: Seahawks
Passing:
YPA: Kansas City 5.89 (17th)
DPR: Seattle 92.2 (26th)
Advantage: Chiefs
Intangibles: As long as Seneca is behind center, the Seahawks are in trouble.
Chiefs 31-10

San Francisco at Chicago 1:00 p.m.
When the 49ers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: San Francisco 9.33 (8th)
DRI: Chicago 2.67 (T-2nd)
Advantage: Bears
Passing:
YPA: San Francisco 6.18 (11th)
DPR: Chicago 65.5 (2nd)
Advantage: Bears
When the Bears have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Chicago 23.00 (T-24th)
DRI: San Francisco 23.00 (T-24th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Chicago 6.72 (5th)
DPR: San Francisco 98.9 (29th)
Advantage: Bears
Intangibles: Look for Grossman to rebound from a awful performance in the desert. The Niners have one of the worst passing defenses in the league.
Bears 30-6

Tampa Bay at NY Giants 1:00 p.m.
When the Buccaneers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Tampa Bay 21.33 (22nd)
DRI: NY Giants 18.00 (T-17th)
Advantage: Giants
Passing:
YPA: Tampa Bay 4.69 (31st)
DPR: NY Giants 79.6 (17th)
Advantage: Giants
When the Giants have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: NY Giants 2.67 (2nd)
DRI: Tampa Bay 29.33 (30th)
Advantage: Giants
Passing:
YPA: NY Giants 6.62 (6th)
DPR: Tampa Bay 89.0 (23rd)
Advantage: Giants
Intangibles: The Bucs will need more than a 62-yard FG to beat the Giants on the road. The G-men must guard against a letdown.
Giants 21-10

St. Louis at San Diego 4:05 p.m.
When the Rams have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: St. Louis 24.00 (28th)
DRI: San Diego 10.33 (9th)
Advantage: Chargers
Passing:
YPA: St. Louis 6.53 (7th)
DPR: San Diego 68.1 (5th)
Advantage: EVEN
When the Chargers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: San Diego 4.67 (3rd)
DRI: St. Louis 23.00 (T-24th)
Advantage: Chargers
Passing:
YPA: San Diego 6.46 (8th)
DPR: St. Louis 77.9 (15th)
Advantage: Chargers
Intangibles: This will be a high scoring affair. Loss of Merriman hurts SD.
Chargers 31-28

Indianapolis at Denver 4:15 p.m.
When the Colts have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Indianapolis 13.33 (11th)
DRI: Denver 5.67 (6th)
Advantage: Broncos
Passing:
YPA: Indianapolis 7.38 (2nd)
DPR: Denver 67.0 (3rd)
Advantage: Colts
When the Broncos have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Denver 6.33 (7th)
DRI: Indianapolis 30.33 (31st)
Advantage: Broncos
Passing:
YPA: Denver 5.17 (26th)
DPR: Indianapolis 89.1 (24th)
Advantage: Colts
Intangibles: Jake Plummer's job might be on the line. He must show Shanny that he can play well against an elite team. ESPN quoted a source that said if Jake can't beat the Colts and Steelers in midseason, he won't beat them in the playoffs. First meeting between the teams since the 2004 AFC 1st round playoffs. Denver's secondary has made a few changes since then. We'll see how they will work out.
Colts 28-21

NY Jets at Cleveland 4:15 p.m.
When the Jets have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: NY Jets 14.67 (T-14th)
DRI: Cleveland 24.00 (26th)
Advantage: Jets
Passing:
YPA: NY Jets 6.38 (9th)
DPR: Cleveland 71.9 (9th)
Advantage: EVEN
When the Browns have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Cleveland 28.00 (31st)
DRI: NY Jets 27.67 (T-28th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Cleveland 4.78 (29th)
DPR: NY Jets 75.8 (13th)
Advantage: Jets
Intangibles: The Browns have a new coordinator this week.
Jets 17-13

Pittsburgh at Oakland 4:15 p.m.
When the Steelers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Pittsburgh 14.67 (T-14th)
DRI: Oakland 18.00 (T-17th)
Advantage: Steelers
Passing:
YPA: Pittsburgh 6.89 (3rd)
DPR: Oakland 78.3 (16th)
Advantage: Steelers
When the Raiders have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Oakland 14.00 (13th)
DRI: Pittsburgh 7.67 (7th)
Advantage: Steelers
Passing:
YPA: Oakland 4.40 (32nd)
DPR: Pittsburgh 72.9 (10th)
Advantage: Steelers
Intangibles: The Steelers let one slip away in Atlanta last week. They'll take out their fustration on the Raiders this week.
Steelers 27-3

Dallas at Carolina 8:15 p.m.
When the Cowboys have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Dallas 5.33 (4th)
DRI: Carolina 18.67 (T-19th)
Advantage: Cowboys
Passing:
YPA: Dallas 6.13 (12th)
DPR: Carolina 83.0 (20th)
Advantage: Cowboys
When the Panthers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Carolina 19.33 (19th)
DRI: Dallas 5.33 (5th)
Advantage: Cowboys
Passing:
YPA: Carolina 5.76 (21st)
DPR: Dallas 73.0 (11th)
Advantage: Cowboys
Intangibles: Statistically, Dallas dominates. The keys are turnovers and stopping the Carolina passing game. However, a DE like Julius Peppers against a weak Dallas RT can make stats meaningless. Tony Romo gets the nod this week.
Panthers 24-17

Monday, Oct. 30

New England at Minnesota 8:30 p.m.
When the Patriots have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: New England 11.67 (9th)
DRI: Minnesota 2.67 (T-2nd)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: New England 5.86 (18th)
DPR: Minnesota 67.7 (4th)
Advantage: Vikings
When the Vikings have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Minnesota 17.33 (16th)
DRI: New England 4.67 (4th)
Advantage: Patriots
Passing:
YPA: Minnesota 6.10 (13th)
DPR: New England 80.5 (18th)
Advantage: Vikings
Intangibles: The Vikings # 2 DRI ranking is deceptive. The highest ranked RI opponent, outside of the # 5 ranked Redskins was Carolina at 19th in RI. The Vikings played Washington on week #1, when Portis wasn't fully recovered from a shoulder injury. The Pats will be a stern test for the Vikings run defense. The Pats might not have Seymour for MNF. Moreover, New England has to prepare for Indy on a short week.
Vikings 24-14

Open date: Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, Washington

[pjfan]

Originally Posted by RIyankee

WEEK 8

Intangibles: The Vikings # 2 DRI ranking is deceptive. The highest ranked RI opponent, outside of the # 5 ranked Redskins was Carolina at 19th in RI. The Vikings played Washington on week #1, when Portis wasn't fully recovered from a shoulder injury. The Pats will be a stern test for the Vikings run defense. The Pats might not have Seymour for MNF. Moreover, New England has to prepare for Indy on a short week.
Vikings 24-14

Are you implying that the Pats are going to be looking ahead to preparing for Indy rather than be ready for the Vikes?

[Kulish29]

Philly has been allowing 21 pts/game and Jacksonville has been scoring 20.8 pts/game. I think Philly will win, but, they're not going to win 35-3. No way in hell. Their D simply is not that good.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by pjfan

Are you implying that the Pats are going to be looking ahead to preparing for Indy rather than be ready for the Vikes?

The Vikes are a good team. A very good team. Brad Johnson is a very good, perhaps great, QB. The Vikes can throw a deep ball and have an excellent O-line. Seymour likely won't play, despite his practice appearances. The Pats won't win every game they play. This isn't the '03-'04 Pats. The Pats defense didn't impress me last week. If not for Losman's carelessness (2 INTs, 2 FLs) the Pats would have been in a dogfight.

BTW, Did you see the Vikes stats? I didn't post them for my health .They don't suck.

This game will be a tough one for Brady and Co.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by Kulish29

Philly has been allowing 21 pts/game and Jacksonville has been scoring 20.8 pts/game. I think Philly will win, but, they're not going to win 35-3. No way in hell. Their D simply is not that good.

Neither is the Texans. Yet they scored 27 points against the Jags last week.

I've been told by Redskins fans that their offense sucks, yet they put up 36 against the Jags D.

Philly's offense is better than Houston's and Washington's.

NOTE: Leftwich is benched. Garrard will start.

[TheBamTino24]

RIyankee, the differences I have with your picks in my Pickem' league are as follows:

1. Arizona over Green Bay. Sooner or later the Cardinals have to snap out of their funk and maybe it comes this weekend. I think Edgerrin James will finally have a 100 yard game. The Cardinals have way more talent than a 1-7 record at the half way point.

2. Houston over Tennesee. The Texans' offense has actually been decent this year and I think David Carr, Andre Johnson, Eric Mounds and Wali Lundy will be too much.

3. Dallas over Carolina. This goes in the face of all statistical analysis or even what I've witnessed from both teams recently. However, I'm playing that "desperate" team card. I'm interested to see how Terrance Newman, Roy Williams, Anthony Henry and the rest of that talented Dallas secondary deals with Steve Smith. And with the revelations about Shawn Merriman, is Cowboy Demarcus Ware the best LB in the NFL?

[pjfan]

Originally Posted by RIyankee

The Vikes are a good team. A very good team. Brad Johnson is a very good, perhaps great, QB. The Vikes can throw a deep ball and have an excellent O-line. Seymour likely won't play, despite his practice appearances. The Pats won't win every game they play. This isn't the '03-'04 Pats. The Pats defense didn't impress me last week. If not for Losman's carelessness (2 INTs, 2 FLs) the Pats would have been in a dogfight.

BTW, Did you see the Vikes stats? I didn't post them for my health .They don't suck.

This game will be a tough one for Brady and Co.

I don't doubt the Vikes are a good team. I've seen bits and pieces of their games this year, and I did check out your stats....well done I also don't expect the Pats to win every game either.

However, I was just wondering if you thought that the Pats looking ahead to the Indy game as being on of the reasons the Vikes would win.

I also mentioned the deep ball being a concern in an earlier thread. However, with Robinson likely out, and Williamson suffering a concussion last week (probable), this may not be as big a threat as we thought.

My biggest concern is playing in the dome. It'll be loud and crazy. Hopefully they have worked on the silent count all week.

I see a W on Monday night, but admittably, you're far more knowlegable than I am.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by pjfan

I see a W on Monday night, but admittably, you're far more knowlegable than I am.

I guess you didn't see last week's picks!

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by TheBamTino24

1. Arizona over Green Bay. Sooner or later the Cardinals have to snap out of their funk and maybe it comes this weekend. I think Edgerrin James will finally have a 100 yard game. The Cardinals have way more talent than a 1-7 record at the half way point.

Any chance the Cards have of winning this game rests on the aerial game for both sides of the ball. If Fitzgerald is healthy, and Favre reverts to his INT-throwing self, I think the Cards have a chance. James struggles originate from his pathetic O-line. The Packers run D is underrated. If Edge has a 100-yard game, it won't be this week.

Originally Posted by TheBamTino24

2. Houston over Tennesee. The Texans' offense has actually been decent this year and I think David Carr, Andre Johnson, Eric Mounds and Wali Lundy will be too much.

The Texans passing game has been decent. Their running game is one of the NFL's worst. Lundy had one great game against a Jags team that looked like it was packing it in. The Titans also have an underrated run D. Moreover, the Titans have been playing good ball over the last two weeks: losing 14-13 at Indy and beating the Skins at Washington. I think it will be a close game.

Originally Posted by TheBamTino24

3. Dallas over Carolina. This goes in the face of all statistical analysis or even what I've witnessed from both teams recently. However, I'm playing that "desperate" team card. I'm interested to see how Terrance Newman, Roy Williams, Anthony Henry and the rest of that talented Dallas secondary deals with Steve Smith. And with the revelations about Shawn Merriman, is Cowboy Demarcus Ware the best LB in the NFL?

Dallas is the most overrated team in the NFL. They were exposed for the frauds they are by the Giants on MNF. Carolina is also coming off a loss. Starting next week, I will include Quality Records in the game stats. QR can trump most other stats. Since the season will reach it's midpoint next week, there will be a sufficient sample to apply the QR of each team.

As for Dallas, they are 3-3, but they are 0-2 against Quality Teams (teams above .500). Carolina, 4-3, has had a brutal schedule and are 2-3 vs Quality teams. Bottom Line: Dallas might keep this one close, but I don't see them having any chance to win this game.

[S2]

Originally Posted by RIyankee

Indianapolis at Denver 4:15 p.m.
When the Colts have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Indianapolis 13.33 (11th)
DRI: Denver 5.67 (6th)
Advantage: Broncos
Passing:
YPA: Indianapolis 7.38 (2nd)
DPR: Denver 67.0 (3rd)
Advantage: Colts
When the Broncos have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Denver 6.33 (7th)
DRI: Indianapolis 30.33 (31st)
Advantage: Broncos
Passing:
YPA: Denver 5.17 (26th)
DPR: Indianapolis 89.1 (24th)
Advantage: Colts
Intangibles: Jake Plummer's job might be on the line. He must show Shanny that he can play well against an elite team. ESPN quoted a source that said if Jake can't beat the Colts and Steelers in midseason, he won't beat them in the playoffs. First meeting between the teams since the 2004 AFC 1st round playoffs. Denver's secondary has made a few changes since then. We'll see how they will work out.
Colts 28-21

Picking the Colts again?

And I actually want the Colts to win, so that when the Pats beat the Colts, they will own the best record in the AFC.

[dabomb2045]

Mark picking the Colts to win in Denver??? Color me surprised

[161 and River Ave.]

Anyone see the Chad Johnson interview. If you haven't, I suggest you head over to the bengals website, click multimedia, and Chad Johnson. Absolutely Hilarious. He is GREAT for the NFL I don't care what the stiffs think

[Pepper03]

Originally Posted by dabomb2045

Mark picking the Colts to win in Denver??? Color me surprised

Denver hasn't done much against the Colts in recent history.

[#1PaFan]

Originally Posted by dabomb2045

Mark picking the Colts to win in Denver??? Color me surprised

The Colt D is pretty banged up. From The Guru:

Colt DT Montae Reagor (face) had surgery Wednesday to repair a cracked
orbital bone and is out for Week Eight. SS Mike Doss (knee) is out for the
season with a torn ACL. FS Bob Sanders (knee) is questionable for Sunday's
game. These players are all listed as questionable: LB Keith O'Neil
(ankle); DE Ryan LaCasse (foot); DT Dan Klecko (back); CB Nicholas Harper
(ribs); LB Gilbert Gardner (thumb); DE Dwight Freeney (shoulder); DT
Raheem Brock (elbow); DT Darrell Reid (chest); and DE Josh Thomas (ankle).

[#1PaFan]

Originally Posted by 161 and River Ave.

Anyone see the Chad Johnson interview. If you haven't, I suggest you head over to the bengals website, click multimedia, and Chad Johnson. Absolutely Hilarious. He is GREAT for the NFL I don't care what the stiffs think

My opinion of #85 has gone up in recent months. I had trouble opening that interview; it crashed my browser. I'll try it again later.

[TheBamTino24]

Originally Posted by 161 and River Ave.

Anyone see the Chad Johnson interview. If you haven't, I suggest you head over to the bengals website, click multimedia, and Chad Johnson. Absolutely Hilarious. He is GREAT for the NFL I don't care what the stiffs think

I agree. I don't put him into the TO distraction type of category. He's the opposite from what I've seen.

[#1PaFan]

Originally Posted by TheBamTino24

I agree. I don't put him into the TO distraction type of category. He's the opposite from what I've seen.

Agreed. He's nothing like TO. He's really cracked me up a few times.

[dabomb2045]

Originally Posted by #1PaFan

Agreed. He's nothing like TO. He's really cracked me up a few times.

Agreed. Huge difference between TO and Chad. Chad seems like one of those guys who just likes to have fun and play around. He does his harmless TD dances. No big deal. He isnt a distraction, he doesnt show up his teammates on the sidelines, doesnt whine when he doesnt get a ball thrown his way on every play. He doesnt alienate his coaches or his QB's either.

[#1PaFan]

As for Dallas, they are 3-3, but they are 0-2 against Quality Teams (teams above .500). Carolina, 4-3, has had a brutal schedule and are 2-3 vs Quality teams. Bottom Line: Dallas might keep this one close, but I don't see them having any chance to win this game.

Agreed, and I'm typing that not just because the Crackboys make me vomit!

The Tainted Star has three wins. Those three wins came against the last place Washington Redskins (2-5), the last place Tennessee Titans (1-5) and the next-to-last Houston Texans (2-4), and the reason the Texans aren't in last is because of the Titans!

They lost to the 3-3 Jags in Week One and then got their felonious asses bitchslapped by the Eagles & G-Men.

There is still time to turn it around, obviously, but there's some problems there in little d.

[jlw1980]

Colts won't beat the Broncos at home.