The NFL: Week# 7

[RIyankee]

WEEK 7

DPR: Defensive Passer Rating
YPA: Offense Passing Yards Per Attempt (includes sacks and yds lost)
RI: Run Index (The AVG rankings of 3 run metrics: Rush YDS Per Game, the combination of Rush TDs & Rush 1stDs, and YPC. For example: if a team ranks 4th in Rush YDS/Game, 5th in TDs & 1stDs, and 12th in YPC, that team will have a Run Index of 7.00)
DRI: Run Index (defense)

Sunday, Oct. 22

Carolina at Cincinnati 1:00 p.m.
When the Panthers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Carolina 15.33 (T-14th)
DRI: Cincinnati 28.00 (30th)
Advantage: Carolina
Passing:
YPA: Carolina 5.74 (21st)
DPR: Cincinnati 65.0 (5th)
Advantage: Cincinnati
When the Bengals have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Cincinnati 18.67 (T-18th)
DRI: Carolina 18.00 (T-17th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Cincinnati 6.09 (13th)
DPR: Carolina 80.8 (17th)
Advantage: Cincinnati
Intangibles: Carolina was impressive in winning at Baltimore. Steve Smith is back to his old productive self. That's bad news for the Bengals, who appear to be imploding. Soon, it will be Chad Johnson exploding.
Panthers 31-28

Detroit at N.Y. Jets 1:00 p.m.
When the Lions have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Detroit 25.33 (T-28th)
DRI: N.Y. Jets 27.67 (T-28th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Detroit 5.88 (18th)
DPR: N.Y. Jets 73.5 (12th)
Advantage: NY Jets
When the Jets have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: N.Y. Jets 23.00 (25th)
DRI: Detroit 7.67 (9th)
Advantage: Detroit
Passing:
YPA: NY Jets 6.26 (9th)
DPR: Detroit 110.3 (31st)
Advantage: NY Jets
Intangibles: Look for the Jets to build momentum off the Miami win. Detriot will miss OL Damien Woody (IR) and DT Sean Jones (suspension). Pennington should rack up the numbers against one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
Jets 24-10

Green Bay at Miami 1:00 p.m.
When the Packers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Green Bay 25.00 (T-26th)
DRI: Miami 6.67 (T-6th)
Advantage: Miami
Passing:
YPA: Green Bay 5.89 (17th)
DPR: Miami 94.3 (28th)
Advantage: Green Bay
When the Dolphins have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Miami 20.00 (20th)
DRI: Green Bay 12.67 (13th)
Advantage: Green Bay
Passing:
YPA: Miami 5.27 (25th)
DPR: Green Bay 101.1 (30th)
Advantage: Miami
Intangibles: If Brett Favre can stop giving the ball to the opposition, the Packers might stand a chance in this game.
Dolphins 23-16

Jacksonville at Houston 1:00 p.m.
When the Jaguars have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Jacksonville 11.67 (13th)
DRI: Houston 27.67 (T-28th)
Advantage: Jacksonville
Passing:
YPA: Jacksonville 6.09 (12th)
DPR: Houston 113.7 (32nd)
Advantage: Jacksonville
When the Texans have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Houston 31.33 (32nd)
DRI: Jacksonville 9.67 (11th)
Advantage: Jacksonville
Passing:
YPA: Houston 5.92 (15th)
DPR: Jacksonville 60.1 (3rd)
Advantage: Jacksonville
Intangibles: The Jags have a tendency to play down to their opponents. Otherwise, I see an easy win for them.
Jaguars 34-20

New England at Buffalo 1:00 p.m.
When the Patriots have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: New England 8.00 (7th)
DRI: Buffalo 21.33 (T-20th)
Advantage: New England
Passing:
YPA: New England 5.92 (14th)
DPR: Buffalo 85.7 (22nd)
Advantage: New England
When the Bills have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Buffalo 17.33 (17th)
DRI: New England 6.67 (T-6th)
Advantage: New England
Passing:
YPA: Buffalo 5.00 (29th)
DPR: New England 82.0 (18th)
Advantage: New England
Intangibles: The Bills will be facing a better team than the one they faced on week 1. The Pats palyed poorly in that game, yet still won.
Patriots 21-13

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m.
When the Eagles have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Philadelphia 9.33 (9th)
DRI: Tampa Bay 26.67 (27th)
Advantage: Philadelphia
Passing:
YPA: Philadelphia 7.76 (1st)
DPR: Tampa Bay 90.4 (25th)
Advantage: Philadelphia
When the Buccaneers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Tampa Bay 20.67 (21st)
DRI: Philadelphia 16.67 (15th)
Advantage: Philadelphia
Passing:
YPA: Tampa Bay 4.92 (30th)
DPR: Philadelphia 77.6 (14th)
Advantage: Philadelphia
Intangibles: I don't see Philly losing 2 in a row. The Bucs will fall to earth this Sunday.
Eagles 38-14

Pittsburgh at Atlanta 1:00 p.m.
When the Steelers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Pittsburgh 8.67 (8th)
DRI: Atlanta 18.00 (T-17th)
Advantage: Pittsburgh
Passing:
YPA: Pittsburgh 5.92 (16th)
DPR: Atlanta 59.6 (1st)
Advantage: Atlanta
When the Falcons have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Atlanta 1.00 (1st)
DRI: Pittsburgh 5.67 (4th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Atlanta 4.19 (31st)
DPR: Pittsburgh 68.1 (8th)
Advantage: Pittsburgh
Intangibles: If the Falcons stick with Mike Vick for the season, they will finish at 7-9/8-8. The Falcons can't pass and the Steelers are excellent against the run. Moreover, Atlanta's run defense reverted to 2005 form against the Giants.
Steelers 24-7

San Diego at Kansas City 1:00 p.m.
When the Chargers have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: San Diego 4.33 (4th)
DRI: Kansas City 21.33 (T-20th)
Advantage: San Diego
Passing:
YPA: San Diego 6.84 (4th)
DPR: Kansas City 80.5 (16th)
Advantage: San Diego
When the Chiefs have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Kansas City 26.67 (30th)
DRI: San Diego 6.67 (T-6th)
Advantage: San Diego
Passing:
YPA: Kansas City 5.60 (22nd)
DPR: San Diego 60.7 (4th)
Advantage: San Diego
Intangibles: Like most overachievers, the Chiefs came back to reality last week. Unless Marty decides to sit on another lead, this game shouldn't be close.
Chargers 27-13

Denver at Cleveland 4:05 p.m.
When the Broncos have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Denver 6.33 (6th)
DRI: Cleveland 22.33 (T-23rd)
Advantage: Denver
Passing:
YPA: Denver 5.36 (24th)
DPR: Cleveland 76.9 (13th)
Advantage: Cleveland
When the Browns have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Cleveland 25.33 (T-28th)
DRI: Denver 10.33 (12th)
Advantage: Denver
Passing:
YPA: Cleveland 5.06 (27th)
DPR: Denver 67.1 (7th)
Advantage: Denver
Intangibles: I'll say this about the Browns, they play tough against superior foes. The key is to force Plummer to beat you. If the Browns succeed in doing this, a major upset could be at hand.
Broncos 13-12

Arizona at Oakland 4:15 p.m.
When the Cardinals have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Arizona 29.33 (31st)
DRI: Oakland 22.33 (T-23rd)
Advantage: Oakland
Passing:
YPA: Arizona 5.83 (20th)
DPR: Oakland 90.2 (24th)
Advantage: Arizona
When the Raiders have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Oakland 15.33 (T-14th)
DRI: Arizona 17.00 (16th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Oakland 3.86 (32nd)
DPR: Arizona 72.3 (11th)
Advantage: Arizona
Intangibles: I'm going with the intangibles by picking Oakland to win their first (only?) game. The Cards have a short week while playing on the road. Plus, the Cards might be shaken up MNF's giveaway.
Raiders 26-23

Minnesota at Seattle 4:15 p.m.
When the Vikings have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Minnesota 21.33 (22nd)
DRI: Seattle 8.33 (10th)
Advantage: Seattle
Passing:
YPA: Minnesota 6.21 (10th)
DPR: Seattle 89.3 (23rd)
Advantage: Minnesota
When the Seahawks have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Seattle 15.67 (16th)
DRI: Minnesota 6.00 (5th)
Advantage: Minnesota
Passing:
YPA: Seattle 5.54 (23rd)
DPR: Minnesota 70.1 (9th)
Advantage: Minnesota
Intangibles: Minnesota hasn't ran the ball effectively this year. Other that that, they are statistically stronger than Seattle in every way. The Vikings are the NFL's most underrated team in my opinion.
Vikings 24-17

Washington at Indianapolis 4:15 p.m.
When the Redskins have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Washington 6.00 (5th)
DRI: Indianapolis 31.00 (32nd)
Advantage: Washington
Passing:
YPA: Washington 6.58 (7th)
DPR: Indianapolis 84.2 (21st)
Advantage: Washington
When the Colts have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Indianapolis 11.33 (T-11th)
DRI: Washington 15.67 (14th)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: Indianapolis 6.90 (2nd)
DPR: Washington 94.1 (27th)
Advantage: Indianapolis
Intangibles: The Skins must win this game to have any reasonable chance of winning their division. The Colts have been winning ugly lately, but 5-0 is 5-0. The Skins can remove some of the shame from losing at home to the Titans by winning at Indy. If the Skins stay away from tunrovers and control the time of possession, they can win this game.
Redskins 20-17

Monday, Oct. 23

N.Y. Giants at Dallas 8:30 p.m.
When the Giants have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: N.Y. Giants 3.00 (2nd)
DRI: Dallas 3.33 (2nd)
Advantage: EVEN
Passing:
YPA: N.Y. Giants 6.68 (6th)
DPR: Dallas 71.9 (10th)
Advantage: NY Giants
When the Cowboys have the ball:
Rushing:
RI: Dallas 4.00 (3rd)
DRI: N.Y. Giants 19.33 (19th)
Advantage: Dallas
Passing:
YPA: Dallas 5.85 (19th)
DPR: NY Giants 83.8 (20th)
Advantage: EVEN
Intangibles: These two teams are evenly matched. The Giants are still struggling with penalties. It will be mistakes that will decide this contest.
Cowboys 34-27

Open date: Baltimore, Chicago, New Orleans, San Francisco, St. Louis, Tennessee

[NYYFAN]

Your hate for the Colts tends to cloud your good judgement at times...

[JeffWeaverFan]

Originally Posted by NYYFAN

Your hate for the Colts tends to cloud your good judgement at times...

I have to agree. The Skins didn't beat the Titans because they are a really bad football team. Their QB is horrendous... If the game was in Washington, I could see predicting the Skins winning, but to think they are going into the dome and beating Indy is just crazy. I don't see this one being close.

edit: Also, aren't the Skins having a ton of trouble on defense giving up the big offensive plays? I believe they have given the most 20+ yard plays in football... Manning is going to tear that defense apart.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by NYYFAN

Your hate for the Colts tends to cloud your good judgement at times...

It's the first time this season I didn't pick them.

The Redskins are a better team than they looked the last 2 weeks.

The Colts were lucky to win their last 2 games (Tennessee, Jags).

Also, the Redskins have a statistical edge over Indy, as I have shown.

[NYYFAN]

Indy at home with a bye to get ready...

[gdn]

Steelers coming back baby

[NYYFAN]

Originally Posted by gdn

Steelers coming back baby

Till they play another good team...

KC sucks...

[JeffWeaverFan]

Originally Posted by RIyankee

It's the first time this season I didn't pick them.

The Redskins are a better team than they looked the last 2 weeks.

The Colts were lucky to win their last 2 games (Tennessee, Jags).

Also, the Redskins have a statistical edge over Indy, as I have shown.

They were luckiest to beat the Jets.

And that's all fine and dandy if this game was in Washington. But there's no chance in hell Washington goes into Indy and beats the Colts.

[dabomb2045]

Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan

They were luckiest to beat the Jets.

And that's all fine and dandy if this game was in Washington. But there's no chance in hell Washington goes into Indy and beats the Colts.

Washington is a horrible team. They looked horrible last week at home against an even worse Tennessee team. They werent even competitive against the Giants.

Indy has their flaws, but I dont see how Washington wins.

[DaBoys4LifeNYY35]

Originally Posted by RIyankee

If the Skins stay away from tunrovers and control the time of possession, they can win this game.

No way, really? Staying away from turnovers and controlling T.O.P. wins games?!

[AMYanks]

I expect the Jets to outplay the Lions for 50 minutes and then let them back into the game in the last 10 minutes. 24-17 Jets.

[dabomb2045]

Originally Posted by AMYanks

I expect the Jets to outplay the Lions for 50 minutes and then let them back into the game in the last 10 minutes. 24-17 Jets.

Sounds about right. Really no reason they shouldnt win though. The Lions are horrible. We really should be 5-3 heading into the bye.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by DaBoys4LifeNYY35

No way, really? Staying away from turnovers and controlling T.O.P. wins games?!

Well Natalie, the Skins have a the 5th best running attack and the Colts have the worst rushing defense. TOP shouldn't be a problem. Turnovers, otoh...

BTW, I picked your team to win again.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by JeffWeaverFan

But there's no chance in hell Washington goes into Indy and beats the Colts.

That's another reason why I picked them to win. No one expects them to.

Moreover, the Skins know they can't afford a 2-5 start. Their backs are to the wall and need this game a lot more than Indy does.

[JeffWeaverFan]

Originally Posted by AMYanks

I expect the Jets to outplay the Lions for 50 minutes and then let them back into the game in the last 10 minutes. 24-17 Jets.

With their terrible pass defense and with them no longer having their big time DT, I expect us to score 30.

[gdn]

Originally Posted by NYYFAN

Till they play another good team...

KC sucks...

4th best defense...

[DaBoys4LifeNYY35]

Originally Posted by RIyankee

That's another reason why I picked them to win. No one expects them to.

Moreover, the Skins know they can't afford a 2-5 start. Their backs are to the wall and need this game a lot more than Indy does.

I like the following quote from the DJ Gallo column a few weeks back:

"One week after silencing their critics by putting up 36 points on a stingy Jacksonville defense, the Redskins silenced their supporters by scoring just three points against a lousy New York Giants defense. I like Washington's strategy of silencing everyone. Now they can concentrate on learning their 700-page playbook and finding a few plays that work in relative peace and quiet."

And then they top it off by losing to Tennessee. If they can lose to Tennessee, they can lose to anyone!

[TheBamTino24]

Nice work again, RI.

I'm really excited for the Giants/Cowboys MNF game. This is a big game for the Giants because it would enable them to reach 4-2 overall, 3-0 in the division, 4-1 against the NFC and boast road victories over contenders like Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas. And after watching how the team has performed the past two weeks, especially defensively, I really like them on Monday night. Dallas is a difficult place to play and their quick defenders will probably give Tiki Barber fits on his cutbacks. Plus, they have Flozell Adams lining up against Osi Umeniyora and will double team Michael Strahan on the other end, but the Giants have running some excellent interior stunts the past 2 weeks to free up Umeniyora through the middle. Blitzing the middle of that Dallas offensive line is where Philadelphia dominated them defensively.

I'm going NYG, 20-14 or something like that.

Other than that highlighted game, I like the Seahawks over the Vikings and I'm curious if Tampa Bay will give Philadelphia trouble. I would probably have to pick the Eagles given their blitzing schemes against that rookie QB, but I'm curious on that one. TB has played much better than their 1 win indicates.

[ojo]

wow. that's a lot of effort to blow apart your credibility by picking the skins over the colts.

peyton manning FEASTS on secondaries like washington's.

[RIyankee]

Originally Posted by ojo

wow. that's a lot of effort to blow apart your credibility by picking the skins over the colts.

peyton manning FEASTS on secondaries like washington's.

At least I picked Minny to win at Seattle.

The Redskins are much worse than I thought.