The 2006 AFL Thread

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

.378 is Pods career slugging not obp, hes got a career .342 obp. Pods really is lucky to be starting in MLB he is really a 4 outfielder at best.

I was talking about the .379 obp he put up in 03 with the Brewers. You said Gardner's OBP would be far far higher than anything Pods ever put up. Also, you haven't answered my questions about your Gardner predictions.

[spiritof27]

I was talking about the .379 obp he put up in 03 with the Brewers. You said Gardner's OBP would be far far higher than anything Pods ever put up. Also, you haven't answered my questions about your Gardner predictions.

The way I said it did leave a hole in my logic. However, my intent was to say that Gardner's OBP will be far superior to Podsednik's from an overall outlook. Podsednik's next highest OBP season was the .351 he put up in 2005. The 2003 season was obviously an outlier.

[MTYankee23]

I know everyone here is psyched about Gardner, but at 23, the highest full season OPS he posted in the minor leagues was .764. This is NOT the kind of hitter you want getting the most plate appearances if you're a contending American League team. Ideally, he's suited to be a 9th batter in the AL. Getting on base a ton with speed for the top of the order, and playing high caliber defense in CF. I would imagine that to be his ceiling and personally, if things go well the next few seasons, his profile would project to 4th OF.

[MTYankee23]

After looking at Butler's numbers I think the average might be too high, and the strikeouts are too low, but he does also look like a good comp. I'd say the two are at the high and low of the "what to expect" spectrum

Brett Gardner career minor league numbers: .293, .388, .372
Brett Butler career major league numbers: .290, .377, .376

Do you really think he'll stay that close to his minor league numbers?

Brett Butler's career minor league numbers:
.338 .462 .452. They started at the same age. The Braves then decided to be aggressive with him, and sent him to AAA and then the majors his 24 year old season.

Nothing in Gardner's line seems to indicate Brett Butler, even at his ceiling, which could be a problem. Again we're a large market AL team, I don't think this is the kind of hitter we want getting the most at-bats on our team. 9th batter fine, but I think if Brett Gardner is leading off for us for long periods of time, we're either in a serious managerial crisis or we're giving away a lot of runs.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

Brett Butler's career minor league numbers:
.338 .462 .452. They started at the same age. The Braves then decided to be aggressive with him, and sent him to AAA and then the majors his 24 year old season.

Nothing in Gardner's line seems to indicate Brett Butler, even at his ceiling, which could be a problem. Again we're a large market AL team, I don't think this is the kind of hitter we want getting the most at-bats on our team. 9th batter fine, but I think if Brett Gardner is leading off for us for long periods of time, we're either in a serious managerial crisis or we're giving away a lot of runs.

I agree with you. I've been saying he'll probably be a Podsednik type with the best case cenerio being a Brett Butler type. Thats why I brought up the fact that Gardner's minor league numbers are about on par with Butlers major league numbers. 9th hitter or 4th OFer seems realistic to me. Bret Butler type is possible, but if I had a gun to my head I wouldn't predict it.

[genius-24]

I know everyone here is psyched about Gardner, but at 23, the highest full season OPS he posted in the minor leagues was .764. This is NOT the kind of hitter you want getting the most plate appearances if you're a contending American League team. Ideally, he's suited to be a 9th batter in the AL. Getting on base a ton with speed for the top of the order, and playing high caliber defense in CF. I would imagine that to be his ceiling and personally, if things go well the next few seasons, his profile would project to 4th OF.

He is our david eckstein with tons of speed.

[MTYankee23]

He is our david eckstein with tons of speed.

Joe Morgan? Is that you?

I honestly can't tell if this is a complement or a knock on Gardner. Either way, it still cries out 9th hitter in the AL.

And even that isn't entirely true, since Eckstein is a middle infielder, making his lack of power more valuable, and had a career minor league OPS in the .800's.

Not to mention, Eckstein's playoff OPS is a dreadful .668, so that style of play, that everyone thinks would be so successful for us come the postseason, isn't necessarily the case.

[metalboy15]

Stats from today´s game (October 18th):

Brett Gardner: 0-3 with a BB and one run scored.

Eric Duncan: 2-4 with 2 RBI´s and one run scored.

T.J. Beam got the save, 1.1 IP 1 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 3 K

[genius-24]

Joe Morgan? Is that you?

I honestly can't tell if this is a complement or a knock on Gardner. Either way, it still cries out 9th hitter in the AL.

And even that isn't entirely true, since Eckstein is a middle infielder, making his lack of power more valuable, and had a career minor league OPS in the .800's.

Not to mention, Eckstein's playoff OPS is a dreadful .668, so that style of play, that everyone thinks would be so successful for us come the postseason, isn't necessarily the case.

A complement. compare his slugging and obp. I like this guy. I agree he can be good #9 hitter.

[Wade_Taylor]

Stats from today´s game (October 18th):

Brett Gardner: 0-3 with a BB and one run scored.

Eric Duncan: 2-4 with 2 RBI´s and one run scored.

T.J. Beam got the save, 1.1 IP 1 H 0 R 0 ER 1 BB 3 K

J.D. Bean pitching well again, its amazing that they let go of a talent like an Aaron Small in favor of him.

[Tony53]

I know everyone here is psyched about Gardner, but at 23, the highest full season OPS he posted in the minor leagues was .764. This is NOT the kind of hitter you want getting the most plate appearances if you're a contending American League team. Ideally, he's suited to be a 9th batter in the AL. Getting on base a ton with speed for the top of the order, and playing high caliber defense in CF. I would imagine that to be his ceiling and personally, if things go well the next few seasons, his profile would project to 4th OF.

You talk about him like he was drafted out of HS and has been playing for 5 years. He has 1.5 years of professional ball, part of which would have been spent adjusting to wood bats. If he can have a .370 - .380 OBP I think he can leadoff in the majors. To me, if he steals 50 -60 bases a year that's almost the same as adding 100 points to his OPS.

[genius-24]

J.D. Bean pitching well again, its amazing that they let go of a talent like an Aaron Small in favor of him.

who let go what

[mbn007]

I know everyone here is psyched about Gardner, but at 23, the highest full season OPS he posted in the minor leagues was .764. This is NOT the kind of hitter you want getting the most plate appearances if you're a contending American League team. Ideally, he's suited to be a 9th batter in the AL. Getting on base a ton with speed for the top of the order, and playing high caliber defense in CF. I would imagine that to be his ceiling and personally, if things go well the next few seasons, his profile would project to 4th OF.

Wait a minute about that age bit. Do you realize that he just completed his first full season in Professional ball, having been drafted in June 2005 out of College, at age 22?

So he is doing fine. No power, but tons of speed, excellent ball-hawking abilities, solid above average arm, and he gets on base. Sounds like a leadoff hitter to me.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

Wait a minute about that age bit. Do you realize that he just completed his first full season in Professional ball, having been drafted in June 2005 out of College, at age 22?

So he is doing fine. No power, but tons of speed, excellent ball-hawking abilities, solid above average arm, and he gets on base. Sounds like a leadoff hitter to me.

For some teams yes. On the Yankees where every hitter basically has a .370 obp or better he's going to have to show more than that.

[mbn007]

For some teams yes. On the Yankees where every hitter basically has a .370 obp or better he's going to have to show more than that.

His extra speed, solid arm, will get him there. I do agree that he needs to up that OBP to the .385-.390 range though, at least.

[MTYankee23]

A complement. compare his slugging and obp. I like this guy. I agree he can be good #9 hitter.

In that regard (#9 hitter or quality 4th OF) I completely agree with you. I'd love to see this type of player on the roster.

[MTYankee23]

Wait a minute about that age bit. Do you realize that he just completed his first full season in Professional ball, having been drafted in June 2005 out of College, at age 22?

So he is doing fine. No power, but tons of speed, excellent ball-hawking abilities, solid above average arm, and he gets on base. Sounds like a leadoff hitter to me.

The excellent ball-hawking ability, above average arm have absolutely nothing to do with what spot in the order he should hit. Again, I think he's a valuable prospect to have, and again, on an AL contending team that has the resources we do, ideally he's no more than an OF. I certainly don't want him getting more ABs than a Derek Jeter. The High OBP and tons of speed are certainly valuable, but you want the guy getting the most plate appearances to have a little more pop in his bat. I'd list Damon and Jeter as ideal leadoff types. Garnder fits the more "nostalgic" profile of a leadoff hitter.

As far as age goes, it certainly does matter. Think this way, Melky Cabrera is an entire year YOUNGER than Brett Gardner, and he's had basically a full season in the major leagues. Players that are drafted out of college are expected to be more advanced if anything. Again, using Butler as a barometer, they were in the exact same position upon being drafted (22 years old) and Butler's numbers were superior. Even at that, I probably wouldn't want Brett Butler leading off for an AL contender either.

[genius-24]

Brett can tremendously help the yankee bench. His flexibility, defence, speed, OBP and avrg are just amazing. In my opinion he can be a perfect fit.

[mhmajp]

Brett can tremendously help the yankee bench. His flexibility, defence, speed, OBP and avrg are just amazing. In my opinion he can be a perfect fit.

I agree. I think he could be anywhere from a 4th OF/Super OF utility type to a leadoff or number 9 hitter starting CF. Remember, few CF hit for much power.

[flymick24]

Remember, few CF hit for much power.

hmm....

[BomberBrian]

Good night so far for yankees.

Rasner got the start.

Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA
Rasner 	4.0	3	0	0	0	5	0	9.00

Henn came in to relieve him.

Henn 	2.0	1	0	0	0	5	0	3.60

Garder and Duncan are each 2-4 so far.

[gdn]

I really, really like Rasner.

[CallOfTheCrow]

& to think, the Nats gave up on him. One man's garbage can be another man's treasure.

[b_joseph]

The problem with Rasner, is that he no little margin for error.

But I like him also.

[genius-24]

wow, henn is turning it around.