The Potential of Robinson Cano

[HidekiIrabu]

Yea I remeber some nice opposite field hits during the playoffs, he has great potential

[Mr. Mxylsplk]

Good post. My hope is that Cano becomes at least a Willie Randolph type player in the sense that he is dependable and consistent over the course of many seasons. Anything beyond that would be gravy.

Man, if he could learn the plate discipline Willie had, he would be something else. I can't imagine he can become that patient, but one can dream.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Well, I wouldn't go that far, but he's not the type of player I like. He plays hard only when he wants to and seems to be unhappy too much of the time. What's worse though, is that he'll never be a big-spot success because he has some of that "Mr. May" syndrome....he eats up the normal pitching but craps the bed against the best, especially in pressure situations.

he probably would have been the 2001 WS mvp, not for mo.

remember that he did get a big hit versus schilling that game 7, giving the yanks the lead.

But trading him for alex was a great deal. Its hard to imagine we got arod for so little.

[keithf1]

Miguel Tejada is one of the 10 best players in baseball. Cano will probably be a very, very solid player if he develops some plate discipline.

What about Tejada's numbers or anything about his game last year makes him a top 10 player? He had 1 top 10 year.

[Yankeeah]

What about Tejada's numbers or anything about his game last year makes him a top 10 player? He had 1 top 10 year.

Which one year was that?
The year he put up 30 homers and 115 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 31 homers and 113 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 131 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 150 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?

Tejada is easily a top ten player

[TheTinoMobile]

The one's where he takes out the comb and makes his hair all nice and then puts it back in his pocket.

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

Which one year was that?
The year he put up 30 homers and 115 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 31 homers and 113 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 131 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?
The year he put up 34 homers and 150 RBI's, while playing top notch defense?

Tejada is easily a top ten player

Whats with the homers and RBIS? OPS is one of the best non saber stats to judge a player performance, that being said I have no clue what Tejada's OPS was in those years and Im too lazy to look them up.

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

OK im using Vorp because is factors in a players position.(and i was at baseball prospectus already)

2005: He ranked 12th
2004:14th
2003:28th
2002:20th
2001:54th

So he has been a very good player but not top 10, and again this factors in that he plays SS.

[dmsimon15]

The Yankees could possibly fill every position in the infield in 2006 at the All Star game in Pittsburgh. Cano and Jeter turned out to be an effective duo in turning double plays late in the season. But, Cano does need to step it up at second. If you can't field easy ground balls, who cares about what kind of range you have.

[ryanthe13th]

The only thing I am worried about with Cano is his defense, as many people have mentioned. Too many times, he made a ridiculously easy play turn into an error. Notables that come to mind is his thrown away ball in TB, that routine pop up that he just didn't catch vs Texas I believe, and I think he threw another ball away against Oakland that cost us the game.

His bat is solid, but I got a little tired of the comparisons that sports casters were making to Rod Carew. Don't you think it is a little premature to be comparing a rookie to Carew?

[homer2931]

My biggest worry is that his minor league line was .277/.330/.458, and that prOPS (which does have its flaws) has him at .280/.303/.416, and that predicts stats better than the actual stats do.

I think he's likely to have a sophmore slump in 06.

[pedromartinezfan]

So he has been a very good player but not top 10, and again this factors in that he plays SS.

But it doesn't factor in the quality of defense he plays at SS.

Miguel Tejada has 21.3 WARP3 the past two years. The short list of player than accompany him with 20 WARP:

Todd Helton (21.8)
Alex Rodriguez (21.6)
Albert Pujols (21.3)
Jim Edmonds (21.2)
Johan Santana (20.3)

If you can find anyone else, be my guest, but that's all I could come up with.

[JeterRodriguezSheff]

But it doesn't factor in the quality of defense he plays at SS.

Miguel Tejada has 21.3 WARP3 the past two years. The short list of player than accompany him with 20 WARP:

Todd Helton (21.8)
Alex Rodriguez (21.6)
Albert Pujols (21.3)
Jim Edmonds (21.2)
Johan Santana (20.3)

If you can find anyone else, be my guest, but that's all I could come up with.

fair enough. I just used Vorp because it was the easiest stat for me to access that factored in position.

[Wolf In Pinstripes]

Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.

[Dr. Gonzo]

My biggest worry is that his minor league line was .277/.330/.458, and that prOPS (which does have its flaws) has him at .280/.303/.416, and that predicts stats better than the actual stats do.

I think he's likely to have a sophmore slump in 06.

I agree, he will have to make adjustments.

[JavyVazquezIsSick]

Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.

Actually Cano put up better power numbers (SLG) in his first "full year" with the Yankees than Soriano did. (.432 vs. .458), as well as being 3 years younger at the same period. The thing is Soriano's SLG exploded his sophmore season to .547 but has never been as high since...

[mbn007]

Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.

I think Cano is more likely to be flirting with the .300 mark, while Sori, who always took wild swings at the low, outside stuff, is more in the .280 renge. Also, Cano will never steal the 30+ that Sori did, nor deliver close to 40 HRs, but he will hit a lot better on the road then Sori does (his contrast of Arlington vs. road is startling!!). Also, Robbie should get to the 20 HR mark, and stay there on a consistent basis. Remember, he was considered for a position change, as there was thought he would grow to big for 2B. So the power potential is there.

He will also be a better fielder then Sori, who never seemed to improve there. We will be fine with Robbie.

[YankeeStripes]

Cano reminds me of a young John Olerude (sp?)

Smooth swing. Drives the ball to all fields. Wont hit a lot of home runs cause his swing is so level. When he does hit homeruns, they are hit with a lot of topspin.

Johnny was a .320 20 80-90 guy. that would be excellent for Cano and the Yankees

[jimmykey2]

My biggest worry is that his minor league line was .277/.330/.458, and that prOPS (which does have its flaws) has him at .280/.303/.416, and that predicts stats better than the actual stats do.

I think he's likely to have a sophmore slump in 06.

What is that based on? I'd like to think a player who had the AL's 2nd highest BA in September and hit decently in the postseason shows no reason to expect a decline in his 2006 production.

[dkman]

Not sure if anybody's mentioned this yet, but I can personally say that Cano's emergence last year took a lot of the sting of losing Soriano away for me. We aren't likely to see the power numbers or SB's that Sori produced, but a young guy that can flirt with .300 in a rookie year where nobody expected anything out of him to begin with ... damn, that's not too shabby. I'll be watching Cano very closely this year to see how he follows up his '05 maiden voyage.

I think A-Rod's 48 home runs took the sting out of losing Soriano more then Cano. But I think Cano can be a more complete player then Soriano. I don't think he will ever take the ball the other way much because he is left handed.

[Sam18]

People were stung when we lost Soriano?

[gold23]

I think with Cano, you really need to accept what you see with your eyes as opposed to evaluating through numbers. Looking at the minor league numbers of a guy who was either young or relatively young for his league in almost every year of his short professional career, you need to look at his skill set. Projecting major league numbers out of what a 19-year old kid did in low A, or a 20-year old in AA, is certainly wrought with fault. Fact is, he more than held his own at each stop along the way, and has always been on the radar as a potentially very effective hitter.

He certainly needs to adjust- the main part being that he needs to improve his selection. I don't think he'll ever walk 75 times in a season, but simply picking the pitches he swings at during an at bat will help greatly.

A rookie 2B who drives the ball with authority to the opposite field is rare. It gives Cano an advantage in that he's not Soriano- there is no one way to pitch to him that will consistently get him out. He'll pull the inside pitch and drive the outside one to the gap in left center. Mattingly was the same type of hitter- more power than his body should have allowed, wasn't terribly patient, but hit the ball to all fields and with authority. Now, I am not saying Cano is Mattingly- but there are similarities in their styles.

I think Cano is going to develop into a consistently above average offensive player. Defensively, I see the skill set to be average to slightly above- but he needs to harness that with a dedication to his defense. His pivot is extremely quick already- possibly the quickest since Pat Kelly 10 years ago (Knoblauch for a smidge before his yips). But he is often lazy in the field- doesn't take the time to get into the correct position with his body or his glove, and air mails throws due to lack of after-the-play footwork.

[BJG]

18 - Rookie Ball
19 - Low A
20 - High A
21 - AA
22 - AAA

are expected ages for hitters per level. Cano spent parts of seasons a year young for his league, but the majority of each at the proper level. Regardless, guys like Benson and Blengino have long show that you can adjust minor league statistical analysis for age and come up with an accurate understanding of future potential.

[freebubba]

No question he was the highlight of the 2005 season for the Yanks (sorry A-Rod). Defensively, I think going into spring training with Jeter and A-Rod and seeing those guys work will be a tremendous experience for him. As far as hitting goes, we'll see how he progresses under the tutelage of Mattingly. A bit of a sophmore slump would not completely surprise me, but only in terms of BA. As someone else mentioned, for an impatient rookie, he did not strike out very much. That could be the most promising sign, IMO.

[gold23]

18 - Rookie Ball
19 - Low A
20 - High A
21 - AA
22 - AAA

are expected ages for hitters per level. Cano spent parts of seasons a year young for his league, but the majority of each at the proper level. Regardless, guys like Benson and Blengino have long show that you can adjust minor league statistical analysis for age and come up with an accurate understanding of future potential.

He didn't spend a lot of time at any level, and he improved greatly as he remained at a level. His stats at each level split in half from the first part to the second part of his tenure (I believe not counting AAA) were stark.

I absolutely agree that you can glean valuable information from minor league statistics- but in certain instances you do need to look past the numbers. I was fortunate enough to see Mattingly's actual internal scouting reports back in the early 80's, and have one of them framed and signed- it says that Mattingly should develop into a 25+ power hitter at the majors and in YS. There is a craft to scouting, and there are a bunch of players who you cannot evaluate solely on statistics. Cano's numbers are just those type- pretty good advancement for a prospect, always adjusting well to each level but never breaking out. The fact he broke out at a still very young age in the majors is not necessarily surprising for a talented hitter. In fact, had he put up very similar numbers at Columbus this year, I would bet many stat-driven people would think more highly of him, as they'd project numbers up to the majors as opposed to looking at his '05 year as a bit of a fluke.