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  1. #1
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    Playoff Odds Report (from BP)

    http://baseballprospectus.com/articl...articleid=3417

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...s/ps_odds.html

    a sample:

    W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs
    81 50 .565 99.1 62.9 69.94345 28.77599 98.71944 Yankees
    77 53 .638 96.9 65.1 30.05655 63.27652 93.33308 Red Sox

    "In our case, the random numbers control who wins or loses each game. We start the process by looking at the Adjusted Standings Report, updated daily on our stats page. From this report, we take away the current wins and losses, which will be our starting point for every iteration of the model. We also use the W3 and L3 scores for each team to set their expected winning percentage (EWP) for the remainder of the season. W3 is derived from the team's Pythagenport wins and losses, adjusted for, essentially, their strength of schedule, which we think is a better estimator of their future performance than their actual current record. "

    EDIT: I'm having trouble getting this table set up so you can actually read it. check out the original through the second link, and let me know if you can help me make tables in a post.

  2. #2
    Tables are a pain in the butt. Usually I use the STATS function and just preview reply until the table is lined up correctly. It usally takes a bit of time.
    Weaver's Fourth Law: Your [a manager's] most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

  3. #3
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    for the year i've been posting here, i never noticed the STATS function. amazing.

    great sig.

  4. #4
    Originally posted by WiffleWOOD
    for the year i've been posting here, i never noticed the STATS function. amazing.

    great sig.
    I didn't know there was a stats function until I saw someone else post using it. If you figure out a better way to format the table without previewing 50 times, let me know.
    Weaver's Fourth Law: Your [a manager's] most precious possessions on offense are your twenty-seven outs.

  5. #5
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...s/ps_odds.html

    It's gotten worse... right now, BP projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the division (51%) and gives us "only" a 96.6% chance at the playoffs.

    I can't believe this thing is right. Trailing by 2.5 games, the Red Sox are "favored" to win the AL East. Seems unlikely.

  6. #6
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    Originally posted by ComeToNYRandy
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...s/ps_odds.html

    It's gotten worse... right now, BP projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner of the division (51%) and gives us "only" a 96.6% chance at the playoffs.

    I can't believe this thing is right. Trailing by 2.5 games, the Red Sox are "favored" to win the AL East. Seems unlikely.

    It's been adjusted back...right now the NYY are division champs in 57%, while the Sox are champs in 42%.

  7. #7
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    it's now been adjusted back in favor of the Sox...

    Chances of winning the division:
    Sox 57%
    Yanks 43%

  8. #8
    Originally posted by DJnVa



    It's been adjusted back...right now the NYY are division champs in 57%, while the Sox are champs in 42%.
    It's been updated again and the Red Sox are now at 57% to win the division. Their method of determining the chance of winning future games is based on the teams run differential not on their current record. If you used current win% instead the Yankees would be at around 70-80%.

    I checked a couple of odds web sites and the current odds reflect a 70% chance of the Yankees taking the division. But that's just the opinions of people willing to put money on it.

  9. #9
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    Odds back in Yanks favor...

    Win the Division:
    Yanks 58%
    Sox 41%

  10. #10
    ...and now, it's basically even.

    NYY: 50.2%
    Bos: 49.8%

    Wow.

  11. #11
    Embedded Sox Fan
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    Too much math in baseball these days. I say right now, the yankees have a better chance of winning the division because they are in first and they have to win less games than the Red Sox. I'm not an anti-stathead by any measure, but sometimes it goes too far.

  12. #12
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    Division Champ:

    Yanks: 67%
    Sox: 33%

  13. #13
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    moving back to NY, sooner or later
    After that big loss yesterday, the chance of winning the division is down to 56%. It's interesting that one loss (when the Sox are idle) can make such a difference in the formula, but I suppose it's possible when there are so few games left to play.

  14. #14
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    as of morning of 9/15:

    Yankees: 68%
    Sox: 32%

    Obviously, all of this hinges on this weekend's series.

  15. #15
    And now, with both teams having won, it's:

    NYY: 74.5%
    Bos: 25.5%

    Both teams are over 99% to make the playoffs.

    Interestingly, it's the tightest divisional race, "odds"-wise.

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