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  1. #1
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    SI's Baseball Preview

    Has anyone read the articles regarding the Billy Beane/new school of thought regarding scouting. Am I the only one that's sick and tired of this Moneyball stuff? I pray that George nevers hires one of these analytical Gms. It's just funny that none of these Bill James gurus takes the "Big 3" into consideration when bragging about Oakland's success. Who by the way were signed before Beane took over the Oakland job. The other thing I find amusing about this these sabrematricians (sp?) is their belief that clutch hitters are nonexistent. Funny, how many playoff series has Oakland lost based on poor "clutch" performance.

  2. #2
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    Re: SI's Baseball Preview

    Originally posted by CyYoung4Vazquez
    Has anyone read the articles regarding the Billy Beane/new school of thought regarding scouting. Am I the only one that's sick and tired of this Moneyball stuff? I pray that George nevers hires one of these analytical Gms. It's just funny that none of these Bill James gurus takes the "Big 3" into consideration when bragging about Oakland's success. Who by the way were signed before Beane took over the Oakland job. The other thing I find amusing about this these sabrematricians (sp?) is their belief that clutch hitters are nonexistent. Funny, how many playoff series has Oakland lost based on poor "clutch" performance.
    I'm not really sick of it, because it does tend to work. I'm pretty sure that Beane did draft the big three, if not as GM, maybe as scout or Assistant GM, but he was definitely involved. Beane is the 2nd best GM in the majors, we all know who the first is

    I'm not a huge moneyball guy, but the Redsux have improved dramatically the last two years and the A's are always one of the best teams in the AL without spending much cash. I can't wait for two more years when Hudson is gone then one more season for the other two. And since Cashman is the best GM, i hope to see Las Vegas born Barry Zito in pinstripes in 2007.

  3. #3

    Re: SI's Baseball Preview

    Originally posted by CyYoung4Vazquez
    Has anyone read the articles regarding the Billy Beane/new school of thought regarding scouting. Am I the only one that's sick and tired of this Moneyball stuff? I pray that George nevers hires one of these analytical Gms. It's just funny that none of these Bill James gurus takes the "Big 3" into consideration when bragging about Oakland's success. Who by the way were signed before Beane took over the Oakland job. The other thing I find amusing about this these sabrematricians (sp?) is their belief that clutch hitters are nonexistent. Funny, how many playoff series has Oakland lost based on poor "clutch" performance.
    Beane might not have been the GM but Sandy Alderson his mentor in the sabremetric type scouting probably was in charge.

  4. #4
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    ZYanksRule's Avatar
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    You know what, I'd like to see a guy like this be the GM for us... this new thinking in baseball is the kind of thinkinh that wins you championships...


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    Re: SI's Baseball Preview

    Originally posted by CyYoung4Vazquez
    The other thing I find amusing about this these sabrematricians (sp?) is their belief that clutch hitters are nonexistent. Funny, how many playoff series has Oakland lost based on poor "clutch" performance.
    You have to remember, imo, that Beane works on a small market club in comparison to the Yankees and most championship winning teams in the past couple of years (Florida the most notable exception) and has no ability to sign many of its well developed players once they reach the free agent level. In this way, it must be remembered that while they have plenty of young talent waiting to take over, it takes a while for it to blossom.

    Therefore while Oakland will always put a good team on the field that has a chance of making the playoffs each and every year, it also loses the talent that was just beginning to bud and could have been the difference.

  6. #6
    2009 WORLD CHAMPIONS aeromac76's Avatar
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    I am always amazed at this Beane stuff.
    Moneyball this and that, how he is a genius.

    Gene Michael of the Yankees was preaching this quality to the Yankee teams of thearly 90's, and having it begin to take form, in 1994, well before Beane even cut his teeth as a premier front office man. I have no problems with Beane or his ideas or the stat people whose theories I can see somehwta being valid, but these ideas are hardly brand new or revolutionary. The Yankees were preaching this years and years ago, with guys like Boggs when he came here, and O'Neill and Mike Stanley. The Yankees of the mid-90's were always known as a high OBP team that used patience to win games at the plate by wearing out the opposition. Long before, I say again, Beane and his A's rounded into form with the same theories...

  7. #7

    which issue?

    I don't have a subscription to SI and the issue on newsstands now is the March 29th issue with the final four on the cover. Did I miss the baseball issue? Or did it just not make it to stores yet?

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    Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by AngelAstro
    I don't have a subscription to SI and the issue on newsstands now is the March 29th issue with the final four on the cover. Did I miss the baseball issue? Or did it just not make it to stores yet?
    Final Four was last week. If thats still out, then you must wait.

    Concerning clutch hitting, I find it hilarious that these guys think it doesn't exist because they can't quantify it. You can't come up with a catch-all to determine what is a pressure situatuation and what isn't. You'll know when you're watching. Its like the ostrich putting its head in the sand. If I can't see it, it doesn't exist.

  9. #9

    clutch hitting

    Here is a nice article summarizing why sabermetricians don't believe in clutch hitting:

    http://premium.baseballprospectus.c...?articleid=2656

    Basically, clutch hitting for a single player fluctuates from year to year. If one year a player is clutch, but the next year he isn't, what does that mean? Is he clutch or not? Or is clutch an ability that comes and goes?

    As for Beane's model for an offense, aeromac is right, the ideas are old, and Gene Michael was using them for the Yankee teams of the 90s. In fact, if you look at your 2004 New York Yankees, this would be the team that Billy Beane would make if he had the payroll of Steinbrenner. So I guess we will see if Moneyball works in the playoffs in six months.

  10. #10

    Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by Monkeyman


    Final Four was last week. If thats still out, then you must wait.

    Excellent, thanks.

  11. #11
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    Re: clutch hitting

    Originally posted by AngelAstro
    Here is a nice article summarizing why sabermetricians don't believe in clutch hitting:

    http://premium.baseballprospectus.c...?articleid=2656

    Basically, clutch hitting for a single player fluctuates from year to year. If one year a player is clutch, but the next year he isn't, what does that mean? Is he clutch or not? Or is clutch an ability that comes and goes?

    My point is that you can't quantify what is or is not clutch hitting. You can't say "all at-bats in situation X are 'clutch' at-bats" and then measure people's performances in them. Its such an arbitrary distinction. The only way to know which at-bats are key during the course of a game are to actually watch the game. Clutch hitting takes some subjective reasoning, which is why SABR guys hate it. James' argument against it : "How is it that a player who possesses the reflexes and the batting stroke and the knowledge and the experience to be a .260 hitter in other circumstances magically becomes a .300 hitter when the game is on the line? How does that happen? What is the process? What are the effects? Until we can answer these questions, I see little point in talking about clutch ability."

    Basically, he's saying he doesn't understand how it works, and he can't put together a formula, so he wants everyone to pretend it doesn't exist. The fact is, baseball players are human beings, not robots. Who knows what influences them? I used to have a good game playing lacrosse if I'd taken a big dump beforehand. Maybe some people simply can focus better in pressure situations. How can you say that isn't even possible? And to justify by inventing a formula that was invented to refute clutch hitting? That's objective statistical analysis? I doubt it.

  12. #12
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    Originally posted by ZYanksRule
    You know what, I'd like to see a guy like this be the GM for us... this new thinking in baseball is the kind of thinkinh that wins you championships...
    since when?

  13. #13
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    Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by Monkeyman


    Final Four was last week. If thats still out, then you must wait.

    Concerning clutch hitting, I find it hilarious that these guys think it doesn't exist because they can't quantify it. You can't come up with a catch-all to determine what is a pressure situatuation and what isn't. You'll know when you're watching. Its like the ostrich putting its head in the sand. If I can't see it, it doesn't exist.
    the impression i got from the book is not that clutch hitting DOESN'T exist... but that what we perceive as clutch hitting is just getting lucky at the right moment.. which makes just as little sense as clutch hitting not existing.

    you're right though... it's not prudent to overlook things you can't quantify... things that make lets say.. jeter.... one of the best SS in the league

  14. #14
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by chanman7483
    you're right though... it's not prudent to overlook things you can't quantify... things that make lets say.. jeter.... one of the best SS in the league


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    Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by chanman7483

    you're right though... it's not prudent to overlook things you can't quantify... things that make lets say.. jeter.... one of the best SS in the league
    Are you being sarcastic? Because at no point did I say Jeter was one of the best SS in the league. And actually, according to their #s, everything we've been saying about Jeter is true. Career postseason LIPS BA of .415.

  16. #16
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    Re: Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by Monkeyman


    Are you being sarcastic? Because at no point did I say Jeter was one of the best SS in the league. And actually, according to their #s, everything we've been saying about Jeter is true. Career postseason LIPS BA of .415.
    Do you know what LIPS is defined as? I know it means Late Inning Pressure Situations, but I can't find a metric for it. I'd like to know how that's figured, because it seems at odds with the numbers below.

    Jeter postseason:

    RISP - .210/.355/.306
    Runners on base - .245/.345/.329
    Close and Late - .176/.263/.323 (2000-2003)

    "Close and late" is defined as "results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck." In other words, close games in the late innings.

    http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_10_...41033513372636

  17. #17
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by OilCan


    Do you know what LIPS is defined as? I know it means Late Inning Pressure Situations, but I can't find a metric for it. I'd like to know how that's figured, because it seems at odds with the numbers below.
    http://www.enlexica.com/sp/bb/index.html


    LIPS batting average (n) pl: LIPS batting averages
    a batting average calculated for at bats that occur only in the seventh or later inning with either the score tied, one team leading by a run, or the tying run on base, at the plate, or on deck; used to evaluate hitting in key situations.


    I agree, OilCan. It doesn't seem to work with the other stats.

  18. #18
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    re-reading all of these numbers, I'd really like to know where you got the LIPS of .415, monkeyman?

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    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by OilCan


    Do you know what LIPS is defined as? I know it means Late Inning Pressure Situations, but I can't find a metric for it. I'd like to know how that's figured, because it seems at odds with the numbers below.

    Jeter postseason:

    RISP - .210/.355/.306
    Runners on base - .245/.345/.329
    Close and Late - .176/.263/.323 (2000-2003)

    "Close and late" is defined as "results in the 7th inning or later with the batting team either ahead by one run, tied or with the potential tying run at least on deck." In other words, close games in the late innings.

    http://www.aarongleeman.com/2003_10_...41033513372636
    LIPS is 7th or later with the player's team trailing by 3 runs or less or by 4 with two or more men on base.

    According to the new SI, Jeter's career postseason numbers are .314/.385/.469 and his LIPS average is .415. Are you sure those aren't just from one postseason?

    Concerning clutch hitting, Mussina's quote tells it well: "As a pitcher I do know there's something to clutch hitting. I see some guys come up in pressure sitations, and you can tell they're just trying not to strike out. I'm trying to take advantage of a hitter's anxiety by getting him out on his front foot to get him to roll over and hit a grounder or pop it up. The good ones don't let that happen as easily. They don't expand the strike zone, and they're willing to hit the ball up the middle or to the opposite field. Magglio Ordonez is a good example." Try quantifying that. You can't. Mussina is a much better source of what a batter is actually doing in the real world than James is, because he's watching it happen, and he's figured out how to respond to it. Just observing the numbers isn't as useful as actually comprehending what causes those numbers.

  20. #20
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    Well, LIPS and "close and late" seem to be essentially the same thing.

    Maybe the difference could be that Gleeman's "close and late" numbers are from the post season 2000-2003 (4 seasons) and the LIPS numbers are from his entire post season? But if that's the case, his 1996-1999 numbers would have to be insane, so I don't buy that.

    Wifflewood, I think that's the LIPS number that was printed in the latest SI. I remember reading it a couple of days ago and thinking there was a discrepancy somewhere, because I remembered Gleemans numbers were considerably lower.

    FWIW, Gleemans post-season total numbers for Jeter are consistent with SI's.

  21. #21

    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by Monkeyman


    LIPS is 7th or later with the player's team trailing by 3 runs or less or by 4 with two or more men on base.

    According to the new SI, Jeter's career postseason numbers are .314/.385/.469 and his LIPS average is .415. Are you sure those aren't just from one postseason?

    Concerning clutch hitting, Mussina's quote tells it well: "As a pitcher I do know there's something to clutch hitting. I see some guys come up in pressure sitations, and you can tell they're just trying not to strike out. I'm trying to take advantage of a hitter's anxiety by getting him out on his front foot to get him to roll over and hit a grounder or pop it up. The good ones don't let that happen as easily. They don't expand the strike zone, and they're willing to hit the ball up the middle or to the opposite field. Magglio Ordonez is a good example." Try quantifying that. You can't. Mussina is a much better source of what a batter is actually doing in the real world than James is, because he's watching it happen, and he's figured out how to respond to it. Just observing the numbers isn't as useful as actually comprehending what causes those numbers.
    What really happened is less important than why Mike Mussina thinks they happen? There are no style points in baseball-either you're safe or you're out. Mike Mussina's remarks are completely useless.

  22. #22
    Released Outright Dave in MD's Avatar
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    The starter of this thread is way off base. Beane was part of the Oakland front office before he was the GM and was able to apply many of the principles of management then. Hudson and Zito were not saught after, but Oakland still wanted them.

    And his offensive principles do work as Stick Michael did prove with the Yankees from 96-2000. Why are people afraid of quantifyable data.

  23. #23
    Originally posted by Dave in MD
    Why are people afraid of quantifyable data.
    Because baseball is a game and there is no room for math and science in a game. :rolleyes:

  24. #24
    clubhouse cancer WiffleWOOD's Avatar
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    Originally posted by AngelAstro


    Because baseball is a game and there is no room for math and science in a game. :rolleyes:
    (disclaimer: the following is not an idictment of all non-statheads. it is a general response to the question. don't hate me.)

    and also, because people like to think that they are able to formulate their own opinion of the game, and will thus stick with what their "eyes" tell them, even if it flies in the face of quantifiable date like statistics.

    nobody wants to think that the way they are seeing is wrong. hence, statistical data (like the data that shows jeter is poor defensively) is ignored.

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    Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: which issue?

    Originally posted by markp


    What really happened is less important than why Mike Mussina thinks they happen? There are no style points in baseball-either you're safe or you're out. Mike Mussina's remarks are completely useless.
    Way to comepletely ignore what I said. I know I harped on for so long about, what was it, "style points?" My point was that Mussina appeared to have some insight as to how different people may respond in pressure situations. God forbid we listen to an actual baseball player about baseball once in a while.

    I have no problem with quantifiable data, but I think there are flaws in Sabermetric analysis. For instance, things like K-rates dropping, they just assume a guy will get worse, because there is a correlation. But a correlation isn't the same as causation. Its like people who play violent video games and watch violent movies. There is a correlation that they are more violent people. So should we just assume that if someone plays violent video games or watches violent movies that they will become violent? Or should we find the actual cause of both? Maybe people who are more comfortable with violence would be more likely to watch violent movies, and also would be more likely to commit violence. Instead of saying "second baseman decline earlier" or "lowered k-rates lead to higher ERAs" find out WHY. That would be a hell of a lot more effective in putting together a team.

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