+ Reply to Thread
Page 2 of 14 FirstFirst 1 2 3 4 5 12 ... LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 348
  1. #26

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Tom Verducci>INSIDE BASEBALL

    How the Yankees got Masahiro Tanaka, and what he'll really cost

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...ees/index.html
    Said one executive who scouted Tanaka, "Our evaluation of him was as a number two [starter], not a number one, and with more than the usual amount of risk. He's a good pitcher -- a Dan Haren type."

  2. #27

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    if he pitches like a good haren then the yankees should be very happy.
    always reasonable

  3. #28
    NYYF Cy Young

    BobLoblaw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    NH

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    I think he's going to be awesome for us
    The Bob Loblaw Law Blog

  4. #29
    NYYF Legend


    Join Date
    Aug 2002
    Location
    baltimore, md

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    if he pitches like a good haren then the yankees should be very happy.
    screw that. i want Darvish type #s...

    for once i'd love to see a '78 Guidry type season in NY again..

  5. #30
    Better than you teknetic's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    NJ

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by OdiN9 View Post
    Tom Verducci>INSIDE BASEBALL

    How the Yankees got Masahiro Tanaka, and what he'll really cost

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...ees/index.html
    What the hell is Boomer Esiason doing covering baseball? He basically just whined and moaned throughout the video about the Yankees spending money and wrongly claimed that ticket prices would rise as a result this year. What a douchehole.

  6. #31
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Too Close to Fenway

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Sorry... this is a ridiculous way to look at the payroll:

    That means Tanaka's salary (if you choose to isolate it and the team remains well above the threshold) effectively gets taxed as much as $77.5 million, bringing the potential effective cost of signing Tanaka to as much as $252.5 million.
    "Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee

  7. #32

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    Even still...
    CC-Tanaka-Kuroda-Nova-Pineda

    is that potentially the best rotation in baseball?
    You're kidding right?
    CC clearly deteriorating and not going back to the level from a couple of years ago

    Tanaka - no idea what to expect for someone who has never pitched against MLB talent

    Kuroda - a 38 year old who will be a 5/6 starter by August

    Nova - a typical number 4

    Pineda - hasn't pitched in 2 years and coming off major surgery

  8. #33

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Nova's 130 ERA+ is a typical No. 4? Really?

  9. #34

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Nova's 130 ERA+ is a typical No. 4? Really?
    Let's check in on August 15th

  10. #35
    NYYF Legend

    GordonGecko's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New York City

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    He's effectively being paid $36 Million per year over 7

    The Yankees will shell out $175 million for Tanaka -- $155 million in salary plus the $20 million posting fee. But that's not all. The signing also pushes New York past the $189 million tax threshold, which means a 50 percent tax on the overage. That means Tanaka's salary (if you choose to isolate it and the team remains well above the threshold) effectively gets taxed as much as $77.5 million, bringing the potential effective cost of signing Tanaka to as much as $252.5 million.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...w-york-yankees

  11. #36
    NYYF HOF

    theDurk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Basking Ridge, NJ

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
    He's effectively being paid $36 Million per year over 7

    The Yankees will shell out $175 million for Tanaka -- $155 million in salary plus the $20 million posting fee. But that's not all. The signing also pushes New York past the $189 million tax threshold, which means a 50 percent tax on the overage. That means Tanaka's salary (if you choose to isolate it and the team remains well above the threshold) effectively gets taxed as much as $77.5 million, bringing the potential effective cost of signing Tanaka to as much as $252.5 million.

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb...w-york-yankees
    There is no more logical reason to allocate the luxury tax all to Tanaka's contract than there is to allocate it to CC's. You really should just spread it out across all the contracts. 'if you choose to isolate it'....why would I do that?
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

  12. #37

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Because it's about marginal cost.

    They had a chance to get under 189. They decided Tanaka's worth blowing through that, and more.

    That translates to some incredibly high expectations.

    And 252.5 million still might be an underestimate. It doesn't account for luxury taxes saved in 2015 and 2016 when Yankees go back over again. The marginal cost of Tanaka's contract can be reasonably measured at 300 million over 7 years.

  13. #38

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Because it's about marginal cost.

    They had a chance to get under 189. They decided Tanaka's worth blowing through that, and more.

    That translates to some incredibly high expectations.
    Agreed. I think it's very reasonably.

  14. #39
    NYYF HOF

    theDurk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Basking Ridge, NJ

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Because it's about marginal cost.

    They had a chance to get under 189. They decided Tanaka's worth blowing through that, and more.

    That translates to some incredibly high expectations.

    And 252.5 million still might be an underestimate. It doesn't account for luxury taxes saved in 2015 and 2016 when Yankees go back over again. The marginal cost of Tanaka's contract can be reasonably measured at 300 million over 7 years.
    Well, cap will be raised in the next CBA. And they would have had to bust it in 2015 anyway for the same reason, they need pitching. So you can't ascribe a zero value to luxury tax in the no Tanaka scenario except for 2014. It's a really a choice of decent pitching or lousy pitching, and Tanaka was the only play available this season.

    I certainly agree Tanaka has big expectations to live up to--I just think that 300 million number is a serious overstatement.
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

  15. #40

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    luxury tax rates are lower in 2015 and 2016 if yanks stay below 189 for 2014.

    you are confusing the allocation of luxury taxes for accounting purposes and the calculation of marginal costs for decision making purposes.

    300 may be high. but 200 is definitely low. 250 is probably about right even if we account for everything you mentioned.

  16. #41
    NYYF HOF

    theDurk's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2001
    Location
    Basking Ridge, NJ

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    luxury tax rates are lower in 2015 and 2016 if yanks stay below 189 for 2014.

    you are confusing the allocation of luxury taxes for accounting purposes and the calculation of marginal costs for decision making purposes.

    300 may be high. but 200 is definitely low. 250 is probably about right even if we account for everything you mentioned.
    I understand marginal cost perfectly. The 77.5 number has NOTHING to do with marginal cost, in my opinion. If you assume, without Tanaka, the Yankees would be under in 2014, but would go over in 2015, and I think most would agree with that, then the marginal luxury tax due to Tanaka is about $25m not $77.5m.

    With a $22m AAV:

    Lux tax with, from 2014 to 2017, assuming tax rate stays at 50%, is .5 x $22m x 4 years=$44m
    Lux tax paid on a 22m AAV starting in 2015:

    2014: 0
    2015: 17.5% x $22m = $3.8m
    2016: 30% x $22m = $6.6m
    2017: 40% x $22m = $8.8m

    Tax paid with = $44m
    Tax paid w/o = $19.2m

    After 2017, no marginal difference. 50% lux tax either way.

    Marginal lux tax due to Tanaka signing = $44m - $19.2m = $24.8m. Call it $25m.

    It's a long way from $77.5m. The only lux tax you can allocate to Tanaka is the cost of going over in 2014 as opposed to 2015. This is the true marginal cost, unless you think they were staying under forever.
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

  17. #42

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JOBA RULES View Post
    lol not even close...CC had a bad year last year, Pineda hasn't pitched in 2 years, and Tanaka has never thrown a pitch in the majors.

    they have a lot to prove before being dubbed anything near that.
    This.

    At the moment, The Yankees starting staff is vastly approved, but the Red Sox and Tampa staffs are better. However, I love the Yankees lineup more than anyone in the division and think we are looking at a wild card spot at a minimum. (Thanks Bud)

  18. #43
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Too Close to Fenway

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by theDurk View Post
    I understand marginal cost perfectly. The 77.5 number has NOTHING to do with marginal cost, in my opinion. If you assume, without Tanaka, the Yankees would be under in 2014, but would go over in 2015, and I think most would agree with that, then the marginal luxury tax due to Tanaka is about $25m not $77.5m.

    With a $22m AAV:

    Lux tax with, from 2014 to 2017, assuming tax rate stays at 50%, is .5 x $22m x 4 years=$44m
    Lux tax paid on a 22m AAV starting in 2015:

    2014: 0
    2015: 17.5% x $22m = $3.8m
    2016: 30% x $22m = $6.6m
    2017: 40% x $22m = $8.8m

    Tax paid with = $44m
    Tax paid w/o = $19.2m

    After 2017, no marginal difference. 50% lux tax either way.

    Marginal lux tax due to Tanaka signing = $44m - $19.2m = $24.8m. Call it $25m.

    It's a long way from $77.5m. The only lux tax you can allocate to Tanaka is the cost of going over in 2014 as opposed to 2015. This is the true marginal cost, unless you think they were staying under forever.
    And I'm not even willing to go that far -this assumes that the Yankees wouldn't have gone after another pitcher had they not signed Tanaka. That's not really clear to me given Hal's sudden willingness to spend and the state of the rotation sans Tanaka. And, to your point, you have to make payroll assumptions about years beyond 2014, and without Tanaka, it's likely they would have been paying someone else to fill that gap.
    "Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee

  19. #44
    Hello dum-dum... effdamets's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Now in Section 312

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ojo View Post
    screw that. i want Darvish type #s...

    for once i'd love to see a '78 Guidry type season in NY again..
    Um yeah - you can forget this....
    The only way you'll ever see a '78 Guidry type season is on an X-Box....
    “Begin each day as if it were on purpose........”—Alex Hitchens

  20. #45

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    That analysis is incomplete. Yankees would be well over 22+ over in 2015+. It's more like 40 or 50 * 32.5% and so on, adding 20m or so to your analysis. (don't forget ARod's coming back)

    Then toss in the loss of revenue sharing rebates. We're looking at 45~55m for first 4 years in marginal luxury taxes alone by going over.

    There is a much better argument to be made Yankees would go over anyway if they lost out on Tanaka by going after Arroyo/Garza. Either way, the cost of going 189 is exceedingly high, almost certainly much higher than the revenues lost by staying 189 for another year.

    With that said, Yankees were 20/1 (middle of pack, basically wild card contenders, tied with Rays) before Tanaka, we're now 10/1. 4.67% to win WS to 9.09% to win WS. Red Sox is at 12/1, or 7.69% to win.

    This was not a business decision. Without making crazy assumptions with regards to improved revenues, the cost is simply too high. This was an act of love by the Steinbrenners. The Spirit of The Boss is very much still alive.

  21. #46

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by teknetic View Post
    What the hell is Boomer Esiason doing covering baseball? He basically just whined and moaned throughout the video about the Yankees spending money and wrongly claimed that ticket prices would rise as a result this year. What a douchehole.
    I suggest you turn off your tv and radio if you don't want to hear people bitching about how the Yankees spent $500 milion this offseason!!! Even the ESPN screen scroll was taking backhanded shots at the Yankees yesterday.

    He's making a billion dollars a year and the Yankees are ruining baseball!!!

    Wake me up when ST starts.
    Plays the game the wrong way.

  22. #47

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Espn Dan Szymborski says Yankees still a fourth-place team
    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotst...iro-tanaka-mlb

    Masahiro Tanaka isn't good enough to make New York a playoff club

  23. #48
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Too Close to Fenway

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    That analysis is incomplete. Yankees would be well over 22+ over in 2015+. It's more like 40 or 50 * 32.5% and so on, adding 20m or so to your analysis. (don't forget ARod's coming back)

    Then toss in the loss of revenue sharing rebates. We're looking at 45~55m for first 4 years in marginal luxury taxes alone by going over.

    There is a much better argument to be made Yankees would go over anyway if they lost out on Tanaka by going after Arroyo/Garza. Either way, the cost of going 189 is exceedingly high, almost certainly much higher than the revenues lost by staying 189 for another year.

    With that said, Yankees were 20/1 (middle of pack, basically wild card contenders, tied with Rays) before Tanaka, we're now 10/1. 4.67% to win WS to 9.09% to win WS. Red Sox is at 12/1, or 7.69% to win.

    This was not a business decision. Without making crazy assumptions with regards to improved revenues, the cost is simply too high. This was an act of love by the Steinbrenners. The Spirit of The Boss is very much still alive.
    Why can't it be a business decision if ownership sees attendance/ad revenue etc. dropping and thinks this is the best way to improve the team, get back to the playoffs, and increase fan interest?
    "Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee

  24. #49
    Hello dum-dum... effdamets's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2002
    Location
    Now in Section 312

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by OdiN9 View Post
    Espn Dan Szymborski says Yankees still a fourth-place team
    http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotst...iro-tanaka-mlb
    I think there will be a lot of people doing a lot of backtracking come July.
    It's very difficult for me to understand how people can predict the performance of teams this early. They know for sure that each and every team is going to not have a single injured player? They know that all the players on all the teams are going to repeat their performances from last season and that no one on the Yankees is going to improve?

    I'm definitely reserved to the fact that these so called experts blurt out anything against the Yankees to get ratings, readers and viewers.
    Especially, ESPN analysts.
    “Begin each day as if it were on purpose........”—Alex Hitchens

  25. #50

    Re: 2014 Official Masahiro Tanaka Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Fan in Boston View Post
    Why can't it be a business decision if ownership sees attendance/ad revenue etc. dropping and thinks this is the best way to improve the team, get back to the playoffs, and increase fan interest?
    Because the cost is much much higher than likely revenues. They lost 50 million in ticket revenues last year by not making the playoffs at all and fielding a rather boring team.

    Even if you assume the swing is from 0 to 50, or even another -50 to +50 (100m swing), they'd save more money by not signing Tanaka and end up with more profits. This assumption is ridiculous because even with sub 189 payroll, Yankees had significant probability to get into the playoffs.

    Bovada right now has Yankees at 1st place in ALEast with 10/1 ahead of BoSox 12/1 to win WS. Yankees are in third overall behind Dodgers 13/2 and Tigers 17/2 to win WS.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

     

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts