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Thread: Masahiro Tanaka

  1. #326

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx...on=P#pitchtype

    Not sure where you're getting your velocity readings, but in his first year in MLB immediately following his last season in NPB, his FB averaged about a 92... I've actually seen a number of tanaka's starts and recorded his velocity, and it's actually right on par with 92

    As for the "flat fastball," I wish we'd all stop quoting the same Ben badler scouting report... Literally everything I've read online quotes that same line about him not getting enough of a plane on his FB, but it all comes from one report! In the starts I've seen, the movement has been above average, and he's maintained his velocity late into games (was still hitting 94 in the final inning on his CG victory in games 2 of the JWS last week)

    And, FYI, tanaka put up those numbers even after NPB admitted that they were using juiced balls this season to get the HR rates up
    It's all right here.

    http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=252

    Fastball average 90.67 is 1.73mph lower than DiceK's FA average in his first year in MLB. And his fastball is flat compared to DiceK's if you're saying it has (just) above average movement. DiceK's fastball, when he first got here, was almost a full standard deviation away (mostly vertical, but above average on horizontal too) on the break of his fastball compared to MLB averages. That's at least in the upper end of "above average" and approaching "filthy". Maybe my eyes deceive me, but I just don't think Tanaka's fastball moves that much.

  2. #327
    Better than you teknetic's Avatar
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by apalradio View Post
    The Yanks will succeed in signing this guy, he reports to Spring Training, struggles, goes on DL, Tommy John surgery, gone. Sorry, just seems to be the way these days...
    You missed the whole "shows promise, pulls a hammy, comes back nine months later with new mechanics to prevent further hamstring related injuries, winds up topping out at 90mph, and remains as an albatross contract for another four years" part before the eventual TJS.

  3. #328
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by teknetic View Post
    You missed the whole "shows promise, pulls a hammy, comes back nine months later with new mechanics to prevent further hamstring related injuries, winds up topping out at 90mph, and remains as an albatross contract for another four years" part before the eventual TJS.
    Not to mention the "Tanaka Rules".

    I'm trying to stay positive that the Yankees will sign him and he will pan out at least as a solid #3.
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  4. #329
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    I just want to remind everyone that having a live fastball (high velocity, lots of movement) isn't a surefire way to have success with the pitch. According to fangraphs, 5 of the top 10 most valuable fastballs in baseball this year for starting pitchers were under 92 miles per hour. For example, take Jose Quintana. His wFA was 14.6, good for 6th in the league. He only averaged 91.2 miles per hour and it was relatively flat horizontally. It had good, but not exception, vertical movement. You can say very similar things about Madison Bumgarner, Zach Greinke, and Adam Wainwright's fastballs.

    It is much more important to locate your fastball. While a live fastball is certainly a big help, you don't have to be Matt Harvey or Stephen Strasburg to get outs with the pitch. Especially if you have other pitches to set up the fastball. I don't know Tanaka very well and whether or not his location is good, or if his off-speed stuff is good. But some of the best fastballs aren't very fast or deceiving movement-wise.

  5. #330

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    I just want to remind everyone that having a live fastball (high velocity, lots of movement) isn't a surefire way to have success with the pitch. According to fangraphs, 5 of the top 10 most valuable fastballs in baseball this year for starting pitchers were under 92 miles per hour. For example, take Jose Quintana. His wFA was 14.6, good for 6th in the league. He only averaged 91.2 miles per hour and it was relatively flat horizontally. It had good, but not exception, vertical movement. You can say very similar things about Madison Bumgarner, Zach Greinke, and Adam Wainwright's fastballs.

    It is much more important to locate your fastball. While a live fastball is certainly a big help, you don't have to be Matt Harvey or Stephen Strasburg to get outs with the pitch. Especially if you have other pitches to set up the fastball. I don't know Tanaka very well and whether or not his location is good, or if his off-speed stuff is good. But some of the best fastballs aren't very fast or deceiving movement-wise.
    While all of this is true, most people that rank higher than Jose Quintana by wFB/100 has what most people would consider plus fastballs.

  6. #331
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    It's all right here.

    http://www.npbtracker.com/data/player.php?p_id=252

    Fastball average 90.67 is 1.73mph lower than DiceK's FA average in his first year in MLB. And his fastball is flat compared to DiceK's if you're saying it has (just) above average movement. DiceK's fastball, when he first got here, was almost a full standard deviation away (mostly vertical, but above average on horizontal too) on the break of his fastball compared to MLB averages. That's at least in the upper end of "above average" and approaching "filthy". Maybe my eyes deceive me, but I just don't think Tanaka's fastball moves that much.
    the last readings they have on tanaka are from 2012... not saying there could have been a significant bump in velo this past season (ala darvish from 2011-2012), but i'd like to see some more definitive readings from 2013, because in all the games i saw (and granted, they were only a handful), he was averaging about a 92

    regardless of velocity, his location is his bread and butter anyway, and even taking into consideration a bump in BB/9 that'll inevitably occur once he makes the jump to MLB, tanaka will still be a solid #2-3, imo, and for his age and the contract he'll most likely get, i think he's worth it (i think he's capable of putting up 2010/2012 hughes-like numbers, which is plenty good for a 3)
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  7. #332

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    the last readings they have on tanaka are from 2012... not saying there could have been a significant bump in velo this past season (ala darvish from 2011-2012), but i'd like to see some more definitive readings from 2013, because in all the games i saw (and granted, they were only a handful), he was averaging about a 92

    regardless of velocity, his location is his bread and butter anyway, and even taking into consideration a bump in BB/9 that'll inevitably occur once he makes the jump to MLB, tanaka will still be a solid #2-3, imo, and for his age and the contract he'll most likely get, i think he's worth it (i think he's capable of putting up 2010/2012 hughes-like numbers, which is plenty good for a 3)
    The Yankee scouts would have that data and that's what matters most here.
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  8. #333

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    the last readings they have on tanaka are from 2012... not saying there could have been a significant bump in velo this past season (ala darvish from 2011-2012), but i'd like to see some more definitive readings from 2013, because in all the games i saw (and granted, they were only a handful), he was averaging about a 92

    regardless of velocity, his location is his bread and butter anyway, and even taking into consideration a bump in BB/9 that'll inevitably occur once he makes the jump to MLB, tanaka will still be a solid #2-3, imo, and for his age and the contract he'll most likely get, i think he's worth it (i think he's capable of putting up 2010/2012 hughes-like numbers, which is plenty good for a 3)
    You have really done your due diligence here.
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  9. #334
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankees1962 View Post
    The Yankee scouts would have that data and that's what matters most here.
    I would assume that they watched lots of his 2013 games so I think they would have an updated readings. Otherwise they're not doing their jobs.

  10. #335

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  11. #336
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    you really need to calm down with that stuff... didn't you do something similar with darvish? and look how that ended up
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  12. #337

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    you can't calm destiny down
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  13. #338
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    you can't calm destiny down
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  14. #339
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    teixeira will be jealous when he sees the wet spot on your pants

    Just a little snapple spill.
    If they ask who was our star, give them 25 names, and if you forget our names, just tell them we were Yankees.

  15. #340

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    teixeira will be jealous when he sees the wet spot on your pants
    he knows its for the team, nothing personal
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  16. #341

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    This reminds me of so so so many pitchers we have filled countless threads over in the past. Whether it is inserting them in the rotation as a given and/or already fitting for Pinstripes, it just never seems to work out in the end (and sometimes thankfully not working out). Santana, Matsuzaka, Lee, Darvish etc......

  17. #342

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by wang+cano=future View Post
    This reminds me of so so so many pitchers we have filled countless threads over in the past. Whether it is inserting them in the rotation as a given and/or already fitting for Pinstripes, it just never seems to work out in the end (and sometimes thankfully not working out). Santana, Matsuzaka, Lee, Darvish etc......
    You would not want Lee or Darvish on this team right now? Interesting.

  18. #343
    The Sausage King of Chicago Abe Frohman's Avatar
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    My gut feeling ...

    We end up signing this guy to near Darvish type money after posting fee + contract, and he's nowhere near Darvish in terms of production.

    Thats just the way the cookie crumbles in the Bronx.
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  19. #344
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    even though he will make darvish money, he's not darvish and will not put up darvish type numbers, and this is just the nature of economics... contracts are getting more expensive because baseball is flush with cash right now

    people expecting darvish-type performces will be sorely disappointed, and to be honest, it's not fair to compare him to darvish either... darvish is literally the best pitcher that NPB has ever produced, so putting anyone in that realm is stupid in an of itself... tanaka can be a solid 2-3, imo, but he won't be an ace... but there's still value in that
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  20. #345
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    I'm happy they seem to be in the running for him, but I can't help but be bothered by the fact that they're gonna bid nearly 3x as much on him as they did on Darvish. That just reeks of an organization being scared to take a risk.

    Also, kinda neat how Darvish and Iwakuma made the finalists for the CY this year.

  21. #346
    The Sausage King of Chicago Abe Frohman's Avatar
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by teknetic View Post
    I'm happy they seem to be in the running for him, but I can't help but be bothered by the fact that they're gonna bid nearly 3x as much on him as they did on Darvish. That just reeks of an organization being scared to take a risk.

    Also, kinda neat how Darvish and Iwakuma made the finalists for the CY this year.
    Exactly.

    It's not what Tanaka may end up costing, as there is value in a solid #2 or #3 guy ... its that they were too p***y to put that same money up for Darvish.

    What could they possibly see in Tanaka that they failed to see in Darvish ? Ridiculous.

    The decisions this organization makes, they just boggle the mind.
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  22. #347
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by Abe Frohman View Post
    Exactly.

    It's not what Tanaka may end up costing, as there is value in a solid #2 or #3 guy ... its that they were too p***y to put that same money up for Darvish.

    What could they possibly see in Tanaka that they failed to see in Darvish ? Ridiculous.

    The decisions this organization makes, they just boggle the mind.
    I think it's probably wiser just to accept that they realized their approach to this market was wrong and they're changing their ways. I think that's a good sign as these team looks to do a better job of acquiring and developing younger talent. It's time to get over Darvish and do what they can to make the team better now.
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  23. #348
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    well, look on the bright side: if darvish continues at this pace and annually gets CY votes, his 2017 becomes a player option, which he will ultimately decline in order to get back onto the open market at age 29 (this is all barring that he's traded or extended before then, of course)
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  24. #349
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    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    well, look on the bright side: if darvish continues at this pace and annually gets CY votes, his 2017 becomes a player option, which he will ultimately decline in order to get back onto the open market at age 29 (this is all barring that he's traded or extended before then, of course)
    Baseball Reference states that Darvish is not a free agent until 2018, but does note the same 2017 player option. After the 2016 season, he would only have five years service time, one year short of free agency.

    I am purely guessing here, but it looks like the deal gives him the right to void the last year of his contract by not exercising the player option, but would only get him to arbitration for the 2017 season, not to the open market.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  25. #350

    Re: Masahiro Tanaka

    Quote Originally Posted by Abe Frohman View Post
    Exactly.

    It's not what Tanaka may end up costing, as there is value in a solid #2 or #3 guy ... its that they were too p***y to put that same money up for Darvish.

    What could they possibly see in Tanaka that they failed to see in Darvish ? Ridiculous.

    The decisions this organization makes, they just boggle the mind.

    I was all for signing darvish as well, but i think the 50mm+ posting fee blew everyone out of the door. Nobody expected that!

    Even if the yanks had a huge hardon like the rest of us here were advocating, i think the highest bids estimated at the time were in the 40MM. Even if the yanks bet 40MM, they wouldve still lost the bid.

    Also i might add that the reports of a posting fee upwards of 75MM is a mistake. Right idea, NYY, wrong japanese pitcher to blow 130MM on.
    Last edited by ober0n98; 11-08-13 at 07:14 PM.

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