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  1. #151
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Where are you seeing Fld? I saw you used 27 and noticed that was exactly his URZ.

    Yes, Trout has been an average CF by those metrics this year. Same for Gardner & Jackson too.

    Fangraphs.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...rs=0&sort=19,d

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  2. #152
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    I didn't say he was good, I said last year he was average. And for his career, he's been average. Good would be better than average.
    I'd conceed that Miggy was average last year. For his career though he's pretty much been a butcher in the field where ever his team tried to hide him.

    Generational type hitter though.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  3. #153
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    Interesting, on the dash board of hitting they call it one thing on the fielding tab they call it another. But they are obviously using it interchangably. No idea why other than they think Fld is easier for the masses to understand.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  4. #154
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    No idea why other than they think Fld is easier for the masses to understand.


    Except I had at least heard of UZR; I had no idea what Fld was...

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  5. #155
    Pinpoint False1's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    So then what does it mean?

    Manny Machado has an Fld of 27.0

    What does that mean?

    He has a BA of .294; I can explain that. It means 29.4% of the time he has an AB, he gets a base it.

    He has a BB% of 4.1%; I can explain that. It means 4.1% of the time, he walks.

    What does Fld of 27.0 mean?
    I see YT already covered you here, and you seemed to acknowledge so I won't tread that turf again.

    I will say though that I didn't bring up that metric. You did. It's a derived number from like 4 other metrics. Not to the same degree, but like you with WAR and UZR I get less confident in a number as you layer formula on top of formula and so on. It's still not useless, but I generally don't put as much stock in those as I do others that are more straight forward.

    I brought up BIZ and indirectly RZR (which incidentally is used as a component of UZR) because, in spite of your reservations about bias and human error, in my opinion is a reasonable evaluation of the ability to man a position.

    Curious... you quote walk percentage. There's human error in everything. Are you really going to rail against a stat like BIZ based on the human evaluation of two folks watching video, but express tremendous confidence in the validity of BB% which results on the ultimate point in time judgment call in the entire game - balls and strikes?

  6. #156
    Tends to be difficult JL25and3's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    OK, see, that's explainable. Like WAR, with a range of 0-2 meaning one thing, etc...buy into the methodology and what the number means is self-explanatory.

    But then why is that category called Fld, instead of UZR?

    And BTW, using that measuring, Trout is slightly above average this year.
    Fld is the sum of a player's UZR at all positions.
    A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.
    - Barry Manilow

  7. #157
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    Curious... you quote walk percentage. There's human error in everything. Are you really going to rail against a stat like BIZ based on the human evaluation of two folks watching video, but express tremendous confidence in the validity of BB% which results on the ultimate point in time judgment call in the entire game - balls and strikes?
    No, I was just saying that's something I could explain. I had no idea what Fld 27.0 was or what it meant, but Avg, BB%, I could look at, explain, and understand. Looking at Fld 27.0 meant nothing, without knowing what Fld is.

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  8. #158
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    goin for 27's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    But 3B are not expected to steal bases. Of all the 3B in the AL this year, Cabrera is tied for 4th in SB with THREE! The leader, has SIX!

    Change that to CF (in AL), and the leader has 47! 16 CF have more SB than the speediest 3B. For OF overall in the AL, 30 have more SB than the 3B leaders.

    So while yes, Trout's speed adds a dimension to his game, it's expected of an OF. It's not expected of a 3B or CI. (Hosmer leads all CI with 10 SB).
    So what? I am saying Trout is the better ballplayer. YES, one reason is that he plays a more important position on defense, AND, he plays the position better. He is also a top of the league base runner. HENCE, he is the better ballplayer, that's all.
    Goin for 2<strike>7</strike>8!

  9. #159
    Pinpoint False1's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Just in case anyone is interested... I get the hesitation around defensive metrics broadly, but BIZ is one that based on my understanding was relatively sound, even given the human judgment factor. I think the ability to at least directionally trust some of this data is important if we want to have informed conversations in the realm of defensive performance.

    I sent an email to Ben Jedlovic at BIS to try and get a firmer understanding of their process for recording Balls In Zone (BIZ) events. Turns out my description was fundamentally accurate, but it is a bit different than what I originally understood. And frankly, the process is more sound than I originally thought. Big_E -- this should address your concern around bias (e.g. "Manny Machado would have gotten that, Cabrera is a lousy fielder, etc). Here's part of his response (emphasis mine):

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Jedlovic at BIS
    Our video scouts aren't judging in/out of zone plays on their own. They are simply plotting the location of the batted ball on a diagram of the field. They use replay, slo-mo, and different angles from different broadcasts, as you mention, to plot the location of the batted ball. Behind the scenes, our computer stores the coordinates of that plotted location. The code also knows which coordinates fall in and out of the pre-determined zones, and the in/out of zone determination is made at that point without human judgment.
    Again, this is not to say that the data is perfect but the process, the controls and the endorsement by actual MLB clubs lead me to have confidence in the data... particularly when it shows a consistent year-over-year outcome for an individual player.

  10. #160
    Faith is a funny thing.
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    I think the ability to at least directionally trust some of this data is important if we want to have informed conversations in the realm of defensive performance.

    I sent an email to Ben Jedlovic at BIS to try and get a firmer understanding of their process for recording Balls In Zone (BIZ) events.
    Your first point is very well made: We can't have a discussion on the same topic if we refuse to accept some framework for it.

    Thanks so much for going above and beyond in the research dept! That's great work.


  11. #161
    Tends to be difficult JL25and3's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    Just in case anyone is interested... I get the hesitation around defensive metrics broadly, but BIZ is one that based on my understanding was relatively sound, even given the human judgment factor. I think the ability to at least directionally trust some of this data is important if we want to have informed conversations in the realm of defensive performance.

    I sent an email to Ben Jedlovic at BIS to try and get a firmer understanding of their process for recording Balls In Zone (BIZ) events. Turns out my description was fundamentally accurate, but it is a bit different than what I originally understood. And frankly, the process is more sound than I originally thought. Big_E -- this should address your concern around bias (e.g. "Manny Machado would have gotten that, Cabrera is a lousy fielder, etc). Here's part of his response (emphasis mine):



    Again, this is not to say that the data is perfect but the process, the controls and the endorsement by actual MLB clubs lead me to have confidence in the data... particularly when it shows a consistent year-over-year outcome for an individual player.
    Trust but verify...which, unfortunately, is impossible here. I will say that something more consistent than UZR is a plus, but there are still so many gaps in our understanding of the data that I'll continue to take it as a guesstimate.
    A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.
    - Barry Manilow

  12. #162

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    I didn't say he was good, I said last year he was average. And for his career, he's been average. Good would be better than average.
    Duly noted. But that's still an evasive response to my post. Your preference for particular data doesn't seem to be based on any principled standard.

    ESPN mentioned that Miggy has never been on the DL. That's crazy.


  13. #163

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post

    Again, this is not to say that the data is perfect but the process, the controls and the endorsement by actual MLB clubs lead me to have confidence in the data... particularly when it shows a consistent year-over-year outcome for an individual player.
    UZR is done the same way. Notice it's about batted balls, making positions that primarily "receive" balls from teammates like catcher and 1B very difficult for UZR. For those guys, their UZR is still dominated by traditional stats like errors and fielding percentages.

    Like I've often said, the problem with UZR and BIZ is not that the data is unrealiable; the problem is even bad fielders are actually very good and the differences between the best and worst fielders are small, then the data is presented in a way to magnify that difference.

    Teams already have access to field/fx and hit/fx to get the velocities of the balls coming off the bat. It's fairly easy for them to incorporate that data into the zone data to get much better defensive ratings. All you have to do is use the initial velocity and trajectory to calculate an estimated time a fielder has to react and then add that to the zone data and recalculate the plus minuses.

    I am sure there are already teams with statisticians doing exactly that. I suspect Yankees is one of them.

  14. #164

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    UZR is done the same way. Notice it's about batted balls, making positions that primarily "receive" balls from teammates like catcher and 1B very difficult for UZR. For those guys, their UZR is still dominated by traditional stats like errors and fielding percentages.

    Like I've often said, the problem with UZR and BIZ is not that the data is unrealiable; the problem is even bad fielders are actually very good and the differences between the best and worst fielders are small, then the data is presented in a way to magnify that difference.

    Teams already have access to field/fx and hit/fx to get the velocities of the balls coming off the bat. It's fairly easy for them to incorporate that data into the zone data to get much better defensive ratings. All you have to do is use the initial velocity and trajectory to calculate an estimated time a fielder has to react and then add that to the zone data and recalculate the plus minuses.

    I am sure there are already teams with statisticians doing exactly that. I suspect Yankees is one of them.
    Do metrics that use "zones" consider defensive positioning? Theoretically, if a player is positioned perfectly, he can get to every single ball hit in his defensive zone.


  15. #165

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    Do metrics that use "zones" consider defensive positioning? Theoretically, if a player is positioned perfectly, he can get to every single ball hit in his defensive zone.
    No, although I am sure some teams with access to raw data try to incorporate the information.

    The idea is some players are better at positioning, some worse and the zone ratings don't really care about how they get to the balls.

    It does appear to even out since at a quick glance, Rays and former Rays don't see dramatic changes in UZR after changing teams and we know how much Maddon likes the shift.

  16. #166

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread



  17. #167
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Cabrera is about to become the first right-handed American League hitter to win three or more consecutive batting titles since Nap Lajoie in 1901-02-03-04. The last NL right-handed hitter to do it was Rogers Hornsby in 1920-21-22-23-24-25

    Elite company.

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  18. #168
    Your 2014 NY Yankees JDPNYY's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    Cabrera is about to become the first right-handed American League hitter to win three or more consecutive batting titles since Nap Lajoie in 1901-02-03-04. The last NL right-handed hitter to do it was Rogers Hornsby in 1920-21-22-23-24-25

    Elite company.
    Did Nap or Rogers take Performance Enhancing Drugs?
    Pardon, for us.

  19. #169
    Hello dum-dum... effdamets's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JDPNYY View Post
    Did Nap or Rogers take Performance Enhancing Drugs?
    I don't think so - PEDs weren't really invented until the 1930s
    “Begin each day as if it were on purpose........”—Alex Hitchens

  20. #170
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    2nd straight MVP award...

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  21. #171
    let's go rangers! Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    They got it right this year! Go Miggy!
    Boo for trading Prado.

  22. #172

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Voters get it wrong again.

    Trout should have two MVPs.

  23. #173
    Better than you teknetic's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread


  24. #174
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Voters get it wrong again.

    Trout should have two MVPs.
    "I said, WAR, huh
    Good God, y'all
    What is it good for
    Absolutely nothing
    Say it again!"

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  25. #175

    Re: The Miguel Cabrera Thread

    even without staring at war it's not hard to see Trout hits the ball almost as well as Miggy, steals 30 more bases, and plays above average defense at a premium defensive position.

    Miggy meanwhile is a defensive liability that can barely run the bases.

    Best hitter =/= best player

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