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  1. #76

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison....1875,1177,1679

    Players generally decline around 30. A guy like Ortiz would be an exception, but his career is weird all the way around. I'd love to resign him, but we all know there's a point where it makes sense not to, and I just think that Adams might move the needle a touch in favor of NOT re-signing Cano. I don't think anyone would argue that Adams performance thus far makes it MORE necessary to sign him.

    what the poop? you're comparing Cano's health/likelihood of decline with a former drug addict, one of the top HBP guys in our era, and the player who's looked like he was 30 since he was 20?

    come on now
    like delv, but better

  2. #77

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Taken from

    http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.jpg



    The assertion that players tend to fall off quickly in their thirties is valid.

  3. #78

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    I was curious so I ran a query using FG data

    I filtered for players with 10 war or higher for age 29 and 30 seasons for up to 2005. Then I pulled up the WRC+ and WAR for those same players for their age 35 to 37 seasons.

    Nearly half (53 out of 108) failed to record 5 WAR over 3 years. 30 recorded between 5 and 10. 13 recorded 10 to 15 (keep in mind this is over 3 years). And only 12 continued to produce at what may be considered "star" level of 5 a year, for 15 over 3 year period.

    Those 12 players are:


    First column is WAR for their combined age 29 and 30 seasons. Second column is WAR for 35 to 37. Then WRC+ for 29/30 and 35-37.

  4. #79

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Taken from

    http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.jpg


    The assertion that players tend to fall off quickly in their thirties is valid.
    1) I don't dispute the general point, of course, but he chose especially extreme examples
    2) that chart you posted shows players performing at 90% of peak ability at age 35 (blue line). That's far from "falling off quickly." Indeed, the rate of decline is quite slower than the rate of development.
    like delv, but better

  5. #80

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SatchelPaigeYankee View Post
    1) I don't dispute the general point, of course, but he chose especially extreme examples
    2) that chart you posted shows players performing at 90% of peak ability at age 35 (blue line). That's far from "falling off quickly." Indeed, the rate of decline is quite slower than the rate of development.
    The article I meant to link is this:

    http://www.tangotiger.net/aging.html

    Few things about the 10% falloff thing.
    1. It's a heavily self-selecting sample.
    2. The measure he used is a version of wOBA, with no attention paid to health and number of PAs (under than player meets a minimum)
    3. Cano's peak wOBA was .391 in 2010. 90% of that is ~.352. That's basically what ARod has been for the past 4 years.

    I could live with that for 4 or 5 years at the end of Cano's ~200/8-10 years. But to expect more is rather unrealistic.

  6. #81

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SatchelPaigeYankee View Post
    1) I don't dispute the general point, of course, but he chose especially extreme examples
    2) that chart you posted shows players performing at 90% of peak ability at age 35 (blue line). That's far from "falling off quickly." Indeed, the rate of decline is quite slower than the rate of development.
    I didn't really choose those examples with any agenda. Pujols and Hamilton were part of the conversation from earlier. Then I threw in Utley because I thought that was a fair comp for Cano (talent level, position, good durability through his age 30 season). I think those attributes are far more important than the HBPs. Besides, there are countervailing reasons to suppose Cano may decline FASTER than some of those comps. Pujols has been an elite player with a great eye and textbook swing - Cano possibly has more exploitable holes (cue flymick). Hamilton has the drug use, but consequently avoided the wear and tear caused by the game itself (such as those devastating HBPs, of course).

    Anyway, if you want to select more valid players to compare, be my guest. For instance, Alfonso Soriano has no history of drug usage, gets hit by about as many pitches as Cano, and does not have an old-looking face (debatable), so we could use him. Or you can just refer to grizy's study.

    I didn't pick age 30 out of a hat, either. That was you, when you were listing out all the good things about Cano, which seemed odd considering his performance is expected to decline in the following years. And I didn't even say he was going to fall off precipitously immediately after hitting that age - but I do expect a general decline, with maybe a positive blip here and there. And I think studies support that expectation, though it's certainly not set in stone.


  7. #82

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Back to Adams...it will be interesting to see how he responds to his bat cooling off. He needs to start getting his walks.


  8. #83

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    Back to Adams...it will be interesting to see how he responds to his bat cooling off. He needs to start getting his walks.
    Not getting many fastballs in the zone anymore. Struggling to identify the breaking ball. Will be good experience for him, as he will go back to Scranton this weekend with a feel for how MLB pitchers will approach him.

  9. #84

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    if cano puts up his .380 wOBA years at 2b with decent defense, that's worth more than what he'll get for that season, even on a 200m deal. you take hte front loaded production with the understanding that he'll be a bit overpaid at the end of the deal.
    always reasonable

  10. #85

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    if cano puts up his .380 wOBA years at 2b with decent defense, that's worth more than what he'll get for that season, even on a 200m deal. you take hte front loaded production with the understanding that he'll be a bit overpaid at the end of the deal.
    But the question should be whether it's likely to all be worth more than the alternatives. Maybe it will be; maybe not. We'll at least know more at season's end - about both Adams and Cano.


  11. #86
    NYYF Triple Crown


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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    He's not starting today.

  12. #87
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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by EvanJ View Post
    He's not starting today.
    Might have something to do with being 3 for his last 19 and drawing zero walks in 49 PAs this year. I have a feeling he'll be headed to AAA on Friday so Joe G can mix and match the Franken-Short-Stop combo of Nix/Bringnac.
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  13. #88

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Might have something to do with being 3 for his last 19 and drawing zero walks in 49 PAs this year. I have a feeling he'll be headed to AAA on Friday so Joe G can mix and match the Franken-Short-Stop combo of Nix/Bringnac.



  14. #89
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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Might have something to do with being 3 for his last 19 and drawing zero walks in 49 PAs this year. I have a feeling he'll be headed to AAA on Friday so Joe G can mix and match the Franken-Short-Stop combo of Nix/Bringnac.
    You mean Nixingnac?
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  15. #90
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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    You mean Nixingnac?
    Yes. SS has been a vast waste pland for the Yanks this season. I wonder who next week's DFA de jour will be?
    Baseball is life;
    the rest is just details.

  16. #91

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    But the question should be whether it's likely to all be worth more than the alternatives. Maybe it will be; maybe not. We'll at least know more at season's end - about both Adams and Cano.
    the alternative would be another 2b, or replacement for lost production in another position. given the general badness of 2b, first option is an argument for cano, becasue the baseline is set very low. the second option is likely to be inefficient because 1. there's not enough low hanging fruit improvements that can consume your budget, so you'll spend at least some portion of your budget on expensive options. are these expensive options less expansive and risky than cano? not sure. 2. teams do not properly value positional value yet, so you have lumbering 1b types get huge deals that return even less wins per dollar. it's not likely that cano will be overpaid compared to other offensive options.


    unless some competition goes nuts. that could always happen
    always reasonable

  17. #92
    Tends to be difficult JL25and3's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankee Tripper View Post
    Yes. SS has been a vast waste pland for the Yanks this season. I wonder who next week's DFA de jour will be?
    Unpland is more like it.
    A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.
    - Barry Manilow

  18. #93

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    speaking of ss

    troy tulowitzki why so good garblg garble garble
    always reasonable

  19. #94
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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    Would the Yankees have bid higher on Darvish if they didn't have Cano's impending free agency looming?

    These types of pitchers are hard to come by, though. I recognize that as a problem.
    Good question. I don't think so though. (Cano impacting the Darvish bid) It was fall of 2011, long way from extending Robbie.

    I think it was watching Dice K, and the Igawa disaster, Cash just did not want to pony up. Mistake that I am sure he would admit to today, but for Rangers, it WAS a big gamble, it just hit.
    Goin for 2<strike>7</strike>8!

  20. #95

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Been really impressed with his glove.


  21. #96
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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JL25and3 View Post
    Unpland is more like it.
    Zing!

  22. #97

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Adams playing 2b tonight

  23. #98
    NYYF Cy Young


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    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Is he still on the team?

  24. #99

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    has he replaced Cano yet?

    ()
    like delv, but better

  25. #100

    Re: 2013 David Adams Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mitch300 View Post
    Is he still on the team?
    He made the mistake of being a rookie on the Yankees & going through a slump. That kind of thing is unacceptable to Girardi & the front office.

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