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  1. #51

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerkface View Post
    Yea I'm sure 1 of Ichiro, Wells, Hafner, Rivera, Overbay, whoever can provide something. But all of them? Most of them? A majority? And they are relying on these guys big time. Its not like any of these came into camp like Colon with 95 mph fastball that had previously been absent. Ibanez provided about what you would have expected, and was awful for most of the summer.

    Edit: This is essentially a parallel discussion to the wells thread, so let me say I totally get where you're coming from. Some people are just more skeptical.
    Thing is they're gonna have to do the same thing next offseason- even moreso

    Who knows if Kuroda and Pettitte will be back next year ( or if they should be ) Mo, Youkilis and Grandy are gone also

    There's no replacements in the minors so it will be the scrap heap and free agency keeping in mind the self inflicted cap

    This year is gonna be rough- next year could be very ugly
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  2. #52
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by ieddyi View Post
    Thing is they're gonna have to do the same thing next offseason- even moreso

    Who knows if Kuroda and Pettitte will be back next year ( or if they should be ) Mo, Youkilis and Grandy are gone also

    There's no replacements in the minors so it will be the scrap heap and free agency keeping in mind the self inflicted cap

    This year is gonna be rough- next year could be very ugly
    Hopefully Pineda will be part of the rotation in 2014.

  3. #53

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Juan Rivera released. Overbay @ 1st and Fransisco b/u of

    I approve this message- Rivera is brutal in the field

    PS just remembered thay paid him a retention bonus of 100k on Tuesday

    Talk about "money for nothing"
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  4. #54
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by ieddyi View Post
    Juan Rivera released. Overbay @ 1st and Fransisco b/u of

    I approve this message- Rivera is brutal in the field

    PS just remembered thay paid him a retention bonus of 100k on Tuesday

    Talk about "money for nothing"
    A parting gift...
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  5. #55
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Maybe the Mets could pick up Rivera and use him in their oufield?

  6. #56
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    2-0 down in the bottom of the ninth against the Pirates and Lyle got a double scoring one run. Leaving runners on second and third for Dan Johnson with two outs who couldn't convert ending the game. Promising if he can replicate during the regular season.

    We need cover at 1st until Tex gets back and although not overwhelming Lyle should be able to make good use of the short porch in right.

    This Yankee team is going to play baseball this year not just live off of power. Another lefty hitter with some power left compliments the likes of Gardner, Ichiro, Nunez and Youkilis who will be staples early in the season.
    'Keep your mouth shut and play baseball!', Tony Lazzeri.

  7. #57
    Your 2014 NY Yankees JDPNYY's Avatar
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Lightning in a bottle baby!
    Pardon, for us.

  8. #58
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerkface View Post
    He has been bad for 2 years, and is older. Older players dont play at their career numbers, they tend to decline. I don't think OBJECTIVELY there is an equal chance of those 2 outcomes. Any outcome for Vernon wells is weighted towards bad performance, given that he has been bad most recently and is not getting younger. He has a non-zero chance of being average or even good. It is not the same chance that he will be as bad as he has been or worse. That is your optimism speaking.
    Thank God we didn't have that attitude about Derek Jeter after his 2010 .270/.340//370/.710 season following his .334/.406/.465/.871 2009 season. We might have missed his .316/.362/.429/.791 2012 season.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  9. #59

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    Thank God we didn't have that attitude about Derek Jeter after his 2010 .270/.340//370/.710 season following his .334/.406/.465/.871 2009 season. We might have missed his .316/.362/.429/.791 2012 season.
    Jeter is an inner circle 1st ballot hall of famer, those guys tend to have unnatural careers, and his 'return to form' was still below his career numbers, and bolstered by some babip luck vs RHP. He has always crushed LHP even in his down years. Now look at Vernon Wells, non inner circle hall of famer, whose career slash line is WORSE than Jeter's 2012 season.

  10. #60
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    I don't see how you can use BABIP to discredit Jeter while ignoring Wells' low BABIP the last two years.

  11. #61
    First Name: Keninovich hardrain's Avatar
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    At least he will be able to corral the errant throws from Scissorhands. That has to count for something.
    We toast to the old days and DiMaggio too,
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  12. #62

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    I don't see how you can use BABIP to discredit Jeter while ignoring Wells' low BABIP the last two years.
    BABIPs are not created equally. Vernon Wells hits lots of flyballs and not a lot of linedrives, he has had below average babips like his entire career. He pops up a lot, like... near the most in baseball a lot (20th most often from 1999-2012).

    Jeter on the other hand is a great hitter who has above average babips all the time, but has clearly lost a step vs RHP. He had a good season vs them last year, lots of singles, while still crushing LHP. Had he not hurt his ankle I still would have pegged him as being a bit worse this year because righties still eat him up.

  13. #63
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    I'm comparing Wells to his own career BABIP. His line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates were all at his career norms, and his ISO didn't dip. There's no perfect science behind future projections (obviously) but Wells has stats that scream bad luck just as much as decline. His defense is okay and I think it's more than fair to project a 105+ wRC. With good luck, I wouldn't be surprised to get 115 but I wouldn't bet on that.

  14. #64

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by DaBliz View Post
    I'm comparing Wells to his own career BABIP. His line drive, ground ball, and fly ball rates were all at his career norms, and his ISO didn't dip. There's no perfect science behind future projections (obviously) but Wells has stats that scream bad luck just as much as decline. His defense is okay and I think it's more than fair to project a 105+ wRC. With good luck, I wouldn't be surprised to get 115 but I wouldn't bet on that.
    The batted ball percents don't tell you the quality of the batted balls though. He has had back to back years of crappy BABIP, probably because he hits the ball like a bum. I'd project him to have wRC in the 80s, like he has mostly had the past 5 years.

    Edit: Even if he had a .270 babip last year he still OBP's .300 and stinks.

  15. #65

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerkface View Post
    Jeter is an inner circle 1st ballot hall of famer, those guys tend to have unnatural careers, and his 'return to form' was still below his career numbers, and bolstered by some babip luck vs RHP. He has always crushed LHP even in his down years. Now look at Vernon Wells, non inner circle hall of famer, whose career slash line is WORSE than Jeter's 2012 season.
    There is no bigger defender of Jeter than I, but I totally agree that last year was a mirage on a couple of levels.

    Not that he wasn't solid...obviously he was....but 2012 was one of his three or four worst seasons ever. Not by a whole ton, obviously, but he was both lucky and also bolstered by exceeding low expectations.

    He was pretty much off his career averages straight through the board.

  16. #66
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    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by YankeeFan1421 View Post
    There is no bigger defender of Jeter than I, but I totally agree that last year was a mirage on a couple of levels.

    Not that he wasn't solid...obviously he was....but 2012 was one of his three or four worst seasons ever. Not by a whole ton, obviously, but he was both lucky and also bolstered by exceeding low expectations.

    He was pretty much off his career averages straight through the board.
    you talking offense only? Clearly he's had better seasons, but was third in the MLB in wRC+ for SS.

  17. #67

    Re: Yankees announce Lyle Overbay signing

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    you talking offense only? Clearly he's had better seasons, but was third in the MLB in wRC+ for SS.
    Didn't realize that and it's a good point.

    More reacting to the idea that last year was a better than average Jeter year..which it clearly was not. Though obviously he wasn't far below his career standards, if memory serves he was slightly off on each individual stat, except for batting average, and I do think I saw some luckiness in some of the numbers...but I would have to dig in more to that.

    "Mirage" was a poor choice of words...he clearly had a terrific season and beyond what I would have expected (and I think virtually all would say the same), but technically it was a bit of a decline...though if he was 30 years old it would just be written off to random distribution, so perhaps that's not even fair.

    I definitely could see a different approach last year as he was selling out faster at the plate...nothing wrong with that to compensate for slowing bat speed, but I do wonder if pitchers will somehow adjust this year...

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