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  1. #126

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    yes, with one player you get yearly data on his perofmrance. but players are the thing being analyzed, not years. so to get a trend on how players perform as they age you need more than 1 player
    always reasonable

  2. #127

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    you need more than 1 player
    I'm done with this and putting you on ignore. You clearly are baiting and I'm done with it.
    EvilEmpireDC: Fans bitch about anything lol

  3. #128

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    read again snapple
    always reasonable

  4. #129

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    read again snapple
    No, you fking don't. I'm not looking at a trend of fking old players, I'm looking at one player's numbers and seeing if there is a downward trend, which there fking isn't. For real, I am done with you.
    EvilEmpireDC: Fans bitch about anything lol

  5. #130

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    i'll do this just because you are cute.

    if you have a 45 year old putting up good numbers(5, 5, 5, 5, 5) year after year, what's the chance of him kee1ping that performance?

    not good?


    how would you be able to tell this in comparison to a 24 year old putting up the same numbers(5, 5, 5, 5, 5)? after all, their year by year performance is the same!

    it's not like a weather time series for all temperatures in july in a certain place. that place doesn't change so year by year are INDEPENDENT SAMPLES.

    when you are talking about aging you are not talking about years but about players and age. that means a sample unit is a particular player and not a particular year. you get a trend by looking at a lot of players, and not one player and his number of years.

    that way you can tlel the difference between (5, 5, 5, 5, 5,) and (5, 5, 5, 5, 5,) because the first one is by a 45 year old and the second one is by a 24 year old.
    always reasonable

  6. #131
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Under.........^ they make a cute couple...........

    "Happy Wife.........Happy Life" - unknown

  7. #132
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    I think this is one of the toughest teams to predict. The pitching is decent, the offense isn't what we're used to but I don't think it's going to be awful.

    I can see us winning 90 games, not sure about postseason.

  8. #133

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    I say around 90 wins as well. This team can still be competitive as long as the pitching stays strong (and it looks like it will). I can see them starting slowly because half of the lineup is on the DL, but they will gain steam once the heart of their lineup comes back (better than any mid-season acquisition on the trading market!). I also just don't think a down season or two is the end of the world. So they've hit a little wall here. They need a few years to refresh their team, let some of the bloated contracts come off the books and some of their lower-level minor leaguers mature. These things always go in cycles. Even if they struggle this season (or, more likely, just in the first half of it), it doesn't necessarily mean the beginning of a long stretch of futility. This doesn't *have* to be an all-or-nothing, '65 situation.

  9. #134
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Here's a guy says 91 wins and they win the AL East. And New York Magzine paid him to write it:

    http://nymag.com/news/sports/games/yankees-2013-4/

  10. #135

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    with a good supplier maybe.
    always reasonable

  11. #136
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    Man, such a pessimist.

    I have this team at 114-48 for the regular season and 10-0 in the post-season.

    I also have Boston losing 110 games this season and the Colorado Rockies relocating to Havana mid-season due to the humidor going out, requiring the relo.
    The acquisition of Wells makes me reconsider - I see Wells as a 3 WAR this season, so now I am adjusting my projection to 117-45. No change to the 10-0 post season record, however.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  12. #137

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Unless the World Series gets cancelled after 3 games, it's not possible to go 10-0 in the postseason.

  13. #138

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by pleasepassthesoup View Post
    Unless the World Series gets cancelled after 3 games, it's not possible to go 10-0 in the postseason.
    I'm honestly picking the Yankees as 1-0 in the postseason, then the entire team dies in a bus crush. It's inevitable at this point.
    EvilEmpireDC: Fans bitch about anything lol

  14. #139
    Released Outright YogiKnows's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    I wonder if anyone expected the Yankee collapse in 1965. The team had legendary heroes like Mantle, Maris, Ford, Howard, etc., that fans would hang their hopes on, regardless of their age or increased possibility of injury (sound familiar?). Plus, they had a young stud named Stottlemyre, not to mention other promising youngsters as part of the mix, like Downing, White, Boyer, Tresh, Clarke, and Pepitone. Wow, a rotation of consisting of Ford, Stottlemyre, Bouton and Downing! Surely, the Yanks could never fail - after all, they are the Yankees.

    I will say that my dad said that he sensed that things weren't quite right and that they might not finish 1st, but never did he imagine such a collapse. Welcome to 1965 again. I'd love to hear from those members that witnessed this firsthand.

    Meanwhile, the Kool Aid is overflowing.
    This. Everyone who's being optimistic in this thread is going to yammer "we couldn't foresee that we'd be continually devastated by injury"...yeah.. really ? Yes it's not only foreseeable, it's pretty much inevitable. There is no 'plan' beyond getting under the tax, I expect Cashman will be gone in 2 years, and Hal is going to be about as incompetent as those wonderful CBS corporate types were as stewards of the Yankee tradition. I am one of those who saw it firsthand, 77-78 this year, thereafter we're a team with one or 2 stars and irrelevant to the playoffs for years.

    No one will be happier than me if I'm completely wrong.
    Last edited by YogiKnows; 03-27-13 at 10:11 AM. Reason: spelling

  15. #140

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by -tz View Post
    Here's a guy says 91 wins and they win the AL East. And New York Magzine paid him to write it:

    http://nymag.com/news/sports/games/yankees-2013-4/
    A friend sent this to me. He is smoking crack.

  16. #141
    why me Lord? NoWay's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by BRNXBMRS View Post
    A friend sent this to me. He is smoking crack.
    I like the line where the author quotes PECOTA ratings. PECOTA, unless I'm mistaken, doesn't take into account age and physical decline.

  17. #142

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    it does. pecota is heavily regressed to age-mean
    always reasonable

  18. #143

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Those referencing 1965 are doing so only because it relates to a sinking of a Yankee dynasty. It has VERY little to do with 2013. The game is completely different (more teams, more playoff possibilities, free agency, etc. etc. etc.). Additionally, this Yankee team has very good pitching, starting through relief. It's also much easier to re-tool or reinforce mid-season than it was back then, and there is a lot more parity throughout the game.

    It's completely possible the Yanks miss the playoffs this year, but it's also completely possible the win the division again. Their team has question marks, but lots of talent. If you ask me, I'd put the win range somewhere around 89-92. I simply think the pitching is good enough to keep them hovering until midyear, when they have the potential to have a very strong lineup once again.

  19. #144
    why me Lord? NoWay's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    it does. pecota is heavily regressed to age-mean
    In that case, a projection of 91 wins doesn't make sense to me. Of course, I'm definitely an old-school kind of guy who thinks that most of these sabermetric-type statistics are crap to begin with.

    How many playoff series have the A's won since Billy Beane took over as GM and started playing with these numbers?

  20. #145
    why me Lord? NoWay's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by gold23 View Post
    It's completely possible the Yanks miss the playoffs this year, but it's also completely possible the win the division again. Their team has question marks, but lots of talent. If you ask me, I'd put the win range somewhere around 89-92. I simply think the pitching is good enough to keep them hovering until midyear, when they have the potential to have a very strong lineup once again.
    You have to assume health and a measure of luck with this. Granted, anything is possible, but when I look at the age of guys like Kiroda and Pettite, along with CC's stints on the DL last year...I have a tendency to get a little nervous.

  21. #146

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by NoWay View Post
    You have to assume health and a measure of luck with this. Granted, anything is possible, but when I look at the age of guys like Kiroda and Pettite, along with CC's stints on the DL last year...I have a tendency to get a little nervous.
    Certainly. But then you go to the next step..... Pineda might help mid-season, Phelps/Nova is a better 6th option than almost every other team, and if the Yanks are in contention they will have more $ to throw at rentals than almost every other AL team.

    Every team needs luck to an extent, but the Yanks are set up to weather hits to their strength- total pitching- better than most.

  22. #147

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by NoWay View Post
    In that case, a projection of 91 wins doesn't make sense to me. Of course, I'm definitely an old-school kind of guy who thinks that most of these sabermetric-type statistics are crap to begin with.

    How many playoff series have the A's won since Billy Beane took over as GM and started playing with these numbers?
    You're talking about two completely different things. The big-time sabermetric stats like WAR have a lot more value in predicting wins over 162 games than they do in predicting playoff series.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  23. #148

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    i don't know if they've taken injuries like tex into account.
    always reasonable

  24. #149

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Here's Baseball Prospectus' odds page--last updated 3/22:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
    27 World Championships
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  25. #150
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Coffee View Post
    Here's Baseball Prospectus' odds page--last updated 3/22:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/
    Adjusted playoff percentage at 56.9%

    Hope I'm wrong but that's about how I feel with this team right now.

    Chances of making the postseason maybe slightly more than a coin flip.
    Jimmy G. (Seniority 03/28/1994)
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