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  1. #101
    Sunny days ahead YankeePride1967's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    It seems like most took the over, though I didn't count; you might be right. It just seems that the overly optimistic (rather delusional...okay, I kid) seem the loudest, often trying to drown out or mock those who aren't enamored with this club.
    I don't think there are enough people picking the over that would have a prayer of drowning out those picking the under. One thing I would like a comparison of he 65 pitching staff (start and relief). I can understand predicting in the 80's but with our pitching I think that will get us in the 80's. Now playoffs, I think that is not likely.

  2. #102

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    It seems like most took the over, though I didn't count; you might be right. It just seems that the overly optimistic (rather delusional...okay, I kid) seem the loudest, often trying to drown out or mock those who aren't enamored with this club.
    I completely get both sides of the equation this year, feel they both have merit. I'm just not very enamored with any team in the AL east, most in the Central, and a few in the West. For this reason I can't write off NY, especially not knowing when the injured will actually return. Plus, you don't get the true feel of what's going on until after the ASB.
    Team Northern Lights

  3. #103
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    I wonder if anyone expected the Yankee collapse in 1965. The team had legendary heroes like Mantle, Maris, Ford, Howard, etc., that fans would hang their hopes on, regardless of their age or increased possibility of injury (sound familiar?). Plus, they had a young stud named Stottlemyre, not to mention other promising youngsters as part of the mix, like Downing, White, Boyer, Tresh, Clarke, and Pepitone. Wow, a rotation of consisting of Ford, Stottlemyre, Bouton and Downing! Surely, the Yanks could never fail - after all, they are the Yankees.

    I will say that my dad said that he sensed that things weren't quite right and that they might not finish 1st, but never did he imagine such a collapse. Welcome to 1965 again. I'd love to hear from those members that witnessed this firsthand.

    Meanwhile, the Kool Aid is overflowing.
    I was there for this. As a kid, I spent years rooting and hoping for great things from a team who was supposed to win because they were the Yankees, but didn't win because they were loaded with a patchwork of a few talented young players, lots of mediocre players, and an assortment of former stars in their decline. There was also very little major league ready talent to speak of coming up from the farm. I hope this isn't as bad as that, but it sure doesn't feel a whole lot different right at the moment.
    Yankee fan living in Maine.

  4. #104

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by apalradio View Post
    I hope this isn't as bad as that, but it sure doesn't feel a whole lot different right at the moment.
    Respectfully, it is a whole lot different and always will be.

    In 1965, only one team from each league made the postseason; there was no free agency, and the process of remaking a roster took much longer; and the scale of the Yankees' financial advantage was nothing like it is today.

    In other words, the 1965 Yankees were very far away from competing again. Even if the 2013 Yankees go 62-100, it's not that hard to imagine them in the 2014 playoffs.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  5. #105
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    I wonder if anyone expected the Yankee collapse in 1965. The team had legendary heroes like Mantle, Maris, Ford, Howard, etc., that fans would hang their hopes on, regardless of their age or increased possibility of injury (sound familiar?). Plus, they had a young stud named Stottlemyre, not to mention other promising youngsters as part of the mix, like Downing, White, Boyer, Tresh, Clarke, and Pepitone. Wow, a rotation of consisting of Ford, Stottlemyre, Bouton and Downing! Surely, the Yanks could never fail - after all, they are the Yankees.

    I will say that my dad said that he sensed that things weren't quite right and that they might not finish 1st, but never did he imagine such a collapse. Welcome to 1965 again. I'd love to hear from those members that witnessed this firsthand.

    Meanwhile, the Kool Aid is overflowing.
    There were several factors that contributed to the 1965 collapse. Johnny Keane's manageral style was not liked by the veteran Yankees players. The Yankees had not played really well in 1964 until the last month and a half of the season when Stottlemyre joined the team. A really bad run of injuries plus after having finished first the previous 5 seasons the players really did not care once the team had fallen far out of the race. Other than Stottlemyre the farm system did not help in 1965. White was still a few seasons away and Tresh never became a solid player after his first few seasons. Even without the draft Murcer was not major league ready in 1965.
    If you look back to the 1965-66 off season most people thought the Yankees would "bounce back" and be a contender again in 1966. Of course that did not happen.

  6. #106

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by d32123 View Post
    This might just be the dumbest article I've ever read. NESPN is such a ****ing joke.
    Quote Originally Posted by d32123 View Post
    all of them
    So, you issue a blanket disagreement with the entire article? That sounds pretty rational.

    While a number of the points are plainly irrelevant, e.g. no. 2, there are more than a few points that are well worth considering, in particular nos. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 18, 19 and certainly no. 27.
    I can't complain but sometimes I still do. - Joe Walsh

  7. #107

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Man View Post
    So, you issue a blanket disagreement with the entire article? That sounds pretty rational.

    While a number of the points are plainly irrelevant, e.g. no. 2, there are more than a few points that are well worth considering, in particular nos. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 18, 19 and certainly no. 27.
    Kuroda put up a 3.9 WAR last year, 2.2 in 2011 and 4.0 WAR in 2010. That's roughly an average of 3.36 WAR, which I'd assume would just round to 3.4 WAR. His lowest WAR was a 2.1 WAR in 2009, which was one of his worst years. I'd say it's reasonable to expect a 3.0 WAR from Kuroda in 2013, but I'll lowball it at 2.5 WAR.

    Pettitte put up a 1.7 WAR in 2012 with 75.1 IP. Unless he completely shts the bed, I don't see him at least getting to a 2.0 WAR (he had a 2.3 in 2010 with roughly 60 more IP).

    So, let's say Pettitte and Kuroda combine for a war of 4.5-5 (I'd argue that's reasonable based on their previous seasons). If you average out CC's WAR over the last 4 seasons, you get a 5.875, which I'd assume would round up to 5.9. Last year, CC put up a 4.8 WAR. So, why is it hard to believe that these 3 starters can't put up 10 WAR again? Over the last 4 years (which even has Pettitte at a higher number, if you include 2009), these guys have pitched pretty much the same with a bit of variance in their WAR. But even if they pitch to their LOWS in WAR, they'd still hit about 10. CC's 4.8 WAR in 2012 was his lowest since 2005.

    So no, I do not buy point #5. Nothing these pitchers have done in the last 4-5 years warrants assuming that they cannot combine for 10 WAR again.


    15. Is equally stupid. A wash isn't a knock against the Yankees. Soriano was average at best as a setup man (0.3 WAR, 4.12 ERA). Joba can do what Soriano did in 2011 no problem. Aardsma can probably reproduce it. I like Soriano as a closer, but as a setup guy he did not get the job done as well as some people seem to think.

    18. Home runs are not the only way to score runs. Other teams score plenty of runs without relying on homeruns. #18 reminds me of "BUZZZZZZZZWORDS TO SELL PAPERZZ". They may score less, but they're not only going to score 200 runs over the course of the season.

    19. You'll be surprised at how much Gardner will improve the runs saved department. He still has more runs saved in LF since 2010...even with missing almost the entire season last year.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  8. #108
    Pinpoint False1's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Man View Post
    So, you issue a blanket disagreement with the entire article? That sounds pretty rational.

    While a number of the points are plainly irrelevant, e.g. no. 2, there are more than a few points that are well worth considering, in particular nos. 5, 7, 9, 10, 12, 15, 18, 19 and certainly no. 27.
    I think it's pretty clear Schoenfield was just coming up with as many scenarios as he could (interesting he stopped at 27) to support the notion the Yankees could drop a peg or more this season. You could have come up with a similar list last year. And you could come up with a similar list this year for every AL East team except perhaps the Rays. While many of the items on this laundry list are concerns, not all of them will manifest. And after the offseason the team has had, I'd argue the "baseball gods" referenced in #26 actually are due to allow a few unexpected good things to happen.

    Even now, I like the Yankees chances to have more Ws than the Sox, O's, and Jays. If the Rays struggle to hit or have injury issues, they're vulnerable too.

  9. #109

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    110-52
    always reasonable

  10. #110
    Tends to be difficult JL25and3's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Murcer came up for cups of coffee in 1965 and 1966, playing in the minors the rest of those two seasons. His military service was in 1967-8.

    As far as the pitching staff goes, the biggest difference from 1964 to 1965 was that Whitey Ford went from being great to merely being okay. Bouton blew his arm out, but was replaced by Stottlemyre; Downing was pretty much the same; and in both years, they didn't have much beyond their top three starters.

    The pitching wasn't that bad in 1965 - in fact, through most of the lean years, the pitching wasn't that bad. The bigger problem was that their run production fell way off. Elston Howard hit like a 36-year-old catcher, Richardson and Kubek never could hit much, Maris was hurt, Pepitone still didn't live up to expectations, and Mantle - who missed 40 games and was starting to get old in a hurry - couldn't carry the team by himself.
    A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.
    - Barry Manilow

  11. #111
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    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by JL25and3 View Post
    Murcer came up for cups of coffee in 1965 and 1966, playing in the minors the rest of those two seasons. His military service was in 1967-8.

    As far as the pitching staff goes, the biggest difference from 1964 to 1965 was that Whitey Ford went from being great to merely being okay. Bouton blew his arm out, but was replaced by Stottlemyre; Downing was pretty much the same; and in both years, they didn't have much beyond their top three starters.

    The pitching wasn't that bad in 1965 - in fact, through most of the lean years, the pitching wasn't that bad. The bigger problem was that their run production fell way off. Elston Howard hit like a 36-year-old catcher, Richardson and Kubek never could hit much, Maris was hurt, Pepitone still didn't live up to expectations, and Mantle - who missed 40 games and was starting to get old in a hurry - couldn't carry the team by himself.
    You are right about the pitching. It actually got better during the lean years since Peterson, Kekich and Bahnsen would join the rotation replacing Ford and Bouton. It was the aged lineup and the early retirements of Kubek and Richardson that really hurt things.

  12. #112

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    No one wants to refute my post?
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  13. #113

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    I'll try. I think some does want to, but probably hasn't had time.
    I could be wrong, and I want to know where.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  14. #114

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    I could be wrong, and I want to know where.
    You assumed nobody wanted to refute it.
    Team Northern Lights

  15. #115

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    snapple you moved the goalpost on the pitcher question. he didn't say they can't go over 10, he just said he would bet the under. pretty reasonable

    the soriano thing is mainly about volatility. soriano is a lower risk than joba et al
    always reasonable

  16. #116

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    snapple you moved the goalpost on the pitcher question. he didn't say they can't go over 10, he just said he would bet the under. pretty reasonable

    the soriano thing is mainly about volatility. soriano is a lower risk than joba et al
    How did I move the goalpost? he said he'd bet the under on CC/Kuroda/Pettitte, and I showed evidence that there is really nothing in their recent pitching history that would warrant that.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  17. #117

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    you said it's not impossible to be over 10. he didn't say that. he said he's just going to bet the under with mainly age as a concern. that's perfeclty reasonable
    always reasonable

  18. #118

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    you said it's not impossible to be over 10. he didn't say that. he said he's just going to bet the under with mainly age as a concern. that's perfeclty reasonable
    Okay, so I cited a reasonable argument for betting the over in my defense that there is nothing in the past 4 years that really warrants betting the under. Wow, sounds like I killed two birds with one stone. I didn't move the goal post.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  19. #119

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    that par of your post didn't make a convincing move for betting the over. it's only to keep the possibility open.

    given the age of the pitchers
    always reasonable

  20. #120

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    that par of your post didn't make a convincing move for betting the over. it's only to keep the possibility open.

    given the age of the pitchers
    Legit concern, but I have cited numbers that prove that age hasn't been much of a factor for Kuroda..and barely for Pettitte.

    Mild worry doesn't supersede statistics. The guy on E!SPN cited WAR and fell under the guise of age to justify his betting the under. I went back 4 years and showed that there is nothing in the 4 years to show for betting the under. Don't be an ass.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  21. #121

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    it's not a mild worry. age talk is backed up by general trends, with tens of thousands of players' historic progression. individual records are true until htey are not, how likely that they are not true? look at the history
    always reasonable

  22. #122

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    it's not a mild worry. age talk is backed up by general trends, with tens of thousands of players' historic progression. individual records are true until htey are not, how likely that they are not true? look at the history
    Whatever, there is no actual TREND that shows they will be bad. I'm using numbers to argue against a guy who is betting against numbers because of "LOL YANKEES IS OLD". I'm done arguing with you.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  23. #123

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    the trend is in the general idea that older players perform worse
    always reasonable

  24. #124

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    also, trend is a statistical term applied to a population. your population has a size of 1. that's not even a trend
    always reasonable

  25. #125

    Re: 2013 Yankees over/under win prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by awy View Post
    also, trend is a statistical term applied to a population. your population has a size of 1. that's not even a trend
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trend_estimation

    Not even close.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

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