The 12th Annual NYYFans.com Prediction Contest - 2013 Edition

[Mr Coffee]

LOL - that's the strategy I've used for years. This year, I waited too long and LITERALLY got in with like 2 minutes to spare. However, I had to TBD a few free form questions just to ensure I got my entry in. When I went back to edit/update, I was out of time. So unless there are rookies named "TBD" that come in and dominate, I'm thinking I'm getting none of those questions right.

And yet you will still finish ahead of me.

[NJ Fan]

So unless there are rookies named "TBD" that come in and dominate, I'm thinking I'm getting none of those questions right.

baseballreference.com better have their names listed exactly that way though.

[longtimeyankeefan]

I don't understand why every year people make the same requests about not knowing when the deadline is.

Don't they know you're supposed to enter your picks right away, promise yourself you'll go back and edit them closer to the deadline, forget to do that and wonder why your picks are so bad later on?

Or, alternatively, get your picks in early, then obsess over every little bit of news that comes out of spring training (Tex gets injured - gotta change his numbers and the opening day batting order; Diaz gets cut - gotta change him from a YES to a NO on the opening day roster, et cetera).

JDNYY - is it possible to get a count of who changed their entry the most times? I am pretty sure I am in the top 10 of that list.

[JDPNYY]

Or, alternatively, get your picks in early, then obsess over every little bit of news that comes out of spring training (Tex gets injured - gotta change his numbers and the opening day batting order; Diaz gets cut - gotta change him from a YES to a NO on the opening day roster, et cetera).

JDNYY - is it possible to get a count of who changed their entry the most times? I am pretty sure I am in the top 10 of that list.

Listen you, you... If you call me JDNYY one more time, why, I'll... I'll... I'll get really mad.


(Lou may know the answer to that)

[sweet_lou_14]

Listen you, you... If you call me JDNYY one more time, why, I'll... I'll... I'll get really mad.


(Lou may know the answer to that)

Nope, the system doesn't record the number of times you re-submit your entries.

[ymike673]

I don't understand why every year people make the same requests about not knowing when the deadline is.

Don't they know you're supposed to enter your picks right away, promise yourself you'll go back and edit them closer to the deadline, forget to do that and wonder why your picks are so bad later on?

That's what I did. I did edit my entry a few times but was busy at the deadline so I could not do a final edit. But I hope to be in the top 50!

[longtimeyankeefan]

Listen you, you... If you call me JDNYY one more time, why, I'll... I'll... I'll get really mad.


(Lou may know the answer to that)

JDPNYY: My bad - I certainly don't want you mad at me.

And, again - thanks to you (and Lou) for the contest. It is fun to see how things work out.

Just one thing. How can I be the only person to guess 3,801,203 as the season's attendance?

[sweet_lou_14]

JDPNYY: My bad - I certainly don't want you mad at me.

And, again - thanks to you (and Lou) for the contest. It is fun to see how things work out.

Just one thing. How can I be the only person to guess 3,801,203 as the season's attendance?

I guessed that number last year, no way was I making that mistake twice.

[DontHateOnNumber2]

Spent 10 minutes incorrectly logging in a couple of weeks back. Definitely forgot what my password was because it wasn't supposed to be my NYYFans one. Should've gotten a safe deposit for it all those years ago damn it.

[Dave Visbeck]

Spent 10 minutes incorrectly logging in a couple of weeks back. Definitely forgot what my password was because it wasn't supposed to be my NYYFans one. Should've gotten a safe deposit for it all those years ago damn it.

It's okay, I'll share my entry and picks with you.

[DontHateOnNumber2]

It's okay, I'll share my entry and picks with you.

Ah Dave, no need for that but I greatly appreciate it! Perhaps one day the password will just hit me again!

[fredgmuggs]

If Jeter doesn't make opening day my line-up will be be even more screwed up than it already is.

by the way, I was wondering if Diaz counted as the first dfa or does the player have to be on the roster during the regular season?

[JDPNYY]

If Jeter doesn't make opening day my line-up will be be even more screwed up than it already is.

by the way, I was wondering if Diaz counted as the first dfa or does the player have to be on the roster during the regular season?

It is the first DFA after the season begins. I actually meant to take that question out. I have grown to hate that question.

[effdamets]

It is the first DFA after the season begins. I actually meant to take that question out. I have grown to hate that question.

I hate that question too. Considering I put Diaz down as my answer!

[ymike673]

I hate that question too. Considering I put Diaz down as my answer!

I did too!

[JDPNYY]

It is, quite simply, a dopey question.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

If Jeter doesn't make opening day my line-up will be be even more screwed up than it already is.

This was the first year those questions were actually hard, and now it may be even more of a mess if Jeter doesn't play opening day

[longtimeyankeefan]

After seeing the opening rotation set on the NYY tickets website, I checked out my rotation - got it right. CC, Kuroda & Pettitte.

What I can't understand is that the system said that no one selected Kuroda to start the second game of the season, despite the fact that the system shows that choice as my answer

Of course, stupid me, I put Cervelli down as the opening day catcher, completely forgetting that Stewart was basically CC's porter all last season -

Lou/JDPNYY - Is it possible to profile some of the answers. For example, I would love to see the distribution of how entrants have the teams records after certain points - for example, am I an optomist for thinking we will be 7-3 after ten games?

[Mr Coffee]

After seeing the opening rotation set on the NYY tickets website, I checked out my rotation - got it right. CC, Kuroda & Pettitte.

What I can't understand is that the system said that no one selected Kuroda to start the second game of the season, despite the fact that the system shows that choice as my answer

Works for me:



Did you use their whole names and not "CC", "Kuroda" and "Pettitte"?

[Yankee Tripper]

What I can't understand is that the system said that no one selected Kuroda to start the second game of the season, despite the fact that the system shows that choice as my answer

Pretty sure quite a few of us have that.

[Gusto]

What I can't understand is that the system said that no one selected Kuroda to start the second game of the season, despite the fact that the system shows that choice as my answer

Did you honk up his name, like I did?

Edit ... I'm sorry Lou. Ill drink a beer in your honor.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Works for me:



Did you use their whole names and not "CC", "Kuroda" and "Pettitte"?

Here is how mine shows:

Who or what will be ...
Question 2.1 The Yankees' Opening Day starting pitcher? CC Sabathia 44 (83.02%)
Question 2.2 The second different Yankee pitcher to start a game? Hiroki Kuroda (0.00%)
Question 2.3 The third different Yankee pitcher to start a game? Andy Pettitte 32 (60.38%)

It's the 0.00% that baffles me - on all the other questions where I was the only one to answer in a certain way, at least it shows the 1.89%, but not on this question.

Regardless of what my answer is, even if I had selected Whitey Ford to start the second game, it should register the answer.

[sweet_lou_14]

Here is how mine shows:

Who or what will be ...
Question 2.1 The Yankees' Opening Day starting pitcher? CC Sabathia 44 (83.02%)
Question 2.2 The second different Yankee pitcher to start a game? Hiroki Kuroda (0.00%)
Question 2.3 The third different Yankee pitcher to start a game? Andy Pettitte 32 (60.38%)

It's the 0.00% that baffles me - on all the other questions where I was the only one to answer in a certain way, at least it shows the 1.89%, but not on this question.

Regardless of what my answer is, even if I had selected Whitey Ford to start the second game, it should register the answer.

The reason you were seeing this is that you entered "Hiroki Kuroda " (note the extra space at the end). I have removed the space and you should now see the same thing everyone else does.

Every year, after the entries are all in but before the season starts, I have to go through and normalize the responses ... it's a somewhat tedious process, which is why I ask everyone to do as much as they can to avoid non-standard responses, particularly with player names. For example (not trying to pick on you), I also had to fix your answer to Question 2.5 ("Phillip Hughes").

If I get time today, I will try to finish the normalization process, otherwise it will happen during the week. This will of course change the percentages you see for the number of contestants who shared your response to various questions.

[JDPNYY]

For your sake Lou... it's good hardly anyone joined this year.

[sweet_lou_14]

For your sake Lou... it's good hardly anyone joined this year.

Ha ... of course, I'd much rather have more work in exchange for more participation. I don't know if anyone finds the "behind the scenes" stuff interesting, but just in case, here's a peek now that the responses have all been normalized.

A year or two ago, I made this exercise a bit less tedious by creating a "mapping table" between invalid responses and valid ones. By adding to this table each year, I can "teach" the system how to auto-correct some responses. Now, this isn't by any means foolproof. This year, "Johnson" maps to "Dan Johnson" but in the past it might have meant "Nick Johnson" or "Randy Johnson." This year somebody entered "Rivera" and I had to look up the question to decide if they meant Juan or Mariano.

To give you an idea, this year the following names were added to the "valid player name" list:
Aaron Hicks
Adam Eaton
Adam Warren
A.J. Griffin
Adrian Beltre
Austin Jackson
Austin Romine
Ben Francisco
Brennan Boesch
Casey Kelly
Che-Hsuan Lin
Chia-Jen Lo
Chris Archer
Chris Stewart
Christian Yelich
Cody Eppley
Corban Joseph
Dan Johnson
Dan Straily
Danny Hultzen
Darin Ruf
Dylan Bundy
George Springer
Gerrit Cole
Hyun-Jin Ryu
Jayson Nix
Jedd Gyorko
Jose Fernandez
Jose Reyes
Juan Rivera
Julio Teheran
Jurickson Profar
Kenley Jansen
Kevin Youkilis
Kyle Gibson
Kyuji Fujikawa
Matt Diaz
Melky Mesa
Mike Olt
Mike Zunino
Nik Turley
Nolan Arenado
Oscar Taveras
Jonathan Schoop
Prince Fielder
R. A. Dickey
Rubby De La Rosa
Shawn Kelley
Shelby Miller
Tony Cingrani
Travis d'Arnaud
Travis Hafner
Trevor Bauer
Trevor Rosenthal
Tyler Skaggs
Wil Myers
Zack Wheeler
Zoilo Almonte

Every year, the most tedious part of the job is handling the rookie questions, as it always means the introduction of a couple dozen new names I've never heard of. Since these are just tiebreaker questions, I might want to recommend we ditch these in the future. John, you seem to want to eliminate the DFA question as well ... this might be a good idea as it also introduces tons of "fringe" names.

There is also the continuing tradition of people trying to be clever about saying they don't know what to put down ... this includes entering the handles of other forumers, etc. Since I'm just about the only one who ever reads these, I guess I should be flattered that people would like to make me laugh, but I want to reiterate that the humor isn't reaching a very wide audience and it only creates work for me.

Again, just for the curious, here are the misspellings and other invalid responses that needed to be mapped and fixed this year:
-tz
aaron hicks
adrian beltre
AJ Griffin
Andy Pettite
Austine Romine
Bauer
Ben Fransico
Bret Gardner
Brett Gardener
Brett Gardiner
Bub
Bundy
Bundy, Balt
C C Sabathia
Cano
Casey Kelley
CC
Cervelli
Chamberlain
Chris Stweart
D'Arnaud
David Robinson
Deter Jeter
Diaz
Dickey
dn
do not know
Don Johnson
Dunno
Four
Francisco Cerveli
Franciso Cervelli
Fransisco Cervelli
Gardner
Granderson
Gyorko
Haffner
Hafner
Hefner
Hideki Kuroda
Hiro Kuroda
Hiruki Kuroda
Hughes
Huroki Kuroda
I will get this wrong
Ichiro
Ichiro Sukuzi
Ichiro!
J. Profar
Jason Nix
JDPNYY
Jed Gyorko
Jedd Gyorki
Jerad Weaver
Jerod Weaver
Jeter
Johnson
Kelley
Kevin Youkalis
Kevin Youkillis
Kevin Youklis
Kuroda
Logan
Mesa
more than 1. Excactly
Myers
Nova
Nunez
Ocscar Taveras
Oscar Tavares
Oscar Tevaras
Pettite
Pettitte
Phelps
Profar
Rivera
Robertson
Robinso Cano
Romine
Sabathia
Sheldon Miller, Cardinals
Shoop, Baltimore
Skaggs
snapple
Stewart
Suzuki
Tbd
Teixeira
Texeria
theDurk
Three
Tifosa
Tony Cirngrani
Travis d'Arnaud, Mets
Travis d’Arnaud
Travis D´ Arnaud
Travis Haffner
Trever Bauer
Trout
Tyler Skaggs
Verlander
Warren
Weaver
Wil Meyers
Will Myers
Youk
Youkalis
Youkilis
Youkillis
yukalis
yukolis
Zach Wheeler
Zach Wheller

This contest is a labor of love and I don't mean to leave the impression that I'm complaining about the work it entails. But, if I could just encourage everyone to take a moment to check their spelling when filling out their entries, it would certainly simplify the process of cleaning up the database prior to Opening Day.

Thanks everyone, and good luck to all the participants!