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  1. #251

    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Gardner doesn't hit FA until 2015.

    He's not in trade talks because he's too valuable to give up.

    Sure he's not Ellsbury, but then Ellsbury was 2nd in MVP just two years ago.

  2. #252
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Gardner doesn't hit FA until 2015.

    He's not in trade talks because he's too valuable to give up.

    Sure he's not Ellsbury, but then Ellsbury was 2nd in MVP just two years ago.
    His final contract is 2014. Is it not?

    b/c he's too valuable? I'd love to see Cashman's fans react to losing Robi and holding onto Gardner. That's a great strategy.

    But this is my point. If he has value sell him, b/c we aren't going anywhere.
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  3. #253
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ARoDfan4life View Post
    No he's being over rated b/c our lineup is piss poor. He has speed and 40 SB capability but w/o a doubt he's a poor baserunner. Dave Roberts he isn't, Johnny D or Jose Reyes he isn't. He's not even Jacolby there. Let me ask you a simple question, if he's so valuable why isn't he being put in trade talks?
    you really are way off on this. First off, pretty glad he's not Dave Roberts. He's far superior offensively for starters, and per 162 Roberts had 47 SB with 11 CS. In his prior 2 full seasons Gardner was 48 SB with 11 CS. As shown earlier, he actually compares to Damon, who at one point played the same position. What does Reyes have to do with anything? Gardner's not in trade talks specifically because he is valuable.

    He's a FA in 2014. It's ridiculous to keep him and not have the middle of our line up secure, if he has value, the right move would be to deal someone like him, b/c top of the line up guys are more easy to find than middle of the line up help.
    No he's not. He's under team control until '15.

    There's only one important name that the Yankees should concern thierselves with and that's Robinson Cano. If he's a goner, everyone needs to be sold.
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  4. #254
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    you really are way off on this. First off, pretty glad he's not Dave Roberts. He's far superior offensively for starters, and per 162 Roberts had 47 SB with 11 CS. In his prior 2 full seasons Gardner was 48 SB with 11 CS. As shown earlier, he actually compares to Damon, who at one point played the same position. What does Reyes have to do with anything? He's not in trade talks specifically because he is valuable.

    No he's not. He's under team control until '15.

    dont quit your day job.
    base stealing at key moments, I'm not talking about their offense. Here's the type of gibberish that makes people think I'm anti Gardner, never did I compare them by offense, I said his base running for his ability, stinks. Also I said If Gardy has value you trade him before he loses it. He's 30, he's going to decline.

    So we have him 2 more years w/ no middle of the lineup, should be interesting.

    I won't.
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ARoDfan4life View Post
    base stealing a key moments. If Gardy has value you trade him before he loses it.

    So we have him 2 more years w/ no middle of the lineup should be interesting.

    I won't.
    So now we're talking clutch base stealing? You're really reaching.

    Was Gardner overrated in 2010 when the offense was strong?

  6. #256
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    BTW, what HAS happened to Brett swiping bases?

    He is on pace to steal about 25, and get caught stealing about 12.

    First, it is about half of his prior years. Next, the success rate sucks. (slightly over 50%, you need to be between roughly 67-69% successful to make it worth going.

    It seems that I am always yelling at the tv for him to go, and he just....stays put.
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  7. #257

    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    I've been saying forever he's getting bad advice to get aggressive on the bases for the sake of getting aggressive for years.

    Someone needs to just teach him how to read pitchers better.

  8. #258
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    I've been saying forever he's getting bad advice to get aggressive on the bases for the sake of getting aggressive for years.

    Someone needs to just teach him how to read pitchers better.
    so now he gets bad advice base stealing? No GI Joe and the Yankees never told him to be more aggressive.

    They have, he just for what ever reason doesn't.
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  9. #259
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by goin for 27 View Post
    It seems that I am always yelling at the tv for him to go, and he just....stays put.
    he never does.

    9th inning tie game, a singles hitter up. Well now it's Cano, who can jack one, but they aren't pitching to him. But he (Brett) doesn't ever get to 2nd. It got to the point Nunez had to do it. Called out (was really safe) but atleast he went. Gardy has this plus speed and does nothing with it. Nothing.
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  10. #260

    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    You're wrong. Gardner's success rate when he runs early in the count is much lower than when he waits for 3 pitches or more.

    And there were discernible periods he was obviously running on the first or second pitches in many games in a row. He paid dearly for those attempts.

    People have this funny idea if you are fast, you are a good base stealer. Gardner is not the first, nor will he be the last, fast guy that fails at stealing bases.

  11. #261
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by goin for 27 View Post
    BTW, what HAS happened to Brett swiping bases?

    He is on pace to steal about 25, and get caught stealing about 12.

    First, it is about half of his prior years. Next, the success rate sucks. (slightly over 50%, you need to be between roughly 67-69% successful to make it worth going.

    It seems that I am always yelling at the tv for him to go, and he just....stays put.
    It is weird and a bit disappointing he can't do even more with his speed. He seems to go into "running slumps" at times.

    In his last full season in '11, from July on he stole 30 with 3 CS after starting with only 19 of 29 successful. Will be interesting to see what he does the next two months.

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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ARoDfan4life View Post
    he never does.

    9th inning tie game, a singles hitter up. Well now it's Cano, who can jack one, but they aren't pitching to him. But he (Brett) doesn't ever get to 2nd. It got to the point Nunez had to do it. Called out (was really safe) but atleast he went. Gardy has this plus speed and does nothing with it. Nothing.
    Really this is getting ridiculous. This guy stole ~100 in '10 / '11. That's nothing? Did you miss the game against the Sox just three days ago? And speed isn't only about SB.

    Nice plug for your boy Nunez though.

  13. #263

    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Gardner isn't as good as he should be at stealing bases but he's very good at other aspects of base running. His BSR (runs from baserunning alone), out of 160 "qualified" players on Fangraphs, is 29th highest.

  14. #264
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    Really this is getting ridiculous. This guy stole ~100 in '10 / '11. That's nothing? Did you miss the game against the Sox just three days ago? And speed isn't only about SB.

    Nice plug for your boy Nunez though.
    1 game changes everything, really? the frustrating part about Gardner is he's being put on this don't touch pedestal. Fan favorite and over rated. He's slightly above average w/ the bat. That's the truth. He's amazing defensively, his base running isn't great. He should be better but he isn't. You can't count on the guy to change a game w/ his legs when you need it. Yes w/ that skill set it needs to be present in the clutch. It is not w/ him. Nowhere did I say I don't like him.

    What plug? I think Nunez sucks. Has some pop but nothing special. Come correct.
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ARoDfan4life View Post
    1 game changes everything, really?
    I gave you ONE example, from three days ago in response to your ridiculous "he never does" comment.

    the frustrating part about Gardner is he's being put on this don't touch pedestal. Fan favorite and over rated.
    Who said he's untouchable? He's a fan favorite to some because he contributes, and those people can evaluate players much more objectively than you appear able to. No one is saying he's Mike Trout.

    He's slightly above average w/ the bat. That's the truth.
    Check.

    He's amazing defensively
    Check.

    his base running isn't great.
    Baloney. I'd love to see you prove that statement. Over his last three seasons, including this one, his baserunning has been great in aggregate. And you realize base running isn't just SB/CS, yes?

    He should be better but he isn't.
    This again? Cano gets this same silly line of thinking. What you think he *should* be is totally irrelevant. What matters is what he IS.

    You can't count on the guy to change a game w/ his legs when you need it.
    Again, except for three days ago. You really think that this guy who averages 43 SB per 162 only steals when they DON'T need it?

    Yes w/ that skill set it needs to be present in the clutch. It is not w/ him. Nowhere did I say I don't like him.
    And the 10 CS per 162 - that's when he "chokes" in clutch baserunning situations?

    What plug? I think Nunez sucks. Has some pop but nothing special. Come correct.
    My bad. I could have sworn you were a big Nunez fan.

    EDIT - I was pretty certain on that... and it looks like things have changed for you with Nunez lately. You did in fact have quite the love affair with him in '10 and '11. Here's a few gems. "The latino Jeter" was amazing.

    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...=1#post7290710
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...ez#post7274888
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...ez#post7218170
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...ez#post6957051

  16. #266
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    I gave you ONE example, from three days ago in response to your ridiculous "he never does" comment.
    He never does. It's rare. Clear enough? check.

    Who said he's untouchable? He's a fan favorite to some because he contributes, and those people can evaluate players much more objectively than you appear able to. No one is saying he's Mike Trout.
    Never did I say that he sucks. I'm probably the most objective w/ him. My opinion you sell a guy like this when ever you can while he still has value.

    Check.
    check.

    Check.
    check.

    Baloney. I'd love to see you prove that statement. Over his last three seasons, including this one, his baserunning has been great in aggregate. And you realize base running isn't just SB/CS, yes?
    I know what base running is. I know what advancing runners is. I know what speed not being utilize good is too. Something that you keep thinking is just a numbers game.

    This again? Cano gets this same silly line of thinking. What you think he *should* be is totally irrelevant. What matters is what he IS.
    Cano is on of the greatest hitters in baseball. How does this comparison go w/ a scrappy slightly above average hitting OF.

    Again, except for three days ago. You really think that this guy who averages 43 SB per 162 only steals when they DON'T need it?
    When did I say this? I said for his skill set he is a bad base runner. He doesn't steal the base when you need it. That's been a chink is his all around game.

    And the 10 CS per 162 - that's when he "chokes" in clutch baserunning situations?
    what?

    My bad. I could have sworn you were a big Nunez fan.
    No I wasn't. I gave him credit for hitting. I give him credit for his aggressiveness. He's the only young ML ready SS the Yankees have. Other than that he leaves a lot to be desired.
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ARoDfan4life View Post
    He never does. It's rare. Clear enough? check.
    It's rare? Really? So again - the 100 SB in '10 / '11 - those were rarely in situations that the team "needed" it?

    Never did I say that he sucks. I'm probably the most objective w/ him. My opinion you sell a guy like this when ever you can while he still has value.
    Never did I say that you said that he sucks. But you're clearly not objective with him. And if your hypothesis on him is true - that he's a barely above average hitter that has a tremendous skill that can only be used when the team doesn't need it - why would anyone be a willing trade partner and give the Yankees anything of value?

    I know what base running is. I know what advancing runners is. I know what speed not being utilize good is too. Something that you keep thinking is just a numbers game.
    Well then give some evidence of that. You literally said he's a poor baserunner. There is no way you can back that comment up even remotely.

    Cano is on of the greatest hitters in baseball. How does this comparison go w/ a scrappy slightly above average hitting OF.
    Because in spite of his production, people always complain about how much better he *could* be if he hustled more, if he smiled less, etc. They penalize him because they perceive he should be even better. That's the same thing you're doing here with Gardner. Because you perceive he should be better, you're saying he's poor.

    When did I say this? I said for his skill set he is a bad base runner. He doesn't steal the base when you need it. That's been a chink is his all around game.
    Well, I quoted you before, but you also said it here. "He doesn't steal the base when you need it." So again, the dude stole ~100 bases in '10 and '11. If he doesn't steal the base when you need it, he stole 100 bases you didn't need according to your analysis.

  18. #268

    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Coffee View Post
    Isn't WRC+ exclusively an offensive stat?

    Therefore, wouldn't Johnny Damon plus good defense be much better than regular Johnny Damon?
    Counting this year, Gardner's on pace for three 5+ WAR seasons. Damon never had even one.



    Quote Originally Posted by grizy View Post
    Gardner isn't as good as he should be at stealing bases but he's very good at other aspects of base running. His BSR (runs from baserunning alone), out of 160 "qualified" players on Fangraphs, is 29th highest.
    Right. Over his (short) career (about 3.5 seasons), Gardner has already amassed 30.1 runs of baserunning value (that includes taking extra bases, etc.). By comparison, over Ichiro's 12.5 yr career, he has amassed 71.3 runs of baserunning value. For Gardner, that's BEAST-level productivity rate on the basepaths.
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    EDIT - I was pretty certain on that... and it looks like things have changed for you with Nunez lately. You did in fact have quite the love affair with him in '10 and '11. Here's a few gems. "The latino Jeter" was amazing.

    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...=1#post7290710
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...ez#post7274888
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...ez#post7218170
    http://forums.nyyfans.com/showthread...ez#post6957051
    WTF? that was when he first came up. The latino Jeter comment was about what he did to the Mets

    .636/.636/1.182 in that series. You guys were hard on him. And I said through out that time period we have to prepare a successor, let him play. He then proceeded to throw the ball away, hence me comparing him to a wild horse let out of the barn blindfolded. That doesn't sound like an endorsing comment. I said he had potential. Where do you see me say I love this dude, I hope they extend him and etc?

    This season his bat has been inconsistent. His injuries have been ridiculous. But that bat isn't special. It has pop, but at best average pop. So no there is no Eduardo Nunez fan club here or love anything.
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  20. #270
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SatchelPaigeYankee View Post
    Right. Over his (short) career (about 3.5 seasons), Gardner has already amassed 30.1 runs of baserunning value (that includes taking extra bases, etc.). By comparison, over Ichiro's 12.5 yr career, he has amassed 71.3 runs of baserunning value. For Gardner, that's BEAST-level productivity rate on the basepaths.
    Exactly. So why the decline from his other seasons? His UBR of 4.9 and 4.7 in 2010/11 down to 2.2 this year, or about 50% of the previous production.
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  21. #271

    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by goin for 27 View Post
    Exactly. So why the decline from his other seasons? His UBR of 4.9 and 4.7 in 2010/11 down to 2.2 this year, or about 50% of the previous production.
    Probably because of the decline in offense overall.

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  22. #272
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    It should be the other way around though. If you are on first, and Cano is up, maybe you don't go....Leave 1B occupied, don't run into an out with a qualified bat at the plate.

    With a crappy offense, there is more incentive to try and manufacture runs, and take more risk.
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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by goin for 27 View Post
    Exactly. So why the decline from his other seasons? His UBR of 4.9 and 4.7 in 2010/11 down to 2.2 this year, or about 50% of the previous production.
    UBR is an aggregate stat, not a rate stat. So since they're just over half way through the season, it's down but not nearly by 50%. So his base running (not including SB attempts) is still very strong. What is down disappointingly is his wSB which shows he's off his prior pace of creating runs with SB. As mentioned before, he's oddly streaky when it comes to SB. Perhaps it's time for a nice run (no pun intended).

    Quote Originally Posted by goin for 27 View Post
    It should be the other way around though. If you are on first, and Cano is up, maybe you don't go....Leave 1B occupied, don't run into an out with a qualified bat at the plate.
    i don't have stats to prove/disprove, but what I was inferring earlier and assume is that the greater rate at which this team makes outs dampens his base running value. Less hits from the offense means less opportunities to take an extra base. Getting on base in more 2 out scenarios reduces the odds he tries to steal third for example. All conjecture, and to your point with a desperate offense that should lead to a more aggressive approach maybe that should offset some or all. Would be interesting to know if there have been studies done on this.

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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    I'd also be interested in seeing his SB results by base. He seems to steal 3B more often than most base stealers and seems from memory to be very effective on a rate basis. Stealing third I'd think should have more run creation value as you're much more likely to score. That data would be interesting as well if anyone knows where it is.

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    Re: 2013 Brett Gardner Performance Thread

    He's had some tremendous at bats in the second half. Seeing a TON of pitches (he's now 11th and climbing in all MLB in pitches per plate appearance at 4.18) and grinding out at bats.

    .387 / .457 / .419 since the break prior to today. Let's hope he stays hot. If Jeter can remain healthly/productive and Soriano can add some power, with Granderson on the mend... a strong showing from Gardner would be HUGE.

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