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  1. #51

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 35Knucklecurve View Post
    I heard a somewhat disturbing stat this morning. The Yankees lost 162 HRS during the off season - Swish, Ibanez, Jones, Martin, etc. I don't know if they were facturing in Grandy now that he's injured or included A-Rod, who may or may not play this season. That's a lotta long ball to make up for. Cause for more concern?
    #TooManyDamnHomeRuns has turned into #NotEnoughHomeRuns. It's just the circle of life.
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  2. #52
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 35Knucklecurve View Post
    I heard a somewhat disturbing stat this morning. The Yankees lost 162 HRS during the off season - Swish, Ibanez, Jones, Martin, etc. I don't know if they were facturing in Grandy now that he's injured or included A-Rod, who may or may not play this season. That's a lotta long ball to make up for. Cause for more concern?
    Absolutely. HR's are the most efficient way to score runs. Not to mention, we play in a bandbox so it's not fair to ask our pitchers to constantly win 2 - 1 games.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  3. #53
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Absolutely. HR's are the most efficient way to score runs. Not to mention, we play in a bandbox so it's not fair to ask our pitchers to constantly win 2 - 1 games.
    That's what I was thinking also. They haven't played a lot of smallball in awhile and I don't know if there's enough speed in the lineup to pull it off consistently to make up for it.
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  4. #54
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    I keep looking at it like this:

    Ichiro replaces swisher => more speed and defense, fewer strikeouts

    Gardner replaces granderson => more speed and defense, fewer strikeouts

    Youkilis replaces arod => at this point in their careers, more walks, probably fewer strikeouts, and more intensity, less drama

    Let's say the catching we have will match that of russell's, i won't be too worried about losing martin's 20 homers, those homers were basically all he did offensively.

    Hafner replaces ibanez, he just needs to be healthy obviously. If he stays relatively healthy, he can more than make up for ibanez

    Jones became a black hole, not worried about replacing his homers -- nothing Juan rivera cant do

    As for chavez, he played really well last year, but he still is injury prone, and his performance is going to be volatile year-to-year.

    LF: Grandy's injury just creates an opportunity for Mesa, almonte, mustelier, or garcia. that can be a really good thing, or something the yanks just have to deal with for a month and a half.

    Just trying to be optimistic. we don't need homers to score runs. different faces with different styles and roles are good remedies for what happened last playoffs.

    Stats of players we lost in the playoffs (Arod, grandy, chavez, martin, swisher) minus Ibanez:

    16-132 51 Ks

    These guys batted .121 and struck out in almost 40% of their at-bats.

    even if i include Ibanez, they batted cumulatively .149

    why try to do it all again this year?

    thankyou
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  5. #55
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Heathcott sighting. Just grounded out to SS. Really hustled down the 1B line though.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  6. #56
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Absolutely. HR's are the most efficient way to score runs. Not to mention, we play in a bandbox so it's not fair to ask our pitchers to constantly win 2 - 1 games.
    How do you define efficient? A Grand Slam is the most efficient. Solo home runs are relatively inefficient. I define efficient as Runs Scored/Total Bases (including walks).
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

  7. #57
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by theDurk View Post
    How do you define efficient? A Grand Slam is the most efficient. Solo home runs are relatively inefficient. I define efficient as Runs Scored/Total Bases (including walks).
    A grand slam is a home run.
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  8. #58
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    A grand slam is a home run.
    You ignore my point. Home runs are efficient up to a point, but scoring exclusively by homers is very inefficient. If everybody only hits home runs, there are no grand slams or even two-run homers.
    "Deep to left! Yastrzemski will not get it! It's a home run! A three-run homer by Bucky Dent! And the Yankees now lead by a score of 3-2!" - New York Yankees announcer Bill White (October 2, 1978)

  9. #59
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by theDurk View Post
    You ignore my point. Home runs are efficient up to a point, but scoring exclusively by homers is very inefficient. If everybody only hits home runs, there are no grand slams or even two-run homers.
    Using your "grand slam" example, the bases are loaded:
    Scenario 1: the player batting hits a home run. 4 runs score
    Scenario 2: the batter hits a single. Generally speaking 1 run or 2 runs score. Another batter must come to the plate and get another hit to drive home additional runs.

    Home runs are more efficient.
    David Ortiz tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003.

  10. #60

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Using your "grand slam" example, the bases are loaded:
    Scenario 1: the player batting hits a home run. 4 runs score
    Scenario 2: the batter hits a single. Generally speaking 1 run or 2 runs score. Another batter must come to the plate and get another hit to drive home additional runs.

    Home runs are more efficient.
    Again, you missed his point ... he even conceded grand slams are efficient ... he was talking about solo HR.

    If you factor in frequency, singles produce more runs than HR with the bases loaded. Last year, the HR happy Yankees hit singles 6 times more often than HR. That means with bases loaded, statistically for every grand slam that scores 4 runs, 6 to 12 runs would score on singles (1 or 2 runs per).
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  11. #61
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gusto View Post
    Again, you missed his point ... he even conceded grand slams are efficient ... he was talking about solo HR.

    If you factor in frequency, singles produce more runs than HR with the bases loaded. Last year, the HR happy Yankees hit singles 6 times more often than HR. That means with bases loaded, statistically for every grand slam that scores 4 runs, 6 to 12 runs would score on singles (1 or 2 runs per).
    If you already have the bases loaded, sure, a single is more likely than a home run. In any situation, a single is more likely than a home run. But, of course, that home run scores four rather than one. And you had to load the bases first in order to get to that scenario.

    It takes at least three singles to score a run. It takes one home run. More efficient.
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  12. #62
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JL25and3 View Post
    If you already have the bases loaded, sure, a single is more likely than a home run. In any situation, a single is more likely than a home run. But, of course, that home run scores four rather than one. And you had to load the bases first in order to get to that scenario.

    It takes at least three singles to score a run. It takes one home run. More efficient.
    Thank you. I'm not sure why this concept is so vexing.
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  13. #63
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    depends on your definition of "efficiency"
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  14. #64
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    They left a ton of runners on base last season - I know there's a place to find that stat, but I can't locate it right now. Anybody know?
    September 28, 2008 - the day the HOF got a wake-up Moose call.

  15. #65

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NelsonMuntz View Post
    Thank you. I'm not sure why this concept is so vexing.
    You win ... one plate appearance is far more efficient than three plate appearances. What's so vexing is understanding the value of plate appearance conservation.

    The most efficient offense will have some mix of men getting on base and power. From that optimal point, the more reliant a team gets on the HR, the less efficient the offense will become. The 2012 Yankees are a prime example ... record number of HR and record number of missed scoring opportunities ... inefficient.
    “Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener.”—Billy Martin

  16. #66
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gusto View Post
    You win ... one plate appearance is far more efficient than three plate appearances. What's so vexing is understanding the value of plate appearance conservation.

    The most efficient offense will have some mix of men getting on base and power. From that optimal point, the more reliant a team gets on the HR, the less efficient the offense will become. The 2012 Yankees are a prime example ... record number of HR and record number of missed scoring opportunities ... inefficient.
    ...and they scored tons of runs, which is the purpose of an offense. Maybe we should define efficiency to add some context, because I don't get it.

  17. #67

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    ...and they scored tons of runs, which is the purpose of an offense. Maybe we should define efficiency to add some context, because I don't get it.
    I think it's just people seeing a power hitter strikeout with runners on, and trying to rationaize that a so called singles guy would get the hit more often.

    I don't believe it at all, but I'm trying to see the other side.

    At the end of the day, the 2012 Yankees scored a sh*t ton of runs and won 95 games.
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  18. #68

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    ...and they scored tons of runs, which is the purpose of an offense. Maybe we should define efficiency to add some context, because I don't get it.
    The 1998 Yankees hit 38 fewer HR, but had 261 more singles/walks. They scored 161 more runs.

    edit: The definition was stated in post 56:

    How do you define efficient? A Grand Slam is the most efficient. Solo home runs are relatively inefficient. I define efficient as Runs Scored/Total Bases (including walks).
    “Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener.”—Billy Martin

  19. #69
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 35Knucklecurve View Post
    They left a ton of runners on base last season - I know there's a place to find that stat, but I can't locate it right now. Anybody know?
    With men on - .262/.345/.449 = 0.794 OPS, sOPS+ 112 (>100 indicated better than the league average split)
    RISP - .256/.352/.436 = 0.788 OPS, sOPS+ 113

    Certainly not as bad as most people made it seem

  20. #70

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    I think it's just people seeing a power hitter strikeout with runners on, and trying to rationaize that a so called singles guy would get the hit more often.

    I don't believe it at all, but I'm trying to see the other side.

    At the end of the day, the 2012 Yankees scored a sh*t ton of runs and won 95 games.
    "a sh*t ton"? Really? Its one of the lowest run totals in 15+ years. Only one year since 1996 did they score less runs (2008: the year they missed the playoffs).

    Obviously, hitting a record number of HR did not make them more efficient run scorers.
    “Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener.”—Billy Martin

  21. #71

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Gusto View Post
    "a sh*t ton"? Really? Its one of the lowest run totals in 15+ years. Only one year since 1996 did they score less runs (2008: the year they missed the playoffs).

    Obviously, hitting a record number of HR did not make them more efficient run scorers.
    In the context of 2012, yes. Second highest in the league by only 4 runs.
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  22. #72
    Brien "The Incident" just-blaze's Avatar
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/mi...d=heathc001zac

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  23. #73

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    I'm not really sure I completely undertand what 'efficient' run scoring means. But I think I might understand the point about being an offense disproportionately reliant upon home runs.

    For the most part, home runs are hit off of mistakes (at least in the pre-PED era they were...). it still takes a lot of skill for a hitter to hit a home run, no matter how bad the mistake, of course, but generally a hitter like Jeter is more likely to figure out a way to do something productive with a pitcher's pitch than somebody sitting dead red and looking for his pitch.

    In closer games...and more important situations...there TENDS to be fewer mistakes made. It stands to reason that you will tend to see fewer mistake pitches in close games or postseason games. Certainly it's not always true, but there is a bias towards better pitchers and therefore fewer mistakes.

    it's fashionable and easy to laugh at those who fret about a team hitting 'too many home runs'. Obviously on a certain dimension that's a silly thing to worry about. BUT....

    Look at Granderson vs. Jeter last year. Jeter had a very good to great season, I think all would agree, and Granderson was a source of frustration. And yet Granderson, due to his home runs, had an OPS 20 points higher than Jeter. This has a lot to do with the flaws of OPS, granted, but on paper they were reasonably close in terms of overall offensive production. But would anybody rather have Granderson up than Jeter...all things equal? Why not? Beause, in a sense he's too reliant on home runs for production.

    Perhaps this is because we get too consumed with 'clutchy' stats..maybe that's part of it, but I think there's instinctively a preference for somebody we know can beat you in several different ways rather than basically one (an overstatement to illustrate the point).

    By the way, I have no numbers to back any of this up and I'm sure there are very reasonable ways to tell me I'm dead wrong....just my view...

  24. #74

    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by NerfBall55 View Post
    In the context of 2012, yes. Second highest in the league by only 4 runs.
    What does that have to do with HR efficiency? Even so, the team that outscored them hit 45 fewer HR
    “Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener.”—Billy Martin

  25. #75
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    Re: 2013 Yankees' Spring Training Discussion Thread

    @eboland11
    Joba hasn't abandoned idea of starting "do u think u have the capability 2 start?Yes.Do I have 4 ptches that I can throw for a strike?Yes."

    @BryanHoch
    OK, you ready for this? Joba Chamberlain brought up the idea of starting again.

    Hahaha that's awesome

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