Shields traded to KC

[jcarey]

holy moly, and i thought red sox fans overrated prospects

this forum takes it to a whole new level.

i'll take established pitching (cy young candidate) over a guy who has killed it in the PCL. dallas mcpherson anyone? brandon wood? i'm not sure i like the trade because of shields impending FA, but cmon people, this isn't the "worst trade in MLB history"

stop overrating prospects so much

When the Jays traded 2 years of Marcum, they only got one "guy who killed it in the PCL" in return. How the Rays got a "guy who has killed it in the PCL" plus 3 other high-upside prospects (including a great SP prospect) for 2 years of Shields and a reliever is bit confusing. That makes it a bad trade.

What makes it a TERRIBLE trade is the context. If the Yankees or Tigers gave these guys up to get Shields, it's not nearly as stupid. This is like the Astros emptying the farm for Cano.

[Chacon]

Posnanski, a Royals fan, rips the trade to shreds

It goes without saying that in pure baseball terms, I despise the the Royals trade of late Sunday night. Despise. Deplore. Deride. Disapprove. If there was a Royals Tradebook Page, I would click the "dislike" button at least 10,000 times. The Royals traded their No. 1 prospect (and one of the best hitting prospects in the game), their No. 5 prospect, PLUS last year's No. 1 prospect PLUS a fourth semi-prospect (because the other three apparently weren't enough) to Tampa Bay for a 31-year-old pitcher with a whole lot of innings and a very shaky road record and a 27-year-old pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen. I'd say 10,000 dislikes might not be enough.

But then says why the Royals had to do it

There are many examples but, for a moment, look at it through Kansas City's eyes. Your team never wins. Your team never contends. Your team is never talked about. Your team is never involved in cool trade rumors and your team is never a bidder on the most expensive free agents. Your All'-Star selection is always an afterthought, and your team's best players are not known outside the city limits.

It is bad enough to lose all the time, but it is this constant reminder of your team's irrelevance -- always waiting until the end of SportsCenter to get your obligatory few seconds of highlights (usually focusing on the other team) -- that makes being a Kansas City fan somewhat close to insufferable. You get this strong feeling that if the Royals abdicated from the Major Leagues, it would take the bulk of the country two and a half weeks to notice. Some would never notice.

All this provokes a different kind of hopelessness. The Royals have not made the postseason since 1985 -- almost 30 years ago -- but the truth is that only Royals fans care about this. There is no lovable loser Cubs thing going there. There is none of the pent-up angst and foreboding that, for so long, marked the Boston Red Sox. There is none of the "baseball its just a better game when the Dodgers are contending" emotion. There is not even the "Hey, wouldn't it be great if the Pirates or Blue Jays or Orioles were good again," sentiment.

He makes great points but this is a classic example of a GM throwing away the future to save his job

[THEBOSS84]

When the Jays traded 2 years of Marcum, they only got one "guy who killed it in the PCL" in return. How the Rays got a "guy who has killed it in the PCL" plus 3 other high-upside prospects (including a great SP prospect) for 2 years of Shields and a reliever is bit confusing. That makes it a bad trade.

What makes it a TERRIBLE trade is the context. If the Yankees or Tigers gave these guys up to get Shields, it's not nearly as stupid. This is like the Astros emptying the farm for Cano.

Exactly. The fact a team that isn't so close to contending felt the need to unload a terrific hitting prospect for two years of control of a #2 pitcher is as stupid as it gets.

[spikeowenfan]

It doesn't matter what Myers turns out to be. There is an established value for a top 5 hitting prospect and for a 72 win team, 2 years of a borderline ace is below that. The other parts of the deal, Davis for Odorizzi, Montgomery, and the other guy, I think inarguably favors the Rays.

A move like this makes more sense for the Rangers. They want Shields and would be the most popular World Series pick if they got him. They have the top prospect who happens to be blocked yet I doubt they even consider trading Profar for Shields. If that trade were to happen I would completely understand it, though.

[just-blaze]

I love how people are reacting like the Royals just traded Willie Mays, when in reality they traded a guy who posted inflated numbers playing in the hitter-friendly PCL along with 3 prospects for a proven front line starter, and a #4-5 starter without sacrificing any players from their MLB roster.

This is a much more balanced trade than people think and I'll be shocked if Myers evolves into anything more than a 20 HR, .270 AVG MLB hitter.

I love how you think the Royals acquired a top 10 pitcher when in actuality he is a career 107 OPS+ pitcher who has pitched worse than that away from the pitcher's haven he has made his career in.

[just-blaze]

holy moly, and i thought red sox fans overrated prospects

this forum takes it to a whole new level.

i'll take established pitching (cy young candidate) over a guy who has killed it in the PCL. dallas mcpherson anyone? brandon wood? i'm not sure i like the trade because of shields impending FA, but cmon people, this isn't the "worst trade in MLB history"

stop overrating prospects so much

Are you just naming Angels busts?

Trout, Weaver, Trumbo. You can generally find a success story for every bust. And generally the more highly regarded the better chance the prospect will turn into a success story. (When it comes to top prospects)

[jcarey]

I'm surprised blaze considers Trumbo a success story.

[teknetic]

Pineda never performed at that level for a full season. Shields has been a workhorse, pitching more innings than anyone in baseball besides Verlander over the past 2 years, and has topped 200 K's in each of those seasons, so you tell me: who has the more established track record.

You're trading an elite prospect for an elite pitching prospect with a full year of really good pitching under his belt. Guys like Pineda are rarely, ever, ever dealt.

Comparing Pineda to Verlander or Kershaw is irresponsible.

No, not really as I never compared their production, just value.

Sabathia and Santana were traded in their walk years - big difference. You're not getting someone like Kershaw or King Felix for a Wil Myers or Jesus Montero. Heck, you're not getting those guys even if you're willing to trade your top 5 prospects.

I never said anything about Kershaw or Verlander getting dealt before their walk years. You're also delusional if you don't think Hernandez wouldn't get dealt for a package headlined by a Wil Myers + two-three other top-50 prospects. Hell, it maybe even be considered an overpay. Montgomery was also a premium prospect before he crapped the bed last year.

holy moly, and i thought red sox fans overrated prospects

this forum takes it to a whole new level.

i'll take established pitching (cy young candidate) over a guy who has killed it in the PCL. dallas mcpherson anyone? brandon wood? i'm not sure i like the trade because of shields impending FA, but cmon people, this isn't the "worst trade in MLB history"

stop overrating prospects so much

Yea, it's this forum only. Go ahead and browse fangraphs, SA, or any other sports forum. Everyone's killing this trade. For good reason.

Shields
Guthrie
Santana
Davis
Chen

That's their rotation. It's also a bad rotation.

[freebubba]

Be interesting to see how Leonard developes - he's a big kid, 6'4" and 225lbs and only 20 yrs old.

Also, will Odorizzi get a crack at the # 5 spot in the Rays rotation?

[Zimmers' Helmet]

Interesting. Why?

A look back at PCL alumni who mashed (30+ HR and/or +.600 SLG) in that league in the past 6-7 years shows that very few, if any; actually came close to replicating that type of production in the Majors, if they even made it at all:

• Luke Scott
• Dallas MacPherson
• Brendan Wood
• Todd Linden
• Jon Knott
• Valentino Pascucci
• Craig Brazell
• Joe Koshansky
• Josh Phelps
• Mitch Jones
• Greg Halman
• J.P. Arencibia
• Bryan LaHair

[THEBOSS84]

Even though I bashed this trade for the Royals, I think this info I read on RAB is interesting:

Wil Myers is awesome and there’s at least a small chance he turns into Ryan Braun, but he did strike out 140 times last season (~24% of plate appearances). That’s a lot of whiffs for top two or three hitting prospect. Just to use Jesus Montero as an example (since we’re all familiar with him) — he struck out only 99 times this year and never cracked triple-digits in the minors. He did whiff 115 times split between Triple-A and MLB last year, but that’s his career-high. Myers has a different skillset than Montero (the willingness to actually take a walk, specifically), but having a high strikeout rate like that against Double-A and Triple-A pitching is a red flag for a high-end hitting prospect.

[Zimmers' Helmet]

You're also delusional if you don't think Hernandez wouldn't get dealt for a package headlined by a Wil Myers + two-three other top-50 prospects. Hell, it maybe even be considered an overpay.

If I'm delusional, then explain why the Yankees could not obtain King Felix, even after offering a package headlined by Montero, Banuelos, Betances, and more last winter?

Boston couldn't coax the M's into trading him even after offering up any 5 of Bard, Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, Dubront, Hagadone, or Josh Reddick a couple of years ago.

[jcarey]

A look back at PCL alumni who mashed (30+ HR and/or +.600 SLG) in that league in the past 6-7 years shows that very few, if any; actually came close to replicating that type of production in the Majors, if they even made it at all:

• Luke Scott
• Dallas MacPherson
• Brendan Wood
• Todd Linden
• Jon Knott
• Valentino Pascucci
• Craig Brazell
• Joe Koshansky
• Josh Phelps
• Mitch Jones
• Greg Halman
• J.P. Arencibia
• Bryan LaHair

So he'd be a better prospect if he hit fewer than 30 HRs or slugged less than .600? Or are all PCL players doomed to be busts?

Edit: Just curious about your cutoff. Do you scrutinize all PCL players or just the ones put up big power numbers in that league?

[jcarey]

Even though I bashed this trade for the Royals, I think this info I read on RAB is interesting:

Yeah, I'd say there are definitely some question marks with Myers, but that's the nature of being a prospect.

I wouldn't take PCL numbers at face value, but he mashed in the Texas League as well so I wouldn't say his power is a ballpark-created mirage.

James Shields is a REALLY good pitcher and I think some people are undervaluing him. But this trade is all sorts of silly for the Royals.

[Jerkface]

A look back at PCL alumni who mashed (30+ HR and/or +.600 SLG) in that league in the past 6-7 years shows that very few, if any; actually came close to replicating that type of production in the Majors, if they even made it at all:

• Luke Scott
• Dallas MacPherson
• Brendan Wood
• Todd Linden
• Jon Knott
• Valentino Pascucci
• Craig Brazell
• Joe Koshansky
• Josh Phelps
• Mitch Jones
• Greg Halman
• J.P. Arencibia
• Bryan LaHair

Luke scott made it to AAA at age 27? And he has had a nice career. McPherson is an epic bust. Brandon Wood is a bust. Linden had to repeat AAA like 3 times before he put up a good line, when he was 25. Same with Knott. Same with Pascucci. Same with Brazell, 27 when he finally hit at AAA. Koshansky, 26 years old.

Ok I'm gonna stop there, I can see where this list is heading. So because a bunch of college guys who out experienced/out aged a hitters league put up good seasons in the PCL and then weren't great major leaguers, that means what?

These guys are no where close to comparable for Wil Myers

[Snatch Catch]

A look back at PCL alumni who mashed (30+ HR and/or +.600 SLG) in that league in the past 6-7 years shows that very few, if any; actually came close to replicating that type of production in the Majors, if they even made it at all:

• Luke Scott
• Dallas MacPherson
• Brendan Wood
• Todd Linden
• Jon Knott
• Valentino Pascucci
• Craig Brazell
• Joe Koshansky
• Josh Phelps
• Mitch Jones
• Greg Halman
• J.P. Arencibia
• Bryan LaHair

That list is really myopic in this discussion.

Here is a list of guys over the last 5 years who were in the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list AND met your criteria of 30 HR and/or .600 SLG:

• Anthony Rizzo (21 years old)
  
• Leonys Martin (24 years old)
  
• Brett Lawrie (21 years old)
  
• Travis Snider (21 years old)
  
• Carlos Gonzalez (23 years old)
  
• Jeff Clement (24 years old)
• Brandon Wood (23 years old)

You have three highly valuable players out of six that have played in the majors, with Martin still a prospect.

And none of them had the status that Myers does.

I have no clue if he's going to pan out, but the odds your placing on him aren't founded in anything factual - they're based on a feeling you have.

[jcarey]

Here's the list of guys over the past 5 years that slugged at least .500 in the International League. I bolded the guys I've heard of. Not too many success stories. The PCL is not the issue here...if you sort by power numbers, you're going to find a lot of (usually older) guys with prodigious power and little else.

Mike Hessman
Jeff Bailey
Dan Johnson
Chris Richard
Brad Eldred
Randy Ruiz
Jonathan Van Every
Andy Tracy
Chris Carter
Oscar Salazar
Dallas McPherson
Brandon Moss
Brandon Guyer
Jerad Head
Jeremy Hermida
Freddie Freeman
Chris Richard
Jesus Montero
Sterling Marte
Ernest Mejia
Barbaro Canizares
Wladimir Balentien
Kevin Barker
Shelley Duncan
Jordan Brown
Matt Laporta
Russ Canzler
Jeff Fiorentino
Michael Restovich
Mike Hesman
Jeff Bailey
Brad Eldred

[Zimmers' Helmet]

So he'd be a better prospect if he hit fewer than 30 HRs or slugged less than .600? Or are all PCL players doomed to be busts?

Edit: Just curious about your cutoff. Do you scrutinize all PCL players or just the ones put up big power numbers in that league?

Wow, talk about missing the point....

My point is simple: Good power numbers in the PCL don't guarantee a damn thing at the MLB level. It's an extreme hitter's league.

If you believe Myers is the next Manny Ramirez based on his PCL numbers, that's your prerogative.

[THEBOSS84]

Wow, talk about missing the point....

My point is simple: Good power numbers in the PCL don't guarantee a damn thing at the MLB level. It's an extreme hitter's league.

I think you need to take into consideration that Myers has a very good BB rate, so he isn't exactly completely reliant on his BA or power.

[jcarey]

Wow, talk about missing the point....

My point is simple: Good power numbers in the PCL don't guarantee a damn thing at the MLB level. It's an extreme hitter's league.

If you believe Myers is the next Manny Ramirez based on his PCL numbers, that's your prerogative.

Good power numbers in ANY league don't guarantee a damn thing. You need to look beyond one facet of any prospect's game. You're the one that is limiting the scope here. Everyone else is considering Myers as a whole. You continue to harp on the fact that he played in an power-inflating league - something everyone is aware of.

And never mind that Shields has consistent home/away splits...likely because of his pitcher-friendly park.

I must respectfully disagree - where Montero would play isn't relevant. The bottom line is that Montero is perhaps the top MLB-ready hitting prospect in the game.

But if Montero's final season in AAA was in the PCL and he slugged .600 (and he would have), he'd be a prime candidate for busting?

[Black Sabbathia]

found this article interesting, getting reactions from AL scouts and execs. a lot of it reiterated my own feelings on the trade

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today...2/2614446.html

When the news broke of the blockbuster trade, the reaction almost broke Twitter.

Fans, particularly of the Royals, took to their phones and keyboards to register their displeasure, and many baseball analysts rushed to outdo each other in piling on to general manager Dayton Moore and to praise his Rays counterpart, Andrew Friedman.

Inside the game, the response is much more measured. In checking with six pro scouts, none saw the trade as one-sided, and all were convinced that the chorus of criticism of the Royals for making the deal is misplaced.

[spikeowenfan]

it's interesting to hear the other side of it. I think some of those comments are crazy, though. I don't understand how KC's "window is now." Every valuable player on their team is 28 or younger and they are all signed long-term.

[just-blaze]

I'm surprised blaze considers Trumbo a success story.

I had to give in to a OPS+ of 118 over a 2 year stretch.........

[just-blaze]

I like Cameron's take on it. Although he seems to have revised it over the past 24 hours.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...iocre-in-2013/

[awy]

pro scouts can be dumb about the value of players, big surprise wiht their heavily qualitative talk and lack of consistent quantitative comparisons between pitching and offense.