Girardi deserves serious MotY consideration

[Brien Jackson]

I know he's not the most popular guy in a Yankees' uniform by any means, but under the circumstances Girardi did as good a job as any other manager in the game this past season, and the fact that he isn't so much a finalist for MotY ought to be the final nail in the coffin of any semblance of meaning that award had left.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives...r-joe-girardi/

[False1]

I know he's not the most popular guy in a Yankees' uniform by any means, but under the circumstances Girardi did as good a job as any other manager in the game this past season, and the fact that he isn't so much a finalist for MotY ought to be the final nail in the coffin of any semblance of meaning that award had left.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives...r-joe-girardi/

I'm ok with the job Girardi did this year, and maybe some of it is just optics, but I don't think the fact that Melvin and Showalter are getting most of the attention tarnishes that award much. That one is actually one of the few that is generally pretty straight forward.

[Zimmers' Helmet]

I know he's not the most popular guy in a Yankees' uniform by any means, but under the circumstances Girardi did as good a job as any other manager in the game this past season, and the fact that he isn't so much a finalist for MotY ought to be the final nail in the coffin of any semblance of meaning that award had left.

http://itsaboutthemoney.net/archives...r-joe-girardi/

I couldn't disagree more - I don't see how Girardi can be considered more deserving than Showalter, Melvin, or even Joe Maddon who all managed to win 90+ games with inferior rosters.

[Brien Jackson]

I couldn't disagree more - I don't see how Girardi can be considered more deserving than Showalter, Melvin, or even Joe Maddon who all managed to win 90+ games with inferior rosters.

This is circular logic at best: if you aren't defining it by number of wins, how are you determining who has a better roster? And why doesn't Girardi get credit for winning more games than those teams despite having injuries on a magnitude none of them had to deal with?

[Brien Jackson]

I'm ok with the job Girardi did this year, and maybe some of it is just optics, but I don't think the fact that Melvin and Showalter are getting most of the attention tarnishes that award much. That one is actually one of the few that is generally pretty straight forward.

Straight forward and logical not necessarily being the same thing.

[grizy]

Showalter took a team of nobodies to ALDS. He and Bob Melvin have to be the front runners for AL MOTY.

[unfamous loser]

arguing Girardi deserves MOTY based on wins is like arguing that every managerial move that works was the right one, based on the right logic and thought process, and every move that doesn't was the wrong one, based on the wrong.

[Gusto]

Showalter took a team of nobodies to ALDS. He and Bob Melvin have to be the front runners for AL MOTY.

Agree ... He is clearly the difference in what they were and what they became in 2012.

[Brien Jackson]

arguing Girardi deserves MOTY based on wins is like arguing that every managerial move that works was the right one, based on the right logic and thought process, and every move that doesn't was the wrong one, based on the wrong.

I'm not sure that's exactly what's being argued (it would be more like "wins in the face of a ridiculous number/magnitude of injuries), but in any case don't all MotY cases start with the number of wins a team has? No one is making an argument for John Farrell based on trying to figure out how many wins his decisions were worth by any means.

[Jace]

I'm not sure that's exactly what's being argued (it would be more like "wins in the face of a ridiculous number/magnitude of injuries), but in any case don't all MotY cases start with the number of wins a team has? No one is making an argument for John Farrell based on trying to figure out how many wins his decisions were worth by any means.

The formula is probably closer to (wins + injuries) / payroll (in terms of what the random collection of baseball writers has going on in its heads). With tons of correction factors and coefficients built in. But if anyone cared enough, I bet you could build a fairly good correlation function

As usual, it comes down to whether you want to predict what baseball writers will do, or whether you want to calculate the correct winner of the award

[Brien Jackson]

Showalter took a team of nobodies to ALDS. He and Bob Melvin have to be the front runners for AL MOTY.

Is that really true? Looking at their team leaderboard on Fangraphs, their two best players were Jones and Wieters, who certainly aren't nobodies, and then you get some quality role player performances from J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Mark Reynolds, none of whom really strike me as nobodies. Just once overing things, it looks like a much better explanation for the Orioles success is that they got decent starting pitching from guys their GM moved to add, their previous GM built a really good bullpen, and their power-heavy offense hit a lot of home runs.

[False1]

Is that really true? Looking at their team leaderboard on Fangraphs, their two best players were Jones and Wieters, who certainly aren't nobodies, and then you get some quality role player performances from J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Mark Reynolds, none of whom really strike me as nobodies. Just once overing things, it looks like a much better explanation for the Orioles success is that they got decent starting pitching from guys their GM moved to add, their previous GM built a really good bullpen, and their power-heavy offense hit a lot of home runs.

Hmmmm.... something sounds vaguely familiar about that. Aren't you in that sentence also discrediting Girardi?

[aeromac76]

Whether fair or not, the MoY award has essentially become the guy whose team overachieves the most, with just a few exceptions.

I actually do think Girardi did a very good job, but on opening day the Yankees were expected to be a playoff team and good candidate to win the division. They did.

The Orioles and A's were expected to be also rans.

It's Melvin or Showalter.

[Brien Jackson]

Hmmmm.... something sounds vaguely familiar about that. Aren't you in that sentence also discrediting Girardi?

No, not really. I mean, there's a pretty limited amount a baseball manager can do to affect play, so you can't ever say "well he had good players" to discredit the job someone does, unless you're going to open it up to include everyone regardless of their final records. My point was merely that there's a fairly easy explanation for how the Orioles won games, and though it was perhaps anomalous and they needed a touch of good luck to get there, the idea that it was miraculous and Showalter must have found some way to get all of these dunderheads to play above their talent level is ridiculous.

[eaganmafia]

Brien-You're arguing over the manager of the year away. I repeat, you're arguing over the manager of the year award.

[effdamets]

Is that really true? Looking at their team leaderboard on Fangraphs, their two best players were Jones and Wieters, who certainly aren't nobodies, and then you get some quality role player performances from J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, and Mark Reynolds, none of whom really strike me as nobodies. Just once overing things, it looks like a much better explanation for the Orioles success is that they got decent starting pitching from guys their GM moved to add, their previous GM built a really good bullpen, and their power-heavy offense hit a lot of home runs.

I understand your side of the arguement here, but Jones & Weiters are certainly not Jeter & A-Rod & Teixeira & Cano & Sabathia & Pettitte &......
The Yankees had a much higher priced team which automatically places expectations higher than that of the Orioles.
Showalter probably deserves the award. Ventura was well on his way until the Pale Hose faltered down the stretch.
And speaking of managers.... remember when the entire universe held Scioscia up to the sky as the God of managers? Pfffft..... (f him)

[Brien Jackson]

I understand your side of the arguement here, but Jones & Weiters are certainly not Jeter & A-Rod & Teixeira & Cano & Sabathia & Pettitte &......
The Yankees had a much higher priced team which automatically places expectations higher than that of the Orioles.
Showalter probably deserves the award. Ventura was well on his way until the Pale Hose faltered down the stretch.
And speaking of managers.... remember when the entire universe held Scioscia up to the sky as the God of managers? Pfffft..... (f him)

I'm not really sure why expectations should matter at all, much less more than the actual games. Then again, they don't always matter (see the 2010 and 2011 A.L. awards) do they?

[eaganmafia]

I'm not really sure why expectations should matter at all, much less more than the actual games. Then again, they don't always matter (see the 2010 and 2011 A.L. awards) do they?

So what are you saying, that Giardi deserves the award just cause the Yankees finished with the best record in the AL?

So what's the point of the award, should they just give it to the best team in each league?

[Brien Jackson]

So what are you saying, that Giardi deserves the award just cause the Yankees finished with the best record in the AL?

So what's the point of the award, should they just give it to the best team in each league?

I didn't say Girardi deserved to win, I basically said he should have finished in the the top 3 (how Ventura finishes ahead of him I honestly have no idea). My other point would be that the logical process everyone employs here is flawed, and that we're elevating a parlor game (that's all "expectations" are) to the level of infallible truth that defines a herculean effort on the part of a manager whenever they prove to be wrong (in the positive).

The point of the post you quoted was really that "expectations" gets abandoned as a standard whenever it's convenient, and that the voting is explicitly biased against the manager of the Yankees every year. After all, what team exceeded expectations more than the Yankees in 2011?

[Zimmers' Helmet]

This is circular logic at best: if you aren't defining it by number of wins, how are you determining who has a better roster? And why doesn't Girardi get credit for winning more games than those teams despite having injuries on a magnitude none of them had to deal with?

It's not "circular logic" - it's common sense. The Yankees have a $200 million payroll with a roster full of perennial All Stars. There was an expectation that team would win 95+ games.

To me, MotY means a manager who got the most out of his roster.

Was there an expectation going into this season that either Baltimore or Oakland would win 90+ games?

Are you really going to maintain that the Yankees didn't have a better roster on paper with much greater expectations than Baltimore, Oakland or even TB?

Sorry to say, but it seems you're letting your bias cloud your judgement.

[Brien Jackson]

It's not "circular logic" - it's common sense. The Yankees have a $200 million payroll with a roster full of perennial All Stars. There was an expectation that team would win 95+ games.

To me, MotY means a manager who got the most out of his roster.

Was there an expectation going into this season that either Baltimore or Oakland would win 90+ games?

Are you really going to maintain that the Yankees didn't have a better roster on paper with much greater expectations than Baltimore, Oakland or even TB?

Sorry to say, but it seems you're letting your bias cloud your judgement.

As I said above: the problem with this line of reasoning is that it raises our expectations to the level of holy writ, and precludes the possibility that we were all just wrong about how good those teams were before the season (especially the Orioles who, unlike the A's, maintained a solid record for almost all of the season). The 2011 Red Sox were expected to be the best team in the A.L., and certainly to make it to the playoffs. So what?

[effdamets]

I didn't say Girardi deserved to win, I basically said he should have finished in the the top 3 (how Ventura finishes ahead of him I honestly have no idea). My other point would be that the logical process everyone employs here is flawed, and that we're elevating a parlor game (that's all "expectations" are) to the level of infallible truth that defines a herculean effort on the part of a manager whenever they prove to be wrong (in the positive).

The point of the post you quoted was really that "expectations" gets abandoned as a standard whenever it's convenient, and that the voting is explicitly biased against the manager of the Yankees every year. After all, what team exceeded expectations more than the Yankees in 2011?

Here you go, maybe this will help you understand:

Team A - All Star first baseman, 2nd baseman, shortstop, third baseman, centerfielder and starting pitcher. All high priced free agents. All supported by players that would be stars on other rosters. A team that is expected to make the post season and has for a number of years.

Team B - All Star catcher, centerfielder and rightfielder. Supporting players are not yet established MLers. Pitching that has been suspect at best, over the past 10+ seasons. A team that hasn't made the playoffs in a very long stretch.

Which team is expected to win anything?
Team A finishes with 95 wins, Team B with 93.

It takes a helluva manager to turn the dulldrums of Team B around more than it takes for Team A manager to make the playoffs.
We're all reasonable here.
There is no way that Girardi should be mentioned in the top three of the AL MOY this past season. Sorry but expectations of a team totally plays into the award.

[BroadwayBomber55]

I think the AL list between Buck Showalter and Bob Melvin is good enough.

Unless I saw Joe Girardi winning 116 games like Lou Pinella or 114 like Joe Torre did, Girardi won't be on the list.

Showalter took a young Orioles team that was neck-in-neck with the Yankees and Rays for the AL East title.

Meanwhile, Melvin took a young A's squad and outlasted the Rangers for the AL West crown.

[BroadwayBomber55]

I didn't say Girardi deserved to win, I basically said he should have finished in the the top 3 (how Ventura finishes ahead of him I honestly have no idea). My other point would be that the logical process everyone employs here is flawed, and that we're elevating a parlor game (that's all "expectations" are) to the level of infallible truth that defines a herculean effort on the part of a manager whenever they prove to be wrong (in the positive).

The point of the post you quoted was really that "expectations" gets abandoned as a standard whenever it's convenient, and that the voting is explicitly biased against the manager of the Yankees every year. After all, what team exceeded expectations more than the Yankees in 2011?

How did Robin Ventura finished ahead of Joe Girardi? Ventura took a White Sox team to AL Central title contenders into September before the Tigers won it.

As for 2011, Joe Maddon gets it based on their comeback against the Red Sox for the AL Wild Card spot.

[False1]

No, not really. I mean, there's a pretty limited amount a baseball manager can do to affect play, so you can't ever say "well he had good players" to discredit the job someone does, unless you're going to open it up to include everyone regardless of their final records. My point was merely that there's a fairly easy explanation for how the Orioles won games, and though it was perhaps anomalous and they needed a touch of good luck to get there, the idea that it was miraculous and Showalter must have found some way to get all of these dunderheads to play above their talent level is ridiculous.

You're complaining that Girardi didn't get more consideration. You're minimizing Showalter's impact by saying his GM loaded up the rotation/pen and his offense hit a bushel of HRs. You're going to need to explain one in light of the other if you want your point to be heard.