Is Pettitte a first ballot Hall of Famer?

[awy]

they'll have to think differently when guys are not even reaching 200 wins

[Yankee Tripper]

CC's never been on the level of a pedro that's just a fact. in term of peak performance people don't look at CC the same way they did Pedro, prime doc gooden, mussina, etc or even schilling (I'm talking about pitchers without that 300 win pedigree)

and among CC's contemporaries, u got put him behind verlander, santana, hernandez, lincecum etc

Don't see how he's a HOFer

From 2006-2011 CC had an ERA+ between 136-156 every year and threw 230+ innings in all but 2006 when he threw 192.

Pedro is an class by himself. No one has a 5 year consecutive peak even close. Muddux is the only one who really touches him if you extend the peak to about 8 years.

But the others, really?

Mussina? He has 2 season where he threw 230+ in his career and while he has 2 season that eclipse CC's 156 ERA+ (157, 164) his best years are scattered through out his career.

Shilling - Has a run from 95 - 04 comparable and slightly better than CC ERA+ between 124 -159 and only one below 134 with multiple 250+ IP seasons.

Doc - He was a shooting start that flamed out way to fast but his age 20 season is one of the all time great single seasons.

Verlander - I probably put him ahead based on his past 2 seasons but he's also ~70 career wins behind CC and only 2 years younger.

Santana, he has an almost Pedro-lite peak from 04-08 as full time starter and excellent partcial seaons before and after. Yeah on pure stuff Santana may have been the best pitcher of the "00s". But he's 2 years older than CC with ~50 fewer wins and a history of multiple arm injuries. He'll be an interesting case we he comes up for vote eventually.

Hernadez - he could eclipse CC. He has 2 stellar years back to back better than any thing CC has but the rest of his seasons, CC is actually better if you are talking sustained peak over a 5 year period. Of course King Felix is just 26 and should be dominant for years to come like...

...Lincecum who after B2B cy young seasons and 2 solid ones following has hit a major career bump with lost velocity and 5+ ERA. Does he correct it and get back on the HOF track or does he go the route of Scott Kazmir who looked destined for startdom by age 24 only to be out of baseball by age 27?

[awy]

pedro is not the measuring line for the hall of fame. that's like saying zeus is the measuring stick for the pantheon

[sweet_lou_14]

they'll have to think differently when guys are not even reaching 200 wins

I'm having a very hard time imagining the game changing to the point where 200-win pitchers become a rarity.

[awy]

the recent increase in strikecalling has certainly done a number on that trajectory. it's all about pitching burden though, if pitchers are finding it harder and harder to throw innings without breaking down, then we'll have only the rare pitcher durable enough to get 200 wins.

the decision share of starters has been going down steadily, at least until the last time i checked hte stat

[kan_t]

I don't see Pettitte being voted in - first ballot or not. When you say his name, the first thing that comes to my mind is his post-season record....Big Game Andy. He's pitched his share of gems in the play-offs and WS. Right now, he's got 25 less wins than Moose (245 vs. 270). The rest of their stats are surprisingly even - Andy's lifetime ERA is currently 3.86, Mike's is 3.68. Andy's W/L percentage is .633 and Mike is 6.38. Mike's got an edge in K's with 2,813 to Pettitte's 2,320. Pettitte's had two 20-game W seasons - Mike, one. Both of them pitched during the steriod era, but of course, Andy was using them also. Of course, the comparison would be even more clear-cut if Andy hadn't retired and missed a significant part of this year on the D/L. IP for Pettitte is currently at 3,130 and Mike is at 3,562. Neither of them have a CY Award in the resume.

However, if Jim Rice can get in, there's hope for both of them.

I don't think they're similar at all.

Moose 3562.2 IP, 123 ERA+, 1.192 WHIP, 3.58 SO/BB
Pettitte 3130.2 IP, 117 ERA+, 1.352 WHIP, 2.36 SO/BB

And Moose actually had a lower ERA, better WHIP and SO/BB than Pettitte in postseason.

[Jersey Yankee]

How can you know this? I mean he admitted using and his cousin admitted injecting him. We have no idea how far it went back or if it continued afterwards.

I never claimed to know how long that Alex actually used PEDs. From what I read, he ADMITTED to having used them after having gotten his 10-year deal with Texas. Whether he used these while in the Minors, Seattle or the Yanks was not my claim.

With that admission, I do believe that questions of his legitimacy become valid, as they would re Bonds, McGwire or Sosa.

[Jersey Yankee]

I'm having a very hard time imagining the game changing to the point where 200-win pitchers become a rarity.

The only way that happens is if you increase the pitch rotation. Back in the 1880's, it was commonplace to have 600-inning pitchers every year. I think they had 2-man rotations back then.

Was the 5-man rotation introduced around the '70s?

On another note, I'd like to ask about Park Factors. Presuming it could be agreed that Pedro's best numbers came in Boston, were there other dominating pitchers in his era whose home park was a definite hitter's park (band box)?

Pedro pitched in the so-called steroids era, in a park that lack 1/2 of a LF, in the DH league and against the Yankees. All this and he stood on a high post above many others.

[oneill96]

No way. If you want to put Pettitte in, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris and Tommy John would
have to go in too. No way that is happening.

[apalradio]

As much as I love Pettitte and what he's done for this team, I have trouble considering him a HOFer. That said, if I were to acknowledge that he's in the discussion, there's simply no way it's a first ballot.

[35Knucklecurve]

CC's never been on the level of a pedro that's just a fact. in term of peak performance people don't look at CC the same way they did Pedro, prime doc gooden, mussina, etc or even schilling (I'm talking about pitchers without that 300 win pedigree)

and among CC's contemporaries, u got put him behind verlander, santana, hernandez, lincecum etc

Don't see how he's a HOFer

Given the way Lincecum has declined, right now I'd have to put CC ahead of him. Guys like Pedro, Koufax, Gibson and Verlander need a separate category because you just can't use them as a measuring stick - freaks of nature. Thanks to Gibson and others (McClain, Lolich), the mound was lowered in 1969 from 15" to 10" - that's how much of an impact he had on the game.

At some point, the HOF is going to have to adjust its standards to recognize the way the game has changed. We may have already seen the last 300 win pitcher. CC and Verlander could possibly give it a good run barring health issues. It wouldn't surprise me to see 6-man rotations in the near future. A quality start is now 6IP and 3ER - the chances of someone blowing your lead with 3 innings to go is a lot higher than if you hung in there to the 8th or 9th - even with "specialists" who come in to pitch to one batter and closers like Mo.

[RenoHightower]

Given the way Lincecum has declined, right now I'd have to put CC ahead of him. Guys like Pedro, Koufax, Gibson and Verlander need a separate category because you just can't use them as a measuring stick - freaks of nature. Thanks to Gibson and others (McClain, Lolich), the mound was lowered in 1969 from 15" to 10" - that's how much of an impact he had on the game.

At some point, the HOF is going to have to adjust its standards to recognize the way the game has changed. We may have already seen the last 300 win pitcher. CC and Verlander could possibly give it a good run barring health issues. It wouldn't surprise me to see 6-man rotations in the near future. A quality start is now 6IP and 3ER - the chances of someone blowing your lead with 3 innings to go is a lot higher than if you hung in there to the 8th or 9th - even with "specialists" who come in to pitch to one batter and closers like Mo.

The quality start has been defined in exactly the same way since its invention in 1985.

[awy]

No way. If you want to put Pettitte in, Jim Kaat, Jack Morris and Tommy John would
have to go in too. No way that is happening.

pettitte has substantially superior run prevention numbers than those guys. higher strikeout too

I don't think they're similar at all.

Moose 3562.2 IP, 123 ERA+, 1.192 WHIP, 3.58 SO/BB
Pettitte 3130.2 IP, 117 ERA+, 1.352 WHIP, 2.36 SO/BB

And Moose actually had a lower ERA, better WHIP and SO/BB than Pettitte in postseason.

depends on hwo big your neighborhood is. i'd say they are close. mussina is above average as far as a hof pitcher is concerned.

[snapple]

verlander has only had 2-3 seasons that have been this good. dont peg him as a great yet.

[awy]

btw, not to harp on jeter, but pettitte having that defense behind him cost him quite a bit of babip luck as well.

[dpfeiffer]

I have a hard time seeing Andy Pettitte getting into the Hall of Fame, period. I can see his former teammate Mike Mussina getting in eventually though.

[effdamets]

The BBWAA really hasn't done that bad a job with the HOF. They've made some mistakes, to be sure, but the various versions of the Veterans Committee have done the real damage.

The writers aren't any good at voting.... Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Rich Gossage, Kirby Pucket, Gary Carter, Tony Perez - I think you get the picture.
And whether or not they get voted in by the writers or the vets, it doesn't matter.

There really needs to be a committee that approves any elections.
But maybe the damage is already done.
And any writer that leaves a guy like Tom Seaver off their ballot ought to have his balls removed, let alone get his vote taken away.

[JL25and3]

The writers aren't any good at voting.... Don Sutton, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Rich Gossage, Kirby Pucket, Gary Carter, Tony Perez - I think you get the picture.
And whether or not they get voted in by the writers or the vets, it doesn't matter.

There really needs to be a committee that approves any elections.
But maybe the damage is already done.
And any writer that leaves a guy like Tom Seaver off their ballot ought to have his balls removed, let alone get his vote taken away.

Gary Carter belongs in the HOF.

Again, you really do the BBWAA an injustice. You're cherry-picking the worst of them, and they're still not close to what the Veterans Committee has done.

Oh, and there is a committee that approves the elections. The BBWAA votes are approved by the BBWAA, and the Veterans Committee votes are approved by the Veterans Committee. What you want is an effdamets committee to approve the elections.

[Yankee Tripper]

btw, not to harp on jeter, but pettitte having that defense behind him cost him quite a bit of babip luck as well.

but the flip side is he got a lot of wins because the Yanks score a boat load of runs.

[Yankee Tripper]

I don't think they're similar at all.

Moose 3562.2 IP, 123 ERA+, 1.192 WHIP, 3.58 SO/BB
Pettitte 3130.2 IP, 117 ERA+, 1.352 WHIP, 2.36 SO/BB

And Moose actually had a lower ERA, better WHIP and SO/BB than Pettitte in postseason.

I would agree that Moose has a stronger Hall case than Andy.

[Yankee Tripper]

I never claimed to know how long that Alex actually used PEDs. From what I read, he ADMITTED to having used them after having gotten his 10-year deal with Texas. Whether he used these while in the Minors, Seattle or the Yanks was not my claim.

With that admission, I do believe that questions of his legitimacy become valid, as they would re Bonds, McGwire or Sosa.

Fair enough but if you are going that route I don't think Sosa have ever admitted using and I don't belive there is a positive test on him. That said I'd give some very good odds to anyone who wants to bet me that he wasn't a juicer.

[awy]

but the flip side is he got a lot of wins because the Yanks score a boat load of runs.

that's clearly understood by everyone. the subpar defense behind him affects more meaningful numbers

[effdamets]

Gary Carter belongs in the HOF.

Again, you really do the BBWAA an injustice. You're cherry-picking the worst of them, and they're still not close to what the Veterans Committee has done.

Oh, and there is a committee that approves the elections. The BBWAA votes are approved by the BBWAA, and the Veterans Committee votes are approved by the Veterans Committee. What you want is an effdamets committee to approve the elections.

When you're voting for guys to be amongst the best of the best, you can't have an off day.
That's like a sharp-shooting sniper missing his target....

And how in the world is Gary Carter a HOFer? A career OPS+ of 115? Really?
Never won the league MVP.
Didn't have 3000 hits or 500 homeruns.
For the last six years of his career, he was basically a league average player.
By calling him a HOFer, you're putting him on the same shelf as Berra, Bench, Dickey and Fisk.
I just don't believe anyone should be mentioning his name in the same sentence as those other catchers.

[Yankee Tripper]

When you're voting for guys to be amongst the best of the best, you can't have an off day.
That's like a sharp-shooting sniper missing his target....

And how in the world is Gary Carter a HOFer? A career OPS+ of 115? Really?
Never won the league MVP.
Didn't have 3000 hits or 500 homeruns.
For the last six years of his career, he was basically a league average player.
By calling him a HOFer, you're putting him on the same shelf as Berra, Bench, Dickey and Fisk.
I just don't believe anyone should be mentioning his name in the same sentence as those other catchers.

I'd rather have Carter than Fisk personally. Carter may be on the lower end of HOF catchers but he's got a very deseving HOF career. He was an excellent defensive catcher in addition to putting up very solid offensive numbers for a catcher. Only 3 HOF catchers hit more HRs than him, 4 when Piazza is inducted. Sure he doesn't compare to Berra, Bench or Dickey but that's like saying if you don't measure up to Ruth, Williams and Mays you shouldn't get elected as an outfielder.

[JL25and3]

When you're voting for guys to be amongst the best of the best, you can't have an off day.
That's like a sharp-shooting sniper missing his target....

And how in the world is Gary Carter a HOFer? A career OPS+ of 115? Really?
Never won the league MVP.
Didn't have 3000 hits or 500 homeruns.
For the last six years of his career, he was basically a league average player.
By calling him a HOFer, you're putting him on the same shelf as Berra, Bench, Dickey and Fisk.
I just don't believe anyone should be mentioning his name in the same sentence as those other catchers.

There's more than one shelf in the Hall of Fame.