New York Yankees 2012-2013 Offseason Outlook

[grizy]

People don't wanna hear this but Martin's BABIP last year was very much on the low end of statistical probability.

Give him some rest and a little better luck and he'll be one of the best catchers in MLB (read top 5, he was 11th in 2012 in WAR, ahead of Napoli)

[ElDandy]

so you just want a high obp/avg catcher that plays good defense? That shouldn't be hard to find on a budget.

Not that I'm trying to compare them but how's Pierzynski with the glove?

[Jerkface]

i think you underestimate martin's offense. he prob wasn't healthy for long stretches last year. getting more time sharing at c would be good for getting more value out of him

He has been pretty mediocre to bad on offense for the past 4 seasons. He hit .190 for most of 2011 and most of 2012.

Edit: Martin literally got all of his WAR this year from positional+replacement bonus. He was 16th, not 11th. Some guys who would be nice to have didn't qualify for batting title but put up solid years. Ryan Hanigan would be a sweet guy to trade for.

[YankeeFan1421]

I dunno about good. A lot of his supposed defensive value comes from 'pitch framing' which we still do not have a very good handle on how much it is really worth. He doesn't throw out above average amounts of base runners, nor does he stop teams from attempting to steal, he doesn't limit wild pitches or passed balls. Not worth the low OBP & AVG for the price.

I wouldnt set the market on martin in length/size of contract, but i would overpay for a one year on a one year deal. Im fine with his defense...seems a solid above average catcher behind the plate and his right handed bat is needed in this lineup. Honestly, i think yankee fans are a little bit unaware at times as to how unusual posada was...we're not going to see again a cost controlled 25 home run, .350 obp guy behind the plate for 10 years

[JL25and3]

He has been pretty mediocre to bad on offense for the past 4 seasons. He hit .190 for most of 2011 and most of 2012.

Edit: Martin literally got all of his WAR this year from positional+replacement bonus. He was 16th, not 11th. Some guys who would be nice to have didn't qualify for batting title but put up solid years. Ryan Hanigan would be a sweet guy to trade for.

I'm having trouble seeing the great appeal of Ryan Hanigan. He's 32, has considerably better on-base skills than Martin but not significantly more overall offensive value. (I'm assuming that Martin will improve over last year, which I think is a safe assumption.). Hanigan just caught 100 games for the first time, so you'll need use your BUC at least twice a week

Also, while I don't see much about him that's all that great, he's valuable to the Reds because they don't really have anyone to replace him with. And as Casey Stengel said, you have to have a catcher because if you don't, you're likely to have a lot of passed balls.

[Allan]

I'm having trouble seeing the great appeal of Ryan Hanigan. He's 32, has considerably better on-base skills than Martin but not significantly more overall offensive value. (I'm assuming that Martin will improve over last year, which I think is a safe assumption.). Hanigan just caught 100 games for the first time, so you'll need use your BUC at least twice a week

Also, while I don't see much about him that's all that great, he's valuable to the Reds because they don't really have anyone to replace him with. And as Casey Stengel said, you have to have a catcher because if you don't, you're likely to have a lot of passed balls.

Well, Casey was right and the Yankees do need a catcher for the next 2-3 years until the farm produces a replacement. Other than re-signing Martin, there doesn't seem to be a lot of options out there. Unless Martin's demands are excessive, they will likely go after him. What other options are available? Pierzynski, I suppose... but he's LH and older. I'll be surprised if Martin isn't our catcher next year and beyond.

[Jerkface]

I'm having trouble seeing the great appeal of Ryan Hanigan. He's 32, has considerably better on-base skills than Martin but not significantly more overall offensive value. (I'm assuming that Martin will improve over last year, which I think is a safe assumption.). Hanigan just caught 100 games for the first time, so you'll need use your BUC at least twice a week

Also, while I don't see much about him that's all that great, he's valuable to the Reds because they don't really have anyone to replace him with. And as Casey Stengel said, you have to have a catcher because if you don't, you're likely to have a lot of passed balls.

He mangles LHP with an elite OBP & throws out like 40% of runners and if you want intangible catcher BS everyone says he 'calls a good game' & he is also shows up positive on those pitch framing articles. He also makes way less than Russ Martin and will be on the team through 2014, which means you get a cheaper alternative that is possibly way better until 2015.

The Reds may think of trading him if they want to let Mesoraco catch full time. If not he is not available, but he would be a cool choice for catcher.

Edit: I advocated on Lohud for the Yankees to give the qual offer to martin because I would rather lock him up for 1 year without affecting 2014 and possibly get a pick if he got greedy. Now they are in the position where if they want to re-tain him they will most likely lock up tooo much money for 2014 and beyond on a guy who isn't at all that great.

[grizy]

Teams are starting to pony up for defensive catchers (see the Bengie Molina, Martin has actually historically be better hitter.)

And Martin is elite in that department while projecting 100~115WRC+.

That makes him an elite overall catcher, not in Mauer and Buster's league (they are elite in pitch framing too) but Martin likely was one of the best 10 catchers overall in 2012, even with the BABIP gods hating on him.

[Jerkface]

Teams are starting to pony up for defensive catchers (see the Bengie Molina, Martin has actually historically be better hitter.)

And Martin is elite in that department while projecting 100~115WRC+.

That makes him an elite overall catcher, not in Mauer and Buster's league (they are elite in pitch framing too) but Martin likely was one of the best 10 catchers overall in 2012, even with the BABIP gods hating on him.

Martin has not had a WRC+ over 100 in 4 years. He was exactly at 100 in 2011. You're very clearly overrating Russell Martin. Martin is not an elite defensive catcher. He is theoretically an elite pitch framer. There is more to defense than pitch framing.

I am assuming you mean Yadier Molina when referencing teams paying for elite defense, but he got his extension after he hit .305 .349 .465 .814. He also had a 3 year stretch of .292 .353 .382 .735. He showed he could get on base and hit for a high average while routinely destroying the league average in CS%.

Not really the same as Russell Martin the past 2 seasons.

[grizy]

I was thinking more along Bengie Molina's 4.5/1 after an injury riddled season and the 16/3 he got before that.

Those are far closer to what Martin is projecting to get (like 15~22 over 2~3 years) than Yadier Molina's 75/5.

[Jerkface]

I was thinking more along Bengie Molina's 4.5/1 after an injury riddled season and the 16/3 he got before that.

Those are far closer to what Martin is projecting to get (like 15~22 over 2~3 years) than Yadier Molina's 75/5.

Martin is going to get more than those deals, Molina's 16/3 was terrible. Martin for 1/4.5 would be great, but he is going to get 8AAV+ for 3 years.

[Shadoux101]

It amuses me to see people bash / not want Martin.

I wonder if they actually watch games or how much baseball they know.

[Zimmers' Helmet]

It amuses me to see people bash / not want Martin.

I wonder if they actually watch games or how much baseball they know.

Especially after watching Posada's defensive shortcoming for so many years...
The fact that all the pitchers on the Yankees staff want him behind the plate when they're pitching should speak volumes.

[snapple]

Especially after watching Posada's defensive shortcoming for so many years...
The fact that all the pitchers on the Yankees staff want him behind the plate when they're pitching should speak volumes.

People see BA and assume it's offensive production. Was his OBP still freakishly high (considering how low the BA was)?

[Jerkface]

People see BA and assume it's offensive production. Was his OBP still freakishly high (considering how low the BA was)?

No. It was .311, below league average.

[False1]

People see BA and assume it's offensive production. Was his OBP still freakishly high (considering how low the BA was)?

No. It was .311, below league average.

Actually it was dead on league average for catchers. If he can sustain his BB rate and The babip improves next season his triple slash will be more than adequate for a solid defensive C.

[snapple]

No. It was .311, below league average.

When you consider the fact his BA was barely above .200, it isn't shabby.

[THEBOSS84]

I was thinking yesterday - the Yankees are going through all this trouble to get under $189M in order to save some money. They are risking losing a lot of $$ if their team sucks over the next two years and fails to make the playoffs.

[snapple]

I'd think they'd be able to compete with 189m

[JL25and3]

I'd think they'd be able to compete with 189m

Of course, they already have something like $74M committed to three players. That's before they get around to negotiating with their second baseman or their shortstop.

So maybe they have $89M left to fill out the other 20 roster spots.

[THEBOSS84]

Of course, they already have something like $74M committed to three players. That's before they get around to negotiating with their second baseman or their shortstop.

So maybe they have $89M left to fill out the other 20 roster spots.

I'm curious as to why you added SS to the list. It's a player option, but it's already guaranteed to be $9.5M (I believe, since he won a Silver Slugger award) in 2014. Good luck to him if he thinks he can beat that on the open market. It would be his age 40 season.

[Jerkface]

Actually it was dead on league average for catchers. If he can sustain his BB rate and The babip improves next season his triple slash will be more than adequate for a solid defensive C.

Catcher is an atrocious position offensively at the moment. It was below league average for all positions. Why spend a premium to meet the specific split of league average for a position that is the third worst in the league being dragged down by the bottom 15 teams & all the terrible backups who get more playing time than other terrible backups when you can potentially spend it to beat the overall league average? There is no guarantee he bounces back. His K rate increased and he is getting older. His avg & obp have declined for 4 straight years. Not worth investing 3 years on.

When you consider the fact his BA was barely above .200, it isn't shabby.

His 10% walk rate is the only thing propping up his OBP to below league average (league average for catchers), but the fact is his OBP is not 'extreme' or anything like that. THe Yankees should not be going after guys who still put up below average OBP even with 10% walk rates. Walking a lot when your average is so low is great, but its not preferable to a guy with a higher OBP.

[Jerkface]

I'm curious as to why you added SS to the list. It's a player option, but it's already guaranteed to be $9.5M (I believe, since he won a Silver Slugger award) in 2014. Good luck to him if he thinks he can beat that on the open market. It would be his age 40 season.

In terms of the 189 limit Jeter will count as 15.5 if he accepts his option and 9 if he doesn't.

[JL25and3]

I'm curious as to why you added SS to the list. It's a player option, but it's already guaranteed to be $9.5M (I believe, since he won a Silver Slugger award) in 2014. Good luck to him if he thinks he can beat that on the open market. It would be his age 40 season.

Because I looked in the wrong place. I just looked at b-r's payroll listing, which includes only the buyout. You're absolutely right, though. Furthermore, if I read the CBA correctly, a player option year is considered a guaranteed year for calculating AAV (although the Silver Slugger bonus is counted separately for that year). That brings his luxury-tax salary to something just over $16M, so it's at least $90M for four players, plus a second baseman. They'll be lucky to have $80M for the other 20 players.

[snapple]

I'd spend money on Martin because he can actually catch.