New York Yankees 2012-2013 Offseason Outlook

[dont_ya_know24]

i wouldn't get caught up in all these numbers, it's much much more difficult for the yankees to have a higher ROE based on the fact that they are the highest valued (company) in baseball. Dodgers at #2 by 1.400 billion, then the redsox at 1 billion.

growth is more attainable and subsequently exponential for a developing country, but once that country gets on the level of the united states, growth can only occur at a smaller amount. the rays have an ROE of a little less than 10 % valued at 330 something million, once they are worth 1.85 billion i'll guarantee they won't turn in a net operating income of 185 million.

also dodgers ROE is .086%, they're the ones that should really worry about losing money come 2014, but maybe the steinbrenners will go bankrupt and magic johnson will buy the yankees. one can hope.

[dabomb2045]

Prospect development.

What prospects are helping this team the next few years? Banuelos is recovering from TJ. Sanchez and Williams arent close. Campos really isnt close. Those are the top guys that I am aware of.

This is the problem...cutting payroll wouldnt be as big of an issue if we had several prospects ready to join the team in 2013-14 and were ready to make a big impact. You would have several positions controlled by cheap options. This isnt the case though.

[kan_t]

What prospects are helping this team the next few years? Banuelos is recovering from TJ. Sanchez and Williams arent close. Campos really isnt close. Those are the top guys that I am aware of.

This is the problem...cutting payroll wouldnt be as big of an issue if we had several prospects ready to join the team in 2013-14 and were ready to make a big impact. You would have several positions controlled by cheap options. This isnt the case though.

Heathcott and Austin. Both of them are on the fast track, especially Heathcott.

Mark Montgomery will also make an impact in the bullpen.

[ElDandy]

What prospects are helping this team the next few years? Banuelos is recovering from TJ. Sanchez and Williams arent close. Campos really isnt close. Those are the top guys that I am aware of.

This is the problem...cutting payroll wouldnt be as big of an issue if we had several prospects ready to join the team in 2013-14 and were ready to make a big impact. You would have several positions controlled by cheap options. This isnt the case though.

I wont pretend to be a prospect expert or anything but I know they have an assortment of outfield prospects and middle infielders who can help them at some point if not by then. Guys like Heathcott, Ramon Flores, Tyler Austin, Corban Joseph and David Adams come to mind. Mason Williams may not be ready by then but I doubt he's going to fall off the earth either, same with Sanchez. Austin Romine had promise before his cornucopia of back inuries.

And like I said, stop gaps are always going to be around the block to stall until your prospects arrive. Maybe you grin and bear a year of Scott Hairston and Ichioro to get to your OF prospects. There's always ways to patch holes and teams with far less are able to do it year in and year out.

[Build4Future]

Hey guys any news on who we're targeting

[longtimeyankeefan]

Hey guys any news on who we're targeting

Anyone willing to sign a one year contract fits the profile.

[YankeeFan1421]

I'm really at a loss to understand what the Yankees are doing here. I would think they would jump at the chance to sign anybody who could help them in a one year year deal. Kuroda could be had for one year, by all accounts, and then wants to return to Japan. I know his kids are in school in LA, but we all know how that goes (Mike Hampton...)

I've said earlier that I would have been inclined to give Russell Martin the one for $13mm and I don't see why they wouldn't be all over Kuroda and give him whatever the Dodgers offer plus for one year.

If the Yankees are truly going to get to the salary threshold in 2014, there is going to have to be some serious bloodletting anyway. I don't know why they wouldn't make one serious run at it next year and stop screwing around with guys like Martin, Rivera, Kuroda and Pettitte.

I know it's not even Thanksgiving yet and a lot is going to happen over the next 60 days or so, and I am the one remaining person I think in the universe who still thinks they are pushing hard to move ARod...but if they can't or don't, I would think they'd snap up anybody they can get for one year.

[ElDandy]

Hey guys any news on who we're targeting

Some names I've seen them tied to (by legitimate media sources): Mike Napoli, Scott Hairston, Raul Ibanez and Ichiro Suzuki. That of course doesn't include our own FAs like Soriano, Rivera, Kuroda and Russell Martin.


The general consensus seems to be that their priority right now is Kuroda followed by Pettitte and Martin.

[ElDandy]

If the Yankees are truly going to get to the salary threshold in 2014, there is going to have to be some serious bloodletting anyway. I don't know why they wouldn't make one serious run at it next year and stop screwing around with guys like Martin, Rivera, Kuroda and Pettitte.

I'm not quire sure what the implication is here. By all accounts, they're negotiating with all of them. Free agency takes time and guys like Kuroda and Martin are going to market scour before they do anything.

[Blazer]

Heathcott and Austin. Both of them are on the fast track, especially Heathcott.

Mark Montgomery will also make an impact in the bullpen.

I'm not sure how a player who's been in the organization 3+ years and is only now in A+ ball can be considered fast tracked. I don't believe Heathcott will ever be a significant MLB player.

[Jerkface]

I wont pretend to be a prospect expert or anything but I know they have an assortment of outfield prospects and middle infielders who can help them at some point if not by then. Guys like Heathcott, Ramon Flores, Tyler Austin, Corban Joseph and David Adams come to mind. Mason Williams may not be ready by then but I doubt he's going to fall off the earth either, same with Sanchez. Austin Romine had promise before his cornucopia of back inuries.

These guys you are talking about are people who might, MAYBE, if things break right, get their first taste of the majors in 2014. They cannot be counted on to fill a position at an average level. That is why this plan is nuts. You get on a budget when you have Heathcott/Austin/Williams/Flores/Adams up and contributing already. At which point you can hand them a full time job & feel comfortable with it. Then when you have most of your offensive contribution coming from guys making the league minimum, it helps you get under budget.

If you are relying on them to get under the budget in 2014 you're basically conceding a 70% chance of getting no production what-so-ever from any spot they may occupy.

[YankeeFan1421]

I'm not quire sure what the implication is here. By all accounts, they're negotiating with all of them. Free agency takes time and guys like Kuroda and Martin are going to market scour before they do anything.

It's really specific to Kuroda and to some degree Martin. Kuroda is said to be out of here...if thats true, I don't get it.

I didn't mean to suggest, though I can see why it sounds as if I did, that they are screwing around with all of those guys...I meant as a whole those are players I wouldn't fool aroudn with and it seems like Kuroda may be gone.

[derekjeter916]

Why is Martin such an offseason priority? Not trying to trash him, because he seems like a nice guy, but his offensive production was just terrible. I don't care at all if he hit 20 home runs, if those are accompanied by a .210 BA and .310 OBP. Yet multiple teams are interested in a multi-year deal. Is he really worth $7m (and 3 years) more than the Yankees' backups?

Related note: why do the Yankees seem so dead-set against playing Francisco Cervelli? I can't see why Chris Stewart is much better than him, and I certainly can't see why Eli Whiteside (the recent waiver claim) is. Anyone have any insight?

[YankeeFan1421]

Why is Martin such an offseason priority? Not trying to trash him, because he seems like a nice guy, but his offensive production was just terrible. I don't care at all if he hit 20 home runs, if those are accompanied by a .210 BA and .310 OBP. Yet multiple teams are interested in a multi-year deal. Is he really worth $7m (and 3 years) more than the Yankees' backups?

Related note: why do the Yankees seem so dead-set against playing Francisco Cervelli? I can't see why Chris Stewart is much better than him, and I certainly can't see why Eli Whiteside (the recent waiver claim) is. Anyone have any insight?

He's a good defensive catcher and hit 20 home runs. there aren't a lot of people who the same can be said about.

I know he's not Johnny Bench or Jorge Posada or something, but none of the backups are close to him in what I would suggest is a pretty important position.

[Jerkface]

He's a good defensive catcher and hit 20 home runs. there aren't a lot of people who the same can be said about.

I know he's not Johnny Bench or Jorge Posada or something, but none of the backups are close to him in what I would suggest is a pretty important position.

I dunno about good. A lot of his supposed defensive value comes from 'pitch framing' which we still do not have a very good handle on how much it is really worth. He doesn't throw out above average amounts of base runners, nor does he stop teams from attempting to steal, he doesn't limit wild pitches or passed balls. Not worth the low OBP & AVG for the price.

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

I dunno about good. A lot of his supposed defensive value comes from 'pitch framing' which we still do not have a very good handle on how much it is really worth.

there's been some great work done on just this topic in the last year and a half. apparently it's worth A TON. like, an absurd amount. this is why the rays signed jose molina. you know the rays are always ahead of the curve on this stuff.

this is the mind-blowing article that has changed the game. has pictures:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...rticleid=15093

others:
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/3/27/29...atcher-defense
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/200...ing-the-debate
http://www.economist.com/blogs/gamet...earch-baseball

he doesn't limit wild pitches or passed balls.

are we talking about the same guy?

[Jerkface]

are we talking about the same guy?

I know about all the research on pitch framing, but I don't buy the insane amount of runs being attributed to specific catchers. We cannot know how much is due to umpire error.

And yea we are talking about the same guy. Martin gave up 9 passed balls 42(?!) wild pitches, 83 attempts against & a below average caught stealing rate, and 6 errors.

Wieters gave up 5 PB & half as many WP in 100 more innings caught.

Edit: Consider that Wild Pitch will be any time he fails to block a pitch in the dirt.

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

I know about all the research on pitch framing, but I don't buy the insane amount of runs being attributed to specific catchers. We cannot know how much is due to umpire error.

over a large enough sample size, you can definitely make assessments about who's great at it and who's not. martin consistently ranks among the top 5. the umpire noise cancels itself out, more or less, like with pitchers and K rates.

And yea we are talking about the same guy. Martin gave up 9 passed balls 42(?!) wild pitches, 83 attempts against & a below average caught stealing rate, and 6 errors.

Wieters gave up 5 PB & half as many WP in 100 more innings caught.

using counting stats here is problematic because we don't know how many "pitch in the dirt opportunities" Martin/Wieters had. not arguing w/ the throwing-out runners thing.

[Jerkface]

using counting stats here is problematic because we don't know how many "pitch in the dirt opportunities" Martin/Wieters had. not arguing w/ the throwing-out runners thing.

You're right that we don't know chances, but he still gives up alot in the counting category. Keep in mind that the Rays with Jose Molina are paying him like 2 million. How much do the Rays care about that if they actually had to pay money for it?

[derekjeter916]

He's a good defensive catcher and hit 20 home runs. there aren't a lot of people who the same can be said about.
.

I know he's good defensively, but is he 3yr/20 million good? I'm not convinced. That's a pretty substantial investment. I'll read up more on pitch framing, but IMO he has to offer more than that to deserve a contract like the one he was offered last spring.

And I don't care at all about the 20 home runs. The Yankees hit more than enough home runs, too many if you ask me, with or without his contribution; I want high OBP/AVG guys to balance out the low-average, swing-and-miss types, which Martin is definitively not.

[NelsonMuntz]

I'm not sure how a player who's been in the organization 3+ years and is only now in A+ ball can be considered fast tracked. I don't believe Heathcott will ever be a significant MLB player.

Interesting take. Heathcott is actually the OF prospect I'm most excited about (if he can stay healthy).

[kan_t]

I'm not sure how a player who's been in the organization 3+ years and is only now in A+ ball can be considered fast tracked. I don't believe Heathcott will ever be a significant MLB player.

A HS pick playing in Tampa in 3 years is common. When you consider his injury and PA in A+ (less than 250 PA) and he is still scheduled to start in AA next year (likely), yes I think the Yankees are putting him on the fast track now.

[False1]

I know he's good defensively, but is he 3yr/20 million good? I'm not convinced. That's a pretty substantial investment. I'll read up more on pitch framing, but IMO he has to offer more than that to deserve a contract like the one he was offered last spring.

And I don't care at all about the 20 home runs. The Yankees hit more than enough home runs, too many if you ask me, with or without his contribution; I want high OBP/AVG guys to balance out the low-average, swing-and-miss types, which Martin is definitively not.

so you just want a high obp/avg catcher that plays good defense? That shouldn't be hard to find on a budget.

[Jerkface]

so you just want a high obp/avg catcher that plays good defense? That shouldn't be hard to find on a budget.

I think the idea isn't that the catcher has to be that, but that locking up that much money on a catcher who isn't that may not be worth it. I agree if that is the case. Martin is clearly the best available catcher, but not at any cost and not with the 189 budget crisis looming. Chris Stewart is supposed to be just as much a maven of pitch framing and defensive prowess and makes the league minimum. Is it worth 8 million dollars for the 1 extra WAR that comes from Martin's offense?

[awy]

i think you underestimate martin's offense. he prob wasn't healthy for long stretches last year. getting more time sharing at c would be good for getting more value out of him