New York Yankees 2012-2013 Offseason Outlook

[rajah]

That's what happens sometimes with an "all or nothing" offense.

It happens even more frequently with a "little or nothing" offense.

Do you want to show me that the Yankee offense of 2012 was more often "nothing" than most lesser offenses (measured by total runs scored) --such as the Giants -- in MLB during 2012? People keep repeating this cliche about "all or nothing," but I have not seen any statistics to back it up.

What happened is that most Yankee hitters as a group stopped hitting at the wrong time. Slumps afflict all types of hitters.

[teknetic]

Dodgers won the bid for Ryu so they're probably out of the Kuroda sweepstakes.


(probably not, but I'm hoping)

[False1]

It happens even more frequently with a "little or nothing" offense.

Do you want to show me that the Yankee offense of 2012 was more often "nothing" than most lesser offenses (measured by total runs scored) --such as the Giants -- in MLB during 2012? People keep repeating this cliche about "all or nothing," but I have not seen any statistics to back it up.

What happened is that most Yankee hitters as a group stopped hitting at the wrong time. Slumps afflict all types of hitters.

I'm with you. I've constantly asked for any shred of evidence that the 2012 team was less consistent in its scoring capabilities than other teams, but so far crickets. Folks loved to claim that the Yankees' run totals (and associated W/L's) in 2012 were the byproduct of huge games followed up by droughts. I'd honestly like to know if they were any more or less "stable" in that regard than other teams. Haven't seen anything to support that claim though.

[grizy]

Did some work with scoring summaries on baseball reference.

Take aways: Yankees 2.909942 standard deviation means it's actually more consistent than AL average of 3.06. If you take overall number of runs scored into account and look at mean/std, Yankees is second highest only behind the Tigers.

We also scored 3 or more runs in 79.6296% of the games, higher than the Tigers 74.5342%. Notice the Rangers have higher run total but lower % of games with 3Rs or more and their Mean/Std is barely higher than league average, lower than Orioles.



TLDR: Yankees did not just score a lot of runs. They did it more consistently than anyone else in AL.

Statistically, it's nearly impossible for that same team to do what it did in the ALDS and ALCS.
Managers' and coaches' number one job is keeping players in the zone. They failed miserably last month.

[rajah]

Thanks for doing that work, grizy! A great post!

That should shut up all the other posters here who keep repeating the uniformed blabber of the journalists about the 2012 Yankee offense being feast or famine.

The problem with the Yankee offense was not in its construction, but in its end of season execution.

And I agree with you that this falls substantially on the coaching staff. They did fail miserably, and in my opinion, they should be fired for the failure.

That Cashman apparently does not agree has diminished my confidence in him as well.

[Mr Coffee]

Nice job, Griz.

[ThePinStripes]

Griz, Good work.

I did that a few years ago when and we were very streaky, statistically. This was both for pitching and offense (AJ Burnett, anyone?).

Then I did simulation on what would happen if we scored the same number of runs and gave up the same number, but were more consistent. The result was a lot more wins (obviously, if you score more runs than you give up and you're perfectly consistent, you win every game). Consistency is a largely overlooked stat, IMO. Then again, it might be overlooked because there is no cause or cure. I don't know.

Again, good work.

[grizy]

It's not overlooked among statisticians.

I actually know a handful that work inside baseball now (former poker players that moved on) and consistency is a big topic going forward, but that's only pushing at the margins. The biggest driver of Ws is still Runs Scored.

What's happening now is people are taking linear weight models too far and the weights are inappropriate when you give up/gain too much of something. In the case of Mariners, they forgot scoring in baseball requires a chain of positive events... so if you have a lot of very bad hitters, then you will (probably) score less than what linear weights suggest you should. That's the next frontier, figuring out proper weights when you start moving from "normal" ranges from which the linear weights were statistically regressed from.

Once we figure that out, we can get expected scoring consistency of a team given the composition of hitters.

[ThePinStripes]

It's not overlooked among statisticians.

I actually know a handful that work inside baseball now (former poker players that moved on) and consistency is a big topic going forward, but that's only pushing at the margins. The biggest driver of Ws is still Runs Scored.

What's happening now is people are taking linear weight models too far and the weights are inappropriate when you give up/gain too much of something. In the case of Mariners, they forgot scoring in baseball requires a chain of positive events... so if you have a lot of very bad hitters, then you will (probably) score less than what linear weights suggest you should. That's the next frontier, figuring out proper weights when you start moving from "normal" ranges from which the linear weights were statistically regressed from.

Once we figure that out, we can get expected scoring consistency of a team given the composition of hitters.

Very cool stuff. I was speculating at some of the stuff (weighting). Having the right combination of power hitters, OBP machines and high average hitters has to be huge. Sum of the parts type thing.

[goin for 27]

Statistically, it's nearly impossible for that same team to do what it did in the ALDS and ALCS.
Managers' and coaches' number one job is keeping players in the zone. They failed miserably last month.

Griz, Can you expound on the above?

It is an interesting thought, but I don't see how a coach can keep a player "in the zone". Robbie for example, was white hot rolling into playoffs.

His last 52 plate appearances of the year...

.532/.558/.872/1.430

This is beyond unconscious. I don't give K Long or any coach credit of such an absurd slash line for 50+ plate appearances.

I have not problems if Robbie regressed to his season norms, but he just went completely into the tank.

I wonder if thiis is just stats playing out. If you averaged in his 50+ PA's, with the 41 PA's on the postseason....if it would look like his season line? (I am too lazy to run numbers)

Point is, players need to execute, and unless the coaches dramatically change approach, I don't believe that they have a meaningful impact on performance.

It is an interesting discussion though, because there is really no explanation for just about all the players falling off a cliff at the same time.

[Yankees1962]

Thanks for doing that work, grizy! A great post!

That should shut up all the other posters here who keep repeating the uniformed blabber of the journalists about the 2012 Yankee offense being feast or famine.

The problem with the Yankee offense was not in its construction, but in its end of season execution.

And I agree with you that this falls substantially on the coaching staff. They did fail miserably, and in my opinion, they should be fired for the failure.

That Cashman apparently does not agree has diminished my confidence in him as well.

I'm more into the belief that some of the players should be fired instead as there is only so much coaches can do for the player that fails to execute.

[False1]

Did some work with scoring summaries on baseball reference.

Take aways: Yankees 2.909942 standard deviation means it's actually more consistent than AL average of 3.06. If you take overall number of runs scored into account and look at mean/std, Yankees is second highest only behind the Tigers.

We also scored 3 or more runs in 79.6296% of the games, higher than the Tigers 74.5342%. Notice the Rangers have higher run total but lower % of games with 3Rs or more and their Mean/Std is barely higher than league average, lower than Orioles.



TLDR: Yankees did not just score a lot of runs. They did it more consistently than anyone else in AL.

Statistically, it's nearly impossible for that same team to do what it did in the ALDS and ALCS.
Managers' and coaches' number one job is keeping players in the zone. They failed miserably last month.

Thanks, this is perfect - although I'm sure this data will get discounted as "saber-geek" material.

[TheInfallibleOne]

Did some work with scoring summaries on baseball reference.

Take aways: Yankees 2.909942 standard deviation means it's actually more consistent than AL average of 3.06. If you take overall number of runs scored into account and look at mean/std, Yankees is second highest only behind the Tigers.

We also scored 3 or more runs in 79.6296% of the games, higher than the Tigers 74.5342%. Notice the Rangers have higher run total but lower % of games with 3Rs or more and their Mean/Std is barely higher than league average, lower than Orioles.



TLDR: Yankees did not just score a lot of runs. They did it more consistently than anyone else in AL.

Statistically, it's nearly impossible for that same team to do what it did in the ALDS and ALCS.
Managers' and coaches' number one job is keeping players in the zone. They failed miserably last month.

Statistically nearly impossible and yet, it happens 2 years in a row? Is this another "perfect storm" of events that we hear about every day in every situation that goes wrong?
When are we going to hear the end of the nearly statistically impossible perfect storms? They lost because they swung at awful pitches and took fat ones. Thats kind of all there is to it. Fancy stats wont tell you much more.

[Mr Coffee]

Statistically nearly impossible and yet, it happens 2 years in a row? Is this another "perfect storm" of events that we hear about every day in every situation that goes wrong?
When are we going to hear the end of the nearly statistically impossible perfect storms? They lost because they swung at awful pitches and took fat ones. Thats kind of all there is to it. Fancy stats wont tell you much more.

It didn't happen two years in a row.

The Yankees lost the ALDS in 2011, yes, but they scored runs.

9,3,4,10,2 runs scored in the five games.

[dont_ya_know24]

dodger's payroll for 2013 as it stands today will be around 192 mil, not including any lucrative contracts they may offer this offseason. it's nice knowing that nobody can throw "bankees" in my face anymore...

[ieddyi]

Dodgers won the bid for Ryu so they're probably out of the Kuroda sweepstakes.


(probably not, but I'm hoping)

You'd think there's gotta be some limit.......

[False1]

It didn't happen two years in a row.

The Yankees lost the ALDS in 2011, yes, but they scored runs.

9,3,4,10,2 runs scored in the five games.

You'd think at some point people would stop saying things like this. It's kind of like how the Yankees have been terribad with RISP for all eternity, yet in '11 they were insano with RISP. I don't get it.

[False1]

Statistically nearly impossible and yet, it happens 2 years in a row? Is this another "perfect storm" of events that we hear about every day in every situation that goes wrong?
When are we going to hear the end of the nearly statistically impossible perfect storms? They lost because they swung at awful pitches and took fat ones. Thats kind of all there is to it. Fancy stats wont tell you much more.

These aren't "fancy stats." This debunks the theory that was espoused by some all season about the Yankees only looking good offensively because they score a ton in a few blowouts and then go on droughts. He wasn't implying anything about the playoffs, and as was just stated your "two years in a row comment" was incorrect.

That said, there are certain players that have disappeared far too often in the playoffs, and for that I have finally accepted that there must be more than just simply SSS and luck at play.

[apalradio]

It didn't happen two years in a row.

The Yankees lost the ALDS in 2011, yes, but they scored runs.

9,3,4,10,2 runs scored in the five games.

They scored 19 runs in two games, and it took them three other games to amass 9 other runs. So I guess I see the original poster's point.

[False1]

They scored 19 runs in two games, and it took them three other games to amass 9 other runs. So I guess I see the original poster's point.

Against Verlander, Scherzer and Fister. They're not going to score 6 or 7 every night against those guys - last year or this year.

If you watched those games and the way those guys pitched, you wouldn't be comparing it in any form to the fustercluck that was the October '12 offense.

[Mr Coffee]

They scored 19 runs in two games, and it took them three other games to amass 9 other runs. So I guess I see the original poster's point.

Scoring 28 runs in five games in 2011, no matter what the breakdown, is nowhere near the same thing that happened offensively in the 2012 playoffs where they scored 22 runs in 9 games.

So the original poster's point that 'this happened two years in a row' is not true.

The Yankees were historically bad offensively this past year.

[Blazer]

3 outcome hitters tends to fare poorly against pitching that doesn't give up HR & BB. The Yanks had as many as 6 of those types of hitters this past season: Swisher; Granderson; Tex; Martin; ARod; & whoever was DH.

[Blazer]

Scoring 28 runs in five games in 2011, no matter what the breakdown, is nowhere near the same thing that happened offensively in the 2012 playoffs where they scored 22 runs in 9 games.

So the original poster's point that 'this happened two years in a row' is not true.

The Yankees were historically bad offensively this past year.

Yet they lost both series because the other club shut down the Yankee offense... go figure

[Mr Coffee]

Yet they lost both series because the other club shut down the Yankee offense... go figure

I would imagine that the winner of just about every series is the team that shuts down the other team's offense.

[grizy]

9,3,4,10,2 runs scored in the five games =/= getting shut down.