New York Yankees 2012-2013 Offseason Outlook

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

That's not exactly true. His second half numbers were skewed by his final start, which he made after sitting for 11 days.

It's amazing how this perception persists. It reminds me of all the crap during this election cycle.

[TheGameEpisode2]

From July 19th (which is the start of the second half) to September 10th (before Pineda's last start of the season) he had a 5.17 ERA.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

[Mr Coffee]

From July 19th (which is the start of the second half) to September 10th (before Pineda's last start of the season) he had a 5.17 ERA.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

Ok, but that has nothing to do with his fastball velocity as far as I can tell. I'm not sure how you would determine he had a shoulder issue from that.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

It wasn't a horrible trade when it was made, but I just don't agree when people say it "hadto be made". No trade has to be made. If it was that much of a slam dunk then the Yankees wouldn't have gotten Compos too. I like Cashman. He's done enough good that he doesn't have to be protected by this notion that he had no choice but to trade Montero.

[Yanksfanintoronto]

I love how every year so many fans have so many concerns with the Yankees and other than 08' this teams been consistently in the playoffs. Some fans behave like the teams beens a total disaster.

I do agree that the offense needs to be a little more well rounded but eh it was still one of the best around this year. I think Gardner not being in the lineup made a difference...its always better with him in it. They were terrible to watch in the ALCS but that happens. 2012 was a good season....they made it farther than they did in 2011. Ofcourse we as fans always want a championship but if you expect one every year then youv'e drank too much of the kool aid served by the hype machine (and I feel sorry for you).

2012 was one heck of a ride and I hope we get another shot at the Tigers in next years ALCS.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

From July 19th (which is the start of the second half) to September 10th (before Pineda's last start of the season) he had a 5.17 ERA.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl...ching_gamelogs

It's been written about frequently how his K rates didn't change (they were actually slightly higher in the 2nd half) and his velocity remained consistent until the last start -- the big difference was in BABIP -- which is hardly a major sign of an issue

[Yankee Tripper]

It wasn't a horrible trade when it was made, but I just don't agree when people say it "hadto be made". No trade has to be made. If it was that much of a slam dunk then the Yankees wouldn't have gotten Compos too. I like Cashman. He's done enough good that he doesn't have to be protected by this notion that he had no choice but to trade Montero.

Sure there are risks in every trade. If Pindea looked like the next Verlaner last year instead of going under the kinfe and missing a season+ Cashman would look like a genius. As it is the deal hasn't looked too good so far but that doesn't mean it was a bad deal, at the the time.

Now if he'd have traded Montero for a washed up has been who was having a good half season in 2011, that would have been a bad trade at the time.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

Sure there are risks in every trade. If Pindea looked like the next Verlaner last year instead of going under the kinfe and missing a season+ Cashman would look like a genius. As it is the deal hasn't looked too good so far but that doesn't mean it was a bad deal, at the the time.

Now if he'd have traded Montero for a washed up has been who was having a good half season in 2011, that would have been a bad trade at the time.

I agree that it wasn't a terrible idea at the time, but it wasn't a trade that had to be made. The upside was tremendous, but the risk was high, and quality pitching is just not as rare as it was 10 years ago.

[spikeowenfan]

I agree that it wasn't a terrible idea at the time, but it wasn't a trade that had to be made. The upside was tremendous, but the risk was high, and quality pitching is just not as rare as it was 10 years ago.

It's clear they didn't view him as a catcher and with Jones, Arod, and Jeter as RH DH options, his role was going to be smaller than it would be another team. They didn't have to trade him, but it made sense to since there were other teams (well, at least one) that valued him higher.

I disagree with your opinion on pitching. You have to adjust your definition of quality pitching with the change in the run environment. 17 teams this year were under a 4 FIP; 13 starting rotations were under 4.

[Benefactor]

Sure there are risks in every trade. If Pindea looked like the next Verlaner last year instead of going under the kinfe and missing a season+ Cashman would look like a genius. As it is the deal hasn't looked too good so far but that doesn't mean it was a bad deal, at the the time.

Now if he'd have traded Montero for a washed up has been who was having a good half season in 2011, that would have been a bad trade at the time.

If Pineda looked anything like Verlander, their wouldn't have been a trade in the first place. Their shouldn't be that kind of risk involving the team's #1 prospect or at the very least, the risk should be minimal. Pineda was deemed untouchable as early on as 2010. I wonder what happened? Seattle has a ballpark that caters to pitching and defense and they compromise both by going out and trading for a fulltime power hitting DH throwing him behind the plate, batting him in a lineup with zero protection and in a ball park that suppresses homeruns nonetheless, watch him clog the bases at every turn. On first glance, Seattle took the bigger risk. On scond glance, it looks like Seattle pulled off the perfect heist.

[Yankees61]

Pineda's ERA the 2nd half of the season was over 5, which also included a few low velocity games mixed in. Big red flags. Cashman is the best GM the other 29 teams ever had.

[snapple]

Pineda's ERA the 2nd half of the season was over 5, which also included a few low velocity games mixed in. Big red flags. Cashman is the best GM the other 29 teams ever had.

Why do people REFUSE to look at what actually happened? Do you just prefer to spew things out you CLEARLY haven't looked into?

[just-blaze]

Why do people REFUSE to look at what actually happened? Do you just prefer to spew things out you CLEARLY haven't looked into?

You shouldn't respond to people who don't want to engage in intelligent discourse.

It's like trying to converse with a crazy person talking to oneself. Just let them vent and be.

[NelsonMuntz]

Let me preface this post by saying I was 100% on board with the Pineda trade and this is in no way meant to be a hindsight knock on Cashman for making the trade. However, I'm not sure that it is entirely accurate to say there was no velocity drop in the 2nd half of 2011 for Pineda. In his first 14 starts his average velocity was at or above 95 MPH 5 times. In his last 14 starts of the season his average velocity was at or above 95 MPH just once, and not at all over his last 9 starts. Is that significant? I don't know but it sure seems like a velocity drop to me:

5372_P_FA_20110921.jpg

[flymick24]

Let me preface this post by saying I was 100% on board with the Pineda trade and this is in no way meant to be a hindsight knock on Cashman for making the trade. However, I'm not sure that it is entirely accurate to say there was no velocity drop in the 2nd half of 2011 for Pineda. In his first 14 starts his average velocity was at or above 95 MPH 5 times. In his last 14 starts of the season his average velocity was at or above 95 MPH just once, and not at all over his last 9 starts. Is that significant? I don't know but it sure seems like a velocity drop to me:

Attachment 21344

came here right now just to post that... it's not a significant drop, but it indeed is a drop

not sure about the last start of the season, wtf that was about

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

Let me preface this post by saying I was 100% on board with the Pineda trade and this is in no way meant to be a hindsight knock on Cashman for making the trade. However, I'm not sure that it is entirely accurate to say there was no velocity drop in the 2nd half of 2011 for Pineda. In his first 14 starts his average velocity was at or above 95 MPH 5 times. In his last 14 starts of the season his average velocity was at or above 95 MPH just once, and not at all over his last 9 starts. Is that significant? I don't know but it sure seems like a velocity drop to me:

Attachment 21344

I think the 95 number is pretty arbitrary, but so is that analysis. If you dissect the first 14, he averaged 95 3 times in the first 6 games. Then after that he only hit or exceeded it 3 times in the next 22. It would probably be more helpful to see his average velocity by month or something

[Philip Hughes Fan]

Brooks Baseball has the average velocity by month:
http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=501381

Fourseam fastball average velocity by month in 2011:
April: 96.56
May: 96.08
June: 94.97
July: 95.24
August: 94.88
September: 93.63

[snapple]

Brooks Baseball has the average velocity by month:
http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=501381

Fourseam fastball average velocity by month in 2011:
April: 96.56
May: 96.08
June: 94.97
July: 95.24
August: 94.88
September: 93.63

With one start in september coming off of 11 days rest...

[Mr Coffee]

Brooks Baseball has the average velocity by month:
http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=501381

Fourseam fastball average velocity by month in 2011:
April: 96.56
May: 96.08
June: 94.97
July: 95.24
August: 94.88
September: 93.63

Is that unusual? I'm asking-- I really have no idea.

[Philip Hughes Fan]

Is that unusual? I'm asking-- I really have no idea.

I have no idea either. My first thought is that a rookie pitcher just hitting a wall in September probably isn't that odd, and assuming the Yankees got up to date medical reports on him before the deal was done I see it more as bad luck than bad decision making.

snapple is right about there also being extenuating circumstances for his final start. However, his velocity in the first two starts in September was already down, though not a lot. That the M's gave him so much time off before his final start suggests they believed he was fatigued as well, otherwise I don't think a decrease of a 1-1.5MPH in average velocity would mean anything for two starts.

1st start: about 93.4MPH
2nd start: about 94MPH
3rd start (after 11 days off): About 90.7 MPH

If they really thought he was damaged goods I doubt they would have brought him back at all for that final start.

[False1]

Pineda's ERA the 2nd half of the season was over 5, which also included a few low velocity games mixed in. Big red flags. Cashman is the best GM the other 29 teams ever had.

The games where his ERA suffered most were games where he had velocity to spare. He got rocked in 3 consecutive starts in July that saw his season ERA jump by >1.

In 2 of those starts, he appeared on the pitchFX data to be sitting right around 95, and touching upper 90's. The third start he looked a little lower in terms of velocity, but came right back in his first August start with 95 - 98.

His ERA in July was 6.75. His K/9 was 10/9 (!!). His xFIP was 3.14. The issues? His BB/9 elevated some and his babip was .294 - almost 40 points higher than his season babip.

Look deeper. If this guy's shoulder hasn't been Top Ramenized, he's the goods without question.

[False1]

Brooks Baseball has the average velocity by month:
http://brooksbaseball.net/player_car...?player=501381

Fourseam fastball average velocity by month in 2011:
April: 96.56
May: 96.08
June: 94.97
July: 95.24
August: 94.88
September: 93.63

His worst performing month measured by ERA? July. Though of course he had his highest K rate that month also.

I don't think this in and of itself is very surprising. He was a rookie pitcher getting stretched out, probably tired a bit down the stretch.

In August they started giving him 6 days rest, then in September's 3 starts he was on 7, 7 and 11 (!!) days rest.

[Benefactor]

If they really thought he was damaged goods I doubt they would have brought him back at all for that final start.

One would think that trading away the organization's #1 prospect for a pitcher coming off a huge velocity drop, albeit for one start, would be enough of a red flag to prompt a dye-contrast MRI at the time of the Physical. Why leave stone's unturned? Most labrum tears won't show up in a regular MRI.

[snapple]

One would think that trading away the organization's #1 prospect for a pitcher coming off a huge velocity drop, albeit for one start, would be enough of a red flag to prompt a dye-contrast MRI at the time of the Physical. Why leave stone's unturned? Most labrum tears won't show up in a regular MRI.

becaue it is unnecessary. hindsight is 20/20 and you sound like a doofus making these kinds of posts.

[JL25and3]

One would think that trading away the organization's #1 prospect for a pitcher coming off a huge velocity drop, albeit for one start, would be enough of a red flag to prompt a dye-contrast MRI at the time of the Physical. Why leave stone's unturned? Most labrum tears won't show up in a regular MRI.

Who says most labrum tears won't show up in a regular MRI? Most of them do. However, most of them don't show up before they happen, and Pineda's appears to have happened in spring training.