The bad call... did it matter?

[RedRamage]

Howdy all,

Tigers fan visiting from MotownSports.com. I'm curious to hear the Yankee fans' perspective on the blown call from last nights game. One person in our game thread over there saying something the effect that the play didn't matter because the Yanks didn't score anyway, so the extra runs were meaningless. This is my response:

I don't think it's totally fair to say that the call didn't matter. Had they correctly called Infante out it would have been 1-0 Tigers going into the bottom of the 8th. This means Coke would have pitched with a 1 run lead instead of a 3 run lead. There's no question that that would have put more pressure on Coke. The guy coming up to bat is the tying run instead of the guy in the hole. The go ahead run in on deck instead of still sitting on the bench waiting for his turn to come up to bat.

Further, the hitters have a different mindset as well. They know one swing could tie the game. Just getting on base means the go ahead run is now at the plate. The 8th inning, and potentially the 9th inning have a completely different feel to them if it's 1-0 vs. 3-0. Just one example: Do you think ARod is allowed to steal second unchallenged in the 9th if it's 1-0 instead of 3-0? Now a base hit from Granderson ties the game.

I would absolutely be making this argument if the Tigers were the ones the play went against. Who knows what would happen in two innings with a 1 run lead instead of 3 runs.

Now, having said that, the Yankee's offense has been virtually non-existent this series. Consider that except for Valverde, Tiger's pitchers have kept them off the score board for 19 innings. I think it is fully reasonable to say that the Tigers would have likely kept them scoreless in the 8th and 9th. Yes, there would be more tension and stress, but I think it still would have happened.

Further, the assumption is that Jackson, Garcia, Cabrera and Fielder aren't able to make anything happen in the 9th. Yeah, they would have started off with no one on base, but also would have started off with zero outs instead of two.

In short: In was a bad call, a call that did have an impact on the game. But the full impact is quite unknown. Might things have happened differently had the right call been made? Possibly, but also quite possibly not.

Like I said above, I'm curious what your thoughts are.

Also, can't say that I'm happy that someone is hurt, but I can say that I'm happy Jeter is out of the lineup. I think that helps us in the series both from a talent standpoint but also from a leadership standpoint.

[JOBA RULES]

Wouldn't of mattered with this offense. Bottom line.

[NerfBall55]

Game one's call mattered. Game two's call is impossible to know, so I will neither speculate nor blame.

As bad as NY's offense has been, 0-2 could have been avoided from some combo of fielding gaffes/Umps calls. But it's irrelevant, and all that matters are the next games.

[jpao89]

The blown call was a blessing in disguise. If Kuroda gets out of that inning the Yankees would have wasted yet another outstanding pitching effort on a loss. This way, the "coming up small" gang can ride off to Detroit (probably never to return to NY) with an excuse.

[matt2351]

I think the blown call at first in game one was bigger.

[Yankee Tripper]

It is a big difference between down 1-0 coming off the field after a great defensive play that fires up the crowd with the top of the order batting, v coming in 20 minutes later after 3 pitching changes and 2 more runs on the board. Don't know if it would have changed the outcome but it couldn't have been much worse for the Yanks.

[JDPNYY]

Yes, the bad calls matter.

The Cano bad call matters.
The out at 2B matters.
The terrible strike zone matters.

It's all a bunch of crap that could easily be corrected. However, MLB still wishes to live in the 1920's.

[NelsonMuntz]

Regardless of whether it actually impacted the outcome of the game it was an egregious mistake in one of the biggest games of the year. We shouldn't have to be asking the question. That simply should not happen and could have been prevented with instant replay.

[RedRamage]

Regardless of whether it actually impacted the outcome of the game it was an egregious mistake in one of the biggest games of the year. We shouldn't have to be asking the question. That simply should not happen and could have been prevented with instant replay.

I don't disagree with that. But that isn't the point of the thread. I'm interesting to hear if Yankees fans feel if the bad call had a legit influence on the outcome of the game.

Obviously based on my earlier comments I think it had some influence. I think the probability of a Yankee comeback is unquestionably higher if its just a 1 run game. I mean obviously you only need one run to tie, but beyond that the added stress on the pitchers with a 1 run lead vs. a 3 run lead comes into play comes into play as well. The question is then... how much more likely is it that the Yankees are able to mount a come back?

[Yankee Tripper]

I don't disagree with that. But that isn't the point of the thread. I'm interesting to hear if Yankees fans feel if the bad call had a legit influence on the outcome of the game.

Obviously based on my earlier comments I think it had some influence. I think the probability of a Yankee comeback is unquestionably higher if its just a 1 run game. I mean obviously you only need one run to tie, but beyond that the added stress on the pitchers with a 1 run lead vs. a 3 run lead comes into play comes into play as well. The question is then... how much more likely is it that the Yankees are able to mount a come back?

It is impossible to tell. Who knows pitch selection is the same in B8 with 1 runs lead v 3 run lead. Does Coke stay in the whole inning? Probably with Ichiro/Cano/tiexiera

Who know who pitches for Yanks in T9 if game is 1-0. Does Kuroda start? Robertson? Joba? Or how GArcia and Co. hit in T9 v T8.

Obviously as it played out the Yanks chances got much worse. But, since the Yanks have now scored 0 runs in 20.1 IP thrown by Detroit pitchers not named Jose Valverde, it may not have matter at all one way or the other.

If you want to know probablites. After the before the Jackson single the Tigers has a 72% chance to win the game. If Infante is called out I'm guessing that drops back down to 71%. At the end of the inning with a 3 -0 lead that increased to 91%. So the Tigers improved their chance of winning by 28% (the percentage change from 71% to 91%). The basically went from a 7 out of 10 favorite to a 9 out of 10 favorite.

[effdamets]

We'll never know.
But I can say that a pitcher pitching with a 1 run lead probably pitches a bit different than a pitcher pitching with a 3 run lead.

[NelsonMuntz]

I don't disagree with that. But that isn't the point of the thread. I'm interesting to hear if Yankees fans feel if the bad call had a legit influence on the outcome of the game.

Obviously based on my earlier comments I think it had some influence. I think the probability of a Yankee comeback is unquestionably higher if its just a 1 run game. I mean obviously you only need one run to tie, but beyond that the added stress on the pitchers with a 1 run lead vs. a 3 run lead comes into play comes into play as well. The question is then... how much more likely is it that the Yankees are able to mount a come back?

Obviously it is easier to score 1 run than 3 runs so yes, I do think it changed the complexion of the game. It is a hypothetical question though so we'll never really know if the outcome would have been different if the correct call was made.

[ymike673]

We'll never know.
But I can say that a pitcher pitching with a 1 run lead probably pitches a bit different than a pitcher pitching with a 3 run lead.

Plus its a pitcher that was not normally the closer. Might have been more pressure on him with just one run to play with. One mistake could be a tie game.

But Saturday's blown call was even worse. Who knows what happens if Cano was safe. Then you had Ibanez up with the bags full.

[Battingly]

It mattered in that it took away any chance we had at coming back, because the way we are hitting a 3 run lead might just as well be a 30 run lead, but there's no way of know if we could have scratched out a run to tie it if thats all we needed.

In that case the dynamics change for both the pitchers and the hitters in a one run game, so we had a chance (A CHANCE) to win that game if the correct call is made and we keep it at 1, but I'm not optimistic we would have scored even one measly run in that game.

[False1]

I think it's impossible to say whether it mattered. I will say it is not an excuse, and that the way this offense has vaporized who knows if they pick up that run.

It's water under the bridge but other than potentially prompting dialogue around instant replay there's no value in complaining about it. It's a loss.

[gold23]

It certainly mattered. The real question is whether it changed the outcome. The answer to the first is undeniably yes. The answer to the second is we have no idea. Statistically, the Tigers were still very likely to win that game. However, you probably see Benoit in there at some point, and he gives up HR like it's candy. Coke also tends to struggle a bit more the tighter the game, and the Yankee batters are obviously approaching at bats differently down 1-0 than 3-0 (when your only job is to get on base...a bit more patient, etc).

[Hitman23]

I was more angry at the fan who got in the way of the foul pop up. I know a runner may have tagged up and possibly scored but I would have rather have had the play and possibly throw him out. After that fan interfered the run wound up scoring anyway and there was a runner in scoring position after. I know THAT run didn't score but all around it put the Yankees in a bad position. Fans need to be responsible for their seats especially when they interfere with an out we need. Pathetic. Bad fan. Bad bad fan. I would have punched him if I was next to him.

[enozlac]

I was more angry at the fan who got in the way of the foul pop up. I know a runner may have tagged up and possibly scored but I would have rather have had the play and possibly throw him out. After that fan interfered the run wound up scoring anyway and there was a runner in scoring position after. I know THAT run didn't score but all around it put the Yankees in a bad position. Fans need to be responsible for their seats especially when they interfere with an out we need. Pathetic. Bad fan. Bad bad fan. I would have punched him if I was next to him.

Some of the fans at the stadium are really, really STUPID. They get in the way and interfere with our players on plays they could possibly make.

Then on a play like Jacksons ball down the line where reaching over the side and touching the ball would turn his triple into a ground rule double, but of course THIS time they let the ball roll past them without reaching out.

I bet if the same scenario occured at YS with a yankee player hitting that ball down the line, a fan would interfere with it.

There should be a fan course on letting them know when to touch/interfere and when not to.

[Hitman23]

I noticed that as well. Some fans know their responsibility in seats that can possibly interfere but unfortunately most fans don't. They want a stupid ball. It's really ridiculous. It happened in another game recently, don't recall which one, Chavez caught the ball anyway though.

[smr15]

RED!

.... howdy, partner.

I'll answer your question, if you talk to old Smokey and convince him to put Valverde back in to close.
Deal?

[False1]

I was more angry at the fan who got in the way of the foul pop up. I know a runner may have tagged up and possibly scored but I would have rather have had the play and possibly throw him out. After that fan interfered the run wound up scoring anyway and there was a runner in scoring position after. I know THAT run didn't score but all around it put the Yankees in a bad position. Fans need to be responsible for their seats especially when they interfere with an out we need. Pathetic. Bad fan. Bad bad fan. I would have punched him if I was next to him.

That might have made you an avid fan, but a worse person. I'm guessing you're being facetious, but if not... c'mon Steve. You've seen infielders range back and forth under a foul ball, yes? You're sitting there and the ball looks like it's coming right at you and you react. Or it's behind you and drifts towards you very quickly in it's descent. Everyone around you is nudging to make a play on it. I doubt these fans are thinking they're going to prevent an out. And, although I know if I had the presence of mind at the time I'd make a different decision, the ball is technically out of play and if they go for it so be it. In other words, I admire a fan for getting out of the way, but certainly not going to hate on one that doesn't. And I REALLY don't like when players get miffed at fans in those scenarios, like Alou did on the Bartman play or as Tex mildly did on the play I think you're referring to.

[Bub]

I think it's impossible to say whether it mattered. I will say it is not an excuse, and that the way this offense has vaporized who knows if they pick up that run.

It's water under the bridge but other than potentially prompting dialogue around instant replay there's no value in complaining about it. It's a loss.

I'm fully on board with this explanation. The complete lack of offense is such a mystery that any horrendous call by an ump is adding small insult to large injury.

[apalradio]

I'm fully on board with this explanation. The complete lack of offense is such a mystery that any horrendous call by an ump is adding small insult to large injury.

True enough, but the lack of offense is not as much of a mystery as it may seem. Fans on this forum have been bemoaning this team's offensive shortcomings for months. The all or nothing slugging approach works over the long haul of a 162 game season. But as we all know, the postseason pitching is usually just too good to rely on slugging your way through. You could see this coming a mile away. It'll be interesting to see if they can pull out of this with what little time is left.

[kongull]

Yes, the bad calls matter.

The Cano bad call matters.
The out at 2B matters.
The terrible strike zone matters.

It's all a bunch of crap that could easily be corrected. However, MLB still wishes to live in the 1920's.

Fans are just as guilty.

[JDPNYY]

Fans are just as guilty.

Where are the fans that do not want instant replay to aid the umpires?