Miggy with legit shot at the Triple Crown

[freebubba]

Tied for the lead in BA, leading in RBI's, and 4 off the pace in HR's. As much as I'd like to see Jeter win the batting title, I'm pulling for Miggy to do this - I think it would be great for the game.

[BRNXBMRS]

It will eventually happen, these hiters are just too good.

[Snatch Catch]

It will eventually happen, these hiters are just too good.

It's funny - that's the reason why I think it's LESS likely these days.

[NelsonMuntz]

I think it's more likely to happen now in the "post steroid" era. The HR lead is more attainable for high average guys than it was when seemingly every team had a 50 HR guy.

[effdamets]

There has only been one triple crown winner in the history of baseball to hit 50 or more homers in the season which he won the award....

[NelsonMuntz]

There has only been one triple crown winner in the history of baseball to hit 50 or more homers in the season which he won the award....

Right. That's essentially the point I was alluding to in my last post. Now that HR rates have normalized it opens the door to a much wider pool of players who can realistically lead in both the HR and AVG categories.

[sweet_lou_14]

There has only been one triple crown winner in the history of baseball to hit 50 or more homers in the season which he won the award....

[NYYankeesFan92]

There has only been one triple crown winner in the history of baseball to hit 50 or more homers in the season which he won the award....

[RenoHightower]

It's funny - that's the reason why I think it's LESS likely these days.

I'm with you.

Also, I'm unclear why it would be good if Cabrera, who is a jerk, were to win the triple crown. Especially if it costs Jeter, a much better citizen, a batting title.

[Jace]

Right. That's essentially the point I was alluding to in my last post. Now that HR rates have normalized it opens the door to a much wider pool of players who can realistically lead in both the HR and AVG categories.

Why would some players' HR rates normalize more than others? Unless you think only the 40-50 HR guys were on steroids, but that not only seems unlikely, it isnt supported by the people who have failed tests

[NelsonMuntz]

Why would some players' HR rates normalize more than others? Unless you think only the 40-50 HR guys were on steroids, but that not only seems unlikely, it isnt supported by the people who have failed tests

Are home run rates not down since MLB implemented the PED testing and tougher penalties?

[Jace]

Are home run rates not down since MLB implemented the PED testing and tougher penalties?

Sure, and thats my point, that its probably across the board. It seems like your point is that the low average, high HR hitters are the ones whose HR totals have declined, and that the higher average, medium HR hitters are now closer to the league-leading HR totals. Why wouldn't these hitters have their HR totals decline as well?

I think you are also making an assumption that the former higher HR hitters had lower averages, which may be true, but its pretty anecdotal. You are also making an assumption that HR rates have gone down but BA has stayed the same, which isn't true (batting average has gone down leaguewide as well)

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

I dont think the triple crown is any more likely to happen now than it was before, since these effects are across the board

[Hitman23]

I think the point is that a guy with around 35-40 home runs is more likely to get it and that number is much more attainable by a larger group of players rather than the few that were hitting 50 and 60. Yes they are down across the board but there are still more players who have the ability to hit that number with or without steroids. It's back to what it used to be.

Of all the things in baseball I would love to see in the future a triple crown winner is one of the biggest. I personally don't care who it is I just want to see it.

[pjfan]

I'm with you.

Also, I'm unclear why it would be good if Cabrera, who is a jerk, were to win the triple crown. Especially if it costs Jeter, a much better citizen, a batting title.

I can't imagine a lot of people care about that. I'm sure Yankee fans want to see Jeter win the batting title, because he's their guy, but I would imagine baseball fans across the country would love to see a TC winner.

It's like the Tiger Woods debate. Obviously, a terrible husband and not a good person, but I love to see him win golf events.

[JL25and3]

I'm with you.

Also, I'm unclear why it would be good if Cabrera, who is a jerk, were to win the triple crown. Especially if it costs Jeter, a much better citizen, a batting title.

I'm not at all clear that Mickey Mantle was any less of a jerk or a better citizen than Miguel Cabrera.

[NelsonMuntz]

I think the point is that a guy with around 35-40 home runs is more likely to get it and that number is much more attainable by a larger group of players rather than the few that were hitting 50 and 60. Yes they are down across the board but there are still more players who have the ability to hit that number with or without steroids. It's back to what it used to be.

Of all the things in baseball I would love to see in the future a triple crown winner is one of the biggest. I personally don't care who it is I just want to see it.

Yes, that was precisely my point.

[freebubba]

Jesus, the Mick took a stride in his swing, didn't he. Too bad Kevin Long wasn't around back then to fix that for him .

[Jace]

Yes, that was precisely my point.

The winning HR total being lower doesn't mean the triple crown is more winnable.

As Hitman said... a larger pool of players is near the winning HR total. So there are even more potential winners... which means the category winners are even more likely to be fragmented among different players. more players in the neighborhood means its less likely that someone can win all 3

[NerfBall55]

It's like the Tiger Woods debate. Obviously, a terrible husband and not a good person, but I love to see him win golf events.

It's funny - Jeter's off field hit rate most likely destroys Woods', but since he didn't get married, it's all good.

[NelsonMuntz]

The winning HR total being lower doesn't mean the triple crown is more winnable.

As Hitman said... a larger pool of players is near the winning HR total. So there are even more potential winners... which means the category winners are even more likely to be fragmented among different players. more players in the neighborhood means its less likely that someone can win all 3

I disagree. Cabrera has never hit more than 38 HR's in a season. He would have zero shot at the triple crown if JAGs like Shawn Green were still popping out 58 bombs.

[Jace]

I disagree. Cabrera has never hit more than 38 HR's in a season. He would have zero shot at the triple crown if JAGs like Shawn Green were still popping out 58 bombs.

Your argument is anecdotal (single non-contextual example), im making a general argument that doesn't need anecdotes. More players in the range of winning means more variation in category winners. This is just statistics

But to go down your road, the AL HR title winners from 1997-2005 were Griffey, Manny, and Arod except for one year. Griffey hit near .300 those years, Manny hit well above .300, and Arod hit well over .300 in the aggregate his HR title years as well

That shows that fairly high average guys won the HR title... but my main point is that steroids obviously boosted BA as well as HRs. More hard contact. This is born out by league BA falling by a similar degree as HRs (from ~.270 down to ~.255 these days)

And even though it doesnt matter on the whole, Cabrera is close-ish, but he's not even convincingly winning a single category. Its still a pretty long shot

[jlw1980]

I'm not at all clear that Mickey Mantle was any less of a jerk or a better citizen than Miguel Cabrera.

He was a Yankee. Therefore he couldn't have been a jerk. Geez.

[JL25and3]

He was a Yankee. Therefore he couldn't have been a jerk. Geez.

Billy Martin and Mel Hall were Yankees, too.

[Hitman23]

He was a Yankee. Therefore he couldn't have been a jerk. Geez.

Of course. Only other teams have assholes. Every player who has ever been successful on this team has been a model citizen and classy individual.

[jlw1980]

Of course. Only other teams have assholes. Every player who has ever been successful on this team has been a model citizen and classy individual.

I was being sarcastic, Steve.