Amazing Yankee Stat This season in regards to lack of 9th inning or later comebacks

[scine20]

You probably heard Michael Kay say last night that the Yankees are 0-34 (0-35 after last night's debacle) when trailing after 8 innings. Well I did some digging and it's amazing that they are where they are with these numbers and that they aren't about 12 or 13 games up in the east:

Of those 35 losses, the Yankees had the tying or winning run at the plate in 16 of them in the 9th inning.

In 20 of their 42 losses they have either had the game tying or winning run at the plate in the 9th inning or later.

In addition to those 20 losses, they also have another 3 losses where they were either tied or had the lead going into the 9th and blew it. That's another 3 games they easily could have won.

They have gotten to one closer the entire season in the 9th inning or later for a blown save. That was against Jose Valverde and the Tigers ended up winning in the bottom of the 9th.

They have had the game winning run at the plate in 4 of their home losses, twice with the winning run at 2nd. Of course we know how that turned out.

In games where the games have either gone to extra innings or were tied at some point in the 9th the Yankees are 5-7.

In 5 of their 42 losses they've had the tying, go ahead or winning run at 2nd or 3rd with 0 or 1 out in the 9th inning or later.

Despite having the best record in the American League, the Yankees are just 22-21 in games decided by 2 runs or less.

What does that all say? That the Yankees record should be a lot better than it is and that there's a serious issue with late-game hitting.

[False1]

You probably heard Michael Kay say last night that the Yankees are 0-34 (0-35 after last night's debacle) when trailing after 8 innings. Well I did some digging and it's amazing that they are where they are with these numbers and that they aren't about 12 or 13 games up in the east:

Of those 35 losses, the Yankees had the tying or winning run at the plate in 16 of them in the 9th inning.

In 20 of their 42 losses they have either had the game tying or winning run at the plate in the 9th inning or later.

In addition to those 20 losses, they also have another 3 losses where they were either tied or had the lead going into the 9th and blew it. That's another 3 games they easily could have won.

They have gotten to one closer the entire season in the 9th inning or later for a blown save. That was against Jose Valverde and the Tigers ended up winning in the bottom of the 9th.

They have had the game winning run at the plate in 4 of their home losses, twice with the winning run at 2nd. Of course we know how that turned out.

In games where the games have either gone to extra innings or were tied at some point in the 9th the Yankees are 5-7.

In 5 of their 42 losses they've had the tying, go ahead or winning run at 2nd or 3rd with 0 or 1 out in the 9th inning or later.

Despite having the best record in the American League, the Yankees are just 22-21 in games decided by 2 runs or less.

What does that all say? That the Yankees record should be a lot better than it is and that there's a serious issue with late-game hitting.

I'm inserting a reply to two comments from the "general" thread on this subject. Would they be better if they'd executed in many of those situations? Of course. Is it practical to expect them to be materially better than 60-42? The inverse of this means that they are exceptionally good when not having to scratch and claw out a victory. I love a late game comeback as much as the next fan, but ultimately why is the timing so important to many here? Do we expect them to win 75% of their games?

______________________________________________

More importantly, 0-30-something when trailing after 8.
Not a single successful ninth-inning comeback.

Why do people get so hung up on the timing of when games are won? Outside of a little adrenaline rush, what does it matter if the winning run comes in the 9th, the 8th, the 7th, the 1st? Or if the defense gives up the winning run, what significance does the inning have ultimately?

Using sOPS+, their offense is 28% better than league average and their pitching is 1% better than league average in innings 7 through 9. Why lose sleep over the fact that they don't have a 9th inning comeback victory, particularly when they a 60-42 record?

They have not tied a game at home in the ninth inning this season.

...and yet have won >60% of their home games.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

I'm inserting a reply to two comments from the "general" thread on this subject. Would they be better if they'd executed in many of those situations? Of course. Is it practical to expect them to be materially better than 60-42? The inverse of this means that they are exceptionally good when not having to scratch and claw out a victory. I love a late game comeback as much as the next fan, but ultimately why is the timing so important to many here? Do we expect them to win 75% of their games?

______________________________________________


Why do people get so hung up on the timing of when games are won? Outside of a little adrenaline rush, what does it matter if the winning run comes in the 9th, the 8th, the 7th, the 1st? Or if the defense gives up the winning run, what significance does the inning have ultimately?

Using sOPS+, their offense is 28% better than league average and their pitching is 1% better than league average in innings 7 through 9. Why lose sleep over the fact that they don't have a 9th inning comeback victory, particularly when they a 60-42 record?

...and yet have won >60% of their home games.

A much more supported and thoughtful response than I would have given but, yeah -- if the pitching staff was worse and the Yankees had to win all their games coming from behind, I'm sure people would just citing "the serious issue" with the pitching.

[scine20]

The point I was trying to make is that their record should be somewhere in the 65-37, 68-32 range.

There's no excuse for the Yankees record to be where it is right now.

Whether it's poor clutch hitting or bad defensive plays the Yankees continue to cost themselves winable game after winable game.

[False1]

The point I was trying to make is that their record should be somewhere in the 65-37 range.

There's no excuse for the Yankees record to be where it is right now.

Whether it's poor clutch hitting or bad defensive plays the Yankees continue to cost themselves winable game after winable game.

But it doesn't work that way. You can't pick and choose what should have happened that didn't or vice versa. If they had 5 comeback wins, and 5 less "early lead" wins, what difference would that make? They were down 9-1 against the Sox going into the 7th inning on 4/21 and won that game 15-9. Probably shouldn't have, right? Would it have been any different if they were down 9-1 going into the 9th and won 10-9? Not in my opinion.

[JL25and3]

The point I was trying to make is that their record should be somewhere in the 65-37, 68-32 range.

There's no excuse for the Yankees record to be where it is right now.

Whether it's poor clutch hitting or bad defensive plays the Yankees continue to cost themselves winable game after winable game.

All games are winnable.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

The point I was trying to make is that their record should be somewhere in the 65-37, 68-32 range.

There's no excuse for the Yankees record to be where it is right now.

Whether it's poor clutch hitting or bad defensive plays the Yankees continue to cost themselves winable game after winable game.

So you think the floor of this team is 103 wins? Over the course of a season, every team loses 10s of games they could have won --it's the nature of a 162 game schedule. They're in a bad streak right now -- it happens. It's hard to believe they need an "excuse" for having the best record in the AL

[tim2nyy]

You could look at plenty of other teams and argue that their records should be better as well.

[Yankee Tripper]

The point I was trying to make is that their record should be somewhere in the 65-37, 68-32 range.

There's no excuse for the Yankees record to be where it is right now.

Whether it's poor clutch hitting or bad defensive plays the Yankees continue to cost themselves winable game after winable game.

The Yankees are 60-42.
According to baseball-reference they have scored 492 runs and allowed 409 runs lead to a pytagorean record of...wait for it....
















60-42 or exactly what is exected.

Sure if they got a few key hits here or there they would be a few games better. The flip side is if the pen gave up a few more kety hits here or there they would be a few games worse.

I wish they were 13 games up too but they are not. The good news is they are 6.5 games up on 7/31. It's a good place to be at this time of the year. Could it be better? sure it could. But it is still picking nits on a team with the best record in the AL and on pace to win 95 games.

[Mr. Mxylsplk]

You could look at plenty of other teams and argue that their records should be better as well.

Heck, depending on one's opinion of the pythagorean theorem and adjusted offensive metrics, there's a strong argument that the yankees' record is exactly where it should be.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/standings/</p>Edit - or what yankee tripper beat me to.

[scine20]

You could look at plenty of other teams and argue that their records should be better as well.

What other teams come up short every single time they're trailing in the 9th inning or later?

[tim2nyy]

What other teams come up short every single time they're trailing in the 9th inning or later?

I assume you've followed every game played by every other team?

[Yankee Tripper]

What other teams come up short every single time they're trailing in the 9th inning or later?

Not Oakland.

[False1]

What other teams come up short every single time they're trailing in the 9th inning or later?

What other team has gotten an early lead and kept it 60 times this season?

[Blazer]

This is even more interesting because the Yanks lead the AL in runs and OPS from the 7th inning to the end of the game. They're also 3rd in era for those innings.

If I were going to venture a guess I would say it's the lack of clutch hitting combined with Girardi using the weak part of the pen when behind.

[False1]

This is even more interesting because the Yanks lead the AL in runs and OPS from the 7th inning to the end of the game. They're also 3rd in era for those innings.

If I were going to venture a guess I would say it's the lack of clutch hitting combined with Girardi using the weak part of the pen when behind.

It's interesting for sure.

They are the best in the league offensively in innings 1-3, league average innings 4 - 6, and the best in innings 7-9. They've scored 20 more runs than the runner up (Texas) in innings 7-9. They're the best in the business in high leverage scenarios overall.

What you mention above could be true. Some of it is probably also that they in many cases build early leads that they don't give up, thereby necessitating a late rally.

[scine20]

This is even more interesting because the Yanks lead the AL in runs and OPS from the 7th inning to the end of the game. They're also 3rd in era for those innings.

If I were going to venture a guess I would say it's the lack of clutch hitting combined with Girardi using the weak part of the pen when behind.

What does Girardi's usage of the pen have to do with the Yankees not being able to get a big hit in the 9th inning?

[False1]

What does Girardi's usage of the pen have to do with the Yankees not being able to get a big hit in the 9th inning?

I believe he is theorizing that some of those "late rallies" are not materializing in W's because when trailing Girardi has used less effective pitchers that have given up runs that may have ultimately prevented a few come back wins. Not sure to what degree that contributes, but passes the sniff test to me.

By the way, I don't think anyone is disagreeing with you that both in terms of in-game excitement and the standings that the Yankees have left some games on the table that a clutch/late hit could have won. Stealing from the other threads that this has been discussed, I just don't see it as the playoff death knell that some do.

[Big_E]

Holy crap people, are you for real?

We lost Michael Pineda before the season started.
We got Andy Pettitte back in mid-May, only to lose him again 6 weeks later.
The greatest closer of all-time was lost for the season at the end of April.
Brett Gardner was lost for the season in mid-April
Joba Chamberlain has not pitched yet this season
CC spent time on the DL
A-Rod spent time on the DL

Am I missing anyone?

And yet we still have the best winning pct in the American League.

Calm the ................ down. Seriously. We have probably played over our heads this season. Be happy we are where we are.

/rant

[Blazer]

What does Girardi's usage of the pen have to do with the Yankees not being able to get a big hit in the 9th inning?

The scenario I envisioned was a home game with the Yanks trailing after 8. In the ninth the visitors tack on more runs against back end relievers to make a comeback even more improbable.

edit: I now see Falsie (Girardi made me do it) has already delivered a much more eloquent answer.

[sjanowsky]

The point I was trying to make is that their record should be somewhere in the 65-37, 68-32 range.

There's no excuse for the Yankees record to be where it is right now.

Whether it's poor clutch hitting or bad defensive plays the Yankees continue to cost themselves winable game after winable game.

Yes, I don't think anyone is saying (and certainly I was not implying) that they should have won another 30+ games, just that it is quite surprising that they haven't won at least a couple of them.

[CalYankeeFan]

Here's a ray of hope. They are 61-43 when they entered the 1st inning tied.

[False1]

Here's a ray of hope. They are 61-43 when they entered the 1st inning tied.

/end thread

[Nome]

Yes, I don't think anyone is saying (and certainly I was not implying) that they should have won another 30+ games, just that it is quite surprising that they haven't won at least a couple of them.

And how many have they lost going into the 8th with the lead?? It is equzlly surprising (statistically) that they should have lost more of those games.

To look at another situation, what is the BA of players who start off 0-1 in the count. I am sure itt is quite low. So that would lead one to instruct their pitchers to ALWAYS throw the first pitch to a batter in the strike zone. But if the batter KNEW that the first pitch would always be a strike his chances of getting a hit would be dramatically greater. We can "if" all we want, but the important thing is wins and losses, esp in the postseason

Andy

[scine20]

Add another game to the list of games that they had the go ahead runner in scoring position in the 9th.