2012 MVP Race

[JfromJersey]

Right or wrong, most of the voters will not give WAR as much weight as you might think. Trout had a great year, but the Angels, whom many considered a virtual lock for at least a WC, is not even in the post season, while Cabrera, who will be the 1st triple crown winner in 45 years is on a division winner. Miggy will win, and it won't be close (unless his off the field antics factor in).

[awy]

war is not a mystical measurement that adds some extra physical facts to the season. there's no separate war scoreboard over and above game events and runs scored in actual games. it is just another way of accounting for those runs.

it values defense and baserunning and posiitonal value etc on the same scale as offense runs, which are in themselves calculated to give credit to the right people.

war is looking at the same season as whatever other approach you are using. you can't engage war without understanding what it is exactly and disputing either the method of calculation or the figures themselves, element by element.

[Snatch Catch]

Talking about all-time MVP robbery (using bWAR) in last 40 years only (I skip the pitchers):

1998 AL
Juan Gonzalez 4.6 WAR
Alex Rodriguez 8.3WAR

1996 AL
Juan Gonzalez 3.5 WAR
Alex Rodriguez 9.2 WAR
Ken Griffey Jr 9.5 WAR

1987 AL
George Bell 4.6 WAR
Alan Trammell 8.0 WAR
Wade Boggs 8.2 WAR

1987 NL
Andre Dawson 3.7 WAR
Tony Gwynn 8.3 WAR
Eric Davis 7.7 WAR

1979 AL
Don Baylor 3.5 WAR
George Brett 8.4 WAR
Fred Lynn 8.6 WAR

1974 AL
Jeff Burroughs 3.2 WAR
Rod Carew 7.2 WAR

1974 NL
Steve Garvey 4.3 WAR
Mike Schmidt 9.5 WAR
Joe Morgan 8.4 WAR

This year result will likely like the 2000 AL one. Not the best outcome but is far from the worst MVP voting result.

2000
Jason Giambi 7.4 WAR
Alex Rodriguez 10.1WAR

The gap is only half the argument. The other piece is simply the staggering greatness of the season Trout has put up, in isolation. It isn't just that he's clearly better than Cabrera, it's that he's legendarily good at the same time.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...e-barry-bonds/

Via Baseball-Reference.com, here’s a list of all the 10+ WAR seasons by position players since Trout was born in 1991:

YEAR WAR
MIKE TROUT 2012 10.7
Barry Bonds 2004 10.3
Barry Bonds 2002 11.6
Barry Bonds 2001 11.6
Sammy Sosa 2001 10.1
Alex Rodriguez 2000 10.1
Cal Ripken Jr. 1991 11.3

And that’s it, that’s the whole list.

[RenoHightower]

Right or wrong, most of the voters will not give WAR as much weight as you might think. Trout had a great year, but the Angels, whom many considered a virtual lock for at least a WC, is not even in the post season, while Cabrera, who will be the 1st triple crown winner in 45 years is on a division winner. Miggy will win, and it won't be close (unless his off the field antics factor in).

It's not just WAR. Trout's had a better season by OPS+, wOBA, RC+, EqA, and every other advanced statistic. Trout has been the better hitter this year by a small margin while being a better fielder and baserunner by a massive margin. The "new school" people are supporting Trout because defense and baserunning have value, too.

[Snatch Catch]

Here are all the 10 WAR seasons since integration, for God's sake.

                                          
Rk             Player WAR/pos Year Age  Tm
1    Carl Yastrzemski    12.0 1967  27 BOS
2         Barry Bonds    11.6 2002  37 SFG
3         Barry Bonds    11.6 2001  36 SFG
4          Cal Ripken    11.3 1991  30 BAL
5       Mickey Mantle    11.1 1957  25 NYY
6       Mickey Mantle    11.0 1956  24 NYY
7         Willie Mays    10.9 1965  34 SFG
8          Joe Morgan    10.8 1975  31 CIN
9         Stan Musial    10.8 1948  27 STL
10         Mike Trout    10.7 2012  20 LAA
11        Willie Mays    10.7 1964  33 SFG
12        Robin Yount    10.4 1982  26 MIL
13        Barry Bonds    10.3 2004  39 SFG
14        Willie Mays    10.3 1954  23 NYG
15        Willie Mays    10.2 1963  32 SFG
16        Willie Mays    10.2 1962  31 SFG
17      Mickey Mantle    10.2 1961  29 NYY
18       Lou Boudreau    10.2 1948  30 CLE
19         Sammy Sosa    10.1 2001  32 CHC
20     Alex Rodriguez    10.1 2000  24 SEA
21   Carl Yastrzemski    10.0 1968  28 BOS
22        Willie Mays    10.0 1958  27 SFG

If nothing else, that list passes the sniff test for anyone unsure of WAR as a "new" or "unreliable" statistic.

[grizy]

Jeter has compiled 3.4 WAR so far this season, which is pretty darn good.

The difference between Trout and Miggy is almost as valuable as what Jeter has done for us over the replacement player (aka, basically Nunez) for the entire season.

[MTYankee23]

Here are all the 10 WAR seasons since integration, for God's sake.

                                          
Rk             Player WAR/pos Year Age  Tm
1    Carl Yastrzemski    12.0 1967  27 BOS
2         Barry Bonds    11.6 2002  37 SFG
3         Barry Bonds    11.6 2001  36 SFG
4          Cal Ripken    11.3 1991  30 BAL
5       Mickey Mantle    11.1 1957  25 NYY
6       Mickey Mantle    11.0 1956  24 NYY
7         Willie Mays    10.9 1965  34 SFG
8          Joe Morgan    10.8 1975  31 CIN
9         Stan Musial    10.8 1948  27 STL
10         Mike Trout    10.7 2012  20 LAA
11        Willie Mays    10.7 1964  33 SFG
12        Robin Yount    10.4 1982  26 MIL
13        Barry Bonds    10.3 2004  39 SFG
14        Willie Mays    10.3 1954  23 NYG
15        Willie Mays    10.2 1963  32 SFG
16        Willie Mays    10.2 1962  31 SFG
17      Mickey Mantle    10.2 1961  29 NYY
18       Lou Boudreau    10.2 1948  30 CLE
19         Sammy Sosa    10.1 2001  32 CHC
20     Alex Rodriguez    10.1 2000  24 SEA
21   Carl Yastrzemski    10.0 1968  28 BOS
22        Willie Mays    10.0 1958  27 SFG

If nothing else, that list passes the sniff test for anyone unsure of WAR as a "new" or "unreliable" statistic.

Willie Mays is on that list 6 times. He won 2 MVPs. In 1964 (a top 10 season all time prior to this year) he finished SIXTH in the MVP voting. And it wasn't as though the Giants were some last place team, they were 3 games out. ZERO 1st place votes. Knowing that I'm not sure why I'll be at all surprised that Cabrera wins.

[Yankee Tripper]

Per @fangraphs, Mike Trout (10.3 WAR) is more valuable than the Houston Astros (10.2 WAR).

[Bronson'sCornrows]

It's not just WAR. Trout's had a better season by OPS+, wOBA, RC+, EqA, and every other advanced statistic. Trout has been the better hitter this year by a small margin while being a better fielder and baserunner by a massive margin. The "new school" people are supporting Trout because defense and baserunning have value, too.

That's pretty much every argument I've made the past few days to people asking me this question. It's disappointing just how many people think that Miggy is getting a raw deal here. He's obviously going to win and he doesn't ................ing deserve it.

Dat defense... dat sb/cs ratio... Trout is giving me a massive baseball chub this year. Even if we can pretend that Cabrera has been better offensively this season (hint: he hasn't been), the differences in baserunning and defense should easily eclipse any imaginary gap between their offensive value this year. Unfortunately, voters are still old and stupid, and the gaps in RBI and HRs along with the Tigers making the playoffs has already sealed the deal for the codgers and mental midgets who run this .................

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Here are all the 10 WAR seasons since integration, for God's sake.

                                          
Rk             Player WAR/pos Year Age  Tm
1    Carl Yastrzemski    12.0 1967  27 BOS
2         Barry Bonds    11.6 2002  37 SFG
3         Barry Bonds    11.6 2001  36 SFG
4          Cal Ripken    11.3 1991  30 BAL
5       Mickey Mantle    11.1 1957  25 NYY
6       Mickey Mantle    11.0 1956  24 NYY
7         Willie Mays    10.9 1965  34 SFG
8          Joe Morgan    10.8 1975  31 CIN
9         Stan Musial    10.8 1948  27 STL
10         Mike Trout    10.7 2012  20 LAA
11        Willie Mays    10.7 1964  33 SFG
12        Robin Yount    10.4 1982  26 MIL
13        Barry Bonds    10.3 2004  39 SFG
14        Willie Mays    10.3 1954  23 NYG
15        Willie Mays    10.2 1963  32 SFG
16        Willie Mays    10.2 1962  31 SFG
17      Mickey Mantle    10.2 1961  29 NYY
18       Lou Boudreau    10.2 1948  30 CLE
19         Sammy Sosa    10.1 2001  32 CHC
20     Alex Rodriguez    10.1 2000  24 SEA
21   Carl Yastrzemski    10.0 1968  28 BOS
22        Willie Mays    10.0 1958  27 SFG

...

Willie Mays making the list as many times as Mantle and Bonds (the two next best guys) combined surprised me a little bit.

[Snatch Catch]

Willie Mays making the list as many times as Mantle and Bonds (the two next best guys) combined surprised me a little bit.

More interesting to me was that 4 of the 6 times were at age 30+.

Oh, and Trout's rookie year is above 5 of those 6.

[grizy]

Even old school guys are having trouble overlooking Trout's insane 129 Rs scored.

That's a function of his speed and good hitters behind him but it's something old schoolers look at.

[Big_E]

I don't understand this sort of talk.

"Player A has clearly earned this award by have a once-in-a-career type season, but it would be OK if we gave it to a different guy who wasn't nearly as good."

I know who you mean, but Player A could be Cabrera, having a once-in-a-career season, winning the Triple Crown, as much as Trout with his WAR.

However, if you ignore SB and look at the stats 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 Runs, .323 BA (Trout's numbers) then since 1901, 59 people, not including Trout, have had such seasons.

If you look at Cabrera's stats, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 109 R, .331 BA, then only 17 other people have had such seasons. And since integration, only 3. Todd Helton in 2001, Manny Ramirez in 1999 and Cabrera this year.

[RenoHightower]

I know who you mean, but Player A could be Cabrera, having a once-in-a-career season, winning the Triple Crown, as much as Trout with his WAR.

However, if you ignore SB and look at the stats 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 Runs, .323 BA (Trout's numbers) then since 1901, 59 people, not including Trout, have had such seasons.

If you look at Cabrera's stats, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 109 R, .331 BA, then only 17 other people have had such seasons. And since integration, only 3. Todd Helton in 2001, Manny Ramirez in 1999 and Cabrera this year.

Right, but using only BA, HR, RBI, and R is a pretty myopic way to look at this. I'm not talking about listing players that have met specific arbitrary statistical marks, I'm talking about how infrequently a player is as good, on the whole, as Trout has been this year. Cabrera isn't having that kind of a season.

[pleasepassthesoup]

I know who you mean, but Player A could be Cabrera, having a once-in-a-career season, winning the Triple Crown, as much as Trout with his WAR.

However, if you ignore SB and look at the stats 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 Runs, .323 BA (Trout's numbers) then since 1901, 59 people, not including Trout, have had such seasons.

If you look at Cabrera's stats, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 109 R, .331 BA, then only 17 other people have had such seasons. And since integration, only 3. Todd Helton in 2001, Manny Ramirez in 1999 and Cabrera this year.

Yes, if you remove the aspects of the sport that show that Trout is having a better season than Cabrera, then Cabrera is having a better season than Trout...

I have 0 losses this year. David Price has 5. If we only look at the area where I'm better, I'm having the better year.

[Big_E]

Right, but using only BA, HR, RBI, and R is a pretty myopic way to look at this. I'm not talking about listing players that have met specific arbitrary statistical marks, I'm talking about how infrequently a player is as good, on the whole, as Trout has been this year. Cabrera isn't having that kind of a season.

And if you count oWAR Trout is having the 77th best season (tied with 7 other players). His dWAR isn't even in the Top 500

[Yankee Tripper]

I know who you mean, but Player A could be Cabrera, having a once-in-a-career season, winning the Triple Crown, as much as Trout with his WAR.

However, if you ignore SB and look at the stats 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 Runs, .323 BA (Trout's numbers) then since 1901, 59 people, not including Trout, have had such seasons.

If you look at Cabrera's stats, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 109 R, .331 BA, then only 17 other people have had such seasons. And since integration, only 3. Todd Helton in 2001, Manny Ramirez in 1999 and Cabrera this year.

And neither of them won the MVP.

What happens if you add in Trout's 49 SB and Miggy's 4 SBs to your arbitraty set of stats?

For Miggy I think you get to throw out Ramirez (2 SB) and bring the list to just Helton (7 SB).

For Trout since integration, I'm guess the list is just him because Bonds didn't have a .323 AVE (only .301) when he went 30/50.

[MTYankee23]

And if you count oWAR Trout is having the 77th best season (tied with 7 other players). His dWAR isn't even in the Top 500

The beauty of holding Trout's oWAR against him in this argument is that it's better than Cabrera's. That's how "special" of a season Miggy is having. His oWAR was better last year, and his team was also at least 7 games better than it finished this season.

[Hitman23]

Trout is giving me a massive baseball chub this year.

same here.

[Snatch Catch]

The beauty of holding Trout's oWAR against him in this argument is that it's better than Cabrera's. That's how "special" of a season Miggy is having. His oWAR was better last year, and his team was also at least 7 games better than it finished this season.

[sweet_lou_14]

I know this will piss everybody off, but what I learned from watching the afternoon games (Washington - Philly and Oakland - Texas), and from listening to the Yankees-Red Sox pregame on local Boston radio, is that broadcaster types seem unanimous in crowning Cabrera as the MVP.

These broadcasters aren't the actual MVP voters, of course, but I think it's reasonable to assume their opinions (which clearly aren't fully informed) have some correlation to what we'll see from the voters.

[NerfBall55]

I know this will piss everybody off, but what I learned from watching the afternoon games (Washington - Philly and Oakland - Texas), and from listening to the Yankees-Red Sox pregame on local Boston radio, is that broadcaster types seem unanimous in crowning Cabrera as the MVP.

These broadcasters aren't the actual MVP voters, of course, but I think it's reasonable to assume their opinions (which clearly aren't fully informed) have some correlation to what we'll see from the voters.

I don't doubt this at all. BA and RBI will determine the MVP. But anyone with more than a surface level knowledge of the game will know who deserved it.

[NYYankeesFan92]

[awy]

a victory for stupid

[NYYankeesFan92]

In case i didn't make myself clear enough in my initial post: