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Thread: 2012 MVP Race
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10-03-12 11:02 AM #301
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Right or wrong, most of the voters will not give WAR as much weight as you might think. Trout had a great year, but the Angels, whom many considered a virtual lock for at least a WC, is not even in the post season, while Cabrera, who will be the 1st triple crown winner in 45 years is on a division winner. Miggy will win, and it won't be close (unless his off the field antics factor in).
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10-03-12 11:09 AM #302
Re: 2012 MVP Race
war is not a mystical measurement that adds some extra physical facts to the season. there's no separate war scoreboard over and above game events and runs scored in actual games. it is just another way of accounting for those runs.
it values defense and baserunning and posiitonal value etc on the same scale as offense runs, which are in themselves calculated to give credit to the right people.
war is looking at the same season as whatever other approach you are using. you can't engage war without understanding what it is exactly and disputing either the method of calculation or the figures themselves, element by element.
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10-03-12 11:23 AM #303
Re: 2012 MVP Race
The gap is only half the argument. The other piece is simply the staggering greatness of the season Trout has put up, in isolation. It isn't just that he's clearly better than Cabrera, it's that he's legendarily good at the same time.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/20...e-barry-bonds/
Via Baseball-Reference.com, here’s a list of all the 10+ WAR seasons by position players since Trout was born in 1991:
YEAR WAR
MIKE TROUT 2012 10.7
Barry Bonds 2004 10.3
Barry Bonds 2002 11.6
Barry Bonds 2001 11.6
Sammy Sosa 2001 10.1
Alex Rodriguez 2000 10.1
Cal Ripken Jr. 1991 11.3
And that’s it, that’s the whole list.Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA
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10-03-12 11:46 AM #304
- Join Date
- Apr 2012
Re: 2012 MVP Race
It's not just WAR. Trout's had a better season by OPS+, wOBA, RC+, EqA, and every other advanced statistic. Trout has been the better hitter this year by a small margin while being a better fielder and baserunner by a massive margin. The "new school" people are supporting Trout because defense and baserunning have value, too.
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10-03-12 11:51 AM #305
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Here are all the 10 WAR seasons since integration, for God's sake.
Code:Rk Player WAR/pos Year Age Tm 1 Carl Yastrzemski 12.0 1967 27 BOS 2 Barry Bonds 11.6 2002 37 SFG 3 Barry Bonds 11.6 2001 36 SFG 4 Cal Ripken 11.3 1991 30 BAL 5 Mickey Mantle 11.1 1957 25 NYY 6 Mickey Mantle 11.0 1956 24 NYY 7 Willie Mays 10.9 1965 34 SFG 8 Joe Morgan 10.8 1975 31 CIN 9 Stan Musial 10.8 1948 27 STL 10 Mike Trout 10.7 2012 20 LAA 11 Willie Mays 10.7 1964 33 SFG 12 Robin Yount 10.4 1982 26 MIL 13 Barry Bonds 10.3 2004 39 SFG 14 Willie Mays 10.3 1954 23 NYG 15 Willie Mays 10.2 1963 32 SFG 16 Willie Mays 10.2 1962 31 SFG 17 Mickey Mantle 10.2 1961 29 NYY 18 Lou Boudreau 10.2 1948 30 CLE 19 Sammy Sosa 10.1 2001 32 CHC 20 Alex Rodriguez 10.1 2000 24 SEA 21 Carl Yastrzemski 10.0 1968 28 BOS 22 Willie Mays 10.0 1958 27 SFG
Jaret Wright's 2005 Cy Young Season: 20-3, 3.04 ERA
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10-03-12 12:04 PM #306
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Jeter has compiled 3.4 WAR so far this season, which is pretty darn good.
The difference between Trout and Miggy is almost as valuable as what Jeter has done for us over the replacement player (aka, basically Nunez) for the entire season.
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10-03-12 12:11 PM #307
- Join Date
- Jun 2005
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Willie Mays is on that list 6 times. He won 2 MVPs. In 1964 (a top 10 season all time prior to this year) he finished SIXTH in the MVP voting. And it wasn't as though the Giants were some last place team, they were 3 games out. ZERO 1st place votes. Knowing that I'm not sure why I'll be at all surprised that Cabrera wins.
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10-03-12 12:19 PM #308
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Per @fangraphs, Mike Trout (10.3 WAR) is more valuable than the Houston Astros (10.2 WAR).Baseball is life;
the rest is just details.
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10-03-12 12:26 PM #309
Re: 2012 MVP Race
That's pretty much every argument I've made the past few days to people asking me this question. It's disappointing just how many people think that Miggy is getting a raw deal here. He's obviously going to win and he doesn't ................ing deserve it.
Dat defense... dat sb/cs ratio... Trout is giving me a massive baseball chub this year. Even if we can pretend that Cabrera has been better offensively this season (hint: he hasn't been), the differences in baserunning and defense should easily eclipse any imaginary gap between their offensive value this year. Unfortunately, voters are still old and stupid, and the gaps in RBI and HRs along with the Tigers making the playoffs has already sealed the deal for the codgers and mental midgets who run this .................
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10-03-12 12:30 PM #310
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10-03-12 12:36 PM #311
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10-03-12 01:46 PM #312
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Even old school guys are having trouble overlooking Trout's insane 129 Rs scored.
That's a function of his speed and good hitters behind him but it's something old schoolers look at.
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10-03-12 01:52 PM #313
Re: 2012 MVP Race
I know who you mean, but Player A could be Cabrera, having a once-in-a-career season, winning the Triple Crown, as much as Trout with his WAR.
However, if you ignore SB and look at the stats 30 HR, 83 RBI, 129 Runs, .323 BA (Trout's numbers) then since 1901, 59 people, not including Trout, have had such seasons.
If you look at Cabrera's stats, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 109 R, .331 BA, then only 17 other people have had such seasons. And since integration, only 3. Todd Helton in 2001, Manny Ramirez in 1999 and Cabrera this year.Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's
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10-03-12 01:55 PM #314
- Join Date
- Apr 2012
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Right, but using only BA, HR, RBI, and R is a pretty myopic way to look at this. I'm not talking about listing players that have met specific arbitrary statistical marks, I'm talking about how infrequently a player is as good, on the whole, as Trout has been this year. Cabrera isn't having that kind of a season.
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10-03-12 01:59 PM #315
Re: 2012 MVP Race
Yes, if you remove the aspects of the sport that show that Trout is having a better season than Cabrera, then Cabrera is having a better season than Trout...
I have 0 losses this year. David Price has 5. If we only look at the area where I'm better, I'm having the better year.
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10-03-12 02:08 PM #316
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10-03-12 02:09 PM #317
Re: 2012 MVP Race
And neither of them won the MVP.
What happens if you add in Trout's 49 SB and Miggy's 4 SBs to your arbitraty set of stats?
For Miggy I think you get to throw out Ramirez (2 SB) and bring the list to just Helton (7 SB).
For Trout since integration, I'm guess the list is just him because Bonds didn't have a .323 AVE (only .301) when he went 30/50.Baseball is life;
the rest is just details.
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10-03-12 02:14 PM #318
- Join Date
- Jun 2005
Re: 2012 MVP Race
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10-03-12 02:16 PM #319
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10-03-12 02:26 PM #320
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10-03-12 07:34 PM #321
Re: 2012 MVP Race
I know this will piss everybody off, but what I learned from watching the afternoon games (Washington - Philly and Oakland - Texas), and from listening to the Yankees-Red Sox pregame on local Boston radio, is that broadcaster types seem unanimous in crowning Cabrera as the MVP.
These broadcasters aren't the actual MVP voters, of course, but I think it's reasonable to assume their opinions (which clearly aren't fully informed) have some correlation to what we'll see from the voters."Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah
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10-03-12 09:50 PM #322
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10-03-12 09:57 PM #323
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10-03-12 09:59 PM #324
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10-03-12 10:00 PM #325
Re: 2012 MVP Race
In case i didn't make myself clear enough in my initial post:
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