2012 Hot Stove/ Trade Rumors...

[R.V.47]

Not sure where the yankees are on Cole Hamels but I think they should go all out to get him, this group isnt getting any younger might as well go for it all this year. The price tag may be steep but it shouldnt scare them away, our prospects tend to be overrated anyway.

[Jax Teller]

If they are overrated as you claim then how can they possibly land Hamels? If they do get him, wouldn't that mean that they are actually highly thought of? Hamels isn't coming for a couple decent prospects mixed with scrubs.

[ArodEra]

I have to assume your breaking even analysis for this year is being based on their respective 2011 WARs, adding Robertson + Nova and comparing to Upton. If I'm wrong, the following may be moot, and I'll await your clarification.

If it is the methodology, it makes the big assumption Upton reverts back to that in the second half, doesn't account for Gardner's return, assume two pitchers returning from major injuries hit the ground running, and makes us reliant on a first year pitcher to avoid the wall in the second half.

But, even give all that, it ignores any Yankees specific context. In spring training, the Yankees are something ridiculous like 80+% to make the playoffs, and they're at about 86% now. Just using a metric that gives a cumulative value over time and adding them together doesn't make sense for this team. They're going to make the playoffs, so while guys like Eppley/Phelps/Rapada may have minor impacts in WAR over the course of a half season compared to a Robertson, there no way sending in Eppley/Rapada in to the 8th inning of a playoff game multiple times gives the Yankees a better chance to win. And this is coming from someone who views most relievers as crap who's successes and failures are largely due to SSS.

In a nutshell for this year, this will downgrade our playoff rotation and bullpen, with a potential marginal upgrade to our OF, assuming Gardner's return. It will also gut our farm system, and leave little chance for upgrading our pitching. I'm all for selling high on Nova and the like, but I think your proposal is overkill.

Excellent analysis. No way do I trade that proposed package of players for Upton.

[just-blaze]

Not sure where the yankees are on Cole Hamels but I think they should go all out to get him, this group isnt getting any younger might as well go for it all this year. The price tag may be steep but it shouldnt scare them away, our prospects tend to be overrated anyway.

Like Cano, Wang, Robertson, Hughes, AJ, IPK, Nova, Quintana, McAllister, etc.

[R.V.47]

Like Cano, Wang, Robertson, Hughes, AJ, IPK, Nova, Quintana, McAllister, etc.

No im talking about Banuelos and Betances are big prospects right now, if the Phillies asked for them in a trade for Hamels I think the yanks gotta do it.

[NerfBall55]

No im talking about Banuelos and Betances are big prospects right now, if the Phillies asked for them in a trade for Hamels I think the yanks gotta do it.

Agree in principle, but Betances is not a big prospect at all.

[Hitman23]

THIS is how you make solid arguments on an internet discussion forum.

I bet if Dr John looked hard enough he'd find a mistake in that post.

Seriously though, I think you present your argument how you need to and I think the more important part of internet discussion should be that there needs to be less people who toggle around trying to find thoughts they want to argue with. Not everyone has the ability to properly put into words their view in the right tone and when one thing is taken out of context generally things get out of hand. I think it's unfortunate. Before anyone jumps down anyone else's throat you should at least dig a little to get that info before going all alpha poster on them. In my experience in the end people agree on more than they think they do however it gets lost in the argument after being presented incorrectly. Just my stupid opinion though. It's the nature of the beast.

[Jax Teller]

No im talking about Banuelos and Betances are big prospects right now, if the Phillies asked for them in a trade for Hamels I think the yanks gotta do it.

How are they overrated? Scouts throughout baseball think Betances is going to wind up in the pen, that's nothing new. Probably can't find a scout that think he's going to be an ace or even a solid mid-rotation starter. Banuelos is hurt now, but overall he's been great since he's been signed, with the stuff to match.

If you want to deal Banuelos+ for Hamels, that's one thing. But to pretend like he is not a stud prospect is just wrong.

[JL25and3]

I bet if Dr John looked hard enough he'd find a mistake in that post.

Had it been your post, yes, I would have. But then, had it been your post, there would have been a mistake in it.

[R.V.47]

How are they overrated? Scouts throughout baseball think Betances is going to wind up in the pen, that's nothing new. Probably can't find a scout that think he's going to be an ace or even a solid mid-rotation starter. Banuelos is hurt now, but overall he's been great since he's been signed, with the stuff to match.

If you want to deal Banuelos+ for Hamels, that's one thing. But to pretend like he is not a stud prospect is just wrong.

Hes the best we have right now but his control problems have to be worked out when he comes off the DL. If the Phillies want him as a centerpiece in a deal then I say trade him.

My point is even if its just a rental the yankees owe it to their aging lineup to go all in this year. And to me that means going out and getting the best pitcher available in a trade even if its at a steep cost.

[rajah]

If by the "Yankees," you mean the ownership, they owe absolutely nothing to their "aging roster" other than payment of their huge contracts.

Its not rocket science and I thought most experienced fans understood it:

The ownership wants to win this year, but they also understand that the success of the franchise requires them continuing to put playoff teams on the field in future years. They want to do that with a payroll that allows them to make money. Especially with the new CBA and luxury tax, this requires there be a mix of cheap salary-restricted young players with older free agents in future years. This requires not trading away all of the cream of your farm system for a very, very expensive free agent to be. (Trading your best chip for another cost-controlled player is quite different.)

Ownership wants a team that can win this year, but to sell tickets, they don't need to maximize the chances of doing so by trading away a cost-efficient chance to win in future years. And remember, getting Hamels would increase the chances of winning this year, but it would not ensure it. No players can ensure that in baseball. Its not like adding LeBron to a very good NBA team.

So, Cashman would love to have Hamels at a cost that does not compromise the farm system, but not at the price the Phillies are demanding.

[NerfBall55]

I bet if Dr John looked hard enough he'd find a mistake in that post.

Seriously though, I think you present your argument how you need to and I think the more important part of internet discussion should be that there needs to be less people who toggle around trying to find thoughts they want to argue with. Not everyone has the ability to properly put into words their view in the right tone and when one thing is taken out of context generally things get out of hand. I think it's unfortunate. Before anyone jumps down anyone else's throat you should at least dig a little to get that info before going all alpha poster on them. In my experience in the end people agree on more than they think they do however it gets lost in the argument after being presented incorrectly. Just my stupid opinion though. It's the nature of the beast.

Fess up - you're not really a hitman.

[Hitman23]

Fess up - you're not really a hitman.

I'm a total poser.

[NerfBall55]

I'm a total poser.

lol

[RenoHightower]

Like Cano, Wang, Robertson, Hughes, AJ, IPK, Nova, Quintana, McAllister, etc.

You accidentally wrote Hughes' name in there.

[R.V.47]

If by the "Yankees," you mean the ownership, they owe absolutely nothing to their "aging roster" other than payment of their huge contracts.

Its not rocket science and I thought most experienced fans understood it:

The ownership wants to win this year, but they also understand that the success of the franchise requires them continuing to put playoff teams on the field in future years. They want to do that with a payroll that allows them to make money. Especially with the new CBA and luxury tax, this requires there be a mix of cheap salary-restricted young players with older free agents in future years. This requires not trading away all of the cream of your farm system for a very, very expensive free agent to be. (Trading your best chip for another cost-controlled player is quite different.)

Ownership wants a team that can win this year, but to sell tickets, they don't need to maximize the chances of doing so by trading away a cost-efficient chance to win in future years. And remember, getting Hamels would increase the chances of winning this year, but it would not ensure it. No players can ensure that in baseball. Its not like adding LeBron to a very good NBA team.

So, Cashman would love to have Hamels at a cost that does not compromise the farm system, but not at the price the Phillies are demanding.

This is all well and good but the way I look at it the yankees are screwed either way the next couple of years with these contracts anyway so why not go for it while theres still a crack open in the championship window. Just look at the team theyve scored the fewest runs for a yankee team in the first half since 1992. A-Rod is in decline, Tex is in decline, Jeter is up and down but not what he was even a few years ago, even CC looks to have lost a tick on his fastball. Its a huge credit to this team that theyve been able to win with all this going on this year plus with no Rivera and no Gardner.

Theyve been able to hold it together this year and get on a great run but I think they need one more piece in the rotation to get past Texas in the playoffs and that should be the best pitcher available Cole Hamels. Im not even advocating signing Hamels long term Im fine with him as a rental.

And speaking of Texas they are the favorite to land him at the moment, so we can talk all we want about CBA agreements and stuff like that but Im sure if Texas pulls off the deal Ill be reading 5 pages of burn Cashman at the stake posts for allowing Hamels to go to our best copetitor in the AL.

[just-blaze]

You accidentally wrote Hughes' name in there.

Funny.

[Cool Papa B.]

I was talking to a Yankees fan on Twitter about Cole Hamels possibly becoming a Yankee & he stated that he didn't want a pitcher who threw mostly fastballs & change ups. What do you guys think?

CC Sabathia throws a lot of fastballs & changeups.

[tim2nyy]

Cole Hamels spoke with CSNPhilly.com's Leslie Gudel about his current status with the Phillies and his future beyond this season as the trade deadline quickly approaches. Hamels said while he would be happy to sign a long-term deal with the Phillies, he's curious to explore free agency and potentially end up with a team on the West Coast like the Dodgers.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/0...ie-manuel.html

Not sure we trade for Hamels or sign him in the offseason now.

[teknetic]

Olney:

Talked to more officials today who believe that if the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, the favorite will be the Rangers.

More reasons to hate all things Texas.

[philleotardo]

It wouldn't surprise me. They could put together the best package. It's just a matter of if Amaro is savvy enough to insist on the right pieces. I personally don't think he is.

[35Knucklecurve]

According to Buster Olney's "inside info", Hamels does not get along with the coaches, manager and some of his teammates. That may be just a situation where he is now, but I tend to include that sort of stuff whenever I consider who may or may not be a good fit. It apparently doesn't affect his performance for the most part, but you know how everything gets magnified 10 times over when you play in NY.

[JOBA RULES]

Not sure where the yankees are on Cole Hamels but I think they should go all out to get him, this group isnt getting any younger might as well go for it all this year. The price tag may be steep but it shouldnt scare them away, our prospects tend to be overrated anyway.

Yanks grab Hamels their rotation going into the postseason will be very very strong....

[Cool Papa B.]

According to Buster Olney's "inside info", Hamels does not get along with the coaches, manager and some of his teammates. That may be just a situation where he is now, but I tend to include that sort of stuff whenever I consider who may or may not be a good fit. It apparently doesn't affect his performance for the most part, but you know how everything gets magnified 10 times over when you play in NY.

It's funny because i remember during the 2009 WS one of Hamels teammates called him out. I believe he said Hamels was soft, or something like that.

[rajah]

This is all well and good but the way I look at it the yankees are screwed either way the next couple of years with these contracts anyway so why not go for it while theres still a crack open in the championship window. Just look at the team theyve scored the fewest runs for a yankee team in the first half since 1992. A-Rod is in decline, Tex is in decline, Jeter is up and down but not what he was even a few years ago, even CC looks to have lost a tick on his fastball. Its a huge credit to this team that theyve been able to win with all this going on this year plus with no Rivera and no Gardner.

Theyve been able to hold it together this year and get on a great run but I think they need one more piece in the rotation to get past Texas in the playoffs and that should be the best pitcher available Cole Hamels. Im not even advocating signing Hamels long term Im fine with him as a rental.

And speaking of Texas they are the favorite to land him at the moment, so we can talk all we want about CBA agreements and stuff like that but Im sure if Texas pulls off the deal Ill be reading 5 pages of burn Cashman at the stake posts for allowing Hamels to go to our best copetitor in the AL.

Obviously the Yankees' chances of winning in the playoffs would improve with the acquisition of Hamels and they would improve even more if that acquisition was what kept him from the Rangers. But that doesn't mean Cashman will or should empty the farm system to get him. The Phillies are going to put a premium on getting major league ready talent in return. They need to return to competitiveness as soon as possible and need to placate a demanding fan base. The Yankees, as you must know, do not have much major league ready talent to trade at AAA or even AA. And they can't trade a cost-contolled pitcher like Nova.

So, how can the Yankees hope to outbid the Rangers except by completely gutting the farm system by sending most of their lower level talent in a multiple player deal? Even that would probably not get it done.

I think you and other folks better forget about getting Hamels. It ain't happening.

But you are way too pessimistic about not being albe to get past Texas, even with Hamels. Baseball is not that predictable. The current Yankee team, especially if full-handed and healthy, and with a few hot bats, can beat any other team.

You also are too pessimistic about 2013 and 2014. I'm not going to debate it now, but the Yankee ownership and front office will put out competitive teams with a chance to win, even if a lower chance than some years.

Let's enjoy the current success and not expect a further boost from Hamels that we are not going to get.