2012 Hot Stove/ Trade Rumors...

[sweet_lou_14]

He's not a good fielder, but when was the last time he butcher a play?

There was one really bad misplay in RF in April, and maybe one other in LF early on, but I agree it's been a while since he's done anything truly awful out there.

[THEBOSS84]

Actually I didn't get the idea from an article - that's honestly coincidence. And also honestly I'd completely overlooked the attractiveness about the AAV. So his contract would become a burden to the Rockies, but actually remain attractive to the Yankees even as he approaches that $20MM figure at least in terms of lux tax impact.

I'd also back up the truck for him.

I believe you that you didn't see the article, kinda nuts that it was published yesterday.

I'd give up a boatload for Cargo. Sell high on Austin and Mason Williams++. Have our OF of Gardner, Cargo and Grandy (sign him to an extension) for the next 5-8 years. Call it a day.

[aeromac76]

Obviously, you're right about Thome, but I think you overrate Ibanez's outfield play. You can put him out there, which makes him an improvement over Thome, but he is a butcher.

He's made every routine play. And unless I am blanking, I don't recall him messing anything up to cost us a game. So that still gives him some value over Thome, and that extra value is a need until Gardner can come back.

[False1]

I believe you that you didn't see the article, kinda nuts that it was published yesterday.

I'd give up a boatload for Cargo. Sell high on Austin and Mason Williams++. Have our OF of Gardner, Cargo and Grandy (sign him to an extension) for the next 5-8 years. Call it a day.

Yeah, I started thinking about OF options with Swisher's pending FA and the chatter about wanting to bring Melky back... at first blush there's no reason for the Rockies to consider trading him, it was in looking at the structure of his deal that it seemed like they signed him to that deal specifically to get maximum value out of the front end of the deal and then trade him towards the end while he was expensive but still in his prime. I completely whiffed on the AAV angle, which makes it attractive specifically to the Yankees. There's no way they're replacing Swisher (or probably even re-signing him) at an $11MM AAV.

Having Gonzalez at $11MM AAV impact to lux tax, and if Pineda returns to form by '14... that would go a long way towards getting to $189MM while fielding a very competitive team and getting younger simultaneously.

[RenoHightower]

How do park factors influence this? His ability to draw walks is probably not due to Coors. His BA might get a bump in Coors but Im sure with his power he won't take that big a hit in NYS.

That's the point; he doesn't walk much, and Coors has a huge impact on batting averages. That's why there is a 70 point different in his OBP from home to road for his career.

I understand the red flag that alot of people have raised, but this guy is a true 5 tool superstar who is just entering his prime.

Is he? The evidence suggests that, if he were traded to a more neutral park, he wouldn't have nearly as much success.

Also I wonder about his road splits. This is a guy who has had 300 PA of his road splits in ATT, Petco and Dodger Stadium. Anyone would take a hit in those parks.

AT&T and Petco are both definitely pitcher's parks, but Dodger Stadium is basically neutral, and Chase Field is definitely a hitter's park.

[Hitman23]

I was just going to say the same thing.

Here is his career Coors line .352/.409/.666/1.075

His line outside of Coors is not nearly so rosy.

Yeah but he's not too shabby away either. .281/.339/.509/.848

Still a .800+ ops guy which is good. league avg last year was just around .700. He's obviously made for that park, but he's nothing to sneeze at. He's dangerous all the time.

I'm a fan because 81 games a year he is a beast for me in roto. The other 81 games are just gravy, and there is a good amount of it!

[Hitman23]

Actually looking at his spray chart I think he would do well in NYS.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/...arlos-gonzalez

[fredgmuggs]

Actually looking at his spray chart I think he would do well in NYS.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/...arlos-gonzalez

If you're a lefty batter at Yankee stadium you forget spray charts and learn how to hook the ball into the lower rightfield seats down the foul line.

[Hitman23]

touche....

[just-blaze]

That's the point; he doesn't walk much, and Coors has a huge impact on batting averages. That's why there is a 70 point different in his OBP from home to road for his career.

Right, and Im arguing that NYS would give him a bump (not as good as Coors) as well. Not to mention he would be trading in the Canyons of the NL West for the hitter friendly parks of the AL East sans Tropicana.

Is he? The evidence suggests that, if he were traded to a more neutral park, he wouldn't have nearly as much success.

I can't argue with that, although he is entering his prime where he should be having his best statistical seasons, so that could temper that as well. He would have success either way IMO, just not 1100 OPS success.

AT&T and Petco are both definitely pitcher's parks, but Dodger Stadium is basically neutral, and Chase Field is definitely a hitter's park.

Dodger Stadium is a pitcher's park. Not as much as the other two, but nonetheless a pitcher's park. And for the 3 he has had 292 PA v. 96 in Chase. It has affected the road splits moreso.

[RenoHightower]

Right, and Im arguing that NYS would give him a bump (not as good as Coors) as well. Not to mention he would be trading in the Canyons of the NL West for the hitter friendly parks of the AL East sans Tropicana.

Does YS even have a significant effect on batting average? I think you're failing to realize what a huge impact Coors has across all offensive stats.

[just-blaze]

Does YS even have a significant effect on batting average? I think you're failing to realize what a huge impact Coors has across all offensive stats.

If Im failing to realize the huge impact Coors has on offensive stats, then you are failing to realize that his road/home splits of this year are more indicative of what to expect from him for the next 3-4 years than his short history suggests, not to mention the jump he would get from the NL West to AL East.

[RenoHightower]

If Im failing to realize the huge impact Coors has on offensive stats, then you are failing to realize that his road/home splits of this year are more indicative of what to expect from him for the next 3-4 years than his short history suggests,

I honestly have no idea what this means.

not to mention the jump he would get from the NL West to AL East.

I'm not buying this. He'd face much better pitching in the AL East than in the NL West.

[THEBOSS84]

Does YS even have a significant effect on batting average? I think you're failing to realize what a huge impact Coors has across all offensive stats.

I said this before - didn't we have this exact conversation about Matt Holliday?

OPS+ as a Rockie - 131

OPS+ as a Cardinal - 150

Some players just hit better at home because they are more comfortable at "home". And I do think the pitcher's park in the NL West argument carries weight.

[MoVaughnEatsAlot]

Idiots on Philly radio talking about Cliff Lee getting traded to the Yankees this morning. So I called up and said "For who exactly are we trading Cliff Lee for and why?" They paused and answered, "Robinson Cano, because the Yankees have always wanted Lee", I laughed at them and called them insane... and reminded them that trading the best 2nd baseman in baseball is really not worth a 34 year old pitcher making $25 million a year, especially when we have a good staff right now as is. I said to them that unless they are just looking to move Lee for salary relief, they're not getting anything significant from us, and certainly no one really major league ready. They said I was wrong on all of that

[teknetic]

I said this before - didn't we have this exact conversation about Matt Holliday?

OPS+ as a Rockie - 131

OPS+ as a Cardinal - 150

Some players just hit better at home because they are more comfortable at "home". And I do think the pitcher's park in the NL West argument carries weight.

I disagree. I was fully on board with getting Holliday because his home/road splits weren't nearly as drastic as CarGo's.

Road OPS:

2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .892

..and there was also the fact that he could draw walks and play plus defense. Gonzalez is far from bad, but depending on your definition of "backing up the truck" (Sanchez/Banuelos ++?) I'd stay away.

[RenoHightower]

I said this before - didn't we have this exact conversation about Matt Holliday?

OPS+ as a Rockie - 131

OPS+ as a Cardinal - 150

Some players just hit better at home because they are more comfortable at "home". And I do think the pitcher's park in the NL West argument carries weight.

Holliday's last season with Colorado, he hit .308/.405/.486 on the road, and his home OPS was about .100 points higher than his road OPS. Gonzalez is not a good OBP player outside of Coors (.339 on the road this year, .317 last year, .322 in 2010), and trading for him (and paying him) as though he's a star player is a mistake, because he isn't.

[firemanx]

hughes i would do, but not williams maybe hughes & ravel santana

[just-blaze]

I honestly have no idea what this means.

I think you are overvaluing his split while discounting other factors.

I'm not buying this. He'd face much better pitching in the AL East than in the NL West.

No he wouldn't.

[just-blaze]

Holliday's last season with Colorado, he hit .308/.405/.486 on the road, and his home OPS was about .100 points higher than his road OPS. Gonzalez is not a good OBP player outside of Coors (.339 on the road this year, .317 last year, .322 in 2010), and trading for him (and paying him) as though he's a star player is a mistake, because he isn't.

At age 28, Cargo is 26.

I bring this up because at age 24-26 Holliday's BB% was 7.1, 6.8, 7.1.

Cargo's BB% at the same age was 6.3, 8.9, 8.6.

[RenoHightower]

I think you are overvaluing his split while discounting other factors.

Which factors am I discounting? His age?

No he wouldn't.

The talent level in the AL East is higher than that in the NL West.

[just-blaze]

Which factors am I discounting? His age?

That and park factors. I think its a bit unfair to use such a large sample of home PAs vs. a combination of road PAs. You know its not quite the same to hit in Petco vs. Chase and yet they are lumped together as one road split.

Im not denying the Coors is an extreme hitters park that a good hitter can take advantage of, but Im not buying that if he is put into another home setting it would be an 840 OPS for him or worse. It's park dependent.

The talent level in the AL East is higher than that in the NL West.

Overall? Easily. SP wise? Its close.

[THEBOSS84]

I disagree. I was fully on board with getting Holliday because his home/road splits weren't nearly as drastic as CarGo's.

Road OPS:

2006: .819
2007: .860
2008: .892

..and there was also the fact that he could draw walks and play plus defense. Gonzalez is far from bad, but depending on your definition of "backing up the truck" (Sanchez/Banuelos ++?) I'd stay away.

I admit it's a SSS but, so far this year he is OPS'ing .847 on the road. It's hard to gauge how good his defense is, since he's all over the place on fangraphs.

I'd give up a lot for him.

[THEBOSS84]

Holliday's last season with Colorado, he hit .308/.405/.486 on the road, and his home OPS was about .100 points higher than his road OPS. Gonzalez is not a good OBP player outside of Coors (.339 on the road this year, .317 last year, .322 in 2010), and trading for him (and paying him) as though he's a star player is a mistake, because he isn't.

You guys are completely discounting what he does as home, as if it doesn't happen.

[RenoHightower]

You guys are completely discounting what he does as home, as if it doesn't happen.

As I said, I hate using just road splits, but his are so enormous that it's hard to gauge how much of his hitting ability would actually follow him out of Colorado. The fact is that he's a gamble, and I wouldn't want to pay a star's price for a guy who is a risk.