Michael Pineda Out for @012 With Labrum Tear

[Jace]

We traded away Jeter II. Montero is now the #1 catcher in Seattle now that Olivo is hurt. There is no reason to believe he wouldn't be spliting time with Martin just like Posada did with Girardi in 97.

This trade isn't bad. It's a disaster. It's the type of mistake that the Royals or Pirates make. We can just throw money at our mistakes.

This is either disingenous or you don't grasp the concept of a good trade that doesnt work out. As in, I'd make the trade again given the same opportunity. As in, you are playing poker and you play a hand to the point you are a 65% favorite to win, but you lose, yet it was still a good bet.

I guess its disingenous anyway, because Jeter is a Hall of Famer, and you called Montero "Jeter II".


From Buster Olney's column on 4/26:

1. At the time of the deal, the overwhelming majority of rival executives thought this was a great trade for the Yankees. Not a good trade, but a great trade. A lot of the same executives understood the rationale of the Mariners and liked Jesus Montero as a prospect, but they loved the Yankees' end of the trade.

...

The Yankees made a trade for an elite young pitcher based on all the information available to them, including full medical reports. Then he got hurt.

It happens.

The Mariners didn't cheat, the Yankees weren't idiots. It just didn't work out."

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/...ng-yankees-mlb


This was a smart trade. I know a lot of people don't like the injury risk of pitchers, but that mostly comes down to an anecdote battle. This was value for value, and the Yankees dealing their strength for their relative weakness.

I know its sexy to call things disasters, but arguing based on hindsight doesn't demonstrate a good thought process

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

Okay, in order to appease everyone who thinks this injury is Cashman's fault I say we stone him on the OYS site. That should make you all feel better. It's obviously the most productive way of moving on.

Hyperbole much? He traded for a young pitcher, young pitchers get hurt. The move was a risk that Cashman was willing to take and it did not pay off (yes I know, Pineda is injured not dead blah blah blah). The notion that the trade can't be second guessed is just as silly as the notion that Cashman should be fired solely based on the Pineda trade.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

This was a smart trade. I know a lot of people don't like the injury risk of pitchers, but that mostly comes down to an anecdote battle. This was value for value, and the Yankees dealing their strength for their relative weakness.

I know its sexy to call things disasters, but arguing based on hindsight doesn't demonstrate a good thought process

The hindsight talk is also getting a bit annoying. Perhaps some are rippin the trade just because Pineda got hurt, but many were openly angry about the risk Cashman took the entire time.

[Jace]

The hindsight talk is also getting a bit annoying. Perhaps some are rippin the trade just because Pineda got hurt, but many were openly angry about the risk Cashman took the entire time.

Haha, if you think the talk about hindsight is getting annoying, then imagine listening to the hindsight talk itself. Its absolutely part of peoples' reasoning.

As for risks, i hope they don't stop taking risks like this one. With the information they had at the time of the trade, I (and many others, including apparently the "overwhelming" majority of baseball people with better and closer information than us) thought it was a very good risk/reward move

[jcarey]

The hindsight talk is also getting a bit annoying. Perhaps some are rippin the trade just because Pineda got hurt, but many were openly angry about the risk Cashman took the entire time.

FWIW (probably not much), I remember your reservations about the trade at the time and thought they were reasonable, if not a little tainted by your familiarity with Montero. But you are not representatiive of the current horde of malcontents.

Still, the whole "young pitchers get hurt" is a little too strong. Injury risk is higher, but it's far from a given.

[awy]

pineda had a number of yellow flags. the whole sudden velo jump thing, slider heavy arsenal, early career injury nexus.

the thing that swinged me was campos, but the main course did not look appetizing. would not have traded montero for pineda straight up

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

FWIW (probably not much), I remember your reservations about the trade at the time and thought they were reasonable, if not a little tainted by your familiarity with Montero. But you are not representatiive of the current horde of malcontents.

Still, the whole "young pitchers get hurt" is a little too strong. Injury risk is higher, but it's far from a given.

I read that roughly 1 out of every 9 MLB pitchers get Tommy John surgery at some point in their career (to be fair thatfigure could be completely made up). I don't know the statistics for rotator cuff and labrum surgery, but add those in and narrow the field to pitchers under the age of 24, and I really don't think saying "young pitchers get hurt" is that strong of a statement at all.

[Jax Teller]

Why are people so certain that people's displeasure with what's happened is strictly a hindsight reaction?

[hellonewman]

Okay, in order to appease everyone who thinks this injury is Cashman's fault I say we stone him on the OYS site.

He certainly wouldn't be the first person to get stoned there.

[CalYankeeFan]

He certainly wouldn't be the first person to get stoned there.

ba-da-bump!

[Hitman23]

Haha, if you think the talk about hindsight is getting annoying, then imagine listening to the hindsight talk itself. Its absolutely part of peoples' reasoning.

As for risks, i hope they don't stop taking risks like this one. With the information they had at the time of the trade, I (and many others, including apparently the "overwhelming" majority of baseball people with better and closer information than us) thought it was a very good risk/reward move

ding-ding-ding-ding we have a winner!

[Hitman23]

Hyperbole much? He traded for a young pitcher, young pitchers get hurt. The move was a risk that Cashman was willing to take and it did not pay off (yes I know, Pineda is injured not dead blah blah blah). The notion that the trade can't be second guessed is just as silly as the notion that Cashman should be fired solely based on the Pineda trade.

Keep in mind I'm not basing my thoughts solely on the posts on this site. I listen to the FAN and ESPN Radio a lot and the callers (and even some of the sports talk guys) are ripping Cashman apart for his stupidity with this trade. And the notion of him being fired is thrown in there.

So it's kind of me venting in my way of venting which is on this board since I'm not going to call into a radio station to try to get a word in.

I have no issue with the second guessing. However in the end I'm all for the Yankees having young, cheap, talented pitching. If it takes a bit for him to come back and be what he was maybe we'll have a few of the elite guys that are waiting to crack the rotation (assuming they stay here and are properly handled) and I can be proud of a great rotation for years instead of looking at a staff being put together with other teams junk hoping to catch lightning in a bottle like last year. I don;t know if Hughes is ever going to figure it out. I think Nova is now what he will ever be. Which is fine. CC is not getting younger, Pettitte is going to have, what a year or two maybe? Kuroda I like but same as CC. I think Garcia's contributions are done.

I think in the end the trade will benefit the Yankees even with the lost year we have to deal with now. Especially for a player that would have been nothing but a part time DH for who knows how long. Tex, Jeter and ARod need to DH now and then. TO have a 4th is just an extra piece we could turn into something we need. Which is exactly what Cashman did.

However, had I know they were available I would have jumped on Cahill or Fister last year. Cahill especially.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

Part time DH? Come on, man. Is Brett Gardner a part time LF because Andruw Jones plays there sometimes?

The beef is, we were lead to believe that Montero would be traded for elite pitching or not be traded. They traded him for a lottery ticket.

I think you are optimistic. He's having labrum surgery, not Tommy John. And Jesus is catching.

[YankeePride1967]

Right now it's not looking like a good trade (to put it mildly) but no one knows either way what Pineda will turn out to be. It's great to try to bring up other pitchers who have had the same surgery but the only one that is relavent is Pineda's situation. The good news is that it's being done arthroscopically which means it's a less serious situation than it could be had they had to go right in. It's going to be up to how hard Pineda works to come back that will most determine what kind of pitcher he will be starting in 2013 and going forward.

[Hitman23]

Part time DH? Come on, man. Is Brett Gardner a part time LF because Andruw Jones plays there sometimes?

The beef is, we were lead to believe that Montero would be traded for elite pitching or not be traded. They traded him for a lottery ticket.

I think you are optimistic. He's having labrum surgery, not Tommy John. And Jesus is catching.

Where exactly in the lineup do you think Montero would have been? Do you think he would have been catching? The M's have him catching because they have to. The Yankees don't. He'd a be a DH. But what do you do with ARod, Tex, and Jeter once a week? Sit them entirely? He was a DH at best, and unless he was a beast would have been part time.

Obviously my opinion and all speculation, but looking at the circumstances I think I'm right.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

Where exactly in the lineup do you think Montero would have been? Do you think he would have been catching? The M's have him catching because they have to. The Yankees don't. He'd a be a DH. But what do you do with ARod, Tex, and Jeter once a week? Sit them entirely? He was a DH at best, and unless he was a beast would have been part time.

Obviously my opinion and all speculation, but looking at the circumstances I think I'm right.

Yes, Tex and Jeter can get days off instead of DHing. What Jeter is doing right now is awesome, so him DHing is working out, but it was far from expected. Tex is not old, not an elite hitter, has had poor LH splits, and is only a 1Bman. What does he need to DH for? Ideally Montero is a DH who catches once a week.

Again, not against trading Montero or against trading Montero for pitching, but for such a young pitcher with so few innings when you turned down Lee for Montero and Nunez? Wasn't crazy about it.

[YankeePride1967]

Where exactly in the lineup do you think Montero would have been? Do you think he would have been catching? The M's have him catching because they have to. The Yankees don't. He'd a be a DH. But what do you do with ARod, Tex, and Jeter once a week? Sit them entirely? He was a DH at best, and unless he was a beast would have been part time.

Obviously my opinion and all speculation, but looking at the circumstances I think I'm right.

I think this year he would be the primary DH with A-Rod and Jeter getting an occasional break but not as often as now. Going forward what position he would play would depend on how well he can catch which appears to be his one weakness. I for one haven't given up on Pineda being a top of the rotation pitcher though labrum surgery certainly isn't a great way to start off his Yankee career.

[jcarey]

I read that roughly 1 out of every 9 MLB pitchers get Tommy John surgery at some point in their career (to be fair thatfigure could be completely made up). I don't know the statistics for rotator cuff and labrum surgery, but add those in and narrow the field to pitchers under the age of 24, and I really don't think saying "young pitchers get hurt" is that strong of a statement at all.

I agree with awy about the high slider usage, and the injury implications there. But you were concerned because a touch over 10% of pitchers get TJS "at some point"? And really, TJS is not that big of a deal anymore. I even thought TJS was a possibility in the future for Pineda. But the labrum tear is not something that, realistically speaking, anyone should have considered a probability.

[BennyTheJetRodriguez]

I agree with awy about the high slider usage, and the injury implications there. But you were concerned because a touch over 10% of pitchers get TJS "at some point"? And really, TJS is not that big of a deal anymore. I even thought TJS was a possibility in the future for Pineda. But the labrum tear is not something that, realistically speaking, anyone should have considered a probability.

Missing a year before you pitch again and a year and a half before you are back to normal (if you get back to normal) is significant to me when you are trading your best prospect in years. Labrum surgery isn't probable, but its possible, and normally career altering, though nobody here wants to talk about that. The probability of a 21-22 year old pitcher getting hurt, never developing a third pitch, or randomly starting to suck is high enough to turn down for a guy with Cliff Lee value.

[jcarey]

Yes, Tex and Jeter can get days off instead of DHing. What Jeter is doing right now is awesome, so him DHing is working out, but it was far from expected. Tex is not old, not an elite hitter, has had poor LH splits, and is only a 1Bman. What does he need to DH for? Ideally Montero is a DH who catches once a week.

It was expected that A-Rod would DH a lot. Are you going to ignore that? The hitting value Montero was likely to provide over our other DH options wasn't ever going to be that great - at least not in the first few years. And I don't know what you expected Montero to hit like out of the gate, but what he's doing now is only a bit under what I expected. He'll get better, but I don't see him hitting to All-Star levels this first year (though I have no doubt we'll see flashes). If we were DH'ing Montero now, he'd actually be hurting the team because we've gotten pretty good production out of that spot.

Again, not against trading Montero or against trading Montero for pitching, but for such a young pitcher with so few innings when you turned down Lee for Montero and Nunez? Wasn't crazy about it.

Are you sure? This actually does seem revisionist. They turned down a half season of Lee for Montero and Nunez. You actually think that was a better deal? Please. And Lee was just as much an injury risk as Pineda - abdominal/oblique injuries tend to crop up again, and we're seeing that right now with him.

Part time DH? Come on, man. Is Brett Gardner a part time LF because Andruw Jones plays there sometimes?

Yes, Brett Gardner would be considered a de facto part time LF if we had another All-Star-caliber player competing with him for playing time at that position. I mean, right now he's a part-time CFer because we have Granderson.

A-Rod, Jeter, Tex would all be vying for DH starts with Montero. Unless he absolutely lit the world on fire, he would be a part-time DH on this team, at least for a few years.

The beef is, we were lead to believe that Montero would be traded for elite pitching or not be traded. They traded him for a lottery ticket.

Pineda was an elite pitcher. Don't confuse injury risks with performance issues. The stuff and makeup can't really be doubted. Do you consider Strasburg a lottery ticket?

I think you are optimistic. He's having labrum surgery, not Tommy John. And Jesus is catching.

And yet TJS was the surgery that you mentioned being so worried about a few posts above.

[jcarey]

Missing a year before you pitch again and a year and a half before you are back to normal (if you get back to normal) is significant to me when you are trading your best prospect in years. Labrum surgery isn't probable, but its possible, and normally career altering, though nobody here wants to talk about that. The probability of a 21-22 year old pitcher getting hurt, never developing a third pitch, or randomly starting to suck is high enough to turn down for a guy with Cliff Lee value.

Montero getting knifed in the clubhouse by a jealous Miguel Olivo is possible. But more probable than that is Montero getting injured a la Posey or Santana. And even more probable is an injury sustained because of his large frame and the normal rigors of crouching in the catcher position, like Joe Mauer.

Of course, the Mariners can limit his catching to avoid those issues, but then his value takes quite a hit, doesn't it?

[YankeePride1967]

if the Yankees were given a window to sign Lee long term, that is a deal I probably would have made. But without it no. Not trading a top prospect for two months of Cliff Lee.

[Axon]

This is either disingenous or you don't grasp the concept of a good trade that doesnt work out. As in, I'd make the trade again given the same opportunity. As in, you are playing poker and you play a hand to the point you are a 65% favorite to win, but you lose, yet it was still a good bet.

I guess its disingenous anyway, because Jeter is a Hall of Famer, and you called Montero "Jeter II".


From Buster Olney's column on 4/26:



http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/...ng-yankees-mlb


This was a smart trade. I know a lot of people don't like the injury risk of pitchers, but that mostly comes down to an anecdote battle. This was value for value, and the Yankees dealing their strength for their relative weakness.

I know its sexy to call things disasters, but arguing based on hindsight doesn't demonstrate a good thought process

Bottom line, if you insert Montero's stats and talent into a player named "Douchebag McGee," no one cries about this trade. Or at least not nearly as much. But since they traded the insanely hyped Montero, people are going to overreact. We totally fetishize our minor league guys. He's a nice bat, but he's not Cabrera and he's half a player.

[jcarey]

if the Yankees were given a window to sign Lee long term, that is a deal I probably would have made. But without it no. Not trading a top prospect for two months of Cliff Lee.

I think I would have as well. I'd be pissed if I was a Rangers fan - not that Smoak has done anything special.

[Hitman23]

Lee was obviously not coming here, he proved that by turning down a monster deal. Montero would have been wasted on a trade for Lee unless a guaranteed contract came after. Which would have been pricey and the Yanks are trimming. I for one agree with the better option being the young, cheap pitcher who has tremendous upside. In a couple of years we should have a significantly dominant rotation if things pan out as they should. This is a good road to take. In my opinion anyway.