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  1. #376
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    terrible start by Nova, gave him a 5 run lead and couldnt hold it
    The real reason why the Yankees keep winning is cause the other team can't stop staring at the damn pinstripes

  2. #377

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    Lee's having an unimpressive year (not only the 1 win) and I can't stomach him or his wife. Thankfully the Yanks weren't stupid enough to go for round 3.
    Without looking at all his starts, I would guess that if he was on the Yankees and had the same outings, he would have 8-10 wins.

  3. #378

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The_Man_With_No_Plan View Post
    Without looking at all his starts, I would guess that if he was on the Yankees and had the same outings, he would have 8-10 wins.
    After last night, when he pitched a good game, he raised his ERA+ to 108.

    By comparison,

    CC - 120
    Kuroda - 131
    Hughes - 105
    Nova - 95
    Pettitte - 134
    Garcia - 84

    No question he would make the rotation better, but I'm not sure the amount of improvement would justify what we would have to give up to get him.
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  4. #379
    time of my life ... ajra21's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Well that second inning certainly made a difference to Nova. Not worried about him. He's doing pretty much what most people expected he'd do during his second year in the majors.
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  5. #380

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    .848 OPS against him this year. They can't let him continue to get crushed.

  6. #381
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Carsten Charles View Post
    .848 OPS against him this year. They can't let him continue to get crushed.
    Its pretty crazy. Opposing teams are like Mark Teixeira's 1-9 against Nova. I can't remember seeing someone getting hit so hard so consistently as this dude. Too bad they couldn't land Dempster...his presence would be looking pretty damn good right now with Pettitte suffering set-backs and Nova just suffering.

  7. #382

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by YESSIR! View Post
    Its pretty crazy. Opposing teams are like Mark Teixeira's 1-9 against Nova. I can't remember seeing someone getting hit so hard so consistently as this dude. Too bad they couldn't land Dempster...his presence would be looking pretty damn good right now with Pettitte suffering set-backs and Nova just suffering.
    I'm not so sure Dempster was the answer. It would be interesting to see what happens if he doesn't adjust to the AL with the Rangers pitching injuries and Darvish struggling now.
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  8. #383
    The gerbil lives Zimmers' Helmet's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    I believe Nova's increased K rate has actually been his downfall. Seems like he's over-challenging hitters (and getting beat) where last year he was more effective pitching to contact in key situations.
    "Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821)

  9. #384

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmers' Helmet View Post
    I believe Nova's increased K rate has actually been his downfall. Seems like he's over-challenging hitters (and getting beat) where last year he was more effective pitching to contact in key situations.
    Interesting theory.

    I think the talent is there, and he has a pitching coach capable of suggesting the right adjustments. The only thing that worries me -- and trust me, this is a kid whose makeup I really like overall -- is that he might be too stubborn to listen.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  10. #385

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmers' Helmet View Post
    I believe Nova's increased K rate has actually been his downfall. Seems like he's over-challenging hitters (and getting beat) where last year he was more effective pitching to contact in key situations.
    That kind of fits with his (seemingly) sudden arrogance or overconfidence or whatever you want to call it.
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  11. #386

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Something I've been saying for awhile.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  12. #387
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Coffee View Post
    That kind of fits with his (seemingly) sudden arrogance or overconfidence or whatever you want to call it.
    He came back so strong after getting sent down last year... I kind of wonder if he needs a kick like that.
    "Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee

  13. #388
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Coffee View Post
    That kind of fits with his (seemingly) sudden arrogance or overconfidence or whatever you want to call it.
    Nova has always had that attitude, even when in the minors... chad Jennings tells a story on his blog about when he covered nova in AAA and even then, after a bad start, he'd tip us hat to the opposition and maintain his air of superiority... Very Clemens-like

    When he's going well, it just comes off as him being badass... But when he's struggling, he honestly just sounds like a dumbass
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  14. #389
    Better than you teknetic's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Zimmers' Helmet View Post
    I believe Nova's increased K rate has actually been his downfall. Seems like he's over-challenging hitters (and getting beat) where last year he was more effective pitching to contact in key situations.
    Yea, he's only throwing his fastball 54% (61% last year) of the time..which seems pretty damn low for a guy who throws as hard (92.7) as he does. I don't know if they track this sort of thing, but I'd imagine that's not something you should be doing.

  15. #390
    time of my life ... ajra21's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Nova doesn't concern me at all. He is what he is: a good mid-rotation guy who should throw enough innings whilst flashing dominating stuff every now and again - and four times a year he frustrate the hell out of people. He isn't CC but he shouldn't be sent to the minors like the guy sitting behind me at the game suggested.
    Bring tea for the Tillerman; Steak for the son; Wine for the woman
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  16. #391

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ajra21 View Post
    Nova doesn't concern me at all. He is what he is: a good mid-rotation guy who should throw enough innings whilst flashing dominating stuff every now and again - and four times a year he frustrate the hell out of people. He isn't CC but he shouldn't be sent to the minors like the guy sitting behind me at the game suggested.
    An .848 OPS against is not even close to being a good mid-rotation guy. For reference, John Lackey's OPS against last year was .852. Nova has been terrible this year. He's getting lucky stranding a ton of runners on base.

  17. #392

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    I don't worry about him. He's a young pitcher. It's part of the growing pains. Especially because his flashes of dominance are really good.
    Thank you for making me calm today, Brett Gardner

  18. #393

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Carsten Charles View Post
    An .848 OPS against is not even close to being a good mid-rotation guy. For reference, John Lackey's OPS against last year was .852. Nova has been terrible this year. He's getting lucky stranding a ton of runners on base.
    Nova has always had a pretty high strand rate, probably because he has both ground ball and strikeout ability. It's really not that much higher than someone like CC, for example. His HR/FB rate is way too high, and should come down, which would bring down his OPS-against.

    His fastball has been terrible this year (.951 OPS on it??), though I'm not sure why. My guess is he's elevating it a bit, which is leading to more fly balls, more home runs, fewer double plays, and more runs scored. I haven't seen many of his starts though.

    His xFIP is still 3.95 and SIERRA likes him as well. He's either getting UNlucky or he's fallen into some bad habits (or a bad approach as ZH posits) that should be correctable. Like Lou said, the talent hasn't disappeared.

    Edited to say that people were calling for Hughes's removal from the rotation, but his underlying numbers suggested the results would improve, and they did. Nova actually has more sustained success, making me optimistic that what's going on is either a fluke, growing pains, or a minor flaw in technique or approach.


  19. #394
    Pinpoint False1's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Carsten Charles View Post
    An .848 OPS against is not even close to being a good mid-rotation guy. For reference, John Lackey's OPS against last year was .852. Nova has been terrible this year. He's getting lucky stranding a ton of runners on base.
    either that, or he's unlucky with folks getting on base to begin with. He has the 11th highest Babip against in all MLB, and also the 11th highest HR/FB rate in all MLB.

    I generally discount NYYF psychology (except JL's anyway) but perhaps there is something to this lack of focus talk.

    His BABIP against (which luck has at least a part to play) with no one on is .351 (high). Then with runners on it is .298 (average) and with RISP it is .257 (low).
    http://http://yanksgoyard.com/2012/08/01/its-time-to-look-beyond-ivan-novas-smoke-and-mirrors-act/

    Some interesting stuff in there, but if you're going to argue he's "lucky" with men on, you have to at least consider he may be "unlucky" with bases empty. Or perhaps he does in fact gain focus and bear down situationally? Who knows.

    My guess is he's adjusting his approach and will have inconsistent results, but if he can retain the K rates and get back to reasonable Babip and hr/fb he'll enjoy much success.

  20. #395

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by False1 View Post
    either that, or he's unlucky with folks getting on base to begin with. He has the 11th highest Babip against in all MLB, and also the 11th highest HR/FB rate in all MLB.

    I generally discount NYYF psychology (except JL's anyway) but perhaps there is something to this lack of focus talk.



    http://http://yanksgoyard.com/2012/08/01/its-time-to-look-beyond-ivan-novas-smoke-and-mirrors-act/

    Some interesting stuff in there, but if you're going to argue he's "lucky" with men on, you have to at least consider he may be "unlucky with bases empty. Or perhaps he does in fact gain focus and bear down situationally? Who knows.

    My guess is he's adjusting his approach and will have inconsistent results, but if he can retain the K rates and get back to reasonable Babip and hr/fb he'll enjoy much success.
    Haha, co-signed.


  21. #396
    Pinpoint False1's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by jcarey View Post
    Haha, co-signed.
    Great minds? As usual JC, you beat me to it.

  22. #397

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Nova vs. Verlander tonight. Sometimes this game just isn't fair on paper.


  23. #398

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by ArodEra View Post
    Nova vs. Verlander tonight. Sometimes this game just isn't fair on paper.
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  24. #399
    time of my life ... ajra21's Avatar
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    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Carsten Charles View Post
    An .848 OPS against is not even close to being a good mid-rotation guy. For reference, John Lackey's OPS against last year was .852. Nova has been terrible this year. He's getting lucky stranding a ton of runners on base.
    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    I don't worry about him. He's a young pitcher. It's part of the growing pains. Especially because his flashes of dominance are really good.
    He's yet to make 60 starts in the majors and I don't start judging a pitcher until he reaches that plateau. Right now, he's given more than most Yankee fans ever thought possible. He's got enough talent to be effective for a number of years. Glad we have him, expect him to improve as he gets more innings under his belt.
    Bring tea for the Tillerman; Steak for the son; Wine for the woman
    who made the rain come; Seagulls sing your hearts away;
    'Cause while the sinners sin, the children play ...

  25. #400

    Re: 2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

    Who knows how the rest of the game will go but good job throwing a ball right down the middle on an 0-2 count to one of the best HR hitters in the game.
    "No matter who you vote for, the government always gets in." - Bill Hicks

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