2012 Ivan Nova Performance Thread

[ober0n98]

I think he has always had the velocity, he changed last year to more movement and sinking action. This year, he looks like he is mixing up varieties of fastballs with various movements. It's nice to see the growth there as well as other places.

Movement + sink generally = good pitcher as long as you have consistent command/control. Think colon in prime...or heck, think hughes in AA. Man that curve used to be so pretty...

The best thing about this is that I'm not yet convinced he's pitching at his best.

Nova is the prime example of how we should have used Hughes and Joba. Leave them alone. Keep them in the rotation.

I think nova has one awesome season the. A bunch of good/very good ones. Just following andy's blueprint... Btw, i always felt like the 5th spot should go to a kid thats worthy; its enuff innings to learn in the majors but not enuff to sink ur season...gotta dvlp these kids somehow and the fifth spot is perfect. Similar to how TB does it (kinda if u dont include the cup of coffee late in the season for the playoffa).

I can't wait for the matchup against Verlander on Friday.

I cant wait for a colom rematch. I was always a fan of colon; i just thot he ran outta gas. Speaking of colon, why doesnt he get that fancy treatment every year as a preventative step? If anything, it provides a good placebo effect.

[TheBamTino24]

Nova's development has been pretty remarkable thus far. In his first 200 IP in the Majors, his K/9 rate was about 5.5 or so, with 1.6:1 K:BB.

He posted a 6.4 K/9 and 2.19 K:BB rates in the Minors (591.1 IP), which are almost exactly the same as those put up by Chien-Ming Wang.

This year it's remarkable. I'm sure the Yankees have worked with him on refining his secondary pitches and sequence of such, all of which can contribute to improved peripherals for a young pitcher, and can come quickly depending on how that particular pitcher embraces and commands those lessons.

So far, so good for Nova. He has a blistering 9.2 K/9 and 5.0 K:BB rate. He looks like a different pitcher on the mound too, which offers some optimism that what we're seeing is not just a statistical anomaly. We'll see...

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

Nova's development has been pretty remarkable thus far. In his first 200 IP in the Majors, his K/9 rate was about 5.5 or so, with 1.6:1 K:BB.

He posted a 6.4 K/9 and 2.19 K:BB rates in the Minors (591.1 IP), which are almost exactly the same as those put up by Chien-Ming Wang.

This year it's remarkable. I'm sure the Yankees have worked with him on refining his secondary pitches and sequence of such, all of which can contribute to improved peripherals for a young pitcher, and can come quickly depending on how that particular pitcher embraces and commands those lessons.

So far, so good for Nova. He has a blistering 9.2 K/9 and 5.0 K:BB rate. He looks like a different pitcher on the mound too, which offers some optimism that what we're seeing is not just a statistical anomaly. We'll see...

I went to Nova's Fangraphs page, and here's two conflicting things -- both of which may just reflect a SSS:

First, I noticed his BABIP is .421 right now -- that made me feel better about all those hits he was giving up. Then I read this artlce and wondered if those K's are going to start to decrease in the coming weeks:

A breakout for Ivan Nova, actually supported by his skills this time? With a 20/2 K/BB ratio in 19.0 innings and a 2.75 SIERA, some may think yes. But, looking deeper, we find a SwStk% just as poor as last year and well below the league average. We also see a F-Strike% below last year’s mark and right at the league average. Seems to me that he has been the ultimate benefactor of great sequencing, because absolutely nothing in his stats right now can explain how his strikeout rate is so high and walk rate so low. Given last year’s fortunate ERA and 16 wins, he is quite a fantastic sell high guy.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...om-tier-notes/

Guess we'll see how it all works out as the sample sizes get larger

[ieddyi]

I went to Nova's Fangraphs page, and here's two conflicting things -- both of which may just reflect a SSS:

First, I noticed his BABIP is .421 right now -- that made me feel better about all those hits he was giving up. Then I read this artlce and wondered if those K's are going to start to decrease in the coming weeks:



http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...om-tier-notes/

Guess we'll see how it all works out as the sample sizes get larger

Or, could be that they really undervalue his ability to keep the ball low and induce poor contact- easy GB outs. Quality of contact is one thing a pitcher can control and it is entirely overlooked by FIP and other metrics. To me it seems like one of the best determinants of how well a pitcher performs

It was the same song w/ Wang who was seriously undervalued because of his low K rate

Nova does seem to have a knack for getting out of jams w/ minimal damage, but I think his stuff is for real and will translate to success if it remains the same quality

[jcarey]

I went to Nova's Fangraphs page, and here's two conflicting things -- both of which may just reflect a SSS:

First, I noticed his BABIP is .421 right now -- that made me feel better about all those hits he was giving up. Then I read this artlce and wondered if those K's are going to start to decrease in the coming weeks:



http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...om-tier-notes/

Guess we'll see how it all works out as the sample sizes get larger

Nothing to back this up, but it might be that Nova pitches to contact until he gets two strikes and then tries to avoid bats. And it seems that his out pitches, especially the slider, are very effective at getting swings and misses. It would be interesting to see his K rates after 2 strikes for the past two years and compare them to those of other strikeout pitchers. Maybe he's getting the swings and misses late in the count when he wants them, which would explain the lower SS% and higher K/9. If he's developed a true knockout pitch, maybe he needs to use it more often and not pitch to contact as often.

[TheBamTino24]

All these intense statistics are interesting to see and understand for sure, but the other side of this whole thing is that when a young pitcher develops, you start seeing changes and jumps in certain stats as they learn their craft, mature, and so forth.

It's not always a linear, mathematically-predictable situation.

For Nova, let's hope we've got a keeper. He's got pretty good stuff and great presence on the mound. He seems to be buildling confidence too. So, a good start.

[teknetic]

His numbers are ghastly:

Did you know that coming into this start, hitters had tagged Ivan Nova for a .343/.378/.619 batting line 111 plate appearances? That’s unbelievably bad. I knew he was giving up lots of fly balls and extra-base hits in the early going, but good grief, I didn’t realize it was that bad. I haven’t done the math, but chances are those numbers climbed even higher following Wednesday’s game.

[sweet_lou_14]

His numbers are ghastly:

Pretty eye-opening. He seems to do a great job of minimizing the damage in terms of runs scored, but nonetheless those stats are a concern.

[effdamets]

Pretty eye-opening. He seems to do a great job of minimizing the damage in terms of runs scored, but nonetheless those stats are a concern.

At this point a 79 ERA+.....

Not good.

[NoodleRay]

For what ever reason Joe left Nova out there knowing he was out of gas, that's right Nova pitched his way out of many jams last night. At the same time he like other starters has pitched from behind, Yankees are having their troubles putting up runs.

I have said from the very beginning that Nova is a star, my thoughts and feelings on him haven't changed at all. This young man has what it takes, but even so he too is human and can be led into throwing the wrong pitch at times.

Last night Joe should have lifted him after giving up the HR, and being well over 100 pitches. There was no reason to leave him out there so his ERA would suffer, after keeping us right there and pitching pretty well. Seems like Joe protects certain others (pitchers) and he leaves Nova out there to the point that his ERA an other stats take a good hit, lets remember What Joe did to him when he was one of our top pitchers, and he sent him back down.

[Mr.Muhozi]

His numbers are ghastly:

American's use the word 'ghastly'? I'm surprised.

[teknetic]

I watched a lot of Pokemon.

[Yankees1962]

Great job by Nova tonight. His slider has come a long way and makes him a more swing and miss pitcher.

[Yankees1962]

I didn't realize how spread out Nova's pitches were last night. He only threw 39 fastballs among his 93 pitches. The rest were changeups, sliders and curveballs.

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/...2F&prevDate=58

[The Comic Book Guy]

He doesn't quite have the devastating power sinker, but with the natural movement and velocity on his fastball, and the developing power slider, I'm really starting to see some Kevin Brown, and I mean that in good way.

I really felt he was a Fasto Carmona without the constant implosion potential, but provided he can keep his K-rate up as his BABIP and HR/FB rate nomalizes, I'm starting to come around on him as a legit developing ace.

[Yankees1962]

He doesn't quite have the devastating power sinker, but with the natural movement and velocity on his fastball, and the developing power slider, I'm really starting to see some Kevin Brown, and I mean that in good way.

I really felt he was a Fasto Carmona without the constant implosion potential, but provided he can keep his K-rate up as his BABIP and HR/FB rate nomalizes, I'm starting to come around on him as a legit developing ace.

He's not throwing his sinker. He only threw 3 two-seamer fastballs last night.

[The Comic Book Guy]

He's not throwing his sinker. He only threw 3 two-seamer fastballs last night.

He threw a bunch in the two starts he struggled. Makes sense, you allow a bunch of baserunners, you try to get groundballs.

It's definitely a pitch he should try to develop, I think.

[jcarey]

He doesn't quite have the devastating power sinker, but with the natural movement and velocity on his fastball, and the developing power slider, I'm really starting to see some Kevin Brown, and I mean that in good way.

I really felt he was a Fasto Carmona without the constant implosion potential, but provided he can keep his K-rate up as his BABIP and HR/FB rate nomalizes, I'm starting to come around on him as a legit developing ace.

Must keep throwing.

[Bernforever51]

I think with Andy coming in we should shuffle the rotation and eventually make Nova the #2 starter. Kuroda and Hughes are too bipolar to be in that slot.

[mal1219]

I think with Andy coming in we should shuffle the rotation and eventually make Nova the #2 starter. Kuroda and Hughes are too bipolar to be in that slot.

Agreed, if he can keep up his stuff from the last outing. That's what I like about Nova, on nights when he's on he can be close to unhittable, on lesser nights he's bend-but-don't-break... Then again, who knows how sharp Andy might turn out to be.

[BRNXBMRS]

And Cashman left him unproteceted in the Rule 5 draft a few years back. He certaintly was dealing last night. The game was cruising till the 7th.

[grizy]

Kuroda more bipolar than Nova? That's a bit of a stretch. Nova hasn't exactly kept us in the game for half of his starts either. He did break. The offense just picked him up.

Kuroda is still putting up better numbers in terms of both WHIP and ERA+. Not particularly close either.

[ieddyi]

Nice fist pump

[Yankees1962]

And Cashman left him unproteceted in the Rule 5 draft a few years back. He certaintly was dealing last night. The game was cruising till the 7th.

He's not the same pitcher from December, 2009. He's made great improvements since then, but still has a ways to go from here on out.

[Art Vanderlay]

Kuroda more bipolar than Nova? That's a bit of a stretch. Nova hasn't exactly kept us in the game for half of his starts either. He did break. The offense just picked him up.

Kuroda is still putting up better numbers in terms of both WHIP and ERA+. Not particularly close either.

What I see so far is a true ace (CC Sabathia) backed up by a bunch of number 4 and 5 starters. Nova and/or Hughes may eventually develop into solid number 2 or 3 types, but they are not there yet. I am not impressed with Kuroda at all. He may have been a number 2 in the NL West, but IMO his stuff does not translate to a number 2 in the AL EAST. 10 million for that dude is a gross overpay.