2012 Phil Hughes Performance Thread

[marechal]

He has the same number of walks as HRs allowed (8). The fly balls have really been a problem this year (29% ground ball rate, the worst in his career). All his other peripherals are shiny.

[BRNXBMRS]

Not bad at all, looks like Phelps will be in the BP once Andy gets here.

[Mr.Muhozi]

He has the same number of walks as HRs allowed (8). The fly balls have really been a problem this year (29% ground ball rate, the worst in his career). All his other peripherals are shiny.

High HR/9 the same as his BB/9 (2.54) and his HR/FB is 17.4% which is just ridiculous.

[bomber999]

So his first passable start of the year against one of the worst teams in baseball is a cause for rejoicing?

[Yankees1962]

So his first passable start of the year against one of the worst teams in baseball is a cause for rejoicing?

Who's rejoicing? Please stop with the hyperbole as the discussion on this board doesn't need that now.

[just-blaze]

So his first passable start of the year against one of the worst teams in baseball is a cause for rejoicing?

11th in RC+
10th in wOBA
9th in OPS

They may be one of the worst teams in the ML, but that's mainly due to pitching. Hitting(whom Phil has to face) is pretty solid.

Albeit, it would be nice if he could do this consistantly.

[snapple]

I am ecstatic that Hughes did well. He needs at least one more start to show. I still don't trust him, but I could be being proven wrong. Was his last start decent? Or was that one where he got hella shelled? Either way, we need to make sure it wasn't a fluke.

[bomber999]

Who's rejoicing? Please stop with the hyperbole as the discussion on this board doesn't need that now.

Clearly I was being sarcastic in using the word "rejoicing" to make a point. Hughes has been pretty awful as a starter for over an entire year now, and one decent start against the Royals is not nearly enough for me to be sold on the idea of shipping Phelps to the pen when Pettitte returns or gushing about Hughes' "shiny peripherals". I would put forth that the "discussion on this board" also doesn't need posters trying to suppress comments that they find disagreeable.

[YankeePride1967]

Clearly I was being sarcastic in using the word "rejoicing" to make a point. Hughes has been pretty awful as a starter for over an entire year now, and one decent start against the Royals is not nearly enough for me to be sold on the idea of shipping Phelps to the pen when Pettitte returns or gushing about Hughes' "shiny peripherals". I would put forth that the "discussion on this board" also doesn't need posters trying to suppress comments that they find disagreeable.

I also wouldn't send Hughes to the pen coming off one very good and before that one improved outing. If he reverts back to how he was prior, fine, but I wasn't overly enthused about Phelps start either and I am shocked that against TB Joe isn't taking advantage of the opportunity to skip his turn and instead of going Nova/CC/Kuroda is going Nova/Phelps/CC.

[Yankees1962]

Clearly I was being sarcastic in using the word "rejoicing" to make a point. Hughes has been pretty awful as a starter for over an entire year now, and one decent start against the Royals is not nearly enough for me to be sold on the idea of shipping Phelps to the pen when Pettitte returns or gushing about Hughes' "shiny peripherals". I would put forth that the "discussion on this board" also doesn't need posters trying to suppress comments that they find disagreeable.

I didn't disagree with your comment, I just thought it brought nothing to the discussion as you stated others were rejoicing over one start, when clearly that hasn't taken place. Based on your posting history, a little suppression might be a good thing, but that's for those in power to make happen.

[bomber999]

I didn't disagree with your comment, I just thought it brought nothing to the discussion as you stated others were rejoicing over one start, when clearly that hasn't taken place. Based on your posting history, a little suppression might be needed, but that's for those in power to make happen.

Have I been wrong about Hughes? And please tell me what I have ever posted that is disrespectful, offensive, or so outlandish that it required suppression.

[Yankees1962]

Have I been wrong about Hughes? And please tell me what I have ever posted that is disrespectful, offensive, or so outlandish that it required suppression.

Not my call! Have a good day.

[bomber999]

Not my call! Have a good day.

You as well, 62.

[K-W]

Clearly I was being sarcastic in using the word "rejoicing" to make a point. Hughes has been pretty awful as a starter for over an entire year now, and one decent start against the Royals is not nearly enough for me to be sold on the idea of shipping Phelps to the pen when Pettitte returns or gushing about Hughes' "shiny peripherals". I would put forth that the "discussion on this board" also doesn't need posters trying to suppress comments that they find disagreeable.

That is not sarcasm it is hyperbole as the other poster said. You used hyperbole to make a point which is fair enough. While we are using fancy words why don't we discuss the hypocrisy of you accusing posters who disagree with you of trying to suppress your comments when you initiated this exchange with a post criticizing the comments of others.

I don't think anyone is trying to sell you anything or fool you. Hughes' peripherals have been better than his performance so far this season which suggests at least some bad luck is involved and that has given people a reason to hope. A solid start adds to this hope.

There is no reason to argue with people who get hopeful based on rational analysis just because you aren't hopeful. They aren't being stupid, just optimistic.

[False1]

It's the results ultimately that matter, but from the get go this season his stuff has looked better than his back of the baseball card stats would right now.

And that is supported to a degree by his xFIP (4.21) and SIERA (3.52) loves him given his strong K rate and the fact that it normalizes his practically unsustainable FB issues right now.

No one will care about those metrics if he's still scratching for quality starts and getting beat up early in games, but they tend to support that Hughes has pitched better than his box scores and can give some hope that Hughes can be an acceptable #5 with some upside.

I mean, that 17.4% HR/FB rate can't get any worse, right?

[NelsonMuntz]

It's the results ultimately that matter, but from the get go this season his stuff has looked better than his back of the baseball card stats would right now.

And that is supported to a degree by his xFIP (4.21) and SIERA (3.52) loves him given his strong K rate and the fact that it normalizes his practically unsustainable FB issues right now.

No one will care about those metrics if he's still scratching for quality starts and getting beat up early in games, but they tend to support that Hughes has pitched better than his box scores and can give some hope that Hughes can be an acceptable #5 with some upside.

I mean, that 17.4% HR/FB rate can't get any worse, right?

You're probably right but his flyball tendencies make him a poor fit for YS. He has always pitched better on the road (Fenway not withstanding). I legitimately think he could be a solid #2/#3 starter in the NL West. For now I'll settle for #5 starter in this rotation which is possible if he can keep the ball in the park.

[modey3]

Seriously has there ever been any other pitcher in history that's had the same two-strike count problem as Phil? I mean, any pitcher would kill to have Phil's ability to quickly get ahead of hitters. It's uncanny really.

modey3

[NelsonMuntz]

Actually, I don't. The fact that a pitcher is better at home than on the road no more recommends him than that he is better on the road, given the 50-50 split. I can speculate what you might have meant, but I am not sure.

I'm suggesting that his flyball tendencies make him a bad fit for YS. Hughes has appeared in 65 games and faced 1,051 batters at YS. #2 on the list? Tropicana with 8 games and 113 batters faced. My point is that he pitches more frequently in Yankee Stadium relative to any other stadium in MLB (obviously, since he pitches for the Yankees). His road ERA is more than a run lower, ergo, my statement that it's too bad for us that he pitches most of his games at Yankee Stadium. Yes, in aggregate the total number of road games is just about equal to the number of games he pitches at home but he still pitches 50% of his games in a ballpark where he tends to struggle. If he pitched 50% of his games in a more flyball friendly park like Safeco or Comerica his overall ERA would likely be lower.

[Yankee Tripper]

I'm glad he had a good game. I wouldn't say he's "over the hump" based on one good oiting but there were at least some encouraging signs.

Of course getting up 7-1 early can do a lot to "relax" a pitcher.

[ThePinStripes]

11th in RC+
10th in wOBA
9th in OPS

They may be one of the worst teams in the ML, but that's mainly due to pitching. Hitting(whom Phil has to face) is pretty solid.

Albeit, it would be nice if he could do this consistantly.

Where do those numbers land them in the AL?
It's misleading to include the NL in there because they're weaker offensively and have no DH.

[just-blaze]

Where do those numbers land them in the AL?
It's misleading to include the NL in there because they're weaker offensively and have no DH.

They still have offenses? And we will eventually have to face some of them, Phil included.

But to your point.....

7th in RC+
6th in wOBA
6th in OPS

Still in the top half of the AL.

[jcarey]

Seriously has there ever been any other pitcher in history that's had the same two-strike count problem as Phil? I mean, any pitcher would kill to have Phil's ability to quickly get ahead of hitters. It's uncanny really.

modey3

This is why adding a solid change could launch Phil forward more than we think. It's not so much an extra piece, but could be the final piece. Then it's just a matter of fine tuning.

[ThePinStripes]

They still have offenses? And we will eventually have to face some of them, Phil included.

But to your point.....

7th in RC+
6th in wOBA
6th in OPS

Still in the top half of the AL.

Interesting. Their RS is fairly low.

[jcarey]

Interesting. Their RS is fairly low.

Outside of Butler, they had been miserable with RISP.

[Petey]

Averaged 93 and topped out at 96 according to PitchFX

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/...2F&prevDate=56

At the risk of sounding stupid, does PitchFX always operate independently of the stadium gun, or could it possibly just be reporting the same thing as the stadium gun that we see on TV?