2012 Russell Martin Performance Thread

[JL25and3]

I don't see anything wrong with what he said. I think he has hit the ball harder than your run-of-the-mill <.200 hitter generally does. He probably has had some bad luck. I don't see him excusing it here though. I'm sure Girardi would rather see a bloop hit than a loud out for Martin all day every day. Just appears to be commenting on what is probably directionally accurate.

That's probably true. He's hitting the ball more like a .220 hitter than a .195 hitter.

[geoffman]

Thats nice that bit of intensity he had going before getting lifted for Granderson as a PH has carried over to a nice game.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

Now comes the insanely hot September that leads to his next contract

[ThePinStripes]

That's probably true. He's hitting the ball more like a .220 hitter than a .195 hitter.

.211 BABIP, .203 BA. He's about where he should be.

[unfamous loser]

big HR tonight, at least.

[geoffman]

Now comes the insanely hot September that leads to his next contract

He is earning more leverage for sure. I think being under .200 might have played a role in getting him motivated.

I will take it whatever it is. Team could use a spark. I hope it carries over.

[-tz]

big HR tonight, at least.

And big double. Three RBI-night.

[just-blaze]

.211 BABIP, .203 BA. He's about where he should be.

An average BABIP is around .290, and a consistently high or low BABIP is very difficult to maintain.

Read more: How to Calculate Babip | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_5137114_calc...#ixzz25ebWsOiw

[BRNXBMRS]

He lives!

[JL25and3]

An average BABIP is around .290, and a consistently high or low BABIP is very difficult to maintain.

Read more: How to Calculate Babip | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_5137114_calc...#ixzz25ebWsOiw

That's talking about BABIP for pitchers, not for hitters. BABIP is often consistently high for very good hitters, consistently low for very bad ones.

[grizy]

Not .213 low and almost never .350 high.

Even extreme pull hitters hitting into the shift bottom out around .250.

Martin is not that.

[awy]

i'd say it's more about whatever hidden injury he's had to play through rather than mere luck. stretches without any power are telling. martin has some power and if he's going 20 games without a long fly he's probably hurt.

[freebubba]

Came up HUGE in what I'll say was a "must" win game, he deserves his props for that.

[grizy]

That happened right before the all star break. He needed rest.

Even with that power outage for 20 games, his HR/FB is at a career high this year, suggesting he's hitting the ball pretty hard.

Imagine if he actually got the rest he needs... or just a little bit mediocre (instead of atrocious) luck with BABIP.

Also keep in mind teams have access to hit/fx data. If the ball is coming off Martin's bat at lower velocities, the FO would know.

[JL25and3]

Not .213 low and almost never .350 high.

Even extreme pull hitters hitting into the shift bottom out around .250.

Martin is not that.

You're already talking about numbers well out of the .290 range. In general, it's not correct to apply the pitcher's BABIP argument to hitters.

The main reason it's difficult to sustain a very low BABIP is that hitters that bad don't last long. A very high BABIP is hard to sustain because hitters that good are rare. The best contact hitters do it, though - Ichiro! has a career BABIP of .347, and Jeter's is .354.

[False1]

.211 BABIP, .203 BA. He's about where he should be.

Actually, the .211 BABIP suggests that he's not about where he should be, particularly when you look at (yes, I know this is imperfect but still directionally worthwhile to note) his LD% is right around his career norm and higher than last year. His walk rates are good, his isop is good (actually right about his career high). People tend to remember the weak grounders to the left side and the ABs where he looks completely overmatched more so than loud outs. He's not a .280 hitter anymore to be sure, but I think he has had some bad luck this year.

[grizy]

The lowest BABIP recorded by any player with at least 3000PAs since 1950 is .239 by Wayne Gross.

[jcarey]

When Wayne Gross batted .206 on the season in 1984, he at least had the decency to get on base at a .346 clip.

[JL25and3]

The lowest BABIP recorded by any player with at least 3000PAs since 1950 is .239 by Wayne Gross.

Again, that's not because it's difficult to sustain a low BABIP. It's just difficult to sustain a low BABIP and remain in the major leagues.

[grizy]

And again, you don't seem to understand how abnormally low .213 BABIP is.

Even if you lower the PA requirements to 500 and count only pitchers (who would not be sent down due to bad hitting), Martin would be in the bottom quartile of that group.

I find it hard to believe Martin is hitting worse than ~75% of pitchers. *

*Don Newcombe's 93WRC+, Don Larsens 80WRC+, and Earl Wilson's 79WRC+ are top 3 in this group.

[JL25and3]

And again, you don't seem to understand how abnormally low .213 BABIP is.

Even if you lower the PA requirements to 50 and count only pitchers (who would not be sent down due to bad hitting), Martin would be in the bottom quartile of that group.

I find it hard to believe Martin is hitting worse than ~75% of pitchers.

No, I understand how much of an outlier that is. He's not realistically that bad, nor is he realistically a sub-.200 hitter.

I still maintain the point that it's not appropriate to talk about BABIP for batters in the same terms as for pitchers. Batters have a good deal of control over it, and it reflects much more actual ability (as opposed to luck) than it does with pitchers. With better luck, Martin would probably be hitting more like .225-.230 with a BABIP more in the .240-.250 range. The rest is due to bad hitting.

[grizy]

The break down of his LD, GB, pull, center, oppo, and FB%s don't support he's hitting worse (or even differently) than historical norms. The HR/FB certainly isn't supported by more weakly hit balls either.

Even if you don't buy that, with just the adjustments you suggest, Martin's more luck-neutral WRC+ is just over 100.

[just-blaze]

That's talking about BABIP for pitchers, not for hitters. BABIP is often consistently high for very good hitters, consistently low for very bad ones.

It's still calculated the same way and the argument you have been making can apply to pitchers and hitters.

Grizy and False went into better detail on my opinion.

[hardrain]

If Martin wants to have his only hot streak during these last three weeks of the season, I'm OK with that. 3-run bomb.

[JL25and3]

It's still calculated the same way and the argument you have been making can apply to pitchers and hitters.

Grizy and False went into better detail on my opinion.

No, it doesn't apply equally to pitchers and hitters. The original idea was that pitchers had virtually no control over what happened to batted balls, that BABIP was almost entirely a matter of luck. That was modified over time - some pitchers have some control - but it still formed one of the bases for FIP and the like.

Batters' BABIP has significantly more to do with ability and less with luck than pitchers' BABIP. Good contact hitters maintain high BABIP; bad hitters maintain low BABIP.