2012 Michael Pineda Performance Thread

[jcarey]

Except that it is. There are several players with this injury who have returned to the majors....
Bedard, Hoffman, Roche, Kerry Wood, Ted Lilley, Jeff Francis, Clemens, Chris Carpenter and Jon Rauch. I have probably missed a couple.

Then you have the Kelvim Escobars, Brandon Webb, and more than 50 other MLB pitchers who went out with a torn labrum and have never returned.

The obvious study was the one Will Carroll referenced, when from 99-04, ....36 MLB pitchers suffered a torn labrum, one made it back.

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports...illed_him.html

If you use that run rate, you are looking at about 7 pitchers a year going down with the injury. So from 99-now, it would be approximatealy 91 players going down. Medicine has improved since 99-94, no doubt.

Still if you take say 90 pitchers going down, throw out say 25..not great, never given the chance, old, did not want to rehab, etc....that leaves 55.

I listed the players who made it back, it is at 9. Let's say I missed a bunch, double the number. 18 out of 55. Push the math further, say 20 out of 50.

That is still far less than 50%.

Pineda had a huge career in front of him. The Yanks will give him every opportunity to succeed. He definitely has a chance coming all the way back. Several players have beaten the odds. However the odds are not even 50/50. We need some luck here.

Wait, how many of these players never threw another MLB pitch?

[Mr Coffee]

if you are going to bring up veteran players who retire after such an injury then it's only fair to consider all of the high school, college, and minor league players who never come back from shoulder surgery. We've never heard of them, but they are statistically relevant.

I doubt those stats are available, but yeah-- I'd put those in too.

[Tifoso]

if you are going to bring up veteran players who retire after such an injury then it's only fair to consider all of the high school, college, and minor league players who never come back from shoulder surgery. We've never heard of them, but they are statistically relevant.

I actually know one (was in the Indians system). Really nice guy, too.

[Kingofkings19]

Rothschild on Pineda

“With elbows it is a lot more predictable and you can expect. With shoulders, really, I think you take him off the radar screen, bring him back as the injury allows. But I don’t think we can count on him for next year at all. And hopefully he comes back and it’s a great addition, but if you count on him and think he’s going to be back by a certain point, you have a pretty high percentage of being disappointed with that. So I think you’re better off just approaching it that he’s not going to be back next year. And if things go right — and he certainly could come back and be able to pitch, I wouldn’t doubt that at all — but for us to count on him, I think, would be a mistake.”


http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2012/11/0...-and-pettitte/

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

whoa.

[jcarey]

whoa.

Seems like the right strategy from a personnel standpoint.

[sweet_lou_14]

I don't expect him to ever throw a pitch for the Yankees.

Certainly hoping to be wrong but until then I'm going to forget this guy exists.

[longtimeyankeefan]

I don't expect him to ever throw a pitch for the Yankees.

Certainly hoping to be wrong but until then I'm going to forget this guy exists.

He already has, albeit in Spring Training 2012.

Whether he ever throws for the Yankees in an actual Major League game remains to be seen - my guess is YES, in 2013 and we will be pleased at the end of all this hoopla.

Of course, I also live in the eternal state of optomism that the Yankees will win it all.

[flymick24]

even though the shoulder procedure was arthroscopic and not overly invasive, it honestly really depends on how committed to his rehab he was/is

and judging from stuff like my avatar pic, i'm not overly optimistic he'll come back effective

[snapple]

even though the shoulder procedure was arthroscopic and not overly invasive, it honestly really depends on how committed to his rehab he was/is

and judging from stuff like my avatar pic, i'm not overly optimistic he'll come back effective

>dui
>isn't taking rehab seriously

I'm glad rehab and a dui are completely correlated...ohwait

[awy]

a dui is ................ing dangerous and he was out at 2 am while drunk. it's not like he went to a friend's nice social party and just happened to get drunk.

[False1]

a dui is ................ing dangerous and he was out at 2 am while drunk. it's not like he went to a friend's nice social party and just happened to get drunk.

I agree, a DUI is dangerous and a serious character issue. But I'm not going to jump to the conclusion that he's not taking rehab seriously as a direct result. Is he supposed to go through therapy all day, then immediately go home and lock himself in his hyperbaric chamber?

Are there are reports from credible sources that indicate (in either direction) the status of his effort towards rehab, whether the 2am drinking episodes were common or unusual?

[awy]

i would think getting a proper daily schedule to your life is a basic element of any rehab plan. if a 2 am drinking binge figures into this, i'd be surprised.

not aware of any reports of his rehab attitude, or the degree of supervision they have got on him that allows for any reports to be made.

[False1]

i would think getting a proper daily schedule to your life is a basic element of any rehab plan. if a 2 am drinking binge figures into this, i'd be surprised.

not aware of any reports of his rehab attitude, or the degree of supervision they have got on him that allows for any reports to be made.

I'm just questioning the assertion that one known night out on the town = "not taking rehab seriously"

[awy]

we are not saying it definitely proves that he's not taking it seriously and would be happy if he is taking it seriously. just saying it's not a good sign, and given how few signs we have it's the one sign we have to go on.

and it's not a good sign

and that's not to say it's time to panic. just want tighter supervision.

[flymick24]

he came to yankee camp overweight and out of shape.. he said he needed to take a break after pitching so many innings in 2011, but the implication was that he wouldn't gorge himself in the process

he's young, and in all likelihood, still terribly immature... if i'm cashman, i have eyes on him like a hawk (which is part of the reason why i think he's overhauling the entire tampa staff right now)

[snapple]

since when do 23 year olds need babysitters?

[THEBOSS84]

since when do 23 year olds need babysitters?

Pineda is a foreigner that the Yanks invested heavily in. They better watch him to make sure he's in shape and not doing stupid things. I doubt he has too many close relatives to lean on here for guidance at this point.

[snapple]

Pineda is a foreigner that the Yanks invested heavily in. They better watch him to make sure he's in shape and not doing stupid things. I doubt he has too many close relatives to lean on here for guidance at this point.

He's not a child, though.

[awy]

have you ever bene around teenagers?

[snapple]

have you ever bene around teenagers?

i've been a teenager.

[awy]

great.

[goin for 27]

even though the shoulder procedure was arthroscopic and not overly invasive, it honestly really depends on how committed to his rehab he was/is

No. It is a devastating injury. Don't think that because it may have been repaired arthroscopically that it is not quite serious. He could be rehabbing his ass off, it just may never work out.

[flymick24]

No. It is a devastating injury. Don't think that because it may have been repaired arthroscopically that it is not quite serious. He could be rehabbing his ass off, it just may never work out.

this is from cashman:

“We’re not going to downplay the significance of this injury, but there is a high success rate coming back from this particular surgery. If we weren’t dealing with this, it would be a certainly better situation. It could be worse if it involved a rotator cuff. But it’s certainly not a good situation.”

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2012...t-rehab-outing

that sounds far from "devastating," as you put it... as others have pointed out, there have been a number of pitcher who had the same procedure and went on to have very productive careers, and then there have been players who haven't... in the end, there's nothing inherently career-threatening about the injury itself, but it could become that way if the player doesn't properly go about the recovery process

[mr.roy]

whoa.

Right.