2012 Michael Pineda Performance Thread

[JfromJersey]

Pardon my ignorance but last year (for the 1st half of the season) was he consistently mid to high nineties with his heater, or more low to mid nineties with an occasional upper nineties reading? The fact that in the second half his velo went down without being injured, makes me think that either mentally he's afraid to push it, or physically his arm tired a bit. Maybe we're getting a guy who can average about 94 and occasionally hit 96 or 97 when needed, instead of a guy who is consistently 95 or above. If he has command and his slider and change are good, I can live with that.

[Yankees1962]

Pardon my ignorance but last year (for the 1st half of the season) was he consistently mid to high nineties with his heater, or more low to mid nineties with an occasional upper nineties reading? The fact that in the second half his velo went down without being injured, makes me think that either mentally he's afraid to push it, or physically his arm tired a bit. Maybe we're getting a guy who can average about 94 and occasionally hit 96 or 97 when needed, instead of a guy who is consistently 95 or above. If he has command and his slider and change are good, I can live with that.

His velocity went down a couple of games in which he had more than a week off before starts as the Mariners limited his innings in August/September.

[NelsonMuntz]

Pardon my ignorance but last year (for the 1st half of the season) was he consistently mid to high nineties with his heater, or more low to mid nineties with an occasional upper nineties reading? The fact that in the second half his velo went down without being injured, makes me think that either mentally he's afraid to push it, or physically his arm tired a bit. Maybe we're getting a guy who can average about 94 and occasionally hit 96 or 97 when needed, instead of a guy who is consistently 95 or above. If he has command and his slider and change are good, I can live with that.

Here is a link to his 2011 velocity chart on fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.asp...ion=P#velocity

It looks like there was a sharp drop off at the end of the season so i do understand some of the concern but I believe his average fastball velocity for the season was 94.2. As such, I think the media are getting carried away with the assertion that he needs to be sitting at 97 to be effective.

[The Comic Book Guy]

Here are my feelings on the velo. issue:

There's a good chance Pineda's velocity WILL dip from the levels show in 2011. He's a young pitcher who pitched 171 IP in his first season in the bigs (previous high: 139). Last year his heater (according to PitchFX) averaged 94.2 mph. It wouldn't surprise me if it's averaging between 92-93 this season. It also wouldn't worry me if he's averaging between 92-93 this season. Young pitchers often see decreases in their velocities following their first full season in the bigs. I wonder how much this board and the NY Media would be freaking out if we had had Lincecum in 2009 when his FB fell from 94.2 the year before to 92.3 (he still won the CYA)...

Anyway, it sounds like the changeup that he's working on with Larry has the makings of an above average, maybe even plus pitch. If that's the case, with his slider and command, he should still give us 190 IP of 115-120 ERA+ pitching. Maybe a small downtick in his velocity will force him to refine his command.

One thing I will say: I do think that he needs to learn a lesson about the important of conditioning. Hopefully Andy takes him under his wing, for this very purpose. I'd like to see him get on the sort of maniacal training regimen that guys like Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt are known for. IMO that's the best way for power pitchers to maintain their fastballs over the course of their careers.

tl;dr version: Wouldn't surprise if his velocity declines somewhat this year, not worried if it does as long as he's still sitting 92-93. Think he can still be effective at that speed if the changeup comes along, and I think it will. With a crazy training regimen, a la the one Clemens and Pettitte adopted, I think he'd be able to keep his velocities in the mid-high 90s and have a great career.

[yarosh25]

This thread has more ups and downs than a roller coaster. First, shock over a loss of Jesus, then giddyness over Pineda's stuff, control and results. Then, third and current stage - paralysis by analysis. "Let's find a flaw in guy we just got so I can look like a genius" syndrome. Coupled with a bored writer in a need of story to sell newspapers suring Spring Training where Yankees roster is set/Jeter signed/no camp drama. Suddenly everybody forgot that the sole purpose of Spring Training is to get in shape for a season and work on new pitches/mechanics/tweaks. On the extreme end of the sprectrum there are conspiracy theorists that claim that Mariners sold a bill of goods/Cashman got hosed/ Jack Z. robbed us blind.
Pineda comes into camp, works on the change up, incorporates it into games, yet everybody talks about velocity as if pitchers pitch at regular velocity during Spring Training.
Can we please just enjoy the new guy before shatting all over him. Thank you for your time.

[spikeowenfan]

yet everybody talks about velocity as if pitchers pitch at regular velocity during Spring Training.

do they not? I don't know the answer to that, but no other pitcher has stood out to me as throwing much below their normal range. It's not like these guys have just picked up baseballs for the first time; spring training started a month ago and they probably started throwing before that. I had always thought that the velocity gets there pretty quickly and it's more a matter of stretching their arms out to pitch 7 innings.

[THEBOSS84]

Ian O'Connor ‏ @Ian_OConnor Cashman said Pineda showed up 20 pds heavier than '11 and likely didnt pick up a ball once in winter. #yankees http://tinyurl.com/7xmhu7v

[JOBA RULES]

Ian O'Connor ‏ @Ian_OConnor Cashman said Pineda showed up 20 pds heavier than '11 and likely didnt pick up a ball once in winter. #yankees http://tinyurl.com/7xmhu7v

So knowing this you go ahead and trade Montero for him?

Has Ibanez had a hit all spring?

ugh.

[jcarey]

So knowing this you go ahead and trade Montero for him?

Has Ibanez had a hit all spring?

ugh.

Let's not act like Montero had no reported issues with work ethic or attitude. They're both young and probably a bit immature.

This particular criticism is also a bit odd considering the inspiration for your handle.

[YESSIR!]

Ian O'Connor ‏ @Ian_OConnor Cashman said Pineda showed up 20 pds heavier than '11 and likely didnt pick up a ball once in winter. #yankees http://tinyurl.com/7xmhu7v

Here's the link to Cashman's interview with O'Connor:

http://espn.go.com/espnradio/newyork/play?id=7705066

[awy]

brilliant

so now nobody has to worry and we can all be happy.

this apparent laziness doesn't seem to be hindering him from gaining skills in the form of devastating offspeed pitches. it does affect conditioning, future durability etc. but the yankees does not have to sign him to a 10 year contract and he is young enough to carry some weight, until he's not young anymore .

[Yankees13]

I'm usually all for Cashman's candor but he really should have kept that one to himself. Having said that, who knows how this trade will work out but going into the season I'd rather have Montero on this team.

[1936-1939JoeNLou]

Please throw 98 !!

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

brilliant

so now nobody has to worry and we can all be happy.

this apparent laziness doesn't seem to be hindering him from gaining skills in the form of devastating offspeed pitches. it does affect conditioning, future durability etc. but the yankees does not have to sign him to a 10 year contract and he is young enough to carry some weight, until he's not young anymore .

Or that fact that in his first ML season (at 22) he did some amazing things.

One of the things that I don’t think gets discussed enough about Pineda is his amazing control. As a rookie, he posted the 13th best F-Strike% among all starters. That’s pretty darn awesome. His minor league walk rates never jumped above 2.5, so it is clear that he truly has sterling control. I wouldn’t be surprised if he posts a 2.5 BB/9 or so, but feel more comfortable only projecting a minor drop.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...ichael-pineda/

Of course he could regress, or get hurt, but it feels like some are ignoring just how good this guy was on a ML level last year. He seems to be a very gifted pitcher, which is impressive given his age and size.

[THEBOSS84]

I am very excited about the future of Pineda and I loved the trade, but even when we first got him I didn't think he'd repeat last year's numbers. If he has diminished velocity, I think he'd be slightly worse than league average ERA-wise if I had to bet.

[THEBOSS84]

The funny thing is that once we traded for him, some of jokingly said "watch him top out at 91 now"...

[kan_t]

The funny thing is that once we traded for him, some of jokingly said "watch him top out at 91 now"...

It's good that he's already topped out at 93 in the Spring Training.

[THEBOSS84]

It's good that he's already topped out at 93 in the Spring Training.

I know, I know.

[JOBA RULES]

Let's not act like Montero had no reported issues with work ethic or attitude. They're both young and probably a bit immature.

This particular criticism is also a bit odd considering the inspiration for your handle.

lol I thought it would be a cool handle

[Eldee5]

I'm just talking out of my hat here because I don't really know the answer to the question:

Could this be posturing on Cashman's part? If they option Pineda down to AAA, does that put his arbitration clock on hold? I'm wondering if they might be doing this for future financial reasons. If he's pitching well by opening day, I'm sure that he'll be in the major league rotation but if he's questionable there might be more than one reason to send him down, no?

[JL25and3]

I'm just talking out of my hat here because I don't really know the answer to the question:

Could this be posturing on Cashman's part? If they option Pineda down to AAA, does that put his arbitration clock on hold? I'm wondering if they might be doing this for future financial reasons. If he's pitching well by opening day, I'm sure that he'll be in the major league rotation but if he's questionable there might be more than one reason to send him down, no?

The new CBA provides for more Super Twos, so they'd probably have to keep him down for a good chunk of the season if they want to make sure he's not arbitration-eligible after 2013.

[SLURPEE]

I keep hearing he could be an option to send down. Why?

Is it because he came in over weight?

Is it because of velocity?

If it's the latter, who's to say that it won't be there all year. Sometimes with these power pitchers, they don't have their normal velocity every single year.

If he's going to have an off year with the velocity, sending him down isn't going to change that. imo

I seriously don't trust this organization when it comes to developing starters.

[snapple]

He's had hella control on the breaking balls. The CU is looking good and the slider is otherworldly

He just needs velocity on the fb, now

[SLURPEE]

Right.

Everything else looks great. Yeah we expect mid/upper nineties but low nineties right now is fine.

Makes zero sense to send him down.

[b_joseph]

I keep hearing he could be an option to send down. Why?

When you listen to some of the radio guys and read some articles...they make it seem like he hasnt proven anything. Yet in the same breath talk about Nova like he has all the track record a pitcher could have.
I guess its one of those things where folks dont understand that there is a universe outside of Yankee Stadium, so anything a player has accomplished elsewhere doesnt count.