What happens with Burnett?

[Yankyfan]

Source tells ESPN deal only 50-50- to be done. Pitt has to improve prospects or increase cash. http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/stor...de-sources-say

[hellonewman]

Source tells ESPN deal only 50-50- to be done. Pitt has to improve prospects or increase cash. http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/stor...de-sources-say

Sounds like some gamesmanship by the Yankees.

[NelsonMuntz]

Sounds like some gamesmanship by the Yankees.

Yep. I can't imagine that a deal does not get done at this point.

[Yankyfan]

Joel Sheman says more players may be involved.... Cervelli ?

[Gusto]

Joel Sheman says more players may be involved.... Cervelli ?

link?

[Yankyfan]

Mlb xm

[JL25and3]

there are many adjustments/variables at play here. they're all related to the DH, or lack thereof, but it affects NL roster mgmt, frequency rates of pitchers becoming over/under exposed, # of pitches per inning, etc.

i'm not trying to nitpick here, but i see Burnett's fluctuation in the AL as a precursor to better things in the NL. less chance of volatility, so to speak.

For the last two years, A. J. Burnett has pitched well over a full run above league average ERA. The league average ERA in the NL was .15 - .20 runs less than in the AL - taking all those adjustments and variables into account. AJ doesn't suddenly go from a 5.15 pitcher to a 4.00 pitcher just because he goes into the NL.

Remember, it wasn't long ago that AJ was a league average pitcher in the AL. Since then he got worse. He's a 2-pitch pitcher who's lost a few mph off his fastball, and who doesn't have the command to make up for it. Moving to the NL isn't going to change that, and he's not suddenly going to become league average just because he doesn't face a DH. He's got to become a better pitcher than he is now.

But the pitcher he is now is the one the Pirates are trading for. The idea that they should pay for a league-average pitcher when he's spent two years at ~85 ERA+ doesn't make sense.

[Yankyfan]

More on AJ https://twitter.com/#!/Joelsherman1

[ArodEra]

Best case scenario would be AJ for Hafner, considering that if we trade him to the Pirates, the most likely candidate for DH against RHP would be Damon, Matsui or Ibanez. I'd much rather have Hafner, as the others mentioned don't come close to his splits.

Being that the Indians probably won't do an even swap, our choice might be limited to the remaining three. In that case, I'd prefer Damon, partly for sentimental reasons. Ibanez doesn't give you much more in the power dept and Damon at least gives you some speed on the bases.

[StingrayJG]

Yep. I can't imagine that a deal does not get done at this point.

He's gotta go somewhere. After expressing how bad you don't want him anymore by your vigorous shopping around of him, you don't want him back in that clubhouse, that's for sure.

[just-blaze]

For the last two years, A. J. Burnett has pitched well over a full run above league average ERA. The league average ERA in the NL was .15 - .20 runs less than in the AL - taking all those adjustments and variables into account. AJ doesn't suddenly go from a 5.15 pitcher to a 4.00 pitcher just because he goes into the NL.

Remember, it wasn't long ago that AJ was a league average pitcher in the AL. Since then he got worse. He's a 2-pitch pitcher who's lost a few mph off his fastball, and who doesn't have the command to make up for it. Moving to the NL isn't going to change that, and he's not suddenly going to become league average just because he doesn't face a DH. He's got to become a better pitcher than he is now.

But the pitcher he is now is the one the Pirates are trading for. The idea that they should pay for a league-average pitcher when he's spent two years at ~85 ERA+ doesn't make sense.

It's possible if you consider park factors (NYS vs. PNC) and a completely unsustainable (even for NYS) 17.0 % HR/FB.

[gregzzy22]

For the last two years, A. J. Burnett has pitched well over a full run above league average ERA. The league average ERA in the NL was .15 - .20 runs less than in the AL - taking all those adjustments and variables into account. AJ doesn't suddenly go from a 5.15 pitcher to a 4.00 pitcher just because he goes into the NL.

Remember, it wasn't long ago that AJ was a league average pitcher in the AL. Since then he got worse. He's a 2-pitch pitcher who's lost a few mph off his fastball, and who doesn't have the command to make up for it. Moving to the NL isn't going to change that, and he's not suddenly going to become league average just because he doesn't face a DH. He's got to become a better pitcher than he is now.

But the pitcher he is now is the one the Pirates are trading for. The idea that they should pay for a league-average pitcher when he's spent two years at ~85 ERA+ doesn't make sense.

Uh, yes he does

[Shadoux101]

Uh, yes he does

12345

[Shadoux101]

Best case scenario would be AJ for Hafner, considering that if we trade him to the Pirates, the most likely candidate for DH against RHP would be Damon, Matsui or Ibanez. I'd much rather have Hafner, as the others mentioned don't come close to his splits.

Being that the Indians probably won't do an even swap, our choice might be limited to the remaining three. In that case, I'd prefer Damon, partly for sentimental reasons. Ibanez doesn't give you much more in the power dept and Damon at least gives you some speed on the bases.

Maybe for this year. It really depends on the trade.. maybe we get some valuable (time will tell) pospects and sign a FA (Damon) who kills it next year with the savings.

Hafner can't stay healthy being DH. Most likely, he wont be healthy no matter what. If the Yankees could get a full year or + out of PRONK (lolmichaelkay) I think they'd have to seriously consider it. But he can't and they shouldn't.

Getting Damon with the savings plus prospects is the better option. Damon is proven on many levels including staying healthy and producing. Coming back to the Yankees and the Stadium will only improve his numbers/spilts.

[Gigi Buffon]

Maybe for this year. It really depends on the trade.. maybe we get some valuable (time will tell) pospects and sign a FA (Damon) who kills it next year with the savings.

Hafner can't stay healthy being DH. Most likely, he wont be healthy no matter what. If the Yankees could get a full year or + out of PRONK (lolmichaelkay) I think they'd have to seriously consider it. But he can't and they shouldn't.

Getting Damon with the savings plus prospects is the better option. Damon is proven on many levels including staying healthy and producing. Coming back to the Yankees and the Stadium will only improve his numbers/spilts.

Agreed. I want Damon back. Can't fathom the interest in Ibanez.

[JL25and3]

It's possible if you consider park factors (NYS vs. PNC) and a completely unsustainable (even for NYS) 17.0 % HR/FB.

The NYS park factor is already included in his 86 ERA+. His HR/FB ratio was 12.4% last year, which is unsustainable, but 9.1% the year before when he was just as bad. 9.1% isn't that far off his career average.

These are still nothing close to reasons that Pittsburgh should pay for the league-average pitcher you hypothesize. Again: AJ turned into a lousy pitcher because he lost velocity off his fastball and doesn't have the command to make up for it. What about that do you expect to change, and how?

Edit: Baseball-reference.com has a tool that can translate statistics by year, league and ballpark. Burnett's 2011 stats, translated to Pittsburgh in the NL, would give him a 4.79 ERA. That's still a very long way from league average.

[1936-1939JoeNLou]

A source said Tuesday that the Indians and Angels checked in about Burnett, with Cleveland offering Travis Hafner as part of its proposal. The source said the Angels made what the Yankees considered to be an "even better offer," but Burnett has a limited no-trade clause that lists 10 teams, including the Angels

Read more: http://www.canada.com/sports/Pirates...#ixzz1mTBPS7s7

Woah, apparently it was Cleveland who offered Travis Hafner. Also interesting to note that the Angels "have an even better offer".

[NelsonMuntz]

Woah, apparently it was Cleveland who offered Travis Hafner. Also interesting to note that the Angels "have an even better offer".

Interesting. Would explain why Cashman is in no rush to accept Pittsburgh's current offer. In any event, I feel confident that we've seen the last of AJ Burnett in a Yankee uniform.

[apalradio]

Woah, apparently it was Cleveland who offered Travis Hafner. Also interesting to note that the Angels "have an even better offer".

I read somewhere last night that LA had Abreu on the table and that NY had a major interest in bringing him back as the DH. Maybe Cashman's working on a three way deal that would send AJ somewhere else to avoid the whole west coast thing, and then get Abreu back from the Angels in some kind of package. Wondering if Damon's still a better option myself.

[tranquility]

Source tells ESPN deal only 50-50- to be done. Pitt has to improve prospects or increase cash. http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/stor...de-sources-say

I would asssume that, conversely, the Yankees would need to reduce demands for prospects or contribute more cash.

It's a matter of perspective.

[wang+cano=future]

According to Rosenthal, the Pirates and Yanks are at an impasse.

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/m...?new_post=true


I have a feeling the Yanks will blink first on this one. At this point Burnett has to be traded given his mental fragility plus it sounds like the Indians are out, the Angels aren't an option, and the mystery fourth team isn't seriously interested.

[Yankeesfan924]

Ugh, is he gone yet?

[jnewmark]

Ugh, is he gone yet?

LOL. Let me know when it's over !

[snapple]

We could have had Abreu. Ugh

[just-blaze]

The NYS park factor is already included in his 86 ERA+.

Right, but he would be moving to PNC. ERA+ is league specific.

His HR/FB ratio was 12.4% last year, which is unsustainable

It was 17 % His career is 11.3 %

Edit: Baseball-reference.com has a tool that can translate statistics by year, league and ballpark. Burnett's 2011 stats, translated to Pittsburgh in the NL, would give him a 4.79 ERA. That's still a very long way from league average.

Ok, so now account for a drop in HR/FB rates and now its possible that his ERA is in the low 4's.