NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

[snapple]

I figured this would be a fun and resourceful way for us to discuss what we expect from the players we currently have for the 2012 season. Plus, it's getting slow around here and I love talking baseball.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Ivan Nova will have a wonderful sophomore season, going 18-8 in 32 starts, solidifying himself as our #2 starter.

[snapple]

I figured this would be a fun and resourceful way for us to discuss what we expect from the players we currently have for the 2012 season. Plus, it's getting slow around here and I love talking baseball.

Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
Cano .340/28 HR
A-Rod .300/30 HR
Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
Swish .270/24 HR
Montero .320/27 HR
Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
(I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
(Hoping Noesi will)

MFIKY - Won't suck
Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
Mo - Is it even worth going into?


I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

*MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
*CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

[TheInfallibleOne]

Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
Cano .340/28 HR
A-Rod .300/30 HR
Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
Swish .270/24 HR
Montero .320/27 HR
Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
(I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
(Hoping Noesi will)

MFIKY - Won't suck
Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
Mo - Is it even worth going into?


I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

*MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
*CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

Martin isn't hitting 25 HR and Gardner CERTAINLY isnt hitting double digits unless they move the fences in....

[Yankeesfan924]

Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
Cano .340/28 HR
A-Rod .300/30 HR
Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
Swish .270/24 HR
Montero .320/27 HR
Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
(I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
(Hoping Noesi will)

MFIKY - Won't suck
Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
Mo - Is it even worth going into?


I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

*MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
*CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

What are you drinking, and where can I get some?

[yankee82093]

Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
Cano .340/28 HR
A-Rod .300/30 HR
Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
Swish .270/24 HR
Montero .320/27 HR
Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
(I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
(Hoping Noesi will)

MFIKY - Won't suck
Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
Mo - Is it even worth going into?


I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

*MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
*CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

You don't think these are generally optimistic?

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

Montero - .346/.412 49 HR
Gardner - .299/.478 9 HR, 73 SB
A-Rod - .282/.378 38 HR, 169 RBIs
Joba - 16-5 3.34 ERA
AJ Burnett - 0-4 189.00 ERA
Cano will get hurt, sadly enough, and only play in 40something games

[hellonewman]

Jaret Wright 20-3, 3.04 ERA Cy Young

Mo' Nut: One smoove brotha

[matt2351]

Cashman must have invited a bunch of you all over to his place for an objective pipe party.

[dabomb2045]

Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
Cano .340/28 HR
A-Rod .300/30 HR
Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
Swish .270/24 HR
Montero .320/27 HR
Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
(I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
(Hoping Noesi will)

MFIKY - Won't suck
Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
Mo - Is it even worth going into?


I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

*MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
*CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

I cant tell if this is sarcastic or not

[snapple]

Wishful thinking.

I thought Martin had 20+ HR this last season?

[yankee82093]

nope. 18

[TheInfallibleOne]

Montero - .346/.412 49 HR
Gardner - .299/.478 9 HR, 73 SB
A-Rod - .282/.378 38 HR, 169 RBIs
Joba - 16-5 3.34 ERA
AJ Burnett - 0-4 189.00 ERA
Cano will get hurt, sadly enough, and only play in 40something games

If you're going to be sarcastic at least pick values that NONE of us would believe...

[thepootamis13]

Jeter .280 13hrs 73rbis
Granderson.277 37hrs 94rbis
Cano 3.320 35hrs 107rbis
Arod .290 31hrs 125rbis(if he is healthy all year)
Texeria .290 34hrs 117rbis
Swisher .265 29hrs 77rbis
Montero .285 27hrs 82rbis
Martin .260 16hrs 64rbis
Gardner .270 3hrs 46rbis

Sabathia 19-3 3.55
Nova 17-8 4.00
Burnett 16-9 4.20
Hughes 14-6 3.77
Garcia 9-9 4.78

then
the bullpen ranks 2nd for the year
Montero wins rookie of the year beating out Moore
Yankees get revenge with a 3 game sweep of the Tigers in Division series
Yankees beat the Rangers in 6 games(Cano wins ALCS MVP)
Yankees sweep the Braves and win #28 (Texeria wins WS MVP)

[The Comic Book Guy]

Jeter: 145GP, .285/.340/.385
Granderson: 155GP, .270/.360/.510
Cano: 160GP, .315/.360/.540
ARod: 135GP, .280/.370/.525
Teixeira: 155GP, .280/.375/.530
Swisher: 150GP, .260/.370/.490
Montero: 140GP, .275/.340/.480
Martin: 120GP, .260/.345/.420
Gardner: 150GP, .290/.375/.400

Sabathia: 235IP, 140 ERA+
Nova: 190IP, 100 ERA+
AJ: 190IP, 85 ERA+
Garcia: 150IP, 95 ERA+
Hughes: 150IP, 90 ERA+

[JfromJersey]

In relation to last year:

Jeter - a little worse
Grandy - a little worse
Cano - better (maybe a career year)
A-Rod - better (and I'm usually a pessimist)
Tex - better
Montero - good, but not as good as expected
Swish - the same
Martin - a little better
Gardner - the same

CC - a little better
Nova - a little worse
AJ - the same
Garcia - a little worse
Hughes - better
the pen - about the same

[Gusto]

In relation to last year:

Jeter - a little worse
Grandy - a little worse
Cano - better (maybe a career year)
A-Rod - better (and I'm usually a pessimist)
Tex - better
Montero - good, but not as good as expected
Swish - the same
Martin - a little better
Gardner - the same

CC - a little better
Nova - a little worse
AJ - the same
Garcia - a little worse
Hughes - better
the pen - about the same

very close to what I think.

Martin will have a better year than any of his last three
Hughes will be significantly better than last year ... not 2010 but much better than 2011
Garcia could be more than a little worse, but he's welcome to prove me wrong.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Sabathia: 235IP, 140 ERA+
Nova: 190IP, 100 ERA+
AJ: 190IP, 85 ERA+
Garcia: 150IP, 95 ERA+
Hughes: 150IP, 90 ERA+

With these IP numbers, you are basically saying that we will only get approximately 128 starts out of these five pitchers, assuming six IP per start.

Where are the other 34 starts coming from?

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


EDIT - my math was incorrect. Please disregard the above.

[snapple]

With these IP numbers, you are basically saying that we will only get approximately 128 starts out of these five pitchers, assuming six IP per start.

Where are the other 34 starts coming from?

Noesi

[The Comic Book Guy]

With these IP numbers, you are basically saying that we will only get approximately 128 starts out of these five pitchers, assuming six IP per start.

Where are the other 34 starts coming from?

235+190+190+150+150 = 915

915/6 = 152.5

But yeah, at this point, Noesi, Phelps, Warren et al.

[longtimeyankeefan]

235+190+190+150+150 = 915

915/6 = 152.5

But yeah, at this point, Noesi, Phelps, Warren et al.

My bad - I missed the second 150 IP in doing my math.

That being the case, I would be happy with your IP projections. However, your ERA+ predictions make me wonder what you think the teams record would be in those 153 starts.

[The Comic Book Guy]

My bad - I missed the second 150 IP in doing my math.

That being the case, I would be happy with your IP projections. However, your ERA+ predictions make me wonder what you think the teams record would be in those 153 starts.

Let's say you set the ballpark-adjusted lgERA at 4.3 (it was 4.33 in '10 and 4.43 last year). I figure those projections line the starting five up for 433 ER in 915IP. Figure in unearned runs, that puts you at about 465 runs allowed, let's say through 150 GS. Now let's assume there's no improvement or drop-off in the other 12 games started by the depth guys, and you're looking at 73IP, 37 runs allowed. So in total for the starters, 988IP, 502 runs allowed.

In the 470 or so IP pitched by the bullpen, let's be optimistic and assume that they perform at the same level as last year. So that's 180 runs allowed. In total we're looking at 682 runs allowed by the pitching staff. A bit worse than last year (657), but slightly better than 2010 (693). That sounds about right.

That doesn't sound so bad, but it's also being pretty optimistic. So we'll see. If things go well, I don't doubt this team can win 95-100 games. But if unexpected things start to go wrong, I'm not sure what the margin of error is for this team.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Let's say you set the ballpark-adjusted lgERA at 4.3 (it was 4.33 in '10 and 4.43 last year). I figure those projections line the starting five up for 433 ER in 915IP. Figure in unearned runs, that puts you at about 465 runs allowed, let's say through 150 GS. Now let's assume there's no improvement or drop-off in the other 12 games started by the depth guys, and you're looking at 73IP, 37 runs allowed. So in total for the starters, 988IP, 502 runs allowed.

In the 470 or so IP pitched by the bullpen, let's be optimistic and assume that they perform at the same level as last year. So that's 180 runs allowed. In total we're looking at 682 runs allowed by the pitching staff. A bit worse than last year (657), but slightly better than 2010 (693). That sounds about right.

That doesn't sound so bad, but it's also being pretty optimistic. So we'll see. If things go well, I don't doubt this team can win 95-100 games. But if unexpected things start to go wrong, I'm not sure what the margin of error is for this team.

I have to disagree with you - your ERA+ predictions show a decrease for every pitcher except Hughes

Sabathia 2011 ERA+ = 147, you project 140
AJ 2011 = 86, you project 85
Garcia 2011 = 122, you project 95
Nova 2011 = 119, you project 100
Hughes 2011 = 77, you project 90 (Colon, who he essentially replaces, was 111)

Given that you are projecting a decline in ERA+ for three of our five starters, in some cases significant (Garcia, Nova & Hughes), I have difficulty believing that such a performance would get us much above 88 wins.

Interesting discussion, though.

[hellonewman]

In relation to last year:

Jeter - a little worse
Grandy - a little worse
Cano - better (maybe a career year)
A-Rod - better (and I'm usually a pessimist)
Tex - better
Montero - good, but not as good as expected
Swish - the same
Martin - a little better
Gardner - the same

CC - a little better
Nova - a little worse
AJ - the same
Garcia - a little worse
Hughes - better
the pen - about the same

Agree mostly, I'll differ on these:

Martin - the same
Gardner - a little better

CC - the same
Garcia - much worse
Hughes - a little better but far from great
the pen - a little better (Robertson probably won't be quite as incredible, but I expect improvement from Soriano, and Joba is a mid-season reinforcement. Plus there's always a chance they find a good LOOGY, didn't really have one last year).

[Tupac]

Probably everyone around the same. Give or take some being a little better. Some being a little worse.