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  1. #1

    NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    I figured this would be a fun and resourceful way for us to discuss what we expect from the players we currently have for the 2012 season. Plus, it's getting slow around here and I love talking baseball.

  2. #2
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Ivan Nova will have a wonderful sophomore season, going 18-8 in 32 starts, solidifying himself as our #2 starter.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  3. #3

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    I figured this would be a fun and resourceful way for us to discuss what we expect from the players we currently have for the 2012 season. Plus, it's getting slow around here and I love talking baseball.
    Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
    Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
    Cano .340/28 HR
    A-Rod .300/30 HR
    Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
    Swish .270/24 HR
    Montero .320/27 HR
    Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
    Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

    CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
    Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
    Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
    AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
    (I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
    (Hoping Noesi will)

    MFIKY - Won't suck
    Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
    Mo - Is it even worth going into?


    I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

    *MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
    *CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

  4. #4

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
    Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
    Cano .340/28 HR
    A-Rod .300/30 HR
    Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
    Swish .270/24 HR
    Montero .320/27 HR
    Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
    Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags


    CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
    Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
    Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
    AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
    (I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
    (Hoping Noesi will)

    MFIKY - Won't suck
    Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
    Mo - Is it even worth going into?


    I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

    *MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
    *CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.
    Martin isn't hitting 25 HR and Gardner CERTAINLY isnt hitting double digits unless they move the fences in....
    Mariano Rivera was so great he was able to close a Denny's.

  5. #5
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
    Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
    Cano .340/28 HR
    A-Rod .300/30 HR
    Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
    Swish .270/24 HR
    Montero .320/27 HR
    Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
    Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

    CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
    Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
    Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
    AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
    (I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
    (Hoping Noesi will)

    MFIKY - Won't suck
    Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
    Mo - Is it even worth going into?


    I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

    *MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
    *CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.
    What are you drinking, and where can I get some?
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  6. #6

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
    Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
    Cano .340/28 HR
    A-Rod .300/30 HR
    Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
    Swish .270/24 HR
    Montero .320/27 HR
    Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
    Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

    CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
    Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
    Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
    AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
    (I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
    (Hoping Noesi will)

    MFIKY - Won't suck
    Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
    Mo - Is it even worth going into?


    I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

    *MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
    *CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.
    You don't think these are generally optimistic?

  7. #7

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Montero - .346/.412 49 HR
    Gardner - .299/.478 9 HR, 73 SB
    A-Rod - .282/.378 38 HR, 169 RBIs
    Joba - 16-5 3.34 ERA
    AJ Burnett - 0-4 189.00 ERA
    Cano will get hurt, sadly enough, and only play in 40something games
    like delv, but better

  8. #8
    1931-2011 hellonewman's Avatar
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Jaret Wright 20-3, 3.04 ERA Cy Young

    Mo' Nut: One smoove brotha

  9. #9
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Cashman must have invited a bunch of you all over to his place for an objective pipe party.

  10. #10
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    Jeter .310 BA/20 Bags
    Granderson .275 BA/33 HR
    Cano .340/28 HR
    A-Rod .300/30 HR
    Tex .290/42 HR *MVP
    Swish .270/24 HR
    Montero .320/27 HR
    Martin .265/25 HR/ 15-20 bags
    Gardner .280/14 HR/40 Bags

    CC 22-4, 2.60 ERA, 200+ IP, 212 K, 1.00 WHIP *CY
    Nova 13-7 3.34 ERA, average other stats i guess, except low K's
    Freddy Garcia 13-8, 3.61 ERA
    AJ 12-10, 4.12 ERA, 200 IP, 200 K's (who wouldn't sign up for this with AJ?)
    (I'm still not convinced Hughes is going to start)
    (Hoping Noesi will)

    MFIKY - Won't suck
    Houdini- Similar to last year except I want that WHIP to go waaaay down
    Mo - Is it even worth going into?


    I would have done OBP and stuff, but I'm not sure what those guys are historically, so I just did the stats I understand for the players off the top of my head.

    *MT25 wins MVP because he becomes the epitome of clutch and is the reason we win games. AKA, he shows up when we're losing instead of raking when we win.
    *CC wins Cy because people start to realize how much tougher the AL East as compared to the Twinkies, LOLyals and Indians.

    I cant tell if this is sarcastic or not

  11. #11

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Wishful thinking.

    I thought Martin had 20+ HR this last season?

  12. #12

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    nope. 18

  13. #13

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by SatchelPaigeYankee View Post
    Montero - .346/.412 49 HR
    Gardner - .299/.478 9 HR, 73 SB
    A-Rod - .282/.378 38 HR, 169 RBIs
    Joba - 16-5 3.34 ERA
    AJ Burnett - 0-4 189.00 ERA
    Cano will get hurt, sadly enough, and only play in 40something games
    If you're going to be sarcastic at least pick values that NONE of us would believe...
    Mariano Rivera was so great he was able to close a Denny's.

  14. #14

    Thumbs up Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Jeter .280 13hrs 73rbis
    Granderson.277 37hrs 94rbis
    Cano 3.320 35hrs 107rbis
    Arod .290 31hrs 125rbis(if he is healthy all year)
    Texeria .290 34hrs 117rbis
    Swisher .265 29hrs 77rbis
    Montero .285 27hrs 82rbis
    Martin .260 16hrs 64rbis
    Gardner .270 3hrs 46rbis

    Sabathia 19-3 3.55
    Nova 17-8 4.00
    Burnett 16-9 4.20
    Hughes 14-6 3.77
    Garcia 9-9 4.78

    then
    the bullpen ranks 2nd for the year
    Montero wins rookie of the year beating out Moore
    Yankees get revenge with a 3 game sweep of the Tigers in Division series
    Yankees beat the Rangers in 6 games(Cano wins ALCS MVP)
    Yankees sweep the Braves and win #28 (Texeria wins WS MVP)

  15. #15
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Jeter: 145GP, .285/.340/.385
    Granderson: 155GP, .270/.360/.510
    Cano: 160GP, .315/.360/.540
    ARod: 135GP, .280/.370/.525
    Teixeira: 155GP, .280/.375/.530
    Swisher: 150GP, .260/.370/.490
    Montero: 140GP, .275/.340/.480
    Martin: 120GP, .260/.345/.420
    Gardner: 150GP, .290/.375/.400

    Sabathia: 235IP, 140 ERA+
    Nova: 190IP, 100 ERA+
    AJ: 190IP, 85 ERA+
    Garcia: 150IP, 95 ERA+
    Hughes: 150IP, 90 ERA+

  16. #16
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    In relation to last year:

    Jeter - a little worse
    Grandy - a little worse
    Cano - better (maybe a career year)
    A-Rod - better (and I'm usually a pessimist)
    Tex - better
    Montero - good, but not as good as expected
    Swish - the same
    Martin - a little better
    Gardner - the same

    CC - a little better
    Nova - a little worse
    AJ - the same
    Garcia - a little worse
    Hughes - better
    the pen - about the same
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  17. #17

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JfromJersey View Post
    In relation to last year:

    Jeter - a little worse
    Grandy - a little worse
    Cano - better (maybe a career year)
    A-Rod - better (and I'm usually a pessimist)
    Tex - better
    Montero - good, but not as good as expected
    Swish - the same
    Martin - a little better
    Gardner - the same

    CC - a little better
    Nova - a little worse
    AJ - the same
    Garcia - a little worse
    Hughes - better
    the pen - about the same
    very close to what I think.

    Martin will have a better year than any of his last three
    Hughes will be significantly better than last year ... not 2010 but much better than 2011
    Garcia could be more than a little worse, but he's welcome to prove me wrong.
    “Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener.”—Billy Martin

  18. #18
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The Comic Book Guy View Post
    Sabathia: 235IP, 140 ERA+
    Nova: 190IP, 100 ERA+
    AJ: 190IP, 85 ERA+
    Garcia: 150IP, 95 ERA+
    Hughes: 150IP, 90 ERA+
    With these IP numbers, you are basically saying that we will only get approximately 128 starts out of these five pitchers, assuming six IP per start.

    Where are the other 34 starts coming from?

    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    EDIT - my math was incorrect. Please disregard the above.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  19. #19

    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    With these IP numbers, you are basically saying that we will only get approximately 128 starts out of these five pitchers, assuming six IP per start.

    Where are the other 34 starts coming from?
    Noesi

  20. #20
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    With these IP numbers, you are basically saying that we will only get approximately 128 starts out of these five pitchers, assuming six IP per start.

    Where are the other 34 starts coming from?
    235+190+190+150+150 = 915

    915/6 = 152.5

    But yeah, at this point, Noesi, Phelps, Warren et al.

  21. #21
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The Comic Book Guy View Post
    235+190+190+150+150 = 915

    915/6 = 152.5

    But yeah, at this point, Noesi, Phelps, Warren et al.
    My bad - I missed the second 150 IP in doing my math.

    That being the case, I would be happy with your IP projections. However, your ERA+ predictions make me wonder what you think the teams record would be in those 153 starts.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  22. #22
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    My bad - I missed the second 150 IP in doing my math.

    That being the case, I would be happy with your IP projections. However, your ERA+ predictions make me wonder what you think the teams record would be in those 153 starts.
    Let's say you set the ballpark-adjusted lgERA at 4.3 (it was 4.33 in '10 and 4.43 last year). I figure those projections line the starting five up for 433 ER in 915IP. Figure in unearned runs, that puts you at about 465 runs allowed, let's say through 150 GS. Now let's assume there's no improvement or drop-off in the other 12 games started by the depth guys, and you're looking at 73IP, 37 runs allowed. So in total for the starters, 988IP, 502 runs allowed.

    In the 470 or so IP pitched by the bullpen, let's be optimistic and assume that they perform at the same level as last year. So that's 180 runs allowed. In total we're looking at 682 runs allowed by the pitching staff. A bit worse than last year (657), but slightly better than 2010 (693). That sounds about right.

    That doesn't sound so bad, but it's also being pretty optimistic. So we'll see. If things go well, I don't doubt this team can win 95-100 games. But if unexpected things start to go wrong, I'm not sure what the margin of error is for this team.

  23. #23
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by The Comic Book Guy View Post
    Let's say you set the ballpark-adjusted lgERA at 4.3 (it was 4.33 in '10 and 4.43 last year). I figure those projections line the starting five up for 433 ER in 915IP. Figure in unearned runs, that puts you at about 465 runs allowed, let's say through 150 GS. Now let's assume there's no improvement or drop-off in the other 12 games started by the depth guys, and you're looking at 73IP, 37 runs allowed. So in total for the starters, 988IP, 502 runs allowed.

    In the 470 or so IP pitched by the bullpen, let's be optimistic and assume that they perform at the same level as last year. So that's 180 runs allowed. In total we're looking at 682 runs allowed by the pitching staff. A bit worse than last year (657), but slightly better than 2010 (693). That sounds about right.

    That doesn't sound so bad, but it's also being pretty optimistic. So we'll see. If things go well, I don't doubt this team can win 95-100 games. But if unexpected things start to go wrong, I'm not sure what the margin of error is for this team.
    I have to disagree with you - your ERA+ predictions show a decrease for every pitcher except Hughes

    Sabathia 2011 ERA+ = 147, you project 140
    AJ 2011 = 86, you project 85
    Garcia 2011 = 122, you project 95
    Nova 2011 = 119, you project 100
    Hughes 2011 = 77, you project 90 (Colon, who he essentially replaces, was 111)

    Given that you are projecting a decline in ERA+ for three of our five starters, in some cases significant (Garcia, Nova & Hughes), I have difficulty believing that such a performance would get us much above 88 wins.

    Interesting discussion, though.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  24. #24
    1931-2011 hellonewman's Avatar
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JfromJersey View Post
    In relation to last year:

    Jeter - a little worse
    Grandy - a little worse
    Cano - better (maybe a career year)
    A-Rod - better (and I'm usually a pessimist)
    Tex - better
    Montero - good, but not as good as expected
    Swish - the same
    Martin - a little better
    Gardner - the same

    CC - a little better
    Nova - a little worse
    AJ - the same
    Garcia - a little worse
    Hughes - better
    the pen - about the same
    Agree mostly, I'll differ on these:

    Martin - the same
    Gardner - a little better

    CC - the same
    Garcia - much worse
    Hughes - a little better but far from great
    the pen - a little better (Robertson probably won't be quite as incredible, but I expect improvement from Soriano, and Joba is a mid-season reinforcement. Plus there's always a chance they find a good LOOGY, didn't really have one last year).

  25. #25
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    Re: NYYF 2012 Player Prediction Thread

    Probably everyone around the same. Give or take some being a little better. Some being a little worse.

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