Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

[jonhenry]

while i think nova is built better then wang, i dont see him having the kind of stuff that will give him a great lengthy career.... the best thing that happened to him was the yankees not expecting him to be a great young arm and just threw him in and let him pitch unlike what they did with joba, hughes, kennedy etc.... the yanks biggest problem is baby the crap out of these guys and not letting em pitch

[THEBOSS84]

Looks like "Sophomore Jinx" was the correct choice.

[longtimeyankeefan]

My guess is that he will develop into a solid #3 starter this season.

I am going to guess 30 GS, 190 IP, 14-9, 3.94 ERA

Yankees go 18-12 in his GS.

I can't say as I was far off - as of today, his numbers are 12-8, with the Yankees 5-3 in games in which he has a no decision, making the Yankees 17-11 in games that Nova has started.

Where I was off is his ERA - 5.02 is cause for giving an annus horribilis speech. I certainly thought he would be better than that number. He has benefited by the 5 runs per start support that the Yankees have given him.

[Sixty one]

I think he has the talent and ability to be a very good and productive major league pitcher. However, I think he needs to find a way to get him mentally in the game. He makes too many mental mistakes. Perhaps he isn't expierenced enough to make the decisions or tough enough to believe in his talent and therefore, finds himself in a hole not finding the location he needs to get batters out.

[Bub]

We know he has the stuff to be a big winner. I think he'll eventually get over the problems he's facing right now, and he's young enough to have minor issues over the next couple of years and still have a big career. I hope the team is patient...I'd hate to see him figure everything out at age 28 with another team and be a 20-game winner for the next 5 years after.

[d32123]

I appear to have made an accurate prediction.

[35Knucklecurve]

The potential to be a solid starter is definitely there. Maybe struggling this year will actually help him in the future. If you have success out of the gate, sometimes you get over-confident and he appeared to be very confident on the mound. Hitters became more familar with his delivery and pitch selection and made adjustments. Once the season is over and he has time to evaluate everything, I hope he will be able to take things apart and put them back together so that the pieces fit again.

[flymick24]

nova will have a great bounce-back year in 2013


for another team

[Yankee Tripper]

I appear to have made an accurate prediction.

not really

My bet is on back of the rotation innings eater. To expect him to be a #2 is kind of out there with his K rate.

your prediction was based on his pedestrian K-rate in the 5.0 - 5.5 per 9 range. He increased it to a more than respectable 8.1 this year so while he was it back of the rotation innings eater, it wasn't for the reason you listed.

[THEBOSS84]

I appear to have made an accurate prediction.

[jcarey]

His xFIP is better this year than last. SIERA at 3.84, also better than last year.

Confusing.

[flymick24]

those advanced metrics masturbate all over K rates, and his strikeouts/9 did indeed go up by almost 3, which is pretty drastic, while his BB rate stayed at about the same

too bad his command was crap this season... the spike in velo might be the culprit

[Nome]

Next years starters
CC, Nova, Phelps, Pineda, and Hughes. Pettitte in reserve to protect against injuries

Nova belongs on our team. No other one.

Andy

[JohnnyDamonfan]

I truly believe he has the talent. I have seen the guy since day fricken 1. And I always believed he had the talent.We need this guy, We need Hughes, We need Pineda, we need all these guys. I just heard that Banuelous had/or is going to have TJS done yesterday from my phone. When something like that happens to our number 1 pitching prospect we need these guys.But, if someone held a gun to my head right now and said "Nova or Hughes? Who gets traded for a good young at bat"? At that point I'd probably go with Hughes. As of right now I want Nova on our team slightly more then Hughes. Only very slightly though.

[sweet_lou_14]

I have seen the guy since day fricken 1.

I believe his major-league debut featured him loading the bases in the first inning against the Blue Jays, and then working out of it. Something about his makeup impressed me from the start.

Unfortunately his stubbornness seems to be a double-edged sword. He has found ways to really make it work for him -- i.e. he is more capable of bearing down and trusting his stuff than a lot of young pitchers -- but it has also been an impediment at times.

He's a player I really root for to succeed.

[jenks]

Next years starters
CC, Nova, Phelps, Pineda, and Hughes. Pettitte in reserve to protect against injuries

Nova belongs on our team. No other one.

Andy

Personally think you sign Kuroda for another year if you can. CC on the DL twice this year scares me. Need at least 7 potential starters going into next season.

[Nome]

I truly believe he has the talent. I have seen the guy since day fricken 1. And I always believed he had the talent.We need this guy, We need Hughes, We need Pineda, we need all these guys. I just heard that Banuelous had/or is going to have TJS done yesterday from my phone. When something like that happens to our number 1 pitching prospect we need these guys.But, if someone held a gun to my head right now and said "Nova or Hughes? Who gets traded for a good young at bat"? At that point I'd probably go with Hughes. As of right now I want Nova on our team slightly more then Hughes. Only very slightly though.

Why not both? Both come cheap and fit in with the Steinbrenners need to get the payroll under $189 Mil in 2014
Both are still young and there is plenty of precedence where pitchers took many years before they reached their potential (Koefax, Nolan Ryan for starters)

Andy

[longtimeyankeefan]

Personally think you sign Kuroda for another year if you can. CC on the DL twice this year scares me. Need at least 7 potential starters going into next season.

I am with you on Kuroda if he can be had for the right price. You don't know what you are going to get with Pineda coming back from injury, Pettitte will be another year old and you pointed out CC's injury problems this year.

On the other hand, you also have Adam Warren at SWB who almost made the team out of ST and some arms that were at Trenton this season that should move to AAA next season

Anyone got a scouting report on Vidal Nuno (20GS, 9-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP at Trenton)?. He's not big, but he is a LHP.

You could re-sign Ramon Ortiz, who had a decent year at AAA, but most likely will get a ML contract from someone.

[Carsten Charles]

Ramon Ortiz won't be getting a major league contract from anyone. There's not a market for 40 year old pitchers with no big league success.

As for the point, going into the season, Nova should be no more than the 6th starter next year. He was pure garbage this year and made more starts than he should have. He was a big reason that we almost blew the division.

[Nome]

Ramon Ortiz won't be getting a major league contract from anyone. There's not a market for 40 year old pitchers with no big league success.

As for the point, going into the season, Nova should be no more than the 6th starter next year. He was pure garbage this year and made more starts than he should have. He was a big reason that we almost blew the division.

I wouldn't go so far as to call his season "pure Garbage". The worst I would say about his performance is that it was the Sophamore Jinx. He has to much talent not to succeed and I am confident that he will bounce back and will be a mainstay of (hopefully ours) a pitching staff. Don't write him off on the basis of an off year.
Saying that he was a big reason that we almost blew the division is a tad harsh. He was, afterall 12-8 for us and pitched in 28 games. Before the all star game he was our team leader with a 10-3 record. You can equally say that because of his performance in the first half of the year he was one of the major reasons we won the division. It's all in how you look at it, and I prefer to look at it positively


Andy

[THEBOSS84]

I wouldn't go so far as to call his season "pure Garbage". The worst I would say about his performance is that it was the Sophamore Jinx. He has to much talent not to succeed and I am confident that he will bounce back and will be a mainstay of (hopefully ours) a pitching staff. Don't write him off on the basis of an off year.
Saying that he was a big reason that we almost blew the division is a tad harsh. He was, afterall 12-8 for us and pitched in 28 games. Before the all star game he was our team leader with a 10-3 record. You can equally say that because of his performance in the first half of the year he was one of the major reasons we won the division. It's all in how you look at it, and I prefer to look at it positively


Andy

He finished with the 7th worst ERA+ in the AL.

[Carsten Charles]

I wouldn't go so far as to call his season "pure Garbage". The worst I would say about his performance is that it was the Sophamore Jinx. He has to much talent not to succeed and I am confident that he will bounce back and will be a mainstay of (hopefully ours) a pitching staff. Don't write him off on the basis of an off year.
Saying that he was a big reason that we almost blew the division is a tad harsh. He was, afterall 12-8 for us and pitched in 28 games. Before the all star game he was our team leader with a 10-3 record. You can equally say that because of his performance in the first half of the year he was one of the major reasons we won the division. It's all in how you look at it, and I prefer to look at it positively


Andy

By his performance in the first half, do you mean his ERA over 5 in April and May?

He had one of the worst ERAs and OPS against in the league and allowed the most extra base hits in franchise history even though he had a DL stint.

Win/loss records means nothing. He was terrible in 5 out of the 6 months.

He was garbage. There's no other way of looking at it.

[longtimeyankeefan]

Win/loss records means nothing. He was terrible in 5 out of the 6 months.

I absolutely love the absurdity of this comment - I see it so often and I am flabbergasted at the audacity of this claim.

A pitcher's job is to keep his team in the game. That means giving up fewer runs than your team scores. It matters not if you do it with a 1.0 ERA or a 5.0 ERA - what matters is that you do it, period.

The Yankees were 18-10 in games started by Nova, so the Yankees won six of the eight games in which Nova had a ND - you have to give him some credit for that result as well.

What is true is, that the end of the season, Nova truly did stink. In five of his last eight starts, he left the game with the Yankees down by 4 runs or more - that clearly is NOT getting the job done.

[Benefactor]

I absolutely love the absurdity of this comment - I see it so often and I am flabbergasted at the audacity of this claim.

A pitcher's job is to keep his team in the game. That means giving up fewer runs than your team scores. It matters not if you do it with a 1.0 ERA or a 5.0 ERA - what matters is that you do it, period.

The Yankees were 18-10 in games started by Nova, so the Yankees won six of the eight games in which Nova had a ND - you have to give him some credit for that result as well.

What is true is, that the end of the season, Nova truly did stink. In five of his last eight starts, he left the game with the Yankees down by 4 runs or more - that clearly is NOT getting the job done.

And I love the absurdity of the comment you find absurd. He was 12th in the majors in run support. It was more like the Yankees were keeping Nova in the game rather than the other way around. Nova was brutal for most of the year with June being the lone exception. A 1.47 WHIP? That's teetering on the brink betwen the majors and minors. Not many pitchers can sustain that kind of WHIP and still pitch at the major league level. It could be just a down year or it could be something more. But whatever's the case, it's a very forgettable season for Nova.

[I Heart Jeter]

I think Nova has better stuff overall than Hughes