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  1. #1

    Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    (First of, let me say this - I really feel bad about what happened to Chien-Ming Wang. Boy, pitchers are not built like the way they used to be. )


    With that - I am hoping that Nova will survive and have an even better second year! He is a LONG way from being the next Andy Pettitte - but he has the drive and potential to be great!


    I just hope that Yankees Management does not messy up --- like the way they did with Joba! Damn it - I missed those fist pumps!
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  2. #2
    Yankee Stadium: 1923-2008 DiMaggio5CF's Avatar
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Alrighty then.
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  3. #3
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I'm betting sophomore jinx. I don't think he comes too close to repeating his 2011.

  4. #4

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Somwehere between what he did last year and how he pitched when he came up in '10. It would be awesome if he did a CMW 06-08 but that is a high standard to meet.

    If he stays healthy for the entire year, then I dont think any of us doubt that he will be a productive player though.
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    My guess is that he will develop into a solid #3 starter this season.

    I am going to guess 30 GS, 190 IP, 14-9, 3.94 ERA

    Yankees go 18-12 in his GS.
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  6. #6
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    My guess is that he will develop into a solid #3 starter this season.

    I am going to guess 30 GS, 190 IP, 14-9, 3.94 ERA

    Yankees go 18-12 in his GS.
    yeah my guess too
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  7. #7
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I'd expect a little less production from Nova this year. Guy's have had a good look and adjusted accordingly to his pitching. If Nova is going to become a quality reliable starter he's going to have to find new ways of getting hitter's out. He's got to keep learning and not settle for what he's already achieved. I believe he has that desire to take the next step, can't wait for next season!

    Big bonuses for Nova are having a stable club house and Russell Martin behind the plate. He'll do ok but his pitch count will probably go up working out how to beat guy's who've figured him out.
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  8. #8
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes the number two starter this coming year. However, I think it will depend on confidence level and the ability to adjust his pitching after major league hitters change their approach to his pitching. He definitely has the ability to do great things with NY.

  9. #9
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Is it at all possible for Nova to replicate, or at least come close to, what he did last season?
    Because I'll sign on for that!!!!
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  10. #10
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    My guess is that he will develop into a solid #3 starter this season.

    I am going to guess 30 GS, 190 IP, 14-9, 3.94 ERA

    Yankees go 18-12 in his GS.
    That wouldn't be dramatically different than the production CMW provided from 2006 - 2008.
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  11. #11
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Sophomore Jinx is my vote.
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  12. #12

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    He's got the look of Wang type of pitcher. Not one that will dominate a line-up but someone that is going to accumulate wins. I guess it depends on how the league adjusts to him and no one can really predict that, but considering that he only got better as the season went on and he got more experience that is a very a good sign.

  13. #13

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Quote Originally Posted by primetime714 View Post
    He's got the look of Wang type of pitcher. Not one that will dominate a line-up but someone that is going to accumulate wins. I guess it depends on how the league adjusts to him and no one can really predict that, but considering that he only got better as the season went on and he got more experience that is a very a good sign.
    He became a different pitcher after his minor league stint this past season. He came back and even looked like a more experienced guy. From his stature to his actually pitching, he looked great. Gave up a few runs? Didn't implode like AJ.

    I'm hoping Nova can keep it up. The more we grow our own pitching, the better.

  14. #14
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    He was very good in the second half so I don't think he'll slump too much next year. If he can do that and Hughes bounces back we can have a solid top 3 in the rotation.

  15. #15
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Next Andy Pettitte - I hope. This was a great season for him. Thought he should of fared better in the rookie of the yr. voting. Barring any set backs this kid can reach that same plateau as last season & The Yanks will be good shape at the top of their rotation.
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  16. #16
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    My bet is on back of the rotation innings eater. To expect him to be a #2 is kind of out there with his K rate.

  17. #17
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I like Nova's competitive drive as well as his maturity. But, he also has genuinely good stuff that professional hitters will make an effort to adjust to in 2012. Nova will be just fine and whatever struggles he endures he'll be a better pitcher for.

    My real concern is Hughes. Dead arm? WTF is it with promising, young Yank pitchers of late? Wang, Hughes, Joba and the cherry on top being Kennedy waiting to shut his mouth and improve until he is sent to AZ. I expect Ivan to struggle a bit, he's young. Hughes is the one who really needs an upswing in 2012.
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  18. #18

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I was listening to MLB Network on XM last night and the Baseball Prospectus guys don't think much of Nova and say he doesn't have a third pitch which prevents him from striking out enough guys to remain effective long-term. In short, they thought he was lucky last season.

  19. #19

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Quote Originally Posted by snapple View Post
    He became a different pitcher after his minor league stint this past season. He came back and even looked like a more experienced guy. From his stature to his actually pitching, he looked great. Gave up a few runs? Didn't implode like AJ.

    I'm hoping Nova can keep it up. The more we grow our own pitching, the better.
    Excellent observation.

    Typically pitchers falter the second/third times around the league, but Nova showed significant improvement during his encores. In the second half his BB/9 was down and his K's were up. Additionally, I see very little in his stat line for the full season that suggests he was lucky. His LOB% was middle of the pack while his HR/FB% & BABIP were above average. The BABIP isn't surprising given his 52.7 GB%.

    In 2012 he may give up a few more HR, but that could be countered by the reduced BB/9 & increased K/9 he posted in the second half. He also showed a greater ability to get through lineups multiple times in the second half. That may have been his biggest single improvement.
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  20. #20
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I see a lot of 'good' Fausto Carmona in Nova. As long as he doesn't have the implosion years that Carmona's been prone to, that could be a really good thing.

    I call BS on Nova lacking a third pitch, the slider and curveball are both above average offerings.

  21. #21
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Nova will be better in 2012 then in 2011.....
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  22. #22
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Quote Originally Posted by Yankees1962 View Post
    I was listening to MLB Network on XM last night and the Baseball Prospectus guys don't think much of Nova and say he doesn't have a third pitch which prevents him from striking out enough guys to remain effective long-term. In short, they thought he was lucky last season.
    he was really lucky last season... his strand rate was ridiculous, iirc (as was freddy garcia's) and totally unsustainable

    he's due for a correction next season, but even so, i can't see him putting up higher than a 4.00-4.20 era
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  23. #23
    Registered Account Jim Colyer's Avatar
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    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    I was impressed with Nova (as we all were).

  24. #24

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Quote Originally Posted by flymick24 View Post
    he was really lucky last season... his strand rate was ridiculous, iirc (as was freddy garcia's) and totally unsustainable

    he's due for a correction next season, but even so, i can't see him putting up higher than a 4.00-4.20 era
    His LOB% was 73.2%. AL average 71.8% & 70.7% for SP.
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  25. #25

    Re: Ivan Nova - The next Andy Pettitte? Chien-Ming Wang? or Sophmore Jinx?

    Yea, don't see much of anything that suggests a crazy amount of luck. He's probably a 100-105 ERA+ guy next year.

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