The Yankees' Chances at Missing the Playoffs

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

How likely is it that the Yanks could miss the playoffs?


Given some of the comments around here, you'd think we were on the SOSH boards

[-tz]

This poll is a jinx.

[sweet_lou_14]

Seriously stupid poll.

To sum up the choices:
(a) Say you are very concerned and/or pessimistic
(b) Say LOL

It's very, very unlikely that the Yankees will miss the playoffs for all the reasons cited in multiple threads. Look up the playoff odds online, etc. etc.

But it's not impossible. How hard is that to understand?

[awy]

ummm
i voted without reading.

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

Seriously stupid poll.

To sum up the choices:
(a) Say you are very concerned and/or pessimistic
(b) Say LOL

It's very, very unlikely that the Yankees will miss the playoffs for all the reasons cited in multiple threads. Look up the playoff odds online, etc. etc.

But it's not impossible. How hard is that to understand?

it was meant as a joke, but i could've put an option in between. something like "It's possible!" I can't edit it now tho.

[JSG]

oh, come on !!!!!!!!!!

chicken little, chicken little ..........

[grizy]

It is for all intents and purposes impossible.

The most interesting thing is we might be in an unique situation to spoil BoSox's season, letting Rays back into the playoffs if the BoSox suffers some tough losses near the end of the season.

Honestly, I'd love that.

[JSG]

The most interesting thing is we might be in an unique situation to spoil BoSox's season, letting Rays back into the playoffs if the BoSox suffers some tough losses near the end of the season.

Honestly, I'd love that.

well then, you might enjoy this one .... !! ..... http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/po...eason-to-worry

what's so odd is, on the numbers and strength of schedule, it should be a shoe-in for boston also -- 7 against Os vs 7 against NYY for TB. but boston pitching has been so atrocious, with no relief in sight until next week when buchholz may give it a shot, you never know. IE, even if TB does not better than splits vs us and mops up vs jays, they still might have a shot if we skunk boston and boston sputters vs Os.

EG, boston plays 3 games today and tomorrow, incl DH today (AAA weiland and former LAA pinata lackey) and solo game tomorrow (bedard, first game back after a few weeks in rehab or DL) ..... until they hit dry land w beckett on wednesday. rays off today, would be wild beyond belief if boston dropped the DH and they wound up tied in the L heading into tomorrow !!!

that said, as satisfying as it would be to tank boston's season, the rays have such solid pitching, i'm not sure i want to face them in october !! in any case, would like us to move a notch closer this afternoon with a W and ideally mo's # 602 over the american idle .......

[grizy]

Even if I agree (I don't) with the notion Rays have better pitching, their level of offense is so much lower than BoSox I rather take my chances against them.

[JSG]

Even if I agree (I don't) with the notion Rays have better pitching, their level of offense is so much lower than BoSox I rather take my chances against them.

well, i guess the "wild card" is buchholz making a shot to come back -- reportedly making a start next week. if the red sox get in, and buchholz is back -- fronting the rotation with beckett lester and buchholz + probably lackey or anyone else -- well, that's pretty solid. if buchholz can't make it back, going with lackey and bedard (or pick your AAA guy if bedard can't go), rotation starts to look pretty dicey. plus, on other fronts, youklis may be out for a while. maybe red sox will right the ship but now have the feel of a lumbering giant, suddenly vulnerable w big SP achilles heel.

[SatchelPaigeYankee]

Even if I agree (I don't) with the notion Rays have better pitching, their level of offense is so much lower than BoSox I rather take my chances against them.

I was intrigued by this, so I looked at some simple numbers:

Yanks-
ERA: 3.71
xFIP: 3.76
SIERA: 3.57

Rays-
ERA: 3.58
xFIP: 4.00
SIERA: 3.79

Whereas the sabrstats tell us that the Rays pitching has not been as good as they deserve to be, I gotta figure this is a matter not of "luck" but of the superior Rays defense. So, even if the Yankees "pitching" is better, the Rays total "run prevention" is pretty clearly better.

In 2010, the Rays' ERA was better than their SIERA and xFIP, as well.

[JfromJersey]

No, but we have too many games left with the Rays and Sox..so to say it's impossible would be stupid. We've all seen collapses in the recent past..Yankees in 04 ALCS, Mets a few years ago.
The Yankees would pretty much have to self destruct before our eyes for it to happen. I'm a natural pessimist, but not THAT much of a pessimist.

[Rocketman]

There's no real chance the Yankees are going to miss the playoffs. It's too late in the season and you have to expect the Yankees to win SOME games going forward.

[awy]

the rays added this moore guy who is pretty good. also has price and shields who are capable of dominating starts.

but if we take liberties with the 'what if's' it'll never get anywhere so let us just assume that everything evens out and the rays run differential is worse so they must be easier.

[JSG]

... so to say it's impossible would be stupid.

it's impossible.

OK, virtually impossible ..... you know, in the real world .........

PS http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?i=1

[aeromac76]

How likely is it the NY Mets come in, kidnap our players, and dress in our uniforms, and play the rest of our games?
Answer that, and you have the answer to the question of how likely we are to miss the playoffs.

[Big_E]

The Yankees have a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs right now.

[JSG]

The Yankees have a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs right now.

some interesting comps here: http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1

no question we're in, now let's just lock down the division and set things up properly.

[Big_E]

some interesting comps here: http://www.coolstandings.com/collapses.asp?i=1

no question we're in, now let's just lock down the division and set things up properly.

Similar article from a few years ago: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=6764

[effdamets]

I'll attempt to narrow it down here....

The chances of the Yankees, at this point, missing the playoffs, are slim and none.
And slim just left town.

[pleasepassthesoup]

They can pretty realistically clinch a playoff spot tomorrow, which would be pretty sweet. They can actually clinch the division tomorrow night in the unlikely scenario that every game goes the right way.

[Hitman23]

http://nooooooooooooooo.com/

[Rocketman]

And this thread can now be locked.

[JSG]

And this thread can now be locked.

...... sure, right after the two that voted we won't make it are tried, convicted, and defenestrated .......

[Dave Visbeck]

I think they'll make the playoffs.