The Red Sox Thread

[Snatch Catch]

You are clairvoyant:

Was this posted here last Friday?

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...gue-east-teams-

A scout's take: Which American League East teams are ready to separate themselves

"Which of the AL East teams is best set up to have success for the remainder of the season?"

With every one of the American League East teams over .500, and the Red Sox heading into a four-game series at Fenway Park against the first-place Yankees -- with a chance to readjust at some of the division's standings -- it seemed like a pertinent question to ask of an American League scout who has seen each of these teams extensively.


"I would have to say Boston," he said, "but this series is going to be huge."


Heading into this weekend, the Yankees are in first at 49-32, with the Orioles trailing by 5 1/2 games at 44-38. The Rays are seven games bak at 43-40, while the Red Sox (42-40) and Blue Jays (42-41) are bringing up the rear.


But some other numbers that those inside the world of Major League Baseball also take note of is run differential. That metric shows the Yankees have scored 54 more runs than they have given up, while the Red Sox are on the plus side by 50 runs. The Blue Jays also are on the plus side by 24 runs, while the Rays have scored exactly the same number of runs they have surrendered. The Orioles? A minus-28.


So, heading into the season's second half, which of these teams have the advantage (or disadvantage) in their starting pitching staffs, bullpens and lineups? One well-informed scout offers his take.

STARTERS
"Tampa is the best, I don't think anybody else is close," the scout said, going on to designate (in order) the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays as next in line.


...

The one staff that could compete with Tampa?

"If Boston is healthy," the scout said, "on paper they could easily be right there."

[pleasepassthesoup]

You are clairvoyant:

Good lord.


On a side note, I think the Yankees' injured pitchers would shut down a lineup of the Red Sox injured hitters.

[Yankee Tripper]

They are just 2.5 games out of the 2nd wild card and have the best run differential of all teams chasing the 2nd spot so despite where they are it isn't all gloom and doom.

It's all about the SP with the Sox in the 2nd half. If they get it they should be in the post season, if they don't they will be home again for October.

[Yankee Tripper]

"If Boston is healthy," the scout said, "on paper they could easily be right there."

So a starting staff that is a ahead of just KC & Minnesota could be the best?

Besides Buchholz who is hurt? Joshie missed a few starts but has been healthy most of the year. Dice-BB is healthy and sucking. Lester & Doubrant have been healthy all year. Is being demoted for poor performance like Bard considered an injury?

Bailey will help the back end of the pen but the pen really hasn't been their problem for the most part.

[NerfBall55]

They are just 2.5 games out of the 2nd wild card and have the best run differential of all teams chasing the 2nd spot so despite where they are it isn't all gloom and doom.

It's all about the SP with the Sox in the 2nd half. If they get it they should be in the post season, if they don't they will be home again for October.

I don't think they'll get it, but, even if they do, their July schedule is brutal.

[RhodyYanksFan]

You are clairvoyant:

Wow...where was that written?

[NerfBall55]

Wow...where was that written?

I made it up. But I do expect to find something similar eventually.

[Yankee Tripper]

I don't think they'll get it, but, even if they do, their July schedule is brutal.

If not them who though?

LAA is looking really good for one spot. Especially since Pujols is hitting again and the Trout Trumbo combo looks really good. They have the pitching and should get a steady diet of Oakland & Seattle in the 2nd half which can only help.

Tampa has the pitching but do they have the offense?

Baltimore is a house of cards.

I don't think Toronto has the horses with all the picthing injuries they've had.

Unless the Central (CHW, CLE, DET) is a lot better than I thought, I still think the Sox have a pretty good shot at the post season but I'd love for them to fall flat on their face coming out of the break and just get burried. I just don't see it happening.

[NerfBall55]

If not them who though?

LAA is looking really good for one spot. Especially since Pujols is hitting again and the Trout Trumbo combo looks really good. They have the pitching and should get a steady diet of Oakland & Seattle in the 2nd half which can only help.

Tampa has the pitching but do they have the offense?

Baltimore is a house of cards.

I don't think Toronto has the horses with all the picthing injuries they've had.

Unless the Central (CHW, CLE, DET) is a lot better than I thought, I still think the Sox have a pretty good shot at the post season but I'd love for them to fall flat on their face coming out of the break and just get burried. I just don't see it happening.

I see nothing the points to the Sox being anything more than what they are. I didn't think they'd make the postseason in ST (I'll see if I can find the post) and listed the reasons. I'm sure a bunch are holding up.

I can't dismiss teams like Baltimore, Detroit etc until they do it themselves. Plus, if any of those teams decide to go for it and add a Greinke, they'll be even better (I'm almost certain Boston will not add a name). There's too many in the mix right now to say Boston will be the best of that bunch. All the reasons that point to a turnaround are a big leap of faith. I can easily see them sliding a game a week in the standings in July, if not more.

And, yes, I'm fully aware anything can happen, vagaries of baseball, everything could go right for them... etc.....vomit smiley...yada..yada...

[YankeePride1967]

If not them who though?

LAA is looking really good for one spot. Especially since Pujols is hitting again and the Trout Trumbo combo looks really good. They have the pitching and should get a steady diet of Oakland & Seattle in the 2nd half which can only help.

Tampa has the pitching but do they have the offense?

Baltimore is a house of cards.

I don't think Toronto has the horses with all the picthing injuries they've had.

Unless the Central (CHW, CLE, DET) is a lot better than I thought, I still think the Sox have a pretty good shot at the post season but I'd love for them to fall flat on their face coming out of the break and just get burried. I just don't see it happening.

I think Cleveland and Detroit are primed they are in a weaker division than the Sox, the Sox still have not played the Angels at all, only have played two games vs. Texas and have 12 games against the Yankees (9 on the road) remaining. Plus they are in the AL East. They need a Cole Hamels type pitcher or I think they will be home for the third straight October.

[b-ball-lunachick]

Was this posted here last Friday?

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/ba...gue-east-teams-

uhh. assuming this isn't a joke, no surprise it's from EEI. yikes.

[Yankee Tripper]

I see nothing the points to the Sox being anything more than what they are. I didn't think they'd make the postseason in ST (I'll see if I can find the post) and listed the reasons. I'm sure a bunch are holding up.

I can't dismiss teams like Baltimore, Detroit etc until they do it themselves. Plus, if any of those teams decide to go for it and add a Greinke, they'll be even better (I'm almost certain Boston will not add a name). There's too many in the mix right now to say Boston will be the best of that bunch. All the reasons that point to a turnaround are a big leap of faith. I can easily see them sliding a game a week in the standings in July, if not more.

And, yes, I'm fully aware anything can happen, vagaries of baseball, everything could go right for them... etc.....vomit smiley...yada..yada...

Yeah I understand that. But their playoff odds on coolstandings are 32.7% though baseball prospectus has them at only 18.5%.

30% seems about right to me given where they are, what their run differential is, what players they will be adding from the DL and how many other teams are in the mix.

I'm not saying they are a lock but if someone put a gun to my head and said what 2 teams will be the AL wild cards, I'd say LAA would be hosting Boston for the 1 game play in.

Frankly I hope on wrong on both counts and both Boston & LA miss the post season all together. Especially LA where the Yanks has play like crap and Weaver/Wilson/Haren (DL) are all capable of shutting down good offenses on any given day.

[NerfBall55]

Yeah I understand that. But their playoff odds on coolstandings are 32.7% though baseball prospectus has them at only 18.5%.

30% seems about right to me given where they are, what their run differential is, what players they will be adding from the DL and how many other teams are in the mix.

I'm not saying they are a lock but if someone put a gun to my head and said what 2 teams will be the AL wild cards, I'd say LAA would be hosting Boston for the 1 game play in.

Frankly I hope on wrong on both counts and both Boston & LA miss the post season all together. Especially LA where the Yanks has play like crap and Weaver/Wilson/Haren (DL) are all capable of shutting down good offenses on any given day.

I understand dismissing Baltimore due to their pyth and the expected normalization of 1 run and EI games, but I can't put Boston their, largely due to the division, and as I see no reason to expect improvement, which I think will be too late if they do. I'll go with Anaheim and.........Detroit.

[Yankee Tripper]

I understand dismissing Baltimore due to their pyth and the expected normalization of 1 run and EI games, but I can't put Boston their, largely due to the division, and as I see no reason to expect improvement, which I think will be too late if they do. I'll go with Anaheim and.........Detroit.

Baltimore is a house of cards because thier SP is just so bad.

I could totally see the Tigers being the other WC (Or White Sox if Tigers catch them)

I just don't think Beckett & Lester will be as bad in the 2nd half as the 1st and Buchholz seemed to be pitching much better before the illness. I guess he's a wild card. Dubront seems to give them close to a league average starter to plug into the 4 spot and between Morales & Dice-BB I think they will at least be able to run out a 5th starter who gives them some chance.

While they have gotten some over performance from Salty & Ortiz, much of the rest of the lineup underperformed and they still scored runs.

Honestly like I said I hope they come out of the break going 0-10, few things would make me happier from a baseball stand point. Unless it is the Yankees going 10-0.

[YankeePride1967]

Baltimore is a house of cards because thier SP is just so bad.

I could totally see the Tigers being the other WC (Or White Sox if Tigers catch them)

I just don't think Beckett & Lester will be as bad in the 2nd half as the 1st and Buchholz seemed to be pitching much better before the illness. I guess he's a wild card. Dubront seems to give them close to a league average starter to plug into the 4 spot and between Morales & Dice-BB I think they will at least be able to run out a 5th starter who gives them some chance.

While they have gotten some over performance from Salty & Ortiz, much of the rest of the lineup underperformed and they still scored runs.

Honestly like I said I hope they come out of the break going 0-10, few things would make me happier from a baseball stand point. Unless it is the Yankees going 10-0.

Lester more so than Beckett. Some seem to think that Beckett is pitching through an arm injury. If so I wouldn't expect him to return to form.

[NerfBall55]

Baltimore is a house of cards because thier SP is just so bad.

I could totally see the Tigers being the other WC (Or White Sox if Tigers catch them)

I just don't think Beckett & Lester will be as bad in the 2nd half as the 1st and Buchholz seemed to be pitching much better before the illness. I guess he's a wild card. Dubront seems to give them close to a league average starter to plug into the 4 spot and between Morales & Dice-BB I think they will at least be able to run out a 5th starter who gives them some chance.

While they have gotten some over performance from Salty & Ortiz, much of the rest of the lineup underperformed and they still scored runs.

Honestly like I said I hope they come out of the break going 0-10, few things would make me happier from a baseball stand point. Unless it is the Yankees going 10-0.

Dubront will run into innings problems soon. He's almost at 100 right now. Buchholz was one of the main reasons I thought the sox would narrowly miss the playoffs. A #3 returning from injury who only threw 100+ innings once. Being injured again will not help. Lester should get better, and Beckett's should too a bit, but I have no idea how much.

I think I'll let this go at this point, since I've reached my personal limit on how many posts I can tolerate being thrown back at me should the sox go on a crazy tear and make the post season.

[ieddyi]

They are just 2.5 games out of the 2nd wild card and have the best run differential of all teams chasing the 2nd spot so despite where they are it isn't all gloom and doom.

It's all about the SP with the Sox in the 2nd half. If they get it they should be in the post season, if they don't they will be home again for October.

IDK about run differential being a determining stat. A team that has a blow out win and a few 1 run losses could look a lot better than it really is.

Stuff happens. People act as though the Pythagorean standings have more validity than the actual standings. I think it's interesting to look at, but not a be all and end all

[ieddyi]

Soooo, Middlebrooks is not playing w/ a hammy injury and Youkilis is hitting game winners

Curious......

[gregzzy22]

Soooo, Middlebrooks is not playing w/ a hammy injury and Youkilis is hitting game winners

Curious......

this is fun

[AuroraBomberalis]

Boston's run differential shouldn't be trusted. They are so good (as they always have been) at tacking on runs and blowing out wins to the tune of 5-6-7+ run victories. Those few blowouts skew the differential.

Look at some of these wins:

12-1
12-2
15-5
11-2
13-5
10-2
10-3
10-3
7-0

That's 9 games won by 7 runs or more. (To compare, the Yankees have only won 3 games by 7 or more)

Boston struggles to win the close ones. They've lost 21 games by either 1 or 2 runs. (Yankees have lost 13 games by 1 or 2 runs)

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

Boston's run differential shouldn't be trusted. They are so good (as they always have been) at tacking on runs and blowing out wins to the tune of 5-6-7+ run victories. Those few blowouts skew the differential.

Look at some of these wins:

12-1
12-2
15-5
11-2
13-5
10-2
10-3
10-3
7-0

That's 9 games won by 7 runs or more. (To compare, the Yankees have only won 3 games by 7 or more)

Boston struggles to win the close ones. They've lost 21 games by either 1 or 2 runs. (Yankees have lost 13 games by 1 or 2 runs)

My guess is that the theory would be that they are bound to improve upon this by chance in the second half.

I'm not a huge literalist in the pythagorean outlook, but I think that huge directional inconsistencies (e.g., the Orioles or Red Sox) are worth taking note of.

[b-ball-lunachick]

this is fun

it really is..I haven't done a YOUUUK chant or anything but I'm enjoying his success.

[AuroraBomberalis]

My guess is that the theory would be that they are bound to improve upon this by chance in the second half.

Or they just have a lot of hitters who are really, really good at hitting when the game is already "over" and not quite so good when there's pressure to win a close game. Or they have relievers who can't hold tight games.

[4bronxbombers]

Should be interesting, yes. I don't see a lot of outside moves that are likely to really help us right now, but we'll see. It's ................ing crazy how bad Beckett and Lester have been this year. It's honestly think it's the difference between us hovering around .500 and being a serious contender, more so than having half our team living on the DL (let's face it, the replacement level scrubs are doing a great job in their absence) or any other excuse/reason that people want to point to.

I'm tempted to get rid of Beckett on my fantasy team - there are some better SP's available but I know what will happen once I drop him.

[NerfBall55]

Or they just have a lot of hitters who are really, really good at hitting when the game is already "over" and not quite so good when there's pressure to win a close game.

I don't buy this for a minute.