The Red Sox Thread

[4bronxbombers]

Are they free?

No but I think they are priced really fair. Face value with no mark up.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

BC, I won't dispute that the starting staff has been awful through the first 17 games.

No, but you don't seem to understand the fact that the SP has cost us over twice as many games as the RP, and your solution to the smaller issue is to remove one of the few remaining stitches holding the bigger issue together.

But I think that where people are coming from is that at least the top three has a history of some success. Lester has been a legitmate at least #2 type starting pitcher who is still only 28 years old with 4 straight years averaging 200 IP and an ERA of about 3.30 in the AL East. Beckett has had plenty of success in the past, and Buchholz has shown that he can be very effective, when healthy.

Carl Crawford and John Lackey had a history of success before they came here, too. If you really want to talk history, Buchholz has a track record of being regularly hurt and, quite frankly, looks to be in need of a DL stint right now. He certainly doesn't look like he's going to improve any time soon.

History isn't the point, though. In the present Dan Bard helps us in the rotation. In the future he could help us a whole lot more. He needs to be allowed a chance to start in the present for that to happen.

But the bullpen has not demonstrated a past history of success. Morales has never been a set up man. Aceves has never been a closer. Padilla, who pitched the 7th inning, hasn't been a reliever since 2001, and he's not really been a pitcher with a history of success anywhere. Atchinson, Albers, Thomas, and Tazawa round out the bullpen. I'm sorry, I think this is going to continue to cost the Red Sox games and I think Cherington has to do something to get some reliable arms out there somewhere. You can take a flyer on someone, or even a couple of guys in the bullpen, and most teams do. But the Red Sox entire bullpen right now is a flyer and I think it's the weakest part of the team.

I'm not arguing that the bullpen isn't an issue and I'm not arguing that it hasn't cost us any games. I'm arguing that the SP has cost us over twice as many games and that it represents the largest issue. Taking one of the few serviceable guys out of it, a guy who has the potential to be much greater, and a guy who needs the work NOW in order to reach said potential, is good for us neither in the short or long term.

Moving Bard out of the rotation to fix the bullpen would have been like fortifying the dikes of New Orleans with some toilet paper and Elmer's glue before Katrina hit. If management were seriously interested in plugging some holes in the bullpen they would have traded for some BP help instead of Marlon ................ing Byrd. They made a commitment to let him develop and it makes no sense to pull the rug out from underneath him now when things are going okay for him.

Here's an honest question for you; do you believe that moving Bard to the bullpen is the difference between the Sox winning the World Series this year?

[False1]

You can't make this up. In preparing last night's lineup, Bobby V "scouted" the opposing pitcher (Hendricks) on his cell phone. He posted his lineup vs. left handers as he thought he was a lefty. Saltalamachia had to tell him Hendricks was a righty and he then sent out the right lineup. Boston doesn't have the ability to wait for Valentine to learn how to manage again.

Saw this on MLBN last night. It's just perfect. Absolutely perfect.

[Jersey Yankee]

You can't make this up. In preparing last night's lineup, Bobby V "scouted" the opposing pitcher (Hendricks) on his cell phone. He posted his lineup vs. left handers as he thought he was a lefty. Saltalamachia had to tell him Hendricks was a righty and he then sent out the right lineup. Boston doesn't have the ability to wait for Valentine to learn how to manage again.

Stupid question: doesn't Bill James still work for the BoSox? Or did he get caught in the sweep-and-fire thingy that had Theo, Paps and Tito get shown the door last winter?

[TommyK8]

BC, I don't think it's the difference as things stand right now. I am trying to look at the overall picture. I think that Aceves is miscast as a closer. Right now, he's a weakness in that role, but when used properly, I think he's an important asset. Last year, he gave the Red Sox over 100 really good innings out of the bullpen. Another thing I'm looking at is that Aaron Cook will have to be released if we don't promote him to the major leagues shortly, and so the question is do you want to let him go or would the team be better served by inserting him in the rotation and moving Bard to the pen.

There are no perfect solutions here, no matter what they do.

[False1]

BC, I don't think it's the difference as things stand right now. I am trying to look at the overall picture. I think that Aceves is miscast as a closer. Right now, he's a weakness in that role, but when used properly, I think he's an important asset. Last year, he gave the Red Sox over 100 really good innings out of the bullpen. Another thing I'm looking at is that Aaron Cook will have to be released if we don't promote him to the major leagues shortly, and so the question is do you want to let him go or would the team be better served by inserting him in the rotation and moving Bard to the pen.

There are no perfect solutions here, no matter what they do.

Are you confident that Aaron Cook is going to be a difference maker at all in that rotation?

If he replicated his career K/9 of 3.8, among guys w/ >130 IP last year he'd be second to last in all of MLB... right ahead of Brad Penny and just behind Joel Piniero, Carl Pavano and Jeff Francis. Not such great company, unless you're a hitter in the AL. I'm sure they'd take Pavano's '11 production right now, but still... not sure why Cook is getting the attention he has received other than out of desperation.

[ieddyi]

'Nick Cafardo
‏ @nickcafardo
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Looks like Carl Crawford will miss three months. Sox issuing press release shortly on details"

[False1]

1. Crawford missing the entire season would be a small plus for the RS. When (if?) Dreamy returns, the RS outfield is better without him. He's a sunk cost. No one will take him off our hands without us paying 90% of his salary. And if we need the spot on the 40-man roster bad enough, it might be worth it.

Shirley you can't be serious.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

BC, I don't think it's the difference as things stand right now.

Okay, fair enough. Past that, do you think moving Bard to the bullpen is the difference between us making the playoffs?

I am trying to look at the overall picture. I think that Aceves is miscast as a closer.

He is to a degree, in the sense that he's not a typical closer with typical closer stuff. That being said, him being thrust into a different role isn't what has made him suck this year. At his best, he could fill just about any role in the bullpen, including closing if the need truly arises (it has). Conversely, the Ace we've been watching this season would have been just as awful as the 7th inning guy, setting up, or in long relief.

Right now, he's a weakness in that role, but when used properly, I think he's an important asset.

Right now he'd be a weakness in any role and it will remain that way until he rights his own ship (fingers crossed, I think he will). It has little or nothing to do with how he is used. The shut down Ace we watched last year would have been sufficient to close for most teams, including ours in a pinch. The one we've watched so far this year isn't even suited for mop up duty. If he rights his ship, we'll be fine no matter where he use him. He's far and away the most versatile guy in our bullpen.

Last year, he gave the Red Sox over 100 really good innings out of the bullpen.

Those 93 innings would have been just as good regardless of what role they used him in. I remember them shuffling him around in lots of different roles, actually. He was actually in several save situations and other high leverage situations, and his numbers were about the same as in low leverage ones.

Another thing I'm looking at is that Aaron Cook will have to be released if we don't promote him to the major leagues shortly, and so the question is do you want to let him go or would the team be better served by inserting him in the rotation and moving Bard to the pen.

First, we can bring Cook up without starting him. He might actually be very useful for us out of the pen, where he can eat up a lot more innings than Bard would if he were moved to the pen. Additionally, we'd have an extra arm to throw out there if Buchholz or Lester need to go to the DL at some point soon. Bard isn't as flexible and isn't going to want to be jerked around from the pen to the rotation over and over again.

Second, we won't necessarily lose Cook. It's up to him. If he decides that it would be better for him to wait a couple of weeks for the Sox to bring him up instead of, say, asking for his release so he can play for league minimum for the Pirates or Royals, he can choose to do that instead.

There are no perfect solutions here, no matter what they do.

I agree, but I also believe the solution that you and every panicking message board fan are proposing right now is the worst solution available to us.

[False1]

BC, I don't think it's the difference as things stand right now. I am trying to look at the overall picture. I think that Aceves is miscast as a closer. Right now, he's a weakness in that role, but when used properly, I think he's an important asset. Last year, he gave the Red Sox over 100 really good innings out of the bullpen. Another thing I'm looking at is that Aaron Cook will have to be released if we don't promote him to the major leagues shortly, and so the question is do you want to let him go or would the team be better served by inserting him in the rotation and moving Bard to the pen.

There are no perfect solutions here, no matter what they do.

Wouldn't the big picture also include assessing how Bard can most help the team beyond '12? Unless they're planning on trying to re-create the experiment of moving him back to the rotation at some later point, it seems very short-sighted to me. And of course I'd have it no other way.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Are you confident that Aaron Cook is going to be a difference maker at all in that rotation?

If he replicated his career K/9 of 3.8, among guys w/ >130 IP last year he'd be second to last in all of MLB... right ahead of Brad Penny and just behind Joel Piniero, Carl Pavano and Jeff Francis. Not such great company, unless you're a hitter in the AL. I'm sure they'd take Pavano's '11 production right now, but still... not sure why Cook is getting the attention he has received other than out of desperation.

I think people are making too much of the low K/9 rate for a guy who is an extreme groundball pitcher. That being said, I don't think he represents a serious improvement over Bard in the rotation and would be much better suited for long relief type work in the AL East. Hopefully they bring him up soon and hopefully he's in the pen when they do.

[False1]

I think people are making too much of the low K/9 rate for a guy who is an extreme groundball pitcher. That being said, I don't think he represents a serious improvement over Bard in the rotation and would be much better suited for long relief type work in the AL East. Hopefully they bring him up soon and hopefully he's in the pen when they do.

Except that too many of those gb find holes, as evidenced by his H/9 and babip against. Also, while he limits fly balls 1 in 10 go over a wall - not great.

When you can't suppress hits or walks, have a slightly higher than average HR/FB% and can't generate strikeouts, not much good can come of that.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Wouldn't the big picture also include assessing how Bard can most help the team beyond '12? Unless they're planning on trying to re-create the experiment of moving him back to the rotation at some later point, it seems very short-sighted to me. And of course I'd have it no other way.

Even if they did, it would still be short-sighted IMO. The Sox don't only stand to benefit in the future by giving Bard the chance to fulfill his potential, but we stand to benefit in the present by allowing him to continue contributing league average and still improving starts. His swing and miss stuff is so nasty that he's managed to churn in respectable performances despite his god awful BB rates. How valuable could this guy be once he starts lowering his BB/9? With all due respect to Aaron Cook, a lot more valuable than that.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Except that too many of those gb find holes, as evidenced by his H/9 and babip against. Also, while he limits fly balls 1 in 10 go over a wall - not great.

When you can't suppress hits or walks, have a slightly higher than average HR/FB% and can't generate strikeouts, not much good can come of that.

I'm not sure what numbers you were looking at, but I'll dig around a bit and see if I can find them. The numbers I have (baseball-reference) are much better than league average for both HR rate (1.9% vs. 2.7%) and HR/FB% (6.2% vs. 7.7%), which would be especially impressive for a guy who spent his entire career in Denver. I'll go check on fangraphs and see if the numbers look different there.

Not that I entirely disagree with your point; groundball pitchers who have decent K rates (i.e. Webb, Brown, Lowe) are generally better than their counterparts who don't.

[False1]

I'm not sure what numbers you were looking at, but I'll dig around a bit and see if I can find them. The numbers I have (baseball-reference) are much better than league average for both HR rate (1.9% vs. 2.7%) and HR/FB% (6.2% vs. 7.7%), which would be especially impressive for a guy who spent his entire career in Denver. I'll go check on fangraphs and see if the numbers look different there.

Not that I entirely disagree with your point; groundball pitchers who have decent K rates (i.e. Webb, Brown, Lowe) are generally better than their counterparts who don't.

Got them from FG, which shows 10.2%.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Got them from FG, which shows 10.2%.

Just came in to say that. Clearly FG and BR have different methods of determining HR/FB rate. I'm gonna go figure out how.

EDIT: Pretty simple, actually. FGs formula is HR/FB, which is what it should be. The problem lies with how they tally FBs and GBs relative to line drives. Unlike most other sites, LDs are treated as a separate entity; shallow/infield LDs aren't also considered GBs and deeper LDs aren't also considered FBs. This might actually be more logical in the greater scheme of statistical analysis but becomes a problem when you start taking batted balls that you don't consider flyballs and then use those balls in a formula meant only for flyballs. This is what they do with the HR/FB%; they do include line drive home runs in the total HR tally but, unlike most other sites, they don't include line drive flyballs in the total FB tally.

[TommyK8]

I guess I am not completely convinced that Bard's best value is as a starter, or at least that they have to do it this year. Matsuzaka, like it or not, will be back in Boston in less than one month. I can't imagine him going to the bullpen for the remainder of the year. Barring another injury to a starter, he's going to displace someone from the rotation, and I guess you think it should be Doubront. But I think Doubront has shown that at age 24, he may have a future as a major league starter. I am ok with what Doubront has shown thus far if he could just do the same for the remainder of the season.

Or maybe Valentine will go with a 6 man rotation? I don't know. But I don't see Dice-K as a long reliever. Maybe I'm wrong and that's just what he'll do.

As for Aceves, I think his stuff plays much better as a long man. Not everyone can swing into the closer's role. I also don't think it's automatic that however he's pitched in the 9th this year was the same as he would have pitched in the 7th.

[YankeePride1967]

I think counting on Dice-K in any role would be wishful thinking. Unless he has morphed into a different pitcher, the last thing the Sox need is a pitcher that throws 100 pitches by the 5th inning and counting on 3 plus innings from the bullpen.

[sweet_lou_14]

Why did I think Matsuzaka was never going to pitch in Boston again?

Probably good news for the rest of the league if he comes back.

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

Why did I think Matsuzaka was never going to pitch in Boston again?

Probably good news for the rest of the league if he comes back.

He's a bit ahead in his rehab this year. When he was first injured, they were saying second half, and I think there was some speculation he might never pitch for the Red Sox again. But he's progressed more quickly, and they certainly have a need -- so here we are.

[cptcarl]

Rich Hill (coming off injury, but very good in a small sample size) called up for tonight's game, Justin Thomas sent down to the BB Squad in the Yemen League. This rates to be a big net plus for the RS. Now, if they can just avoid having to call up Aaron Cook, and get BV over what seems like an anti-Tazawa bias, the makings of an average team are in place!

[Bronson'sCornrows]

I guess I am not completely convinced that Bard's best value is as a starter, or at least that they have to do it this year. Matsuzaka, like it or not, will be back in Boston in less than one month. I can't imagine him going to the bullpen for the remainder of the year. Barring another injury to a starter, he's going to displace someone from the rotation, and I guess you think it should be Doubront. But I think Doubront has shown that at age 24, he may have a future as a major league starter. I am ok with what Doubront has shown thus far if he could just do the same for the remainder of the season.

Or maybe Valentine will go with a 6 man rotation? I don't know. But I don't see Dice-K as a long reliever. Maybe I'm wrong and that's just what he'll do.

Dice-K hasn't done anything in 4 years to warrant a spot in the rotation, healthy or not. If Bard gets bumped out of the rotation for Dice-K, I don't see myself watching a whole lot of Sox games this season, and neither will anyone else when Dice-K starts. I would also be very angry if Doubront got bumped for Dice-K. Matsuzaka should only get a spot in the rotation if and when someone else goes down. There's absolutely no good reason to sacrifice the present or the future on a guy who had one and a half successful major league seasons 4 and 5 years ago just because that guy is accustomed to starting games.

As for Aceves, I think his stuff plays much better as a long man. Not everyone can swing into the closer's role.

Not everyone can, but any successful relief pitcher who doesn't lose his bearings under pressure can have success regardless of what the inning is or what the scoreboard says. Relief pitching tends to be highly cyclical; any guy who is on a roll is likely to stay on a roll regardless of whether he is used in the 6th or the 9th. We've seen this time and time again. Did you panic when we were forced to rely on Timlin to close games in 2005, or did you take things in stride knowing that he was on a roll that season and that he had a long track record of success?

I also don't think it's automatic that however he's pitched in the 9th this year was the same as he would have pitched in the 7th.

Really? So you do think that his stuff would have magically been better if only he never had to come in to pitch the 8th or 9th? Even though, when called upon in similar situations last season, there was little or no difference in his stuff or results? If you honestly believe that, I'd have to say you believe way too many cliched myths perpetuated by the brainless sports media and the zombies that listen to their awful shows or read their ................ty articles.

Alfredo Aceves has sucked this year because he has sucked this year. He hasn't sucked this year because he was sad or angry or confused or overwhelmed by being thrown out there in the 8th and 9th a few times.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Rich Hill (coming off injury, but very good in a small sample size) called up for tonight's game, Justin Thomas sent down to the BB Squad in the Yemen League. This rates to be a big net plus for the RS. Now, if they can just avoid having to call up Aaron Cook, and get BV over what seems like an anti-Tazawa bias, the makings of an average team are in place!

There's no good reason for Tazawa to have not gotten more work so far, unless Bobby V just needed to see how bad some of the other guys really were before they got sent back down. Between Tazawa, Albers, and Atchison (combined WHIP = 0.895), we have three guys who have been very good so far (SSS, but that's all you have to work with at this point). If they can keep it up and if Rich Hill could help, this bullpen could go from dreadful to downright solid in a very short amount of time.

I'm hoping last night (plus a 5 game win streak) will serve to do two things; a. get Tazawa some more innings and b. quiet down some of that ridiculous "BARD TO THE PEN!!!1!!11" nonsense.

[teknetic]

Albers is pretty awful.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Albers is pretty awful.

Historically, yeah, but relief pitching tends to be unpredictable in the sense of below average guys often having a couple of great years and vice versa. Albers has been very good so far this year, other than the SSS.