The Red Sox Thread

[Samuelson]

If that's they way you want to see it fine..

But the way I see the numbers is, when Cano and Pedroia face each other head to head, they'll obviously be using the same ballpark. Given the same situations when going head to head, Cano is better.

Batters don't face each other head to head. And the ballpark has a lot less to do with their numbers "against each other" than the Red Sox and Yankee pitching staffs, IMO. Again, how do you separate ballpark factors from pitching factors when the batter you're talking about is "Away?" You can only do that for home games.

[Samuelson]

OPS+, SLG, BIP, blah blah blah...there are only three stats that paint a TRUE picture of MLB hitters - BA, HR's, RBI's....much like with MLB pitchers - tell me their WINS, ERA, and K's...that is all the people need to know.
All the rest is a sort of self indulgent brain wanking...

I don't agree with this, and neither do MLB teams.

[Meecham4ever]

I don't agree with this, and neither do MLB teams.

And neither do I.

[Shadoux101]

Take a look at these BIP charts from 2011 showing HR (dark blue), 2B (light blue) and fly outs (orange). The first is Cano's work from Yankee Stadium overlayed on Fenway. The second is Pedroia's work from Fenway mapped to Yankee Stadium.

Attachment 20850Attachment 20851

What's your take on these?

IF I'm seeing this right, it looks like Pedroia would have only had one HR at YS and Cano would have had potentially several more.

Cano would have benifited way more from the super short porch and playing wall ball at Boston then Pedroia would have from "YANKEE STADIUM'S HUGE ADVANTAGE".

I don't even need to look at numbers to say I'd rather have Cano. Cano can play anywhere.

[aeromac76]

Batters don't face each other head to head. And the ballpark has a lot less to do with their numbers "against each other" than the Red Sox and Yankee pitching staffs, IMO. Again, how do you separate ballpark factors from pitching factors when the batter you're talking about is "Away?" You can only do that for home games.

True, but at head to head competition, each player operates under identical conditions and their contributions to their teams in those head to head matchups are direct..

In other words, when the two players take the field together for a game between the two teams, the Yankees have the better player at second base.

[4bronxbombers]

Wow, this is terrible about Jenks. It doesn't come right out and say it but it points to MGH messing up.

More than just his career, Bobby Jenks was fearful for his life in December.
A few weeks after Dec. 12 surgery to remove bone spurs in his back Dec. 12 at Massachusetts General Hospital, Jenks was at home in Phoenix and noticed fluid leaking from the middle of his back.

http://www.courant.com/sports/baseba...,2322382.story

[Samuelson]

True, but at head to head competition, each player operates under identical conditions and their contributions to their teams in those head to head matchups are direct..

In other words, when the two players take the field together for a game between the two teams, the Yankees have the better player at second base.

That's narrowing the argument down to a pretty tiny sample of each player's performance, and it looks like you're right, ignoring defense. But again, as I've said all along, the difference is slim.

Pedroia vs. Yankees, career: .317/.392/.453, OPS .845

Cano vs. Red Sox, career: .319/.359/.520, OPS .879

[Bob420]

All you have to do is look at Pedroia's home/road splits. His numbers are almost identical except for the doubles at home.


Home

1599 PA
1416 AB
458 H
130 2B
4 3B
40 HR
147 BB
.323/.387/.506

Road

1602 PA
1409 AB
404 H
76 2B
4 3B
35 HR
154 BB
.287/.360/.421

He has exactly 54 more hits at home and 54 more doubles at home. All other numbers are so close.

[Samuelson]

All you have to do is look at Pedroia's home/road splits. His numbers are almost identical except for the doubles at home.


Home

1599 PA
1416 AB
458 H
130 2B
4 3B
40 HR
147 BB
.323/.387/.506

Road

1602 PA
1409 AB
404 H
76 2B
4 3B
35 HR
154 BB
.287/.360/.421

He has exactly 54 more hits at home and 54 more doubles at home. All other numbers are so close.

How many of those are "wall ball" doubles? Not challenging you, necessarily, just curious.

Edit: Also, it's a common misconception that any "wall ball" would have been an out in other parks. Some would have been home runs. The "wall scraper" types certainly benefit the hitter but some are rockets high off the wall that undoubtedly would have been HRs in most parks but instead may be doubles or even singles at Fenway.

[Bob420]

I think it is difficult to collect stats on wall ball doubles. Doubles don't have to hit the wall to have benefited from it being there.

I think the fact that all his other stats are nearly identical shows that he definitely benefits from being a RHH in Fenway. Obviously, players have advantages in their own parks but that 2B's number is so out of whack compared to all his other stats.

[Bob420]

Now Cano:

Home

2141 PA
1989 AB
602 H
125 2B
13 3B
77 HR
111 BB
.303/.342/.495

Road

2272 PA
2115 AB
661 H
161 2B
14 3B
67 HR
113 BB
.313/.352/.497


His doubles are up on the road and his HR's are down. This is the type of difference I would expect to see if 2B or HR's were benefitted by park. He is pretty much the same overall hitter at home or on the road. Actually, slightly better on the road.

[ieddyi]

Wow, this is terrible about Jenks. It doesn't come right out and say it but it points to MGH messing up.

More than just his career, Bobby Jenks was fearful for his life in December.
A few weeks after Dec. 12 surgery to remove bone spurs in his back Dec. 12 at Massachusetts General Hospital, Jenks was at home in Phoenix and noticed fluid leaking from the middle of his back.

http://www.courant.com/sports/baseba...,2322382.story

Doesn't sound like he'll be back anytime soon.

Another bad result from sawx medical team. This wasn't a misdiagnosis like may of the others, just a botched surgery

[4bronxbombers]

Doesn't sound like he'll be back anytime soon.

Another bad result from sawx medical team. This wasn't a misdiagnosis like may of the others, just a botched surgery

Looks like they fired a bunch of people, the medical director, the trainers etc. I think it's at the very end of the article.

[False1]

All you have to do is look at Pedroia's home/road splits. His numbers are almost identical except for the doubles at home.


Home

1599 PA
1416 AB
458 H
130 2B
4 3B
40 HR
147 BB
.323/.387/.506

Road

1602 PA
1409 AB
404 H
76 2B
4 3B
35 HR
154 BB
.287/.360/.421

He has exactly 54 more hits at home and 54 more doubles at home. All other numbers are so close.

Yep, I've been saying the difference for Pedroia is the aggregate doubles he pops off the wall. Would some of those have been HR? Probably a few. But to neutralize that in terms of OPS - which is what was originally being debated - about half of them would have been HR. Some of them would have been outs at a greater clip then HR. It's definitely boosting his SLG at home. Anyone intimating anything different is a homer.

[False1]

How many of those are "wall ball" doubles? Not challenging you, necessarily, just curious.

Edit: Also, it's a common misconception that any "wall ball" would have been an out in other parks. Some would have been home runs. The "wall scraper" types certainly benefit the hitter but some are rockets high off the wall that undoubtedly would have been HRs in most parks but instead may be doubles or even singles at Fenway.

That's definitely a challenge looking at the hit charts at Fenway. But clearly more wall balls then supressed HR. Go look at his BIP charts for every AL East field last year (where he gets most of his road ABs each year). He doesn't have prodigious power to LF. Fenway might make it look that way on those fly balls that soar down the line over that giant monstrosity, but he's not crushing to LF.

Camden: 1 HR to left center that just squeaked over the 360' wall
Rogers: Tapped 1 no-doubter to left-center
Trop: Hit 1 squeaker to left center at about 370'
YS: Nothing even close

I'd love to see his splits on when he pulls at home versus on the road. I guarantee you that will debunk your theory of wall-ballism.

[Bronson'sCornrows]

Take a look at these BIP charts from 2011 showing HR (dark blue), 2B (light blue) and fly outs (orange). The first is Cano's work from Yankee Stadium overlayed on Fenway. The second is Pedroia's work from Fenway mapped to Yankee Stadium.

Attachment 20850Attachment 20851

What's your take on these?

Two questions. First, do the dots on the charts represent where the balls actually landed, or do they represent the trajectory those balls would have taken regardless of physical barriers and under neutral weather conditions? This is important because so many of Pedroia's singles and doubles to left bounce off the monster, and many would have gone farther than they had. Many would have gone farther only to unceremoniously plop into a LF glove, but farther nonetheless.

Second, do you have more of these for different years? I like to look at the last 3-5 years individually when analyzing player value or value projections. A link to the site you used would be fine (I remember the official MLB site used to have these, I can't find them now).

One final statement; these charts are valuable, but must be taken with a grain of salt because they take weather conditions into consideration. A ball that Pedroia crushes to right at Fenway might have been stopped 30 feet earlier under the heavy air at AT&T. This same ball might have been a double at Fenway, a home run at Camden Yards, or a routine flyout at AT&T based not on the distance between home plate and wall, but on the way the wind is circulating in those stadiums.

Oh, and looking at the hit charts posted above, Cano does hit a ton of homers down the right field line in YS.

FWIW, Cano definitely benefits from that short porch, but he also does an excellent job carrying that power onto the road with him. Dusty does not.

OPS+, SLG, BIP, blah blah blah...there are only three stats that paint a TRUE picture of MLB hitters - BA, HR's, RBI's....much like with MLB pitchers - tell me their WINS, ERA, and K's...that is all the people need to know.
All the rest is a sort of self indulgent brain wanking...

FWIW, most advanced offensive stats* also show the difference between the two to be minimal. OPS+ is almost identical, BABIP is very close, LD% is almost identical, etc. The only real argument here is is how much Pedroia's overall numbers are aided by the green monster.

*biggest significant advantage for Cano is 1.51 GB/FB ratio, vs. 1.16 for Pedroia

How many of those are "wall ball" doubles? Not challenging you, necessarily, just curious.

Edit: Also, it's a common misconception that any "wall ball" would have been an out in other parks. Some would have been home runs. The "wall scraper" types certainly benefit the hitter but some are rockets high off the wall that undoubtedly would have been HRs in most parks but instead may be doubles or even singles at Fenway.

There's some truth to that, but the realistic scenario is that, in order for things to even out, there would have to be one robbed home run for every two cheap doubles (or one cheap double, two cheap singles). It's highly unlikely that is the case, particularly since Dusty averages just over 10 doubles a season higher at home than he does away. If 8 of those extra doubles are off the monster, you'd have to assume that he's robbed of 4 home runs per season, which seems unrealistically high.

I don't want you to think I'm picking on you or anything; I happen to believe that the overall value between the two is roughly even. Cano has better power and hits much better on the road, while Pedroia gets on base more, sees more pitches per plate appearance, has a better SB/CS ratio, and all available metrics rate him a better defender than Cano.

At the same time, I, like these Yankee fans, weigh Cano's home/road splits heavily in his overall value as a hitter. Does it make him an enormously better hitter than Pedroia? No. But it does makes him a moderately better hitter, IMO.

[kan_t]

wRC+
Cano 119
Pedroia 122

Career Home wRC+
Cano 117
Pedroia 136

Career Away wRC+
Cano 120
Pedroia 108

fWAR
Cano 24.5
Pedroia 25.7

bWAR
Cano 28.5
Pedroia 24.3

[Meecham4ever]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vau...9169/index.htm

Sports Illustrated sees the numbers in a different way than sabermetricians?

[False1]

Two questions. First, do the dots on the charts represent where the balls actually landed, or do they represent the trajectory those balls would have taken regardless of physical barriers and under neutral weather conditions? This is important because so many of Pedroia's singles and doubles to left bounce off the monster, and many would have gone farther than they had. Many would have gone farther only to unceremoniously plop into a LF glove, but farther nonetheless.

The location is "where the ball was fielded by a player" with the obvious exception being HR. And I completely agree with you (and acknowledged this to Samuelson) that Fenway poses a challenge because you don't see the theoretical trajectory of the ball that hits on the wall, where it hits on the wall, etc. But I also agree with your subsequent point (and tried convincing Sammy of the same thing) that while he may get robbed of the occassional HR, if we're talking pure OPS he gets a lot more help than harm by playing at Fenway.

Second, do you have more of these for different years? I like to look at the last 3-5 years individually when analyzing player value or value projections. A link to the site you used would be fine (I remember the official MLB site used to have these, I can't find them now).

Here's the link BC! http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/

[puffyme]

https://twitter.com/#!/IanMBrowne

Valentine bans beer in clubhouse. Right move long over due

[ieddyi]

https://twitter.com/#!/IanMBrowne

Valentine bans beer in clubhouse. Right move long over due

Did the same w/ the Mutts

[Axon]

Beer isn't what caused this team to collapse last year, but hey, whatever makes people happy.

Matter of fact, I could go for some beer and fried chicken right now...

[Mr Coffee]

[Black Sabbathia]

So, who are the prime candidates to sneak beer into the locker room just to f with Valentine? You know it's going to happen....

[Yankee Fan in Boston]

So, who are the prime candidates to sneak beer into the locker room just to f with Valentine? You know it's going to happen....

I seriously doubt it.

Every high school kid knows it far easier to sneak hard alcohol in, and then mix it.