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  1. #476
    Hello dum-dum... effdamets's Avatar
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfallibleOne View Post
    So when do we start the countdown to Pete Rose? By my count, 1,161 to tie....
    sniff
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  2. #477
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    I'll be happy if Jeter reaches 4K at all. I'm not banking on it, in fact the chance is slim. There is no way he can keep up this level of hitting and everyone posting here knows it. He's a slow starter historically so this may be a sign of a very, very good year from him. But let's be realistic. Rose's record as far s Jeter's concerned is still going to stand. He's going to slump and the pressure that is put on him when he slumps gets bigger and bigger every time and it seems harder and harder for him to overcome. I do like the idea of passing "St. Cal" though.
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  3. #478

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    I'll be happy if Jeter reaches 4K at all.
    Who wouldn't? As you say, it would be incredible in every sense of the word.

    3,500 is a more realistic goal for Jeter. Just a few more beyond that (3,515) would put him in the top 5 all-time, a truly stunning feat.

    In 2012, 196 hits (for 3,284 total, 11th place, passing Willie Mays) would be a nice stretch goal. Just 168 for the season would vault him past 8 players, putting him in 12th place at 3,256 ... an even 1,000 behind Rose.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  4. #479
    Hello dum-dum... effdamets's Avatar
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    I'll be happy if Jeter reaches 4K at all. I'm not banking on it, in fact the chance is slim. There is no way he can keep up this level of hitting and everyone posting here knows it. He's a slow starter historically so this may be a sign of a very, very good year from him. But let's be realistic. Rose's record as far s Jeter's concerned is still going to stand. He's going to slump and the pressure that is put on him when he slumps gets bigger and bigger every time and it seems harder and harder for him to overcome. I do like the idea of passing "St. Cal" though.
    I like this post...

    It pains me to have to admit that Jeter can't keep this torrid pace of hits all year, let alone for another 4 or 5 seasons. But hey - it's reality.
    “Begin each day as if it were on purpose........”—Alex Hitchens

  5. #480
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    I think 3500 is a good goal as well. But we also know Jeter only works for one goal. It's more or less our goal for him than his. The problem is with the length of his contract 3500 has him with some terrible seasons. Let's shoot for 3800.
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  6. #481

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    I think 3500 is a good goal as well. But we also know Jeter only works for one goal. It's more or less our goal for him than his. The problem is with the length of his contract 3500 has him with some terrible seasons. Let's shoot for 3800.
    His contract goes through 2013 with a player option for 2014. Assuming he exercises the option, we're talking about three years -- not enough time to get even close to 3,800 hits. Getting to 3,500 over that three-year period would mean an average of 137.33 hits per season, which is very reasonable. Doing it in two years would require 206 hits per season, which is possible but not likely.

    If we want to avoid "terrible" seasons while still being realistic, an average of 180 hits over the next three years would put him at 3,628 while an average of 160 would mean 3,568. For reference, he had 179 hits in 2010 and 162 in 2011.
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  7. #482
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    I was just winging it. 3800 was a guess. I'll change that to 3600 then.
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  8. #483
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    If he gets 181 hits in each of the next three seasons, he will pass Stan Musial for 4th all-time.

    He would still be over 600 hits away from Rose.

    Rose and Cobb each played 24 years.

    Jeter would have to average 195 hits for 6 years to beat Rose in his 24th season. I would love to see it, but it's a lot to hope for.

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  9. #484
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    If he gets 181 hits in each of the next three seasons, he will pass Stan Musial for 4th all-time.

    He would still be over 600 hits away from Rose.

    Rose and Cobb each played 24 years.

    Jeter would have to average 195 hits for 6 years to beat Rose in his 24th season. I would love to see it, but it's a lot to hope for.
    I think the only way to do it is after his and Girardi's contracts are up, make him player/manager. Fans would also come out and watch more games like never before.
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  10. #485

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    I think the only way to do it is after his and Girardi's contracts are up, make him player/manager. Fans would also come out and watch more games like never before.
    This would be an awful idea. Regardless of his performance, he would keep himself in the lineup & it's a lot to assume he'd be performing at a high level to justify it.

  11. #486
    Tends to be difficult JL25and3's Avatar
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax Teller View Post
    This would be an awful idea. Regardless of his performance, he would keep himself in the lineup & it's a lot to assume he'd be performing at a high level to justify it.
    That's how Pete Rose did it. He was playing for the only manager who would still put him in the lineup.
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  12. #487

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by JL25and3 View Post
    That's how Pete Rose did it. He was playing for the only manager who would still put him in the lineup.
    I was only 2 when he played his last game, so obviously I don't know other then his baseball-reference page. Did his performance justify him being a regular in the lineup?

    (serious question)

  13. #488
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax Teller View Post
    I was only 2 when he played his last game, so obviously I don't know other then his baseball-reference page. Did his performance justify him being a regular in the lineup?

    (serious question)
    No, he was putrid in his final years. But if that's what it takes to get Jeter to get the record, so be it. I've seen plenty of WS wins, I'd rather see 4,000+.
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  14. #489
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    No, he was putrid in his final years. But if that's what it takes to get Jeter to get the record, so be it. I've seen plenty of WS wins, I'd rather see 4,000+.
    I think most people are going to disagree with you on that one
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  15. #490

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    No, he was putrid in his final years. But if that's what it takes to get Jeter to get the record, so be it. I've seen plenty of WS wins, I'd rather see 4,000+.
    I got a hunch that you're going to be extremely disappointed then.

  16. #491
    Hello dum-dum... effdamets's Avatar
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    No, he was putrid in his final years. But if that's what it takes to get Jeter to get the record, so be it. I've seen plenty of WS wins, I'd rather see 4,000+.
    As much as I love Jeter and how he plays the game - this is something I wouldn't want to see at all.
    I don't know how old you are, but if you're old enough, think back to when Willie Mays was trying to hang on with the Mets back in '72 & '73.... I was brought to tears (of sadness) watching this guy make a fool of himself in the OF (and 1B)...

    Someone so great. Possibly the greatest - stumbling around in the OF, missing flyballs as if he were... you or me.
    Just awful.

    No thank you.
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  17. #492
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by effdamets View Post
    As much as I love Jeter and how he plays the game - this is something I wouldn't want to see at all.
    I don't know how old you are, but if you're old enough, think back to when Willie Mays was trying to hang on with the Mets back in '72 & '73.... I was brought to tears (of sadness) watching this guy make a fool of himself in the OF (and 1B)...

    Someone so great. Possibly the greatest - stumbling around in the OF, missing flyballs as if he were... you or me.
    Just awful.

    No thank you.
    I'm 39. I think I should have said if he can be decent, then I want to see him play in his 40's. If he's like Griffey Jr.,then no.His final years were terrible. However, I can live with .270 and the number 9 hitter.
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  18. #493

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by White Knight View Post
    I'm 39. I think I should have said if he can be decent, then I want to see him play in his 40's. If he's like Griffey Jr.,then no.His final years were terrible. However, I can live with .270 and the number 9 hitter.
    I think everyone would be fine with that but you also have to consider his position. Where would he play? He's not going to be a primary DH & he's not going to get any better as a shortstop.

  19. #494
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Jax Teller View Post
    I think everyone would be fine with that but you also have to consider his position. Where would he play? He's not going to be a primary DH & he's not going to get any better as a shortstop.
    I'll chime in on this debate.

    Basically, I see it as coming down to how Jeter performs this season and next - if he can produce reasonable numbers (say .275+ BA and 140 games), I could easily see him picking up his option, which is a very reasonable $8M.

    Give him 140 games and 4 AB per game (he's averaged 4.6 per game in his career) and we have 560 ABs. A .270 BA will generate 151 hits per year, giving him just under 3,400 hits for his career after the 2013 season. He picks up his option, has a similar year in 2014 and is sitting at around 3,550 hits at age 40.

    So, does he continue playing or not? In my opinion, no - Jeter retires at that point. He is a very proud individual and has no desire to become a player just hanging on.

    But, let's assume he, instead of producing 150 hit seasons, generates more like 180 hit seasons, getting to around 3,630 hits after the 2014 season. He is willing to accept a move to left field as a defensive position and spend more time at DH, stays healthy and continues to produce. Would he continue to play to age 43 or 45 - maybe.

    One never really knows.
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  20. #495
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by longtimeyankeefan View Post
    I'll chime in on this debate.

    Basically, I see it as coming down to how Jeter performs this season and next - if he can produce reasonable numbers (say .275+ BA and 140 games), I could easily see him picking up his option, which is a very reasonable $8M.

    Give him 140 games and 4 AB per game (he's averaged 4.6 per game in his career) and we have 560 ABs. A .270 BA will generate 151 hits per year, giving him just under 3,400 hits for his career after the 2013 season. He picks up his option, has a similar year in 2014 and is sitting at around 3,550 hits at age 40.

    So, does he continue playing or not? In my opinion, no - Jeter retires at that point. He is a very proud individual and has no desire to become a player just hanging on.

    But, let's assume he, instead of producing 150 hit seasons, generates more like 180 hit seasons, getting to around 3,630 hits after the 2014 season. He is willing to accept a move to left field as a defensive position and spend more time at DH, stays healthy and continues to produce. Would he continue to play to age 43 or 45 - maybe.

    One never really knows.
    While you believe Jeter isn't someone to just hang on, I see someone who is extremely competitive and would continue to work to get better as he ages. I can see him playing in his 40s.
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  21. #496
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by parkerstrong View Post
    While you believe Jeter isn't someone to just hang on, I see someone who is extremely competitive and would continue to work to get better as he ages. I can see him playing in his 40s.
    I agree with you that he will continue to work to get better, but I also see him as someone who will recognize when it is time to close the door on his career and move on.
    Forgive me for taking the Contrarian view

  22. #497
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Yea i think he will be sure that he goes out respectably. And there's no doubt that he will definitely pickup a batting coach position in the yanks duggout.
    I'd like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee fan

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  23. #498

    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by b0mber View Post
    Yea i think he will be sure that he goes out respectably. And there's no doubt that he will definitely pickup a batting coach position in the yanks duggout.
    Jeter doesn't impress me as a guy who will hang around in a coaching role after his playing days are over.
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  24. #499
    Larry Walker's Fanclub Rocketman's Avatar
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    Quote Originally Posted by Big_E View Post
    If he gets 181 hits in each of the next three seasons, he will pass Stan Musial for 4th all-time.

    He would still be over 600 hits away from Rose.

    Rose and Cobb each played 24 years.

    Jeter would have to average 195 hits for 6 years to beat Rose in his 24th season. I would love to see it, but it's a lot to hope for.
    Uh, way to be particularly unrealistic. Jeter hasn't even had 180 hits in a season since 2009, and has broken that number only once since 2007. Considering that you're prognosticating from 2012 till 2014, your hopes are unimaginably far beyond the realm of the most generous possibility.

    3515 is a goal worth striving to achieve. Jeter is a little less than 420 hits away from that number. If he collects around 170 this year and say near 150 next year, he'll be within spitting distance of 5th place all time through his age 40 season.

    At that point Jeter will have earned over $250 million as a player not including endorsements or any other investments that he may have made. If he wanted to retire after a successful 2014 season I certainly wouldn't blame him. Additionally, you have to think that his defense at shortstop will be unacceptable after his age 40 season. Will the Yankees play a guy who is unable to slug .350 in the corner outfield? They'll need the DH slot to rest an aging ARod, too.

  25. #500
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    Re: Derek Jeter: 3,000 Hits and Milestones

    3500 is a great goal, and regardless he knows he's a lock for the HOF. It would be nice to see him pass stan though, i just hope he can stay healthy and get a fair shot at finishing out his career to the best of his ability.
    I'd like to thank the good Lord for making me a Yankee fan

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