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  1. #1

    When will Jeter get to 3000?

    A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

    ---
    A friend asked me what Yankee tickets he should get for the best chance of seeing Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. Jeter needs 74 hits.

    I looked over Jeter's last six seasons. He got his 74th hit in team games: 65, 61, 56, 73, 61, and 57; respectively. His 74th hit came earliest in 2007, game 56, June 1st, when he was batting .328 and missed only one game. His 74th hit came latest in 2008 when he was batting .276 and missed 6 early season games.

    If Jeter misses three games (he's missed 18 early season games in the last six years), and if Jeter bats .304 (his average for the last six years to his 74th hit), he'll likely get his 74th hit in game 62. Variable batting average and games missed create a bell curve of probability that tapers from game 56 to game 69.

    Here's how the 2011 Yankee schedule shapes up, with a rough bell curve shown.

    Code:
    June 1  game 56 (wed)@ OAK   *
    June 2
    June 3  game 57 (fri)@ LA    *
    June 4  game 58 (sat)@ LA    **
    June 5  game 59 (sun)@ LA    ***
    June 6
    June 7  game 60 (tue)  BOS   ****
    June 8  game 61 (wed)  BOS   *****
    June 9  game 62 (thu)  BOS   ******
    June 10 game 63 (fri)  CLE   ******
    June 11 game 64 (sat)  CLE   *****
    June 12 game 65 (sun)  CLE   ****
    June 13 game 66 (mon)  CLE   ***
    June 14 game 67 (tue)  TEX   **
    June 15 game 68 (wed)  TEX   *
    June 16 game 69 (thu)  TEX   *
    June 17 game 70 (fri)@ CHI-NL*
    Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.
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  2. #2
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it

  3. #3

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by delv View Post
    funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it
    It would be a home game for the Yankees, so Boston wouldn't have to do anything to acknowledge it.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  4. #4

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I am glad someone else did the research on this, b/c I was wondering about this myself. Thx

  5. #5
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by sweet_lou_14 View Post
    It would be a home game for the Yankees, so Boston wouldn't have to do anything to acknowledge it.
    i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.

  6. #6

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    April 5th vs Minnesota.

  7. #7
    Re2pect Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Wow, that is very cool info. Thanks for posting this.
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  8. #8
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by delv View Post
    i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.
    I'd think so, as long as it wasn't a game winning hit or anything. I think the rivalry is more intense among the fans than the players - Jeter's certainly been around a lot of those players (e.g., Pedroia at the WBC)
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  9. #9

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I'll take Jun 15th vs TEX.

    ESPN won't report the feat for three days as it will be overshadowed by Big Papi overtaking Fisk for 134th place on the all-time doubles list.
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  10. #10
    Let's go Rangers! RhodyYanksFan's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    When you stop touching yourself at night.

  11. #11
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gusto View Post
    I'll take Jun 15th vs TEX.

    ESPN won't report the feat for three days as it will be overshadowed by Big Papi overtaking Fisk for 134th place on the all-time doubles list.


    LOL- that is hilarious. Your probably right though.
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  12. #12
    You Can't Predict It! bigjf's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I also have it as June 9th in the pool. Assuming health...

  13. #13
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I say May 23rd vs. the Toronto Blue Jays and it will be a single.
    "Losing is not my enemy, fear of losing is my enemy." - Tennis champion Rafael Nadal

  14. #14
    Trade Bait Mr.Muhozi's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    against the sawx at yankee stadium hopefully
    40 pitchers, ever, have an ERA+ of 130 or higher for their career. 15 have 140 or higher. 3 guys have 150 or higher - one is right at 150, the second place guy is at 154, and Mariano Rivera is at 205.

  15. #15
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr.Muhozi View Post
    against the sawx at yankee stadium hopefully
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  16. #16
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.
    Mays played baseball. Mantle was baseball.

  17. #17
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    hopefully it will be a game that I'll be at
    The real reason why the Yankees keep winning is cause the other team can't stop staring at the damn pinstripes

  18. #18
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    We have tickets to June 12th and 13th so I'll vote for either of those dates.

  19. #19

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I'm wondering if he gets near it in Oakland or Anaheim late May/early June, will they find an excuse to sit him until the Yanks return home againt Boston on 6/7? My gut says no...

  20. #20
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kentucky Bomber View Post
    I, and I assume everybody else, would love to see 3000 to be a big hit against Boston, but game 66 against Cleveland sings out to me. June 13 it is, although there's no guarantee that the miserable winter of 2010-11 won't postpone things. Game 66 could come 3-4 days later. It was at Wrigley Field that Jeter was named Captain in 2003. Will the drunken bleacher yuppies and cell-phonies of the North Side witness 3000? Could happen.
    He was named captain in Cincinnati.

  21. #21

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by jcs71 View Post
    I'm wondering if he gets near it in Oakland or Anaheim late May/early June, will they find an excuse to sit him until the Yanks return home againt Boston on 6/7? My gut says no...
    depends on how close it is.

    if he's, say, one or so away and there's just that last road game left before a homestand, there's probably little chance he wouldn't sit that game, whether he liked it or not.

    if he's one or two away, but smack in the middle of a road trip or just beginning one, they'll just play it through.

  22. #22
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Hitman23 View Post
    Wow, that is very cool info. Thanks for posting this.
    Ditto, I was wondering myself

  23. #23
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheJobaRules View Post
    He was named captain in Cincinnati.
    True. I was at both the first game in Cincy and in Wrigley that year and I knew he was named Captain before one of the games I attended.
    Mays played baseball. Mantle was baseball.

  24. #24
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    It will happen on June 7th.
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  25. #25
    Super Moderator PuffNettles9's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    personally Im hoping for the Cincy Series, since Ill be roadtripping it to Cincy and would love to witness history during that series. But it would be a nice present for DJ to get it on his Bday/OTD vs COL too
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