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  1. #1

    When will Jeter get to 3000?

    A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

    ---
    A friend asked me what Yankee tickets he should get for the best chance of seeing Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. Jeter needs 74 hits.

    I looked over Jeter's last six seasons. He got his 74th hit in team games: 65, 61, 56, 73, 61, and 57; respectively. His 74th hit came earliest in 2007, game 56, June 1st, when he was batting .328 and missed only one game. His 74th hit came latest in 2008 when he was batting .276 and missed 6 early season games.

    If Jeter misses three games (he's missed 18 early season games in the last six years), and if Jeter bats .304 (his average for the last six years to his 74th hit), he'll likely get his 74th hit in game 62. Variable batting average and games missed create a bell curve of probability that tapers from game 56 to game 69.

    Here's how the 2011 Yankee schedule shapes up, with a rough bell curve shown.

    Code:
    June 1  game 56 (wed)@ OAK   *
    June 2
    June 3  game 57 (fri)@ LA    *
    June 4  game 58 (sat)@ LA    **
    June 5  game 59 (sun)@ LA    ***
    June 6
    June 7  game 60 (tue)  BOS   ****
    June 8  game 61 (wed)  BOS   *****
    June 9  game 62 (thu)  BOS   ******
    June 10 game 63 (fri)  CLE   ******
    June 11 game 64 (sat)  CLE   *****
    June 12 game 65 (sun)  CLE   ****
    June 13 game 66 (mon)  CLE   ***
    June 14 game 67 (tue)  TEX   **
    June 15 game 68 (wed)  TEX   *
    June 16 game 69 (thu)  TEX   *
    June 17 game 70 (fri)@ CHI-NL*
    Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.
    I can't complain but sometimes I still do. - Joe Walsh

  2. #2
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it

  3. #3

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by delv View Post
    funny/cool thread. doing it against boston would be cool. i wonder if they'd acknowledge it
    It would be a home game for the Yankees, so Boston wouldn't have to do anything to acknowledge it.
    "Baseball is about hope, not confidence." -- rajah

  4. #4

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I am glad someone else did the research on this, b/c I was wondering about this myself. Thx

  5. #5
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by sweet_lou_14 View Post
    It would be a home game for the Yankees, so Boston wouldn't have to do anything to acknowledge it.
    i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.

  6. #6

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    April 5th vs Minnesota.

  7. #7
    let's go rangers! Hitman23's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Wow, that is very cool info. Thanks for posting this.
    Boo for trading Prado.

  8. #8
    Please, call me YFiB Yankee Fan in Boston's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by delv View Post
    i meant the players, not the organization. as in... going on the top step and applauding, etc.
    I'd think so, as long as it wasn't a game winning hit or anything. I think the rivalry is more intense among the fans than the players - Jeter's certainly been around a lot of those players (e.g., Pedroia at the WBC)
    "Welcome to NYYFans, the place where Yankees fans come together to complain about the manner in which our team is winning games" -- Mr. Coffee

  9. #9

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I'll take Jun 15th vs TEX.

    ESPN won't report the feat for three days as it will be overshadowed by Big Papi overtaking Fisk for 134th place on the all-time doubles list.
    “Everything looks nicer when you win. The girls are prettier, the cigars taste better. The trees are greener.”—Billy Martin

  10. #10
    NYYF Cy Young

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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Man View Post
    A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

    (snip)

    Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.
    Well, he's getting there, but alas, not going to do it tomorrow unless it's a ridiculous extra-innings blowout of record-breaking proportions. Sigh. The games the past two days have been totally worth being there for, even without the Jeter milestone.

    I managed to be at two games the week he broke Gehrig's record but missed the actual day that time, too. Ah well! Like Jeter, I'll be happier if they get back into 1st place than worrying over when he does it.
    SABR Publications Editor - Author FIFTY GREATEST YANKEE GAMES -
    Editor Maple Street Press YANKEES ANNUAL - http://whyilikebaseball.com

  11. #11
    NYYF MVP


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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    On the Menu rest of this homestand:

    Carrasco 4.52

    Agando 2.10
    Derek Holland 4.41
    CJ Wilson 3.09

    Stat Gurus (Derek vs. them), welcome your predictions!

  12. #12
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Jeter will go 7-for-9 as tonight's game goes 17 innings.

    Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's

  13. #13
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    - 67 hits in 61 games, 1.098 hits per game.
    - 2993 career hits, need 7 for 3000
    - At current rate, need 6.37 games to get 7 more hits
    - 7th game from now is Sunday 6/19 at Cubs

    Jeter has 259 at bats, 4.25 per game. With 4 games left at home, he would get 17 more at bats and would need to average .411 to get there before flying to chicago. On the other side, there are 10 games to be played until they come home again. So he would have 42.5 at bats with 6 hits or less in order to be at 2,999 or less when back at home against the rockies, batting 0.141

    So your choice is he has to bat over .411 (during 4 games), or below .141 (during 10 games) unless Girardi sits him, so the probability of the 3000th happening at home looks remote right now

  14. #14
    NYYF Cy Young

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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    I think Jeter would be happier if the yankees return to first place. I really don't care when he gets the 3000 hit.
    All the fat guys watch me & say to their wives, 'See, there's a fat guy doing okay. Bring me another beer. Mickey Lolich

  15. #15
    #notonemore Big_E's Avatar
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    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by GordonGecko View Post
    - 67 hits in 61 games, 1.098 hits per game.
    - 2993 career hits, need 7 for 3000
    - At current rate, need 6.37 games to get 7 more hits
    - 7th game from now is Sunday 6/19 at Cubs

    Jeter has 259 at bats, 4.25 per game. With 4 games left at home, he would get 17 more at bats and would need to average .411 to get there before flying to chicago. On the other side, there are 10 games to be played until they come home again. So he would have 42.5 at bats with 6 hits or less in order to be at 2,999 or less when back at home against the rockies, batting 0.141

    So your choice is he has to bat over .411 (during 4 games), or below .141 (during 10 games) unless Girardi sits him, so the probability of the 3000th happening at home looks remote right now
    Your math is incorrect.

    YES, he would need to hit about .411 to get the 3000th hit at home in the next 4 games.

    BUT

    he would need to hit .102 to get the hit at home, on the next homestand. See, the .141 is correct, but only considering the 10 road games. You can't forget about these 4 home games. So 17 AB at home, plus 42 on the road equals 59 AB. 6 hits in the next 59 AB would be a .1017 BA and 2999 hits.

    Fantasy Baseball: Larrupin' Lou's

  16. #16

    Jeter's 3000th Hit: Friday Night, July 8th is it!

    Jeter sits tonight, or at least part of the game. My best educated guess is that Jetes will do it Friday night In anticipation I just bought 2 tickets on StubHub before they skyrocket. They have been going UP. What will people pay to see a once in a lifetime event? No Yankee player has ever gotten 3,000 hits playing his entire career as a Yankee. I will tell my grand kids I was there. Tried to buy 2 tickets in the Main 206 section and they were gone so I bought others in Section 205 in Home Run territory. Paid $110 each on eBay. No StubHub fees.

    http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/stor...sue-3000-in-ny

  17. #17
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    Re: Jeter's 3000th Hit: Friday Night, July 8th is it!

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeter_the_Leader View Post
    Jeter sits tonight, or at least part of the game. My best educated guess is that Jetes will do it Friday night In anticipation I just bought 2 tickets on StubHub before they skyrocket. They have been going UP. What will people pay to see a once in a lifetime event? No Yankee player has ever gotten 3,000 hits playing his entire career as a Yankee. I will tell my grand kids I was there. Tried to buy 2 tickets in the Main 206 section and they were gone so I bought others in Section 205 in Home Run territory. Paid $110 each on eBay. No StubHub fees.

    http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/stor...sue-3000-in-ny
    I have a ticket to that game, and it's awfully tempting to try to sell it. Terrace seat, I bet I could get 3x face for it.

    But still, no way am I selling it.


  18. #18

    Re: Jeter's 3000th Hit: Friday Night, July 8th is it!

    the more i think about it, the more this situation is starting to tick me off. play jeter. if he sits tonight, its absolute bull and not because he needs rest but because they want him to do it at home. no other reason. if you want him to do it at home, then let him play tonight and if he bangs out 3 hits, sit him for nunez or whatever so he comes back home at 2999. i dont care if his skills are deteriorating, he is still derek jeter.

  19. #19
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    Re: Jeter's 3000th Hit: Friday Night, July 8th is it!

    Quote Originally Posted by dadrumma View Post
    the more i think about it, the more this situation is starting to tick me off. play jeter. if he sits tonight, its absolute bull and not because he needs rest but because they want him to do it at home. no other reason. if you want him to do it at home, then let him play tonight and if he bangs out 3 hits, sit him for nunez or whatever so he comes back home at 2999. i dont care if his skills are deteriorating, he is still derek jeter.
    I'm with you. I still think they kept us until 10:30 PM at that Red Sox game last month so Jeter would have a better shot at getting the hit on that homestand. The game was played before Jeter was injured.

  20. #20
    NYYF Cy Young


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    Re: Jeter's 3000th Hit: Friday Night, July 8th is it!

    In case it occurs on Thursday- remember, the season ticket holder 50% off coupons are good for Thursday and with stubhub being so expensive, it may be worth using them- got field infield seats for $117- way cheaper than SH.

  21. #21

    Re: When will Jeter get to 3000?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ram Man View Post
    A SABR colleague came up with this estimate of when Jeter may get to 3000 career hits:

    ---
    A friend asked me what Yankee tickets he should get for the best chance of seeing Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit. Jeter needs 74 hits.

    I looked over Jeter's last six seasons. He got his 74th hit in team games: 65, 61, 56, 73, 61, and 57; respectively. His 74th hit came earliest in 2007, game 56, June 1st, when he was batting .328 and missed only one game. His 74th hit came latest in 2008 when he was batting .276 and missed 6 early season games.

    If Jeter misses three games (he's missed 18 early season games in the last six years), and if Jeter bats .304 (his average for the last six years to his 74th hit), he'll likely get his 74th hit in game 62. Variable batting average and games missed create a bell curve of probability that tapers from game 56 to game 69.

    Here's how the 2011 Yankee schedule shapes up, with a rough bell curve shown.

    Code:
    June 1  game 56 (wed)@ OAK   *
    June 2
    June 3  game 57 (fri)@ LA    *
    June 4  game 58 (sat)@ LA    **
    June 5  game 59 (sun)@ LA    ***
    June 6
    June 7  game 60 (tue)  BOS   ****
    June 8  game 61 (wed)  BOS   *****
    June 9  game 62 (thu)  BOS   ******
    June 10 game 63 (fri)  CLE   ******
    June 11 game 64 (sat)  CLE   *****
    June 12 game 65 (sun)  CLE   ****
    June 13 game 66 (mon)  CLE   ***
    June 14 game 67 (tue)  TEX   **
    June 15 game 68 (wed)  TEX   *
    June 16 game 69 (thu)  TEX   *
    June 17 game 70 (fri)@ CHI-NL*
    Of course ANYTHING could happen, but I recommended he buy tickets for the Cleveland series. Saturday and Sunday should be beautiful day games.

    Not a bad guess until the DL stint... magic date - July 9th game 87 (sat) TB ***********

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